Cardinals at Brewers; Sunday, September 14 @ 1:10 p.m.: Jose Quintana (3.88 ERA, 4.86 FIP) vs. Miles Mikolas (4.84 ERA, 4.89 FIP)

[SeaBass]

3 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I guess. There’s nothing guaranteeing that we’re going to be able to just flip a switch in a couple weeks.

Well I think the idea is that if they keep playing around .500 baseball their chances in the playoffs won't be great no matter who they play or what their seed is. So they better flip the switch or it's going to be an early exit again regardless.

[nate82]

3 hours ago, Brian said:

Not sure how a farewell letter should be written. Has to be a hard letter to wright. 

It feels very AI generated but then again so do a lot of things now.

[Jim French Stepstool]

6 minutes ago, Brian said:

Quintana calf injury now I heard in post game. 

Not good news, but if any starter develops an owie he would be my choice. Not to disparage the work he's done, but it's unlikely he starts in the postseason & even as a BP arm you have three LHP working out of the pen now, plus Gasser throwing well in Nashville. Worst case you're looking to cover maybe two starts. 

 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I really don't think how a team is playing on September 14th has much to do with how they'll play in the playoffs. I don't think how a team plays in games 158-162 tells anyone very much either. We can play the vibes game (there's not much else to do other when you're up 5.5 with 12 to play), but that's mostly just to pass the time.

We played a mediocre series and won 2 of 3, after playing a slightly better series and getting swept. That's the name of the sport.

Some poor defense from Jackson really cost Q in the 2nd, and then there was the bad break of Frelick's throw hitting the runner. We didn't get the big hit, and there's your ballgame.

On the bright side, this looks, on paper, like our week to make a move. Phillies are out west, including a series against the Dodgers. Dodgers have to play seven games, with their other series against the in-the-thick-of-it Giants. Cubs also play seven games (after having to lean on their bullpen quite a bit against Tampa), including four against the in-the-thick-of-it Reds and three tough pitching matchups in Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, we get some favorable pitching matchups against the Angels and then go to Saint Louis.

If we gain 1.5 on the Cubs this week, we win the division. Even if we lose 2.5, the magic number would be 4 heading into the final six. Nobody wants any part of that latter scenario, but it does illustrate how much this next week crunches things. We play a good week, and this thing gets put to bed.

[wibadgers23]

I wonder where we rank as a team hitting with RISP since our 14 game win streak ended?  We have to be near the bottom of the league.  To me, that is the biggest difference between then and now.  Just not coming up with those clutch hits.  I'm not going to complain too much about taking two of the three from Cardinals though.  Gotta beat up on the Angels next.

[Jim French Stepstool]

27 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

 

We played a mediocre series and won 2 of 3, after playing a slightly better series and getting swept. That's the name of the sport.

 

That's actually spot-on. It illustrates how maddening this game can be. Watched a little of Texas-Mets today & the Rangers are still playing really solid baseball.

[BruisedCrew]

5 hours ago, Bulldogboy said:

Hoskins has to be thinking what am I even doing here. 

I would say he’s collecting a lot of money looking forward to the playoffs and planning for free agency. . 

[BruisedCrew]

3 hours ago, Bulldogboy said:

So. You're telling me we are playing Jake Bauers veteran journeyman over the 3rd overall pick who saved our season and the second highest paid player on the team because he's our best defensive 1st baseman despite the fact you kicked him off the roster last season and nobody wanted him? OK I guess. 

No. I’m telling you that the Bauers and Monasterio situations are not the same.

Bauers has been hitting well, so against a RHP he’s a logical choice because he provides as much of a chance as Hoskins or Vaughn to have success at the plate AND he’s better than either of them defensively. 

With Monasterio over Ortiz you are accepting a clear downgrade defensively in exchange for what you hope might be an upgrade offensively. 

[willie key]

1 hour ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

I really don't think how a team is playing on September 14th has much to do with how they'll play in the playoffs. I don't think how a team plays in games 158-162 tells anyone very much either. We can play the vibes game (there's not much else to do other when you're up 5.5 with 12 to play), but that's mostly just to pass the time.

We played a mediocre series and won 2 of 3, after playing a slightly better series and getting swept. That's the name of the sport.

