Byron Buxton

[Brewcrew82]

Buxton might be softening his "Twin for Life" stance and be willing to move to a contender as part of the Twins' ongoing teardown. 

His contract is more than the Brewers are used to for a non-Yeli player, but still quite reasonable over the next three seasons for the production. Remains a well above average defender in OF (100th percentile speed!) and can DH against LHP even with Yeli in the fold. And obviously the bat would PLAY in the Brewers lineup. Health always a concern, but the Brewers have really solid depth options in Collins, Mitchell, and Perkins, to cover for any IL stints. 

This could be your Lorenzo Cain in 2018 move imo. 

Thoughts (cc. @Brock Beauchamp)?

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-rumors-trades-free-agency-dodgers-mets-yankees-braves-ketel-marte-diamondbacks-byron-buxton-twins/

[Brock Beauchamp]

Buxton's contract is SUCH a steal. Yeah, he's injured a lot, but he's so good when he's on the field. I'd love to see him go to the Brewers. It'd be wild to see him in that uniform.

[Madhawk23]

What do we think would be a fair trade package to offer for Buxton?  He's such an interesting case, because when he's been healthy he's been fantastic.  But, staying healthy has just been so difficult for him.  

[Madhawk23]

Would a package of Pena, Henderson, Adamczewski and Mitchell be enough to get the Twins to consider? 

I've got to think the Made is untouchable, and with Buxton's injury history - there's simply no way I'm including him in this deal.  

[wallus]

27 minutes ago, Madhawk23 said:

Would a package of Pena, Henderson, Adamczewski and Mitchell be enough to get the Twins to consider? 

I've got to think the Made is untouchable, and with Buxton's injury history - there's simply no way I'm including him in this deal.  

Too much.

Brewers:

Buxton (BTV: 19)

Twins:

Adamczewski (BTV: 8.4)

Adams (BTV: 6.8)

Yoho (BTV: Unavailable)

I don't like trading Adamczewski but I think we need to hang onto starting pitching.

[Madhawk23]

1 minute ago, wallus said:

Too much.

Brewers:

Buxton (BTV: 19)

Twins:

Adamczewski (BTV: 8.4)

Adams (BTV: 6.8)

Yoho (BTV: Unavailable)

I don't like trading Adamczewski but I think we need to hang onto starting pitching.

If that's all it took to get a guy like Buxton on the Brewers, I've got to imagine that Arnold would have already made that deal (along with about 15-20 other MLB teams).  Something tells me that it'll take quite a bit more than that package.  

[wallus]

1 minute ago, Madhawk23 said:

If that's all it took to get a guy like Buxton on the Brewers, I've got to imagine that Arnold would have already made that deal (along with about 15-20 other MLB teams).  Something tells me that it'll take quite a bit more than that package.  

He hasn't possibly been open to a trade until now so there was nothing to discuss...

Zero chance a guy like Pena would get moved in a trade for Buxton.

[Madhawk23]

10 minutes ago, wallus said:

He hasn't possibly been open to a trade until now so there was nothing to discuss...

Zero chance a guy like Pena would get moved in a trade for Buxton.

Valid point....but I still think it would take much more to get Buxton if he is now open to a trade.  

[wallus]

2 minutes ago, Madhawk23 said:

Valid point....but I still think it would take much more to get Buxton if he is now open to a trade.  

Fair enough. I think he is a good target if he is open to a trade. He would fit in with our clubhouse and is an injury prone outfielder as a bonus!

[tmwiese55]

This is one I think they should be trying on.   Lots of things that make sense making it a fit and the rare contract price/length that MKE can take on. 

If Woodruff leaves you could try to expand into Ryan too. 

[Madhawk23]

14 minutes ago, wallus said:

Fair enough. I think he is a good target if he is open to a trade. He would fit in with our clubhouse and is an injury prone outfielder as a bonus!

I absolutely agree that I'd go all-in on Buxton if he truly is open to a trade. He's exactly the type of impact bat that this lineup is really missing - assuming of course that you could keep him healthy!  

[TURBO]

1 hour ago, Madhawk23 said:

Would a package of Pena, Henderson, Adamczewski and Mitchell be enough to get the Twins to consider? 

I've got to think the Made is untouchable, and with Buxton's injury history - there's simply no way I'm including him in this deal.  

That first sentence scares the bejesus out of me.  No way I am including Pena or Adamczewski in that deal if we have to pay Buxton's entire contract.  Nope, I wouldn't do it.  That is way too much to offer for a guy that might only play 100 games for the next 3 years, or less for that matter.

The second sentence makes me laugh.  If Buxton plays a guaranteed 140 games per season the next 3 years, no way I still include Made in this deal...  

[TURBO]

Buxton's contract is very reasonable, but I can't see the injury risk being something we are willing to take on...

[Brock Beauchamp]

5 hours ago, Madhawk23 said:

Would a package of Pena, Henderson, Adamczewski and Mitchell be enough to get the Twins to consider? 

