Packers 2025 preseason

[BrewerFan]

34 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

I'm really interested to see what Hafely is going to do here to move Parsons around. 

• Rotating Gary, LVN, and Parsons at DE like they normally would with their top 3, of course. 
• Pass rush with a DL of Gary, Wyatt, LVN, and Parson on obvious passing downs. - LVN moving inside to pass rush like Z-Smith used to do. 
• DL of Gary, Wyatt, Wooden, LVN with Parson, Walker, and Cooper at LB - Probably more of a 3-4 front.
  • Seriously - Parsons, Walker, and Cooper at LB... That has to be a blitz package nightmare for our opponents. 

Ironically, I wonder if drafting Oliver was already going in this direction.  Not that I'm comparing Parsons and Oliver in quality, but more in size and how they can be used. 

A couple interesting stats;

Since Parsons has come into the league, he's been EITHER #1 or #2 every year in Pass Rush Win/Loss Rate.
Last year he was #1 in that metric, 30.2%
Last year he was #1 in Pressure percentage, he was at 16.8%

He's been #1 or #2 in the in those 4 metrics sine entering the league.

 

With Parsons on the field, the Cowboys are #1 in the NFL in defense THE LAST 4 YEARS. 
When Parsons was off the field, the Cowboys were DEAD LAST in defense. 

The Packers rushed 4 the majority of the time, played zone Defense. They were 23rd in pressures with 4 players. 
When the Packers rushed 5, they were #1. 
That last figure is largely due to Edgerrin Cooper's blitzing ability(I'm mostly going off a ESPN show where they spit out a lot of facts, though opinions ranged from "Great trade for the Packers," to "The Packers robbed the Cowboys here!"

 

To put a final... pin in this, I think drafting Oliver was very much because they wanted a guy who could be a speed rusher off the edge. 

Schefter said they were in on all the players who were RUMOED to be available or at least checked in on Garrett, Crosby, Hendrickson, Watt, Kayvon Thibodeaux even as he was apparently going to be behind Burns and Abdul Carter on the depth chart(this made the least sense to me). Plus, given their pursuit of Mack and then subsequent signings of both Preston and Za'darius Smith, it tells you how badly they want that dominant edge. 

Also, from most reports, NFC Executives said they thought there were a lot of teams that would have beaten this deal still. Detroit is where I thought he'd go given ALL their cap space+a couple really good DTs. With Parsons and Hutchinson, that would have been a deadly defense. 

 

The ONLY thing I can think of in hindsight is...it would have been nice to keep Slaton given how this all played out with some of the guys like Grant gone before Rd2, adding Clark to the deal, etc... but they can make moves later. Hell,, they can sign Christian Wilkins if they wanna get crazy! He should not cost a lot but was an AP caliber player before last year with the Raiders. 

But hell, maybe we did offer him more. Maybe they love Stackhouse and guys like Johnathan Ford or Mike Pennell are available during the season. So if that becomes a problem, Gutey will solve it. 

 

[LouisEly]

12 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

The ONLY thing I can think of in hindsight is...it would have been nice to keep Slaton

I was talking with a friend about this tonight.  My concern is the interior rush defense.  Best way to neutralize a great pass rush is to run the ball down their throat.  If they can't stop the run, the pass rush won't mean much.

I get that the cap is increasing.  To have two players tie up 1/3rd of the cap, when you have 22 positions to fill on both sides of the ball, is still a little concerning.  One serious injury to Love and this can blow up.

That being said, it's a gamble worth going for.  Put IDL on the early list for priorities for their 2nd round pick next year.

[Joseph Zarr]

Just watched the Micah introductory presser. I did not realize how Giannis-like competitive he is. He came across extremely likable. Gutey says they feel very good about their DT group. I'm kind of like: Pennel and Wilkins are both just sitting out there as FA. I don't know what it would take to sign either and, well, Watkins might actually be a real life weirdo. Gutey didn't address that part of the question Andy Herman asked (ie will you look to add to the DT group from outside the room) but I do wonder if the firm belief they have in Wooden/Brooks/Wyatt/rooks isn't just GM speak. Pennel would be a perfect vet addition.

