All things Caleb Durbin

[LouisEly]

Outside of a rough first half of May (.108/.195/.135), he's been very good.

April - .263/.356/.395 (0.750 OPS)

Last 28 days - .272/.372/.438 (0.810 OPS)

Someone posted an X in the Ortiz thread that he's 2nd in MLB among 3B with 6 DRS.  

I don't see a burning need to trade away assets for a 3B right now.

[Frisbee Slider]

He also seems likeable 🤷‍♂️

[sveumrules]

8 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

Outside of a rough first half of May (.108/.195/.135), he's been very good.

April - .263/.356/.395 (0.750 OPS)

Last 28 days - .272/.372/.438 (0.810 OPS)

Someone posted an X in the Ortiz thread that he's 2nd in MLB with 6 DRS.  

I don't see a burning need to trade away assets for a 3B right now.

Durbin 0.5 WAR > Williams -0.5 rWAR

Or if one prefers BRef…

Durbin 1.0 WAR > Williams -0.3 WAR

Caleb’s also been pretty clutch with his +0.98 win probability added tops among Brewers batters.

Fielding metrics are nice to see too after the loud chorus of “not a third baseman” following his acquisition.

[Samurai Bucky]

So far, so good.  Mighty Mouse is here to save the day.

One thing that so many people seem to miss is how a smaller player can contribute.  Sal, Joey, and Caleb do not need to hit dingers to be valuable to the team.  Would it be nice if they would?  Sure, but they don't have to.  As we have seen recently, they are getting the ball in play and not striking out.  Their barrel % is probably not as high, but if they are getting on base, they are putting pressure on the pitcher.

[Frisbee Slider]

I had a hunch that Durbin’s typical EV was low. 1st percentile.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/caleb-durbin-702332?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

[Turning2]

Shoot, I didn't see this thread before I posted my evaluation thread. My thoughts on him are contained there. 

I'll add here - even though Durbin does not bring the classic power production you really should have from 3B, he's been good enough to satisfy Mark's "summer of entertainment" criteria. As such, I doubt they seek to trade for a big enough upgrade to make a huge difference. The prospect cost would be too high. Had Durbin continued to flounder at the plate, maybe they would have tried to find a small upgrade. Either way, whoever ended this year at 3B is probably viewed by MIL as a placeholder until one of the multiple prospects gets a shot. 

[Turning2]

On 6/21/2025 at 10:49 AM, Samurai Bucky said:

So far, so good.  Mighty Mouse is here to save the day.

One thing that so many people seem to miss is how a smaller player can contribute.  Sal, Joey, and Caleb do not need to hit dingers to be valuable to the team.  Would it be nice if they would?  Sure, but they don't have to.  As we have seen recently, they are getting the ball in play and not striking out.  Their barrel % is probably not as high, but if they are getting on base, they are putting pressure on the pitcher.

True, you don't have to hit dingers to be valuable. The reality of today's ball though is you need a good amount of dinger hitters to compete for a championship. There may be an outlier, but I can't recall a team built largely upon young, light hitting, small, fast, solid defense winning a WS.

[Samurai Bucky]

5 hours ago, Turning2 said:

True, you don't have to hit dingers to be valuable. The reality of today's ball though is you need a good amount of dinger hitters to compete for a championship. There may be an outlier, but I can't recall a team built largely upon young, light hitting, small, fast, solid defense winning a WS.

The only thing I found was how many home runs were hit during the year by world series champions.  The 2015 Royals hit 139, the Giants hit 132 in 2014 and 103 in 2012 (wow).  There are some others that were between the 100 and 150 mark since 1990.  I agree that the majority of teams pound the ball better than the Brewers.  I don't know how many of the teams below were young, though.

I asked Copilot to help come up with a list of WS Champs and the number of regular season home runs since 1990.  I tried pasting it into the message but it looked weird.  So, here is a picture 🙂

 

[Jim French Stepstool]

On 6/21/2025 at 10:45 AM, sveumrules said:

 

Fielding metrics are nice to see too after the loud chorus of “not a third baseman” following his acquisition.

That was my first concern, but I've been pleasantly surprised. He certainly doesn't possess the arm strength you'd like a 3B to have for some of the tougher throws, but seems to have a knack for getting rid of the ball quickly & he's been accurate. For someone who 'profiles' as more of a 2B I don't see much to complain about re the glove work.

[Jim French Stepstool]

6 hours ago, Turning2 said:

Shoot, I didn't see this thread before I posted my evaluation thread. My thoughts on him are contained there. 

I'll add here - even though Durbin does not bring the classic power production you really should have from 3B, he's been good enough to satisfy Mark's "summer of entertainment" criteria. As such, I doubt they seek to trade for a big enough upgrade to make a huge difference. The prospect cost would be too high. Had Durbin continued to flounder at the plate, maybe they would have tried to find a small upgrade. Either way, whoever ended this year at 3B is probably viewed by MIL as a placeholder until one of the multiple prospects gets a shot. 

