Joey Ortiz is Becoming Almost Unplayable—and the 'Almost' is Fading Fast

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

It took a few hard weeks for Joey Ortiz to get accustomed to shortstop. His glove work wasn't strong there over the first month of his sophomore season. Since then, though, it's been very good, and that's been enough to keep him in the lineup whenever he's been healthy this year. The Brewers believe firmly in good defense and good baserunning—so much so that they're willing to play a poor hitter, as long as they meet those standards and play a position where defense really matters. In Ortiz's case, it certainly does.

Still, the rubber is close to meeting the road right now. Ortiz is batting .230/.242/.262 in September, after returning quickly from a hamstring strain. His bat speed is down, and his attack angle—a sign of whether he's getting level with the incoming pitch on time or not—is down, even relative to his lowest-in-baseball standard. He's unfortunately prone to hitting his best batted balls either on the ground or in the air to the opposite field, where they're not as likely to carry out of the park. He has a fragile offensive profile, and right now, that profile is shattered on the ground. His lone extra-base hit this month was a ground-ball triple. His lone walk came almost three weeks ago, and was a four-pitch slopfest amid a miniature meltdown by Pirates hurler Carmen Mlodzinski. He's not doing anything well at the plate right now, and there's little sign that he's going to improve soon.

On the other hand, Andruw Monasterio has remained admirably warm, despite being sent to the bench again when Ortiz returned from his injury. Monasterio has barely played this month—just as he barely played before mid-July—but overall, he's batted .362/.397/.594 since August 1, in 73 plate appearances. He's not that caliber of hitter, of course, but he's a much more competent one than the current version of Ortiz. While he's not as good a fielder as Ortiz, Monasterio has proved himself playable at short, too. At some point, the question becomes unavoidable: might the team elect to play the hot hand over the steadier glove, when the NLDS begins next week?

Milwaukee's defensive phalanx is an indispensable part of their team identity. They're unlikely to want to compromise it when the stakes are highest, especially with their pitching staff likely to be a bit diminished by injuries. To play Monasterio over Ortiz, they'd have to be confident that the former can play shortstop well enough to make the loss of the latter feel inconsequential. Monasterio has a better bat, and indeed, Ortiz has been almost an automatic out lately. The Crew can no more afford those extra outs on offense than they can afford to miss opportunities for outs on defense. Because they trust Ortiz's glove so much more than Monasterio's, though, the chance that they'll go to their journeyman backup still feels remote. It will be interesting to watch each player over the final four games of the season, to whatever extent Monasterio gets into them and is allowed to demonstrate his offensive superiority to Ortiz. Both players will appear during the upcoming series, and clever substitutions might allow Pat Murphy to make the most of them without choosing one over the other. When writing out each day's lineup card, though, he does have to choose.

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[Turning2]

They platoon Bauers more at 1B lately because of the "hot bat" thing, but yet seem reluctant to do the same with Mona at SS. That indicates they value Joe O's gold glove-esque defense and poor offense more than they view a hot bat and average SS play. 

[Samurai Bucky]

I think the drop off defensively would be more of a detriment.  

Ortiz's range (overall) is at 98% (scored as a 13) according to Statcast.  He excels at coming in on the ball.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/joey-ortiz-687401?stats=statcast-r-fielding-mlb#statcast-fielding-run-value

Monasterio's range (overall) looks to be 50, but he doesn't qualify from what it looks like.  His score is a 1 (and also a 1 at SS).

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/andruw-monasterio-655316?stats=statcast-r-fielding-mlb#statcast-fielding-run-value

I have seen Monasterio in person play at short and miss balls that Ortiz would have been able to get.  Yes, Ortiz continually pops up or strikes out when the bases are loaded, but I would (begrudgingly) be more comfortable with that than having hard balls get by Monasterio at short.

An imperfect world, for sure.  Maybe Sal and Brice can work with Joey in the off season.

[Sixtolezcano]

The new Ray Oyler, Dal Maxvill, Bobby Wine or Ed Brinkman.    
 

[Brian]

5 hours ago, Samurai Bucky said:

I think the drop off defensively would be more of a detriment.  

Ortiz's range (overall) is at 98% (scored as a 13) according to Statcast.  He excels at coming in on the ball.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/joey-ortiz-687401?stats=statcast-r-fielding-mlb#statcast-fielding-run-value

Monasterio's range (overall) looks to be 50, but he doesn't qualify from what it looks like.  His score is a 1 (and also a 1 at SS).