Some poor defense from Jackson really cost Q in the 2nd, and then there was the bad break of Frelick's throw hitting the runner. We didn't get the big hit, and there's your ballgame.

On the bright side, this looks, on paper, like our week to make a move. Phillies are out west, including a series against the Dodgers. Dodgers have to play seven games, with their other series against the in-the-thick-of-it Giants. Cubs also play seven games (after having to lean on their bullpen quite a bit against Tampa), including four against the in-the-thick-of-it Reds and three tough pitching matchups in Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, we get some favorable pitching matchups against the Angels and then go to Saint Louis.

If we gain 1.5 on the Cubs this week, we win the division. Even if we lose 2.5, the magic number would be 4 heading into the final six. Nobody wants any part of that latter scenario, but it does illustrate how much this next week crunches things. We play a good week, and this thing gets put to bed.

And we have to fly out west next week?    You can’t be ****** around thinking this is over.    The cubs will decide if this over.   If they win 5 or 6 games this week.   It isn’t over.   We need them to lose some games.    We basically needed a miracle to win a series.     The switch has been flipped off for awhile now

[Bulldogboy]

1 hour ago, BruisedCrew said:

No. I’m telling you that the Bauers and Monasterio situations are not the same.

Bauers has been hitting well, so against a RHP he’s a logical choice because he provides as much of a chance as Hoskins or Vaughn to have success at the plate AND he’s better than either of them defensively. 

With Monasterio over Ortiz you are accepting a clear downgrade defensively in exchange for what you hope might be an upgrade offensively. 

You hope? I would be an upgrade offensively I'm pretty sure give or take a few walks.

[Bulldogboy]

20 minutes ago, willie key said:

And we have to fly out west next week?    You can’t be ****** around thinking this is over.    The cubs will decide if this over.   If they win 5 or 6 games this week.   It isn’t over.   We need them to lose some games.    We basically needed a miracle to win a series.     The switch has been flipped off for awhile now

They better hope Skenes game is a loss against Pirates. 

[RobertCrawley]

2 hours ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

I am kinda fine with them farting around a bit for another week and a half. Then come out of it when it really starts to matter.

IF they can get it cranked up again.

[Jim French Stepstool]

 

I think the mods on this board need to take the money earned from the Caretaker Fund & ads, and stash it in an account used to pay for anxiety counseling.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

1 hour ago, willie key said:

And we have to fly out west next week?    You can’t be ****** around thinking this is over.    The cubs will decide if this over.   If they win 5 or 6 games this week.   It isn’t over.   We need them to lose some games.    We basically needed a miracle to win a series.     The switch has been flipped off for awhile now

Your account has to be satire at this point.  You have been saying this for a month and they haven't gained any ground. It's not happening buddy. 

[adambr2]

3 hours ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

At this point I trust Murphy. I think (hope) it's all strategic.  

I'd prefer #1 but #2 is not that big of a deal. The division is what you need and that's a formality at this point. We're getting to close to where Philly is running out of time too though. They're going out West now for 6 games, 3 with LAD who has every reason to win those games. I think Philadelphia has at least 4 losses in them. In that scenario, a .500 finish lets us hold the pole position. 

I would say I'm more interested in how we look the last few days of the season, but given that we will have a big layoff anyway, I'm not even sure that matters.

I definitely don’t think Philly is running out of time. The lead went from 5.5 to 2 in a matter of 6 days. 2 weeks is nothing to erase 2 games. It’s just a matter of whether they can keep up the momentum they’ve had in September because they do have a tough west coast trip coming up.

[adambr2]

1 hour ago, willie key said:

And we have to fly out west next week?    You can’t be ****** around thinking this is over.    The cubs will decide if this over.   If they win 5 or 6 games this week.   It isn’t over.   We need them to lose some games.    We basically needed a miracle to win a series.     The switch has been flipped off for awhile now

They are not Juiy hot right now but they’ve won 2 out of their last 3 series and 3 out of their last 5 so saying they basically need a miracle to win a series might just be a tad on the embellishing side at the moment.

[BruisedCrew]

53 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

You hope? I would be an upgrade offensively I'm pretty sure give or take a few walks.