[BrewerFan]

2 hours ago, LouisEly said:

I was talking with a friend about this tonight.  My concern is the interior rush defense.  Best way to neutralize a great pass rush is to run the ball down their throat.  If they can't stop the run, the pass rush won't mean much.

I get that the cap is increasing.  To have two players tie up 1/3rd of the cap, when you have 22 positions to fill on both sides of the ball, is still a little concerning.  One serious injury to Love and this can blow up.

That being said, it's a gamble worth going for.  Put IDL on the early list for priorities for their 2nd round pick next year.

To the first point... that's a huge concern. My concern on defense WAS CB because... we just didn't have the guys out there(or as of now, I may be surprised by Nixon, Hobbs, Melton seems like an actual CB and Valentine). I love the safeties including Bullard though... not sure as a slot. But, NOW that group is good enough. If you don't have a great pass rush, you need a great secondary. If you don't have a great secondary, a great pass rush makes a good one great. This should make Valentine and company look MUCH better and we already know what these safeties were already among the best. 

But then I thought the Run D may be a problem without Slaton. I don't believe he was the best run stuffer in the league last year per say. Stats can be misleading(nobody would take Slaton in short yardage over Vita Vea or Dexter Lawrence) but he was very good and I though he'd been very good. 

 

With regard to the Cap... we're really not paying Parsons and Love 1/3rd of the Cap. If you take his AAV, sure, but we know how the Cap works. This is a 3 year deal and then we restructure. Even then, if we want to move off him or trade him(hypothetically) the cap hit is small.

Cap hit;

2025-9.97M
2026-19.23M
2027-26.84M

2028-64.2M Dead Cap-17.6M
2029-68.2    Dead Cap-8.8M 

So those are the cap hits.
Salary cap 2025= 279.2  
Cap is expected to grow at about 9-10% per year. Lets be conservative though
So that means 2026 the cap is ~300M growing to again, pretty conservatively, 380 by 2030. 

Love and Parsons will be 39.5M in 2025 279.2M 
55M in 2026 - Conservative cap of 300M
70M in 2027-  Cap of ~325
-----------------

The year both Love and Parson's dead cap hits drop and they'll be restructuring or... 

140M in 2028-Cap ~350
-------
Love's contract is up. So they're going to restructure before Love has a 75M cap hit and Parsons a 65M cap hit for both.

 

And again, those are very conservative estimates. I think it's more likely the cap is closer to
2026-304
2027-331
2028-364
2029-397
2030-432

-And that's without 

We're out of the Covid era and the NFLPA "repaying," the losses the owners took.

TV contract of 111 Billion dollars with the NFL get an opt out in 2029 and they take in another 500M this year on the redzone package and they now have a 10% share of ESPN.

This is partially why I think the packers were willing to eat 36M in dead cap space for Clark and Jaire and give Parsons a 4 year 188M extension(the EXTENSION is a big deal here as well as it makes the total deal 5 years 209M and ~41.8M per year). 

 

So...sorry, I know they say brevity is the soul of wit, but... lets be fair, Hamlet was crazy... plus, I've never been accused of having much wit, BUT... my point is, the number looks big because it IS big, but these numbers ALWAYS look massive and then the Cap goes up

Just go back 4-5 years. Even Bakhtiari. We made him the highest paid ever and THEN Covid came and shut everything down, the cap stalled and it didn't grow as it was expected to. 

Wirfs just got 5 years and 140M with ~90GTD

You could go further and see how Edge contracts were crazy when they hit 25M a year and then 30 and this year they just blew past 30 to 34, to 40.5M AAV. 

 

They know the Cap is going keep flying, sports are driving Live TV and everyone wants the NFL. 