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/andruw-monasterio-655316?stats=statcast-r-fielding-mlb#statcast-fielding-run-value

I have seen Monasterio in person play at short and miss balls that Ortiz would have been able to get.  Yes, Ortiz continually pops up or strikes out when the bases are loaded, but I would (begrudgingly) be more comfortable with that than having hard balls get by Monasterio at short.

An imperfect world, for sure.  Maybe Sal and Brice can work with Joey in the off season.

Also, at the plate Ortiz last 15 games he has been 12 for 40 which is exactly a .300 avg.  Good very time for him to maybe get hot at the plate. 😊

[Sugarrayray]

In a given series I think there will be a batted ball, maybe 2 in a 4 game series, that Ortiz gets to that Andruw may not. But in that series, that’s 12 to 16 plate appearances of Ortiz’ worst-in-league offense. It’s hard to cover up for a black hole like that in the playoffs on a team that is totally bereft of big boppers. 
 

Some of Ortiz’s pathetic swing decisions and chases in this series against the Padres bordered on disrespectful to his team and coaching staff. I am shocked Murph played him after his at-bats the first game of the series.

 

He is a really good defender. But really, to play every single day on a division leading or plus team, bringing the worst offense in the league, you should pretty much be the best defender at your position in the league. I don’t even think he’s a top 5 defensive short stop.

So happy they have shortstops in the pipeline ti replace him soon, if not next year.

[Randall Buchek]

Play Monasterio over Ortiz.  You must be kidding.  Ortiz's defense is superior to Monasterio.  I will take the defense over Monasterio's weak bat anytime.

[Team Canada]

56 minutes ago, Randall Buchek said:

Play Monasterio over Ortiz.  You must be kidding.  Ortiz's defense is superior to Monasterio.  I will take the defense over Monasterio's weak bat anytime.

Welcome!

Also, "you must be kidding" isn't a productive response. Presumably the post and thought was serious, so treat it as such and avoid the condescending remark. It's a valid debate to have.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, Randall Buchek said:

Play Monasterio over Ortiz.  You must be kidding.  Ortiz's defense is superior to Monasterio.  I will take the defense over Monasterio's weak bat anytime.

Ortiz has had three months this season with an OPS in the 400s, including September. There comes a point when it ceases to matter how good a guy's defense is, it can't overcome 200 points of OPS.

[Jim French Stepstool]

For whatever reason, when this is brought up I think of the 2018 WS, when we fell short by one game. LA & Boston were the participants. LA had Logan Forsythe & a 39-yr-old Chase Utley sharing 2B, and the Dodgers would've been happy had either approached Ortiz' current offensive numbers. When necessary, they would be PH for..

I don't recall the names, but Boston had two guys share the C job, and both were weak offensively.

My point is, sure it would be great if Ortiz was hitting .280 for the year, or Cooper Pratt was playing well beyond his years & could come up here & be productive, but teams can have someone with an exceptional glove swinging a sub-par bat & still be successful. The teams I mentioned had a pretty good collection of hitters to offset a weak link, sure. But I'm pretty certain we aren't going to come anywhere close to approximating that by replacing Ortiz' bat with Monasterios, not to mention the defensive downgrade.

As long as he's healthy I expect Ortiz to be the guy throughout the post-season, and I agree with that. They'll PH for him if it's a later inning & they're trailing.

[Snoebird]

This season could very well come down to the question of who did the Brewers miss more, Willy Adames or Garrett Mitchell. The weakest defensive position this season has been center field, and I think most of us would rather see Jackson Chourio in left rather than center. So, the balance that needs to be struck includes center field as well as shortstop. Perkins or Collins? Ortiz or Monasterio? I would lean toward defense if the top of the order is producing, and use pinch hitters when trailing. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

16 hours ago, Brian said:

Also, at the plate Ortiz last 15 games he has been 12 for 40 which is exactly a .300 avg.  Good very time for him to maybe get hot at the plate. 😊

I was ready to say a few games ago that he was looking better at the plate, but he promptly proceeded to put up some ugly ABs.

Watching him, I really think he needs to find that fine line where he's keeping the shoulders & hips tucked in & trying to drive the ball to RF, while at the same time laying off pitches that are TOO FAR outside. That isn't easy. If he can lock into that then he might get balls to pull, like the GS he hit vs the Mets that seemed like it was about a century ago.

[igor67]

46 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Ortiz has had three months this season with an OPS in the 400s, including September. There comes a point when it ceases to matter how good a guy's defense is, it can't overcome 200 points of OPS.

On the plus side October is a brand new month.