Monasterio doesn’t have enough of a track record to tell you what he would be like as a hitter if he played full time.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

11 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I definitely don’t think Philly is running out of time. The lead went from 5.5 to 2 in a matter of 6 days. 2 weeks is nothing to erase 2 games. It’s just a matter of whether they can keep up the momentum they’ve had in September because they do have a tough west coast trip coming up.

They're running out of time in the sense that their margin of error quickly becomes non-existent because there is no tomorrow. If they drop 2 the Dodgers and the Brewers win the next 2 they are suddenly 4 back in the loss column without a tiebreaker and 10 games to play. 

People don't seem to grasp that 5 games up with 6 weeks left isn't the same as 5 games with 12 games left. The fact is Philadelphia is going to lose more games. Any kind of lead at this point in the year is significant. When you essentially need to gain 3 games when there are only 12 left, that's significant. Your odds shrink significantly every night you lose. 

[adambr2]

8 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

They're running out of time in the sense that their margin of error quickly becomes non-existent because there is no tomorrow. If they drop 2 the Dodgers and the Brewers win the next 2 they are suddenly 4 back in the loss column without a tiebreaker and 10 games to play. 

People don't seem to grasp that 5 games up with 6 weeks left isn't the same as 5 games with 12 games left. The fact is Philadelphia is going to lose more games. Any kind of lead at this point in the year is significant. When you essentially need to gain 3 games when there are only 12 left, that's significant. Your odds shrink significantly every night you lose. 

Well again that’s why it comes down to whether they continue to do what they’ve been doing. I think everyone understands the shrinking margin for error as the games become fewer. They’ve lost 3 games in September. If they lose 3 more that’s probably going to be good enough.

[Jim French Stepstool]

9 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Well again that’s why it comes down to whether they continue to do what they’ve been doing. I think everyone understands the shrinking margin for error as the games become fewer. They’ve lost 3 games in September. If they lose 3 more that’s probably going to be good enough.

I might be wrong, but I suspect there are people on here who DON'T understand the shrinking margin, or don't get the significance of it.

Anyway, it's a nice time for LA to (apparently) get their ship righted.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

9 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

I might be wrong, but I suspect there are people on here who DON'T understand the shrinking margin, or don't get the significance of it.

Anyway, it's a nice time for LA to (apparently) get their ship righted.

Took the words out of my mouth. I can name at least 2. 

[adambr2]

11 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

I might be wrong, but I suspect there are people on here who DON'T understand the shrinking margin, or don't get the significance of it.

Anyway, it's a nice time for LA to (apparently) get their ship righted.

Maybe. If there’s a series left in the season, then a 2 game lead is obviously hugely significant. With 2 weeks left, I really don’t think it amounts to much.

So yes I hope we can take care of business against the Angels and perhaps the Dodgers can take 2 out of 3 against Philly because even gaining a game in the next series would be very big.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Worrying about 1v2 feels kind of silly. Especially in baseball where it's a huge assumption that the NLCS is 1v2. 

The bye is a very tangible advantage. I'd rather be #1, but I am not stressing about being #2. 

[yourout]

1 hour ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

Worrying about 1v2 feels kind of silly. Especially in baseball where it's a huge assumption that the NLCS is 1v2. 

The bye is a very tangible advantage. I'd rather be #1, but I am not stressing about being #2. 

Same here.

[adambr2]

11 hours ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

Worrying about 1v2 feels kind of silly. Especially in baseball where it's a huge assumption that the NLCS is 1v2. 

The bye is a very tangible advantage. I'd rather be #1, but I am not stressing about being #2. 

I’m not stressing about it at all. I have been saying for weeks that the 1 would be nice, but the difference between 2 and 3 is massive compared to 1 and 2. Bypassing the WC round is the important thing. Especially if we are still scuffling toward the end of the season to get that rest and reset.

You’d like to have a potential Game 7 of the NLCS to be in Milwaukee instead of Philly, but there’s about 20 other things that have a bigger chance of deciding the series.

Could draw the Mets as a 2 seed in the NLDS and I’d love another shot at them. 

I will say, I am not sure why you would say it’s largely assumed that the NLCS would be 1 versus 2. That’s almost NEVER the case. I don’t think it has been the case since 2018 and not once since MLB expanded to 6 playoff teams.