This won't ever be 1/3rd of their salary cap. Not even when you get to the craziest, end of the contract, Love 75M, Parsons 65M... both of which are there to force a restructure(or trade/cut). 

[BrewerFan]

15 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

Just watched the Micah introductory presser. I did not realize how Giannis-like competitive he is. He came across extremely likable. Gutey says they feel very good about their DT group. I'm kind of like: Pennel and Watkins are both just sitting out there as FA. I don't know what it would take to sign either and, well, Watkins might actually be a real life weirdo. Gutey didn't address that part of the question Andy Herman asked (ie will you look to add to the DT group from outside the room) but I do wonder if the firm belief they have in Wooden/Brooks/Wyatt/rooks isn't just GM speak. Pennel would be a perfect vet addition.

To the first point, I'm very biased, but he was a Wrestler. I actually saw him at a B1G duel this year watching the most dominant team in ALL College sports, the Penn State Wrestling team. 

He loves it and he's a fanatic and he could have been a great HWT... but he quit(guess there was a few more dollars taking the FB route🤑)

 

The last part in bold, Pennel would be PERFECT. Brooks is a light DT who plays hard but cannot move men or hold like others and Wilkins(I'm assuming you mean Christian Wilkins) was a superstar who has had a weird year+, but for the price? Can't beat it. But give me Pennel a I'd be thrilled.

I SO wish we'd gone after Cailis Campbell. He'd also be a good fit. He can still play the run and rush the passer(though Father time will catch up sooner or later). 

Still, Pennel would be great... and seems like he loved it here;

https://lombardiave.com/ex-packers-mike-pennel-dropped-heartfelt-tribute-green-bay-vets

[Joseph Zarr]

13 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

To the first point, I'm very biased, but he was a Wrestler. I actually saw him at a B1G duel this year watching the most dominant team in ALL College sports, the Penn State Wrestling team. 

He loves it and he's a fanatic and he could have been a great HWT... but he quit(guess there was a few more dollars taking the FB route🤑)

 

The last part in bold, Pennel would be PERFECT. Brooks is a light DT who plays hard but cannot move men or hold like others and Wilkins(I'm assuming you mean Christian Wilkins) was a superstar who has had a weird year+, but for the price? Can't beat it. But give me Pennel a I'd be thrilled.

I SO wish we'd gone after Cailis Campbell. He'd also be a good fit. He can still play the run and rush the passer(though Father time will catch up sooner or later). 

Still, Pennel would be great... and seems like he loved it here;

https://lombardiave.com/ex-packers-mike-pennel-dropped-heartfelt-tribute-green-bay-vets

Yes, I did mean Christian Wilkins. I certainly did not mean DT Sammy Watkins😅. Maybe the Clemson streams crossed.

[BrewerFan]

Just now, Joseph Zarr said:

Yes, I did mean Christian Wilkins. I certainly did not mean DT Sammy Watkins😅. Maybe the Clemson streams crossed.

I was also a little off on Wilkins. I thought he was more of a pass rusher as a DT... but he's not. 

Quote

 

New Raiders acquisition Christian Wilkins was an all-around force for the Miami Dolphins over the past few seasons. He has the fourth-best PFF run-defense grade among all interior defenders over the past two seasons and racked up a career-high 61 quarterback pressures in 2023.

Wilkins actually didn’t hit free agency coming off his best season, but his two campaigns before that were among the league’s best.

 

 

PFF Write up going into LAST year. So give me either and I'll be thrilled.  

And what the hell, lets wait until the Giants start off 0-5 and then see if they'll part with Dexter Lawrwence. I'd go full Milwaukee Bucks and trade all the firsts to get a 1970s like Rams front 4!