I said this once before---after watching Durbin for several weeks I see him as one of these guys who might hit .260 or so, but with an OBP about 100 pts higher. And there's value there. Plus the ball he hit out of the yard on Tuesday was an eye-opener. Really got on top of a pitch up in the zone & mashed it.

Let someone else overpay for a McMahon (see Cubs; Chicago). 

[folly412]

Either pre-season, when he got called up, or when he looked like a Little Leaguer at the plate, would anyone not have signed up for a .667 OPS and excellent defense at third at this point?

[Turning2]

8 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

That was my first concern, but I've been pleasantly surprised. He certainly doesn't possess the arm strength you'd like a 3B to have for some of the tougher throws, but seems to have a knack for getting rid of the ball quickly & he's been accurate. For someone who 'profiles' as more of a 2B I don't see much to complain about re the glove work.

Pleasantly surprised - same here. He's not going to go wide to his right, way past the line and come up with a rocket to throw a guy out, but he's made pretty much the bulk of what else you expect/need. 

[Turning2]

14 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

I said this once before---after watching Durbin for several weeks I see him as one of these guys who might hit .260 or so, but with an OBP about 100 pts higher. And there's value there. Plus the ball he hit out of the yard on Tuesday was an eye-opener. Really got on top of a pitch up in the zone & mashed it.

Let someone else overpay for a McMahon (see Cubs; Chicago). 

I see him as an adequate band aid / placeholder destined to be a solid value bench / utility player once the thumper prospects arrive. There is no good reason to pursue McMahon unless you want to burn a couple prospects and spend a boatload of payroll for a minimal upgrade. If McMahon had a reliable history of hitting 15-20 HRs, with a career batting average around .275+ and was affordable for a couple years, I'd pull the trigger. He's not. That guy was Alec Bohm - who was briefly rumored as being on the trade block last offseason (maybe true, maybe not). After a slow start, Bohm is currently hitting .280 and 7 HRs at the midway point. That would look a helluva lot better at 3B than either Durbin or McMahon. But as it is, I'm content with Durb. This year is for developing experience and setting the table for the wave of prospects set to arrive in a couple years in my opinion. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

13 minutes ago, Turning2 said:

I see him as an adequate band aid / placeholder destined to be a solid value bench / utility player once the thumper prospects arrive. There is no good reason to pursue McMahon unless you want to burn a couple prospects and spend a boatload of payroll for a minimal upgrade. If McMahon had a reliable history of hitting 15-20 HRs, with a career batting average around .275+ and was affordable for a couple years, I'd pull the trigger. He's not. That guy was Alec Bohm - who was briefly rumored as being on the trade block last offseason (maybe true, maybe not). After a slow start, Bohm is currently hitting .280 and 7 HRs at the midway point. That would look a helluva lot better at 3B than either Durbin or McMahon. But as it is, I'm content with Durb. This year is for developing experience and setting the table for the wave of prospects set to arrive in a couple years in my opinion. 

That guy was Bohm, provided we were willing to pony up whatever the cost would've been. I suspect he would've been a little rich for our blood AFA the prospect captial demanded, but we'll never know.

Assuming a Wilkin (or someone else) moves him off his spot, I agree Durbin would look awfully good as an extra piece.

[sveumrules]

1 minute ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

That guy was Bohm, provided we were willing to pony up whatever the cost would've been. I suspect he would've been a little rich for our blood AFA the prospect captial demanded, but we'll never know.

Rumors were the Phillies asked for Mason Miller from the A's, or one of George Kirby/Logan Gilbert from the Mariners. If those were indeed their asks, Bohm was never realistically available.

His -49 DRS at 3B is also the worst of the 2020's (Devers is 2nd worst at -41 DRS), so I'd guess that precludes him from consideration for the Brewers too. Especially considering his bat is more good (108 wRC+ from 2023-25) than anything special or difference making.

[Turning2]

41 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

That guy was Bohm, provided we were willing to pony up whatever the cost would've been. I suspect he would've been a little rich for our blood AFA the prospect captial demanded, but we'll never know.

Assuming a Wilkin (or someone else) moves him off his spot, I agree Durbin would look awfully good as an extra piece.

He would have cost about $8 mill / year for a couple years. Philly needed a closer, MIL had one they were intent on shopping. It was largely a match made in trading heaven. It wouldn't have been a 1 for 1, would have needed some sweetener from MIL, but I think it would have been worth it depending on the prospect cost. Bohm's defense gets bagged on, but I'd take lesser defense at third for more power and production from the corner infield. Who has won a WS lately where top defense at 3B was viewed as a larger part of the success than the offense that the position and / or team generated? Defense is great, but reality is the thump wins championships in modern MLB.

