Why Milwaukee Brewers Should Trade for Boston Red Sox Star Jarren Duran

[Telemachus Rafaelidys]

Image courtesy of © Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

The 2025 Brewers ended the season with the majority of their roster locked down for 2026, and coming off a season with the most wins in baseball, that is a good thing. However, it does make it harder to identify obvious positions to upgrade. With William Contreras locked in at catcher; the Andrew Vaughn/Jake Bauers combo at first base; Brice Turang ascending to new heights at second base; Caleb Durbin finishing third in the NL Rookie of the Year race at third base; and Joey Ortiz running hot and cold at the plate while providing premier defense at shortstop, the infield looks locked and loaded for 2026. While Alex Bregman would look great playing third for the Brewers in 2026, that’s the type of upgrade that rarely comes via free agency in Milwaukee.

Is there room then in the outfield to add value? The 2025 Brewers outfield was very good; the Crew were joined by the Yankees, Cubs, Padres, and Red Sox as the only teams having all three primary outfielders rank in the top 35 in outfielder fWAR for the season (Sal Frelick 3.6, Jackson Chourio 2.9, Isaac Collins 2.6). All three are good baseball players, and there is reason to believe all three can continue to improve as Chourio grows into his tools, Frelick nears his prime age, and Collins continues to gain experience in the outfield as part of his late breakout.

Collectively, this trio hit 42 home runs, with Chourio accounting for exactly half of those. Because they're both small by big-league standards, it’s fair to wonder how much more power Collins and Frelick have. Much like Bregman at third, Kyle Tucker would fit just fine in Milwaukee’s outfield, but Brewers fans won’t find the former Cub under their Christmas tree. Given the Brewers' payroll expectations and their recent history of not sacrificing defense for offense, there are very few players who would qualify as a potentially obtainable upgrade in Milwaukee’s outfield.

The Red Sox, meanwhile, have arguably the best defensive player in baseball (Ceddanne Rafaela) patrolling center field. On either side, they have Gold Glove right fielder Wilyer Abreu and last year’s consensus top prospect and budding superstar, Roman Anthony, in left. They also have Jarren Duran, who produced the 7th-highest fWAR among all position players in 2024 with 6.8 and another 3.9 fWAR this season. The Red Sox have been rumored to be shopping Duran since last winter, and are doing so again right now. Would Duran be an upgrade for the Brewers, and how would he fit in?

Duran clearly has more power than either Collins or Frelick. He hit 16 home runs as part of 70 extra-base hits in 2025 and had 21 and 83 of those, respectively, in 2024. Those surface-level stats dwarf the Brewers’ trio. Duran is an exceptional baserunner, finishing in the top 10 in FanGraphs BsR value three seasons in a row. He took a step back at the plate this season, but any regression back toward his 2024 level would be an upgrade for the Brewers.

	HR	Total xBH	SLG	wRC+
Duran 2024	21	83	.492	131
Duran 2025	16	70	.442	111
Chourio	21	55	.463	111
Frelick	12	35	.405	114
Collins	9	34	.411	122

On defense, Duran profiles best as a center fielder. Statcast rated him highly in center for 2024, with a strong throwing arm, before the Sox moved him to left this season so Rafaela could take over. Interestingly, Statcast also rates Chourio as a better center fielder than corner outfielder, and even Frelick did not rate positively in left. Only Collins receives positive defensive ratings in left field. Either of these outfield alignments could work:

1. Chourio RF, Duran CF, Collins LF
2. Frelick RF, Duran CF, Chourio LF

The team could, therefore, effectively platoon Frelick (who batted .301 but only had six extra-base hits (all doubles) against left-handed pitchers in 174 plate appearances in 2025) with Collins (who had 13 extra-base hits in 143 plate appearances against southpaws) around Duran and Chourio, with Blake Perkins or Garrett Mitchell slotting in as a fifth outfielder instead of a fourth.

The Red Sox, like most teams, would like to add pitching. Their bullpen, in particular, needs help. Aaron Ashby was excellent down the stretch for the Brewers, until they wore him out in the playoffs, and he looks like a potential late-inning reliever whom a manager could count on to lock down an opposing lineup across multiple innings. Ashby’s contract for 2026 matches almost exactly with what Duran is expected to earn in arbitration this winter, which should work well for both teams, as the Red Sox are reportedly looking to save a large portion of their budget for a corner infielder like Bregman or Pete Alonso. Trading Ashby would sting, but his contract is a little elevated for a non-closer Brewers reliever. FanGraphs recently rated Robert Gasser as the 10th-best prospect in the Brewers system, and he’s already demonstrated success at the MLB level. He could be a solid back-end rotation option or swingman for Boston. With Boston looking to compete in 2026, maybe a package of Gasser, Ashby, and Nick Mears—three arms that would all immediately join the Red Sox pitching staff—would entice Boston to send Duran to Milwaukee.

The Brewers have the depth to replace Ashby and Mears in their bullpen, and Gasser is one of a handful of starters who currently don’t have a rotation spot. Acquiring Duran should open up plenty of options for the Brewers to deal from their outfield depth, and they could eventually explore trading two of Frelick, Collins, and Mitchell. Duran, with three years of team control remaining, would be a good candidate to be traded again by the Brewers during either of the next two offseasons.