[OldHeidelberg]

6 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

 

Cap hit;

2025-9.97M
2026-19.23M
2027-26.84M

2028-64.2M Dead Cap-17.6M
2029-68.2    Dead Cap-8.8M 

So those are the cap hits.
Salary cap 2025= 279.2  
Cap is expected to grow at about 9-10% per year. Lets be conservative though
So that means 2026 the cap is ~300M growing to again, pretty conservatively, 380 by 2030. 

Love and Parsons will be 39.5M in 2025 279.2M 
55M in 2026 - Conservative cap of 300M
70M in 2027-  Cap of ~325
-----------------

 

 

I know where you got these numbers but they don't make sense to me, at least the dead and cap saving numbers. He has $130 million guaranteed that has to hit somewhere. In general, I do agree with you about the cap though. Not talking about anyone here specifically but a lot of people still treat it like it was 10-15 years ago before the massive annual increases and cap rollover. You can get in trouble, and the rise of guaranteed money is concerning but it only takes a season to get out of cap hell and the Packers have always been good at managing it anyways.   

[OldHeidelberg]

It occurs to me that if this indeed means we are going to let some guys like the Walker's, Doubs, Rhyan, and Enegbare walk next offseason we may make up some of the lost draft capital in comp picks in 27. The Vikings went on a trade up binge a couple of drafts ago with future comp picks in mind.

[GAME05]

9 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

So if that becomes a problem, Gutey will solve it. 

Check out the hook while MlF revolves it.

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, OldHeidelberg said:

I know where you got these numbers but they don't make sense to me, at least the dead and cap saving numbers. He has $130 million guaranteed that has to hit somewhere. In general, I do agree with you about the cap though. Not talking about anyone here specifically but a lot of people still treat it like it was 10-15 years ago before the massive annual increases and cap rollover. You can get in trouble, and the rise of guaranteed money is concerning but it only takes a season to get out of cap hell and the Packers have always been good at managing it anyways.   

When they announce the GTD money, they don't always do a good job of differentiating the "GTD against injury," vs "GTD against skill," 

I know some of the money is Guaranteed against injury but not skill. Which... if we got into that, this trade would be a disaster. 

Parsons has an option bonus in '27 and '28 for 38M and 34M.

I think this is more accurate and the option bonuses are actually also Guaranteed. 

This would make more sense. There are 38 and 34M option bonuses that are fully guaranteed that they can spread out like a signing bonuses(they likely serve as the groundwork for an extension)...

Looks to me like it really just serves to keep the cap hits down early on in the deal... which doesn't really matter too much as they have a lot of cap space and it rolls over, but they likely want to keep cap room so they can have room to maneuver. Hey, Clowney is still available! Which...I'm obviously kidding, but Mike Pennel or Christian Wilkins are both DTs I'd be looking at. What's scary about Wilkins is that he missed almost all of last year and got cut despite being one of the best DTs in Football because of a Jones fracture. 

It's making me think Jayden Reed should just go ahead and get it surgically fixed and come back later in the season as he doesn't look good and we're going to need him, but separate topic. 

Anyway;

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/72392/micah-parsons/contract/cap

So you see the option bonus. That appears to be spread over 5 years. I'm guessing they'll have to restructure after 3 years, roll that into a Signing Bonus and then spread that AND the signing bonus out another 5 years. In 3 years, you're likely looking at 60M for the top Edge rusher anyway, so... maybe they don't, who knows. Eventually, there will come a time to pay the piper, but... if you have cash, you can ALWAYS work around it. Cash for signing bonuses and void years.

BUT, for these purposes; 

The dead cap is going to probably be more like;

2028 38M+34M.. though I don't think the 34 in '28(for the '29 season) is fully GTD vs skill, just injury so, I think that's partially guaranteed(but I could be wrong). 

I'm mixing and matching but I found this and I'm trying to work it out. 

I get what he's saying, 1/3 of our salary cap taking up by two players, , but you can't just add two players AAV and then divide that by the cap. If they don't do ANYTHING with the contracts, then...there's going to be one helluva cap hit in Love's last year, but they both have the same agent and they'll extend both or they'll... I don't know, split the cap hit up over 2 years and if they absolutely need to, but as you said, it takes one year and you can get over that.