[sveumrules]

2 minutes ago, Turning2 said:

but I'd take lesser defense at third for more power

Bohm would offer more power than Durbin, sure, but he is still below average overall with a 96 ISO+ since 2023 which ranks 117th out of 173 hitters with at least 1,000 PA over that stretch.

Despite his imposing stature Alec is more of a singles/doubles hitter with a 112 AVG+ that ranks 33rd out of those same 173 hitters with at least 1,000 PA since 2023. His 262 singles over that stretch are tied for 13th, his 86 doubles are 10th, his 42 home runs are only 92nd.

[Turning2]

6 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Bohm would offer more power than Durbin, sure, but he is still below average overall with a 96 ISO+ since 2023 which ranks 117th out of 173 hitters with at least 1,000 PA over that stretch.

Despite his imposing stature Alec is more of a singles/doubles hitter with a 112 AVG+ that ranks 33rd out of those same 173 hitters with at least 1,000 PA since 2023. His 262 singles over that stretch are tied for 13th, his 86 doubles are 10th, his 42 home runs are only 92nd.

I don't speak the new stat/metric language, so I prefer the K.I.S.S (keep it simple stupid) metrics LOL.

If presented as a "True / false" - Bohm will hit more homeruns and for better average than Durbin this year?  Based off Bohm's proven track record, it is a fairly safe bet that the answer is true. Obviously, that doesn't factor in defense. I think this is where WAR enters the conversation, and that's a metric I discount for what I've read its supposed to be a measure of. 

Bohm certainly isn't the classic big power bat at 3B. But the Brewers can never afford a guy like that unless they develop them in house (who was the last 30+HR 3B the Brewers drafted / developed?).  Instead, Bohm is that happy medium that occasionally lands within the price range of a small market team during certain windows of opportunity. Last year seemed like a rare aligning of those conditions. Didn't happen. So be it. 

 

[sveumrules]

9 minutes ago, Turning2 said:

If presented as a "True / false" - Bohm will hit more homeruns and for better average than Durbin this year?

Sure, that would be a true but so far this year Bohm has a .280 average and .319 on base percentage.

Durbin only has a .236 average, but since he will take a walk his .318 on base percentage is right in line with Bohm's.

Since they reach base at around the same clip, then it comes down to if Bohm's not that great power (96 ISO+ is below MLB average) and extra $7M in salary is more valuable than Durbin's speed and defense.

[edfunderburk]

On 6/21/2025 at 10:30 AM, LouisEly said:

I don't see a burning need to trade away assets for a 3B right now.

Agreed … let’s hold steady with the team we have unless an other-worldly bat becomes available unexpectedly 

[edfunderburk]

2 hours ago, Turning2 said:

I see Durbin as an adequate band aid / placeholder destined to be a solid value bench / utility player once the thumper prospects arrive.

Agreed …

[edfunderburk]

4 hours ago, Samurai Bucky said:

The only thing I found was how many home runs were hit during the year by world series champions.  The 2015 Royals hit 139, the Giants hit 132 in 2014 and 103 in 2012 (wow).  There are some others that were between the 100 and 150 mark since 1990.  I agree that the majority of teams pound the ball better than the Brewers.  I don't know how many of the teams below were young, though.

I asked Copilot to help come up with a list of WS Champs and the number of regular season home runs since 1990.  I tried pasting it into the message but it looked weird.  So, here is a picture 🙂

I still can’t believe there was no World Series in 1994 … I remember being supremely disappointed in Selig & MLB. I believe the Expos had a great record when the strike began & ultimately led to a cancelled season because of greed. Still disturbs me 31 years later.

 

[edfunderburk]

4 hours ago, Samurai Bucky said:

The only thing I found was how many home runs were hit during the year by world series champions.  The 2015 Royals hit 139, the Giants hit 132 in 2014 and 103 in 2012 (wow).  There are some others that were between the 100 and 150 mark since 1990.  I agree that the majority of teams pound the ball better than the Brewers.  I don't know how many of the teams below were young, though.

I asked Copilot to help come up with a list of WS Champs and the number of regular season home runs since 1990.  I tried pasting it into the message but it looked weird.  So, here is a picture 🙂

 

I still can’t believe there was no World Series in 1994 … I remember being supremely disappointed in Selig & MLB. I believe the Expos had a great record when the strike began & ultimately led to a cancelled season because of greed. Still disturbs me 31 years later.

[Rock hard Brouhard]

11 hours ago, Turning2 said:

True, you don't have to hit dingers to be valuable. The reality of today's ball though is you need a good amount of dinger hitters to compete for a championship. There may be an outlier, but I can't recall a team built largely upon young, light hitting, small, fast, solid defense winning a WS.

While it pains me to say it, the 1982 Cardinals fits that description. I think they had 67 home runs all season.

[Turning2]

13 hours ago, Rock hard Brouhard said:

While it pains me to say it, the 1982 Cardinals fits that description. I think they had 67 home runs all season.

Ironic isn’t it.