I've got to think the Made is untouchable, and with Buxton's injury history - there's simply no way I'm including him in this deal.  

Made is too much, for sure. Maybe Pena and a low-minors guy? Though the Twins might want someone in the high minors. I’m not sure what they’re doing over there, not sure they know what they’re doing over there either. 

[TURBO]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Made is too much, for sure. Maybe Pena and a low-minors guy? Though the Twins might want someone in the high minors. I’m not sure what they’re doing over there, not sure they know what they’re doing over there either. 

Nope, Pena has more value than that imo.

[Brock Beauchamp]

16 minutes ago, TURBO said:

Nope, Pena has more value than that imo.

Buxton has been worth 8.7 fWAR over the past two seasons. He’s not going to be traded for filler. 

[Jopal78]

35 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Buxton has been worth 8.7 fWAR over the past two seasons. He’s not going to be traded for filler. 

I think his trade value is probably close to zero. A player that while extremely talented has  played in more than 92 games just 3 times in 11 years. That sort of unreliability probably makes him a no for the vast majority of teams right off the bat. Then the notion of giving up premium assets to get a player whose availability is a complete mystery… won’t happen.  
 

The truth is  Buxton’s more likely to miss 35 games in 2026 with injuries than he is to hit another 35 homers next year.  I’m sure if the Twins ate most of his contract they could unload him, but outside of Preller I can’t see a GM taking any sort of gamble on Buxton, especially as he enters his mid 30s.
 

 

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Buxton has been worth 8.7 fWAR over the past two seasons. He’s not going to be traded for filler. 

Yeah I don't get the sentiment of people saying Twins would need to eat money to get a good return. $15M a year of an injury prone Buxton is fair value at worst and more realistically it's a bargain. He's put up under 3 fWAR 2 times in the last 7 years and one of those years was the 60 game season in 2020. 

[KCBrewerfan34]

The Brewer package mentioned above the Twins would have to include Ryan. Would Buxton even waive his no trade for Milwaukee???

[Brock Beauchamp]

8 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

I think his trade value is probably close to zero.

I'm sorry, but this is absurd. He makes $15m a season, and has been worth close to nine wins over the past two seasons. William Contreras is the only Brewers player who has posted similar value over that time.

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm sorry, but this is absurd. He makes $15m a season, and has been worth close to nine wins over the past two seasons. William Contreras is the only Brewers player who has posted similar value over that time.

It doesn’t matter. Does 9 wins above replacement mean anything when it’s the playoffs and he’s already done for the year with injuries? Or if his team misses the playoffs by a game and Buxton missed 30 games that season. How much is a player worth that you can’t count on to be available? It’s not hard to figure out. 
 

WAR is nice for fans and  all but I can assure you front offices look at more than salary and WAR in forming their opinions of players.

Look, if he’s got a 9 WAR the last 2 years and is on a steal of a contract as you say. Why are the Twins considering moving him? His production and guarantee are not the reason the team sucks. Thus, it has to be his unreliability.

Unfortunately, it’s the decades worth of unreliability that’s going make him a No to most of the teams; and when nobody’s interested what does that do to the trade value?

[Brock Beauchamp]

32 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

It doesn’t matter. Does 9 wins above replacement mean anything when it’s the playoffs and he’s already done for the year with injuries? Or if his team misses the playoffs by a game and Buxton missed 30 games that season. How much is a player worth that you can’t count on to be available? It’s not hard to figure out. 

WAR is nice for fans and  all but I can assure you front offices look at more than salary and WAR in forming their opinions of players.

Look, if he’s got a 9 WAR the last 2 years and is on a steal of a contract as you say. Why are the Twins considering moving him? His production and guarantee are not the reason the team sucks. Thus, it has to be his unreliability.

Unfortunately, it’s the decades worth of unreliability that’s going make him a No to most of the teams; and when nobody’s interested what does that do to the trade value?

Teams are moving in the other direction, just look at the Dodgers. They're targeting upside with injury risk over lesser stability. Of course, Los Angeles can afford to lean that direction in a way other teams cannot, but baseball is largely coming around to the idea that it's more valuable to have a guy who absolutely dominates when they're healthy than a guy who is pretty okay but plays 150 games a year.

Because if your goal is the postseason, you want to roll the dice on that upside being healthy and available when the time comes.

[Scooterfletcher]

Pratt can be included in a Buxton deal as the top 50/100 guy.   But we shouldn’t and won’t include Made or Pena.

[Brock Beauchamp]

32 minutes ago, Scooterfletcher said:

Pratt can be included in a Buxton deal as the top 50/100 guy.   But we shouldn’t and won’t include Made or Pena.

I don't know if Pratt is enough, and the secondary pieces would need to be a lot better in that case.

[tmwiese55]

In today's world of top top prospects not being traded (other than by SD) I would think Made and Pena are essentially off limits to anyone that would be feasible for us.