Matt Arnold and company have stocked their roster and minor-league system with many good players. Still, they may need to find a way to make marginal upgrades at positions already considered strengths to reach that next level of success and win their first pennant since 1982, or their first World Series ever. Duran is one of a limited set of realistic ways they could do so.

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[Michael Trzinski]

I like it. The trade pieces could be adjusted and it could very well be a good deal for both sides.

Just imagine: the new Brewer outfielder coming to bat with 'Hungry Like The Wolf' as his walk-up song. 😎

[jay87shot]

I like Duran, I think the issue is that there will be around 10 teams that would be interested in Duran. His price is going to be very high as likely the best bat trade option. I think a team like the Mariners would can pay more than what we would want to offer. I do think that the Red Sox would want Freddy for Duran and probably a 2nd piece as well. Ashby and a couple prospects would be a good offer but likely one another team would top.

[sveumrules]

Couple red flags for Duran are that he’s pretty much a platoon only guy with a 138 wRC+ vs RHP but only a 78 wRC+ vs LHP over the last three years.

Also probably getting a little Fenway boost with a 131 wRC+ at home versus a 112 wRC+ on the road over that same stretch.

Likely one of the best guys available via trade this offseason so not sure Ashby, Gasser, Mears would get it done.

Think the headliner would probably have to be Peralta or one of Patrick/Henderson to really get the Red Sox attention.

[Bob K]

I think everyone likes Duran. The issue is that there will likely be lots of teams that like him a lot more than the Brewers. I don’t see Arnold getting in the mix to acquire him when a healthy Mitchell could potentially give the Brewers the same thing Duran could. 

[Brian]

I'm all for it since Isaac Collins bat just disappeared the second half of the 2025 season.  I was a big fan of Collins but a .118 avg the second half of the season is a major concern.  As long as we don't have to give up a crazy amount of players/prospects for him. 

[Outlander]

5 minutes ago, Brian said:

I'm all for it since Isaac Collins bat just disappeared the second half of the 2025 season.  I was a big fan of Collins but a .118 avg the second half of the season is a major concern. As long as we don't have to give up a crazy amount of players for him. 

Where is this .118 average? His July and August were still very good though he did struggle in September and into the playoffs.

[Brian]

27 minutes ago, Outlander said:

Where is this .118 average? His July and August were still very good though he did struggle in September and into the playoffs.

My mistake it was .187 not .118  Stats from August 16, 2025, to the end of the season Batting Average (AVG): .187   Probably why Murphy benched him. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Also probably getting a little Fenway boost with a 131 wRC+ at home versus a 112 wRC+ on the road over that same stretch.

I looked into this a bit, and in 2024 when Duran was good, he was better outside Fenway than in it. The two years bookending that when Duran was less good, he's WAY better in Fenway than outside it.

Weird, and possibly worth a dive unto itself.

[wallus]

Duran and Abreu would be targets from the Red Sox. For the cost and control parts, I would think the team should target Abreu over Duran.

Brewers: Duran (BTV: 26.2)

Red Sox: Peralta (BTV: 26.7)

This "feels" like a Brewers kind of trade.

[GasserFace]

My gut tells me that his doubles total would drop at AmFam vs Fenway, especially with the great article that Jayson Stark had on The Athletic about the death of the double and triple, which is related to advanced OF positioning.  You can place your OF as deep as possible at Fenway, but they can't climb the Monster.

Also, I have to mention that Ike Collins needs a bit of grace from all of us.  His slump coincided with the arrival of his first child.  Let's see what he looks like early this season.

In that Athletic article, Collins also was one of the best OF's in feet gained via jump and route per Statcast.  

 

[sveumrules]

19 minutes ago, GasserFace said:

My gut tells me that his doubles total would drop at AmFam vs Fenway, especially with the great article that Jayson Stark had on The Athletic about the death of the double and triple, which is related to advanced OF positioning.  You can place your OF as deep as possible at Fenway, but they can't climb the Monster.

StatCast Park Factors has Fenway with a 122 rating for doubles, first place ahead of even Coors at 119. AmFam is 27th with an 87 rating for doubles, so about as big of a swing between extremes as there is.

[Telemachus Rafaelidys]

3 hours ago, jay87shot said:

I like Duran, I think the issue is that there will be around 10 teams that would be interested in Duran. His price is going to be very high as likely the best bat trade option. I think a team like the Mariners would can pay more than what we would want to offer. I do think that the Red Sox would want Freddy for Duran and probably a 2nd piece as well. Ashby and a couple prospects would be a good offer but likely one another team would top.

Your comment seems to be the consensus. Maybe there is a three team deal where the Brewers send Frelick or Collins or Mitchell to maybe the Royals or Mets for example with that team sending assets to the Red Sox to add to the Brewers offer?

[Brian]

Jarren Duran 2025 highlights. Watch for yourself. 3X better than Collins. 