 

 

To your point, we've seen this. We remained competitive during a MUCH worse cap situation than this. about half our cap was dead hits. THIS year our dead cap is as much Parsons and Love. We'll be fine though. 

Quote

Micah Parsons signed a four year, $186 million contract extension with the Packers following a trade from the Dallas Cowboys. $136 million is guaranteed of which $120 million is fully guaranteed at signing. The new money guarantee is $112 million. Parsons will receive a $44 million signing bonus and his 2025 salary is fully guaranteed. His 2026 salary and a $38 million option bonus are fully guaranteed at signing. A $34.443 million 2027 option is also fully guaranteed. The contract has annual per game and workout bonuses. The max value of the contract is $188 million. Contract details come via  report by Tom Pelissero.

https://overthecap.com/player/micah-parsons/9476

[homer]

I hope none of you bought a Matthew Golden jersey (or Emmanuel Wilson for that matter):

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/green-bay-packers-news/70216/green-bay-packers-news-matthew-golden-jersey-number-change

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I personally think they chose to ship Clark out because they believe they found a gem in Stackhouse. I am not worried about the run. Can't lock in on any one of Cooper, Parsons or Gary. Those DTs will have a lot of liberty. 

[HarryDoyle]

5 hours ago, homer said:

I hope none of you bought a Matthew Golden jersey (or Emmanuel Wilson for that matter):

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/green-bay-packers-news/70216/green-bay-packers-news-matthew-golden-jersey-number-change

I did not because I only do defense, but I was smart enough to wait before buying a Parsons #11 jersey.

[BrewerFan]

On 8/30/2025 at 9:19 AM, GAME05 said:

Check out the hook while MlF revolves it.

I 100% thought about writing something about Vanilla Ice...totally brought me back to...I don't know, maybe when I was like...5 years old and that was constantly on MVP.

Edit-*MTV... I'm thinking about what they'll name Jordan Love after the season when we win 14 games with a defense that keeps taking the ball back! 

 

 

 

 

[True Blue Brew Crew]

23 hours ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

I personally think they chose to ship Clark out because they believe they found a gem in Stackhouse. I am not worried about the run. Can't lock in on any one of Cooper, Parsons or Gary. Those DTs will have a lot of liberty. 

They traded Clark because Dallas insisted on him. The Packers weren't looking to move on from Clark and that was obvious by the structure of the contract he had for this year. Buuuut when you can get Micah Parsons if you're willing to include Clark, you do it every day and twice on Sunday and accept the sunk cost

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

They traded Clark because Dallas insisted on him. The Packers weren't looking to move on from Clark and that was obvious by the structure of the contract he had for this year. Buuuut when you can get Micah Parsons if you're willing to include Clark, you do it every day and twice on Sunday and accept the sunk cost

Well... that's what they said. Jerry Jones also said he thinks this makes their team better. 

This trade was SUCH a bad move by Dallas. If you're looking at teams that want that edge and have a good DT, I'd be on the phone with the Lions. They so badly want a stud opposite of Hutchinson and they have Alim McNeil who is 24 and... I think a better player at this point than Clark. And even if he's not, he's over years younger. 

Maybe Detroit wasn't willing to do that(it'd be a massive cap hit for them this year). 

 

I don't think we were looking to give up on Clark, but I also thought looking ahead to next year, there were two guys who were probably not going to be back without a change to their contract. Clark and Jenkins. Jenkins has a ~25M cap hit and just under 5M in dead cap and I thought Clark was set to make over 30 and would have had a 14M dead cap hit...

 

[GAME05]

Latest cope from Cowboys-fan co-worker: "I'm glad he's gone."

