2025 Magic Number Thread

[formerlybis]

Just to catch up a little bit, the magic number to clinch a postseason spot is, I believe, 9,

For the 1-seed, it’s 20, and that’s the Phillies. Any MKE win in this series would knock an extra magic number off due to tiebreakers.

You’re all up to speed with the division at 19.

We’re (likely) going to start eliminating several teams over the next week. ATL is next at 2. 

[Jimbo]

"Hey, Nineteen"

[HarryDoyle]

19 hours ago, RedStickBrew said:

I'll breathe easier if we can manage to eliminate the Cardinals.

[Brian]

To help out the Brewer worry wort's, Brewers are up, +10 1/2 games from getting knocked out of a wild card spot. So 

[HarryDoyle]

25 minutes ago, Brian said:

To help out the Brewer worry wort's, Brewers are up, +10 1/2 games from getting knocked out of a wild card spot. So 

I don't think anyone is worried about missing the postseason completely. It's just some people, including the players and manager, don't think a division championship is a foregone conclusion. 

[BruisedCrew]

Actually the Brewers are 15 1/2 games away from falling out of a playoff spot.

They are 10 1/2 games ahead of the Mets, who are currently in the 6th playoff spot and 14 1/2 games ahead of the Reds who are in the 7th spot. But, the Brewers have clinched the tiebreakser over the Reds. They are also 15 1/2 games ahead of the Giants, to whom they would lose the tiebreaker.

None of the "worry warts" are concerned about the Brewers missing the playoffs completely. But they are legitimately concerned that the Brewers might not win the division and will give up the advantages that go with it. After having a 9 game lead just two weeks ago, losing the division would be a massive disappointment for many fans

[Brian]

3 minutes ago, HarryDoyle said:

I don't think anyone is worried about missing the postseason completely. It's just some people, including the players and manager, don't think a division championship is a foregone conclusion. 

Just so we don't trash our pitchers in the mean time because that is not a good recipe for a post season run either. 

[CheezWizHed]

Please keep the Magic number posts focused on the numbers. Plenty of other places to discuss concerns, bad decisions, etc..

[BruisedCrew]

On 9/1/2025 at 5:13 PM, formerlybis said:

Just to catch up a little bit, the magic number to clinch a postseason spot is, I believe, 9,

For the 1-seed, it’s 20, and that’s the Phillies. Any MKE win in this series would knock an extra magic number off due to tiebreakers.

You’re all up to speed with the division at 19.

We’re (likely) going to start eliminating several teams over the next week. ATL is next at 2. 

Magic numbers can get a little goofy when you do them this far out. It’s easy to calculate the magic number to guarantee finishing ahead of a team. And you subtract one every time your team wins and the other team loses. 

But to clinch a spot you have to eliminate every other team. So, using the playoff magic number, every Brewer win lowers the number against everyone, but a loss by the Reds would lower the magic number to eliminate them, but wouldnt affect the number to eliminate the Giants.

If you’re saying that 9 is the highest magic number the Brewers have to guarantee finishing ahead of all of the teams currently out of playoff position, I think that’s right. But it’s not as simple as the traditional “Any combination of Team A wins and Team B losses.”

Technically the magic number you are using to clinch the division is really the number to guarantee that the Brewers finish ahead of the Cubs. I think it’s safe to assume that the Cardinals (current magic Number of 7) will be eliminated long before the other number gets close to 0.  

The magic number to clinch the number 1 seed is less clear because the Cubs, Phillies, and Dodgers are all challengers for that. 

 

[formerlybis]

3 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

The magic number to clinch the number 1 seed is less clear because the Cubs, Phillies, and Dodgers are all challengers for that. 

 

20 is the magic number for the Phillies at the moment and they are the closest pursuer. Any combo of wins by the Brewers and losses by each individual contender that equals at least 20 for each team means the Brewers get the 1-seed.

I get what you are saying, though, because of the jockeying amongst the contenders, If a team overtakes the Phillies as the closest competitor, I would use the magic number for that team.

Would it be better to do a "race for the 1-seed" and list the magic number for each challenger? It's 19 for the Cubs and 18 for the Dodgers (and you could throw in 16 for the Padres, given they have a reasonable shot at the division). 

[BruisedCrew]

1 hour ago, formerlybis said:

Would it be better to do a "race for the 1-seed" and list the magic number for each challenger? It's 19 for the Cubs and 18 for the Dodgers (and you could throw in 16 for the Padres, given they have a reasonable shot at the division). 

I think it would be simpler and clearer to focus on magic numbers to guarantee a finish ahead of each team instead of for a position. 

The magic number to get the 1 or 2 seed really gets clunky when you take into account that winning the division is a necessary condition. You just have to know that the Brewers have to finish ahead of the Cubs and at least 1 of the other division winners to get a bye  

I would include both the Padres and Mets (now 13) on the list because their positions are relevant to playoff seeding, which folks will be watching in the last week or two  and they are both in hailing distance of their division leads, especially because the Mets and Phillies still have head to head games  

 

[SomewhereInTime]

10 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

Actually the Brewers are 15 1/2 games away from falling out of a playoff spot.

They are 10 1/2 games ahead of the Mets, who are currently in the 6th playoff spot and 14 1/2 games ahead of the Reds who are in the 7th spot. But, the Brewers have clinched the tiebreakser over the Reds. They are also 15 1/2 games ahead of the Giants, to whom they would lose the tiebreaker.

None of the "worry warts" are concerned about the Brewers missing the playoffs completely. But they are legitimately concerned that the Brewers might not win the division and will give up the advantages that go with it. After having a 9 game lead just two weeks ago, losing the division would be a massive disappointment for many fans

The Brewers would likely clinch a postseason spot even if they lost every single game in September, anyone worried about that just doesn't understand math.

[formerlybis]

Braves have been eliminated. 

Marlins are next, but not sure if the number is 3 or 2 (it’s likely 2, but head to head was even at 3-3 - doesn’t matter much).

[HarryDoyle]

30 minutes ago, formerlybis said:

Braves have been eliminated. 

Marlins are next, but not sure if the number is 3 or 2 (it’s likely 2, but head to head was even at 3-3 - doesn’t matter much).

They couldn't have waited a couple more days?

[nate82]

[RedStickBrew]

 

 

[nate82]

[RedStickBrew]

 

[Yaz19]

[SomewhereInTime]

[SomewhereInTime]

 

[torts]

On 9/1/2025 at 5:45 PM, HarryDoyle said:

I'll breathe easier if we can manage to eliminate the Cardinals.

Maybe we can eliminate them next weekend 🤣

[SeaBass]

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

For #18, I chose Mr. Nerd Power himself, Eric Sogard

#17 is a tough one, since it has been "unofficially" retired for Jimmy Gantner. But here's the player who wore it previously to Gumby, Kenny McMullen. McMullen was a solid 3B who ended his career as a part-time player for the 1977 Brewers.

 

[formerlybis]

Magic Numbers:

CHI & PHI 17, LAD 15, SD 13 (tiebreaker not settled, Brewers are 1-2 against them with 3 yet to play), NYM 11, SF 8, AZ, CIN, & STL 6 (tiebreaker with STL not settled, 6 more games), & MIA 1.

In my way of thinking, the magic number for:

1. the division is 17 against the Cubs. Need this first
2. the 1-seed is also 17 against both the Phillies and Cubs - again, have to have the division first
3. clinching the postseason is 8, currently against the Giants