 

[Turning2]

If the shoe was on the other foot, and everything else being equal, would the Brewers be expecting to receive 3 major league level pitchers in return? Granted, they are relievers currently, but Ash and Gas  have (or had?) projections of being starters. The Brewers would probably get something like a utility player, a nominal arm and maybe a red chip prospect. 

If Duran is the most viable trade target available to add some (not much) offensive punch, then explore it, But, maybe try to deal from some prospect depth instead of 3 BP arms all at once.

And, no way should Peralta be part of the deal. I have zero expectations that Woody stays healthy all year. Trading Peralta for a bat and then losing Woody would essentially nullify the gain in offense in my view. 

They need to upgrade either Ortiz or Perk. Personally, I would lean towards the latter and keep the gold glove-esque defense at SS. Maybe trading for Duran is a path towards that. The possibility was covered a few weeks ago when Chuck Freimund did a crossover "Locked On..." with the Red Sox channel on Youtube.  (not sure if linking to other content is OK here??)

 

 

[Devinep]

I wound think Collins would be of interest as a return piece for Durran as replacement OF depth, especially with the Password being traded today. Collins could also be a possibility at 2B, which is weak in BOS. 
 

it would obviously take a lot more, but getting Durran would also mean not needing all of Collins, Perkins, Lockridge, and Mitchell anyway. 

[BrewerFan]

On 12/4/2025 at 11:30 AM, Bob K said:

I think everyone likes Duran. The issue is that there will likely be lots of teams that like him a lot more than the Brewers. I don’t see Arnold getting in the mix to acquire him when a healthy Mitchell could potentially give the Brewers the same thing Duran could. 

I suppose a healthy Garrett Mitchell COULD give you what Duran did. I think it's... extremely unlikely due to his strikeouts, but in this scenario, he stays healthy... if he does, you'd be wise to then trade him. 

4 years, he's been injured. I'm not sure if it's the Type 1 diabetes. Maybe that's why he's had issues with his shoulder. It takes longer to heal, but in any event, he's lost out on so much developmental time. He's still a guy who K's a LOT... when he's out there. 

But that's fine. I don't think we need to rely on Mitchell. We have options and you can go with Mitchell, see if he can stay healthy. If he can't... you've got depth. 

I also don't see that trade package being close to enough to get Duran.

 

On 12/4/2025 at 2:15 PM, GasserFace said:

Also, I have to mention that Ike Collins needs a bit of grace from all of us.  His slump coincided with the arrival of his first child.  Let's see what he looks like early this season.

I think that's the narrative, but... he got back from that and we were going with Chourio, Perkins, Frelick in the OF. 

He slumped, but he also got more sporadic playing time. I think he's a fine OF option. Perkins probably has one more year before we move on to Lara in CF, younger, he'll be cheaper and I think he's got more upside. 

I'd also imagine Luke Adams gets some reps in LF. He's a pretty solid athlete with a good arm. Tyler Black, I'm not writing him off(I'm not writing him IN to the lineup either, but... we can see how it goes). 

Bauers should play some in LF. He's a good defender with a big arm and walks a lot. 

 

I think this is the year Chourio turns into a superstar and Frelick is already a very good player who is not a star due to his limitations, but a key contributor. 

So that and how much it'd take to get Duran...(again, 8.7 WAR and 4.7 WAR, that's better than Turang the last two years... or Contreras or any Brewers). Would any of us want to trade that package for... Greg Weissert(Mears), Garrett Whitlock(Ashby, even with the similar contract) and Connlley Early(Robert Gasser).

If you'd pass on that deal, ask why the Red Sox would accept our package for Duran? It's... probably unlikely. 

[BrewerFan]

On 12/4/2025 at 8:47 PM, Turning2 said:

If the shoe was on the other foot, and everything else being equal, would the Brewers be expecting to receive 3 major league level pitchers in return? Granted, they are relievers currently, but Ash and Gas  have (or had?) projections of being starters. The Brewers would probably get something like a utility player, a nominal arm and maybe a red chip prospect. 

If Duran is the most viable trade target available to add some (not much) offensive punch, then explore it, But, maybe try to deal from some prospect depth instead of 3 BP arms all at once.

And, no way should Peralta be part of the deal. I have zero expectations that Woody stays healthy all year. Trading Peralta for a bat and then losing Woody would essentially nullify the gain in offense in my view. 

They need to upgrade either Ortiz or Perk. Personally, I would lean towards the latter and keep the gold glove-esque defense at SS. Maybe trading for Duran is a path towards that. The possibility was covered a few weeks ago when Chuck Freimund did a crossover "Locked On..." with the Red Sox channel on Youtube.  (not sure if linking to other content is OK here??)

When have the Brewers traded a guy with 3 years of team control coming off a 8.7 WAR and a 4.7 WAR season for a "utility player, nominal arm and a red chip prospect?"

Also... you kinda contradict yourself here. They need to upgrade Ortiz or Perkins and then... you don't think Duran is good enough. 

Duran is a REALLY good player. Not great, but I'd trade him for Frelick... if he wasn't arbitration eligible. Just production wise, I'd roll the dice on Duran over Frelick. And given his bat speed and hitting from the left side, I don't think the Home/Road splits would be as big of an impact.