Coyboys wanted a premium player. So unless you're talking Bullard or Williams or LVN, of that bunch Clark is probably the most expendable. Good person aside, he's geriatric by Packers' standards and was probably going to be a cap casualty after this season, anyway. Graded out pretty much exactly League-average for both run defense and pass rush. I really can't think of a less-hurtful premium player for the Packers to lose. Subtract the fandom and he's probably the most ideal player to have to let go of.

[BrewerFan]

6 hours ago, GAME05 said:

Latest cope from Cowboys-fan co-worker: "I'm glad he's gone."

Coyboys wanted a premium player. So unless you're talking Bullard or Williams or LVN, of that bunch Clark is probably the most expendable. Good person aside, he's geriatric by Packers' standards and was probably going to be a cap casualty after this season, anyway. Graded out pretty much exactly League-average for both run defense and pass rush. I really can't think of a less-hurtful premium player for the Packers to lose. Subtract the fandom and he's probably the most ideal player to have to let go of.

Of course they are! And they'd be celebrating had they re-signed him. 

I never really considered this. In fact, I was exchanging private messages with a guy who works with NFL athletes training them(He's just starting, he's got a few down in Florida). Didn't know Micah, but is  diehard Packers fan. 

I asked him about the Micah rumors and he Sent me a voice message saying;

Yeah, it'd be awesome, but players like that are NEVER traded and the Packers don't work like that.

 

From one of the most boring Training Camps in a LONG time to immediately one of the most excited as the Packers just VERY possibly traded for the BEST player in NFL History to be traded... in his prime. 

 

https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/top-10-biggest-trades-nfl-history-where-does-micah-parsons-deal-rank

 

The NFL has never seen a trade like this. And we did it for two 1sts and Kenny Clark. And if we want, we'll probably be able to sign Clark after this year again!

[HarryDoyle]

19 hours ago, GAME05 said:

Latest cope from Cowboys-fan co-worker: "I'm glad he's gone."

Coyboys wanted a premium player. So unless you're talking Bullard or Williams or LVN, of that bunch Clark is probably the most expendable. Good person aside, he's geriatric by Packers' standards and was probably going to be a cap casualty after this season, anyway. Graded out pretty much exactly League-average for both run defense and pass rush. I really can't think of a less-hurtful premium player for the Packers to lose. Subtract the fandom and he's probably the most ideal player to have to let go of.

 

[Strike4]

On 8/30/2025 at 9:19 AM, GAME05 said:

Check out the hook while MlF revolves it.

Ice, Ice, Bowl 

[BrewerFan]

On 8/29/2025 at 11:41 PM, LouisEly said:

I was talking with a friend about this tonight.  My concern is the interior rush defense.  Best way to neutralize a great pass rush is to run the ball down their throat.  If they can't stop the run, the pass rush won't mean much.

I get that the cap is increasing.  To have two players tie up 1/3rd of the cap, when you have 22 positions to fill on both sides of the ball, is still a little concerning.  One serious injury to Love and this can blow up.

That being said, it's a gamble worth going for.  Put IDL on the early list for priorities for their 2nd round pick next year.

Did ANY part of you think Colby Wooden was going to be at least a big PART of the answer to that run defense issue?

Colby Wooden, some thought he'd be a better fit as a 4-3 DE. He was an athletic, 6'4 ~270LB DL coming out. He looks like a 295 DL who still has that quickness and his PFF grade may not be great, but he has been holding up at the point. 

 

I still think there's going to be a game or games that the other team sticks with the run and it can be an ugly game, but... I thought, particularly vs Detroit, it'd be a problem. Also, their whole "revamped OL," is a bit exaggerated. They did lost a stud. Glasnow is a good veteran, Mahogany was outstanding for them when he played last year and Ratledge is going to be very good. We just made them look bad!

 

As long as they can play with Energy and tackle like they have been, with 7-8 Packer jersey's rallying, I feel pretty good... though, Barkley and the Igles still pose a problem. I see they've spoken very highly about Brinson vs the run, but... we'll see.