NFL Wild Card Round: Packers @ Bears on January 10th at 7:00 PM

[CheezWizHed]

This is the rubber match squared. 

Packers and Bears split both of their meetings this year and have split both of the previous times the two have meet in the playoffs.  

I'm not sure how many of you remember the 1941 game where the Bears beat the Packers, but I'm sure quite a few of you remember the 2010 win by the Packers that ultimately led to our 4th SB victory.  

The Packers team that comes into this game will be oddly different than the one that met the Bears just a couple of weeks ago.  The Packers have made 30 player transactions since that game. 

Thankfully, Love was not one of those transactions and looks to be healthy coming into the playoffs.  

The bigger changes would be to DT where Jordan Riley (DL) and Quinton Bohanna (released) are replaced by Jonathan Ford (waiver from the Bears) and Stackhouse (depth chart).  Given the poor play of the DT against the Bears, that might not be much of a factor. 

Losing Hobbs (DL) and Hadden (DL) while gaining Trevon Diggs (waiver from Cowboys) should really be an improvement based on metrics at least. 

Getting Oliver off the PUP provided an interesting wrinkle against the Vikings as he produced 4 pressures in his debut against the starting Viking OL. 

Losing FitzPatrick hurts our blocking and TE depth, but he wasn't much of an impact player in either regard. It means more Whyle (maybe a good thing?) and an opportunity for Drake Dabney off the PS. 

Losing Savion Williams, Welch, and Anderson all impact Special Teams more than anything else.  JKJ looks up to the task of replacing Williams on ST and as a backup WR. 

[adambr2]

It’s tough for me to imagine special teams really being any worse than they usually are in regard to coverage and returns.

I say that and Duvernay probably takes the opening kickoff 99 yards to the house on Saturday.

[igor67]

30 transactions in a month seems like a crazy number of roster moves.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think this game hinges on how well Packer linebackers play - if Walker and Cooper don't have great games I can see the Bears moving the ball at will running it, tight ends up the seams, and receivers/RBs with screens/short option routes on the outside...an offensive game plan that minimizes the times Williams has to make risky throws/reads into coverage and also churn clock with the running game.  If they play great and find a way to keep Williams' scrambling ability in check, Green Bay wins Saturday night.

[OldHeidelberg]

I just saw Diggs got a good PFF grade for his 32 snaps yesterday and MLF didn't rule out that he could start on Saturday. I noticed on an early play he was playing press coverage, that may be something he brings to the table that has been much needed. 

[CheezWizHed]

Just now, OldHeidelberg said:

I just saw Diggs got a good PFF grade for his 32 snaps yesterday and MLF didn't rule out that he could start on Saturday. I noticed on an early play he was playing press coverage, that may be something he brings to the table that has been much needed. 

Historically, he has been poor at man coverage (even in his ProBowl years).  Most of his coverage metrics this year put him right in line with Nixon and Valentine (but above Hobbs).  Where I hope he can bring a spark would be on interceptions.  Would love to see the Playoffs start with a Williams-Diggs pick 6!

[OldHeidelberg]

5 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

Historically, he has been poor at man coverage (even in his ProBowl years).  Most of his coverage metrics this year put him right in line with Nixon and Valentine (but above Hobbs).  Where I hope he can bring a spark would be on interceptions.  Would love to see the Playoffs start with a Williams-Diggs pick 6!

Ok, I wasn't sure if he was known more as a press corner or what. Yes, anyone please catch a damn pick this week. You know Williams will give you at least one shot. 

[Jopal78]

Given the beat down the Ravens’ OL gave the Packers, allowing Henry and Co. to run wild through the middle; why would the Bears do anything but feed Swift and Monangai right up the middle, force the inexperienced/undermanned Green Bay DL stop them and keep the Packers offense off the field?

[homer]

52 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Given the beat down the Ravens’ OL gave the Packers, allowing Henry and Co. to run wild through the middle; why would the Bears do anything but feed Swift and Monangai right up the middle, force the inexperienced/undermanned Green Bay DL stop them and keep the Packers offense off the field?

Is the DL thinner than it was a few weeks ago?

[kestrel79]

If the Packers D can for once this season get some INTs I think we win. To me that has been the biggest disappoint with the D this season. Seems like our guys are in the right place to make the INT, and they just drop it or two guys go for it. It was a major reason the D was so good last year. I really thought INTs would increase this year too with the better pass rush. I know a lot of people on here predicted that and it just didn't happen. So strange. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Given the beat down the Ravens’ OL gave the Packers, allowing Henry and Co. to run wild through the middle; why would the Bears do anything but feed Swift and Monangai right up the middle, force the inexperienced/undermanned Green Bay DL stop them and keep the Packers offense off the field?

I actually don't put a ton of stock into that Ravens game because it came on the heels of the Packers blowing what they thought was their shot at the division/#2 seed by beating themselves at Chicago (a game they held the Bears' running game in check), and the night after the Packers knew they clinched a playoff spot.  They will be challenged to repeat the success they've had limiting the Bears running game in both games they've played this season, which is why I think how the Packers' linebackers play will have a huge say in the outcome of this playoff game.

Forecast for saturday night's game looks to be temps in the upper 20s after a morning of a rainy/snow mix, and pretty windy.  Knowing how putrid the playing surface at Soldier Field is under even good weather conditions, this could turn into a mudder assuming their grounds crew does something stupid (safe bet) - which I think favors the Bears, but should also help the Packers' run game and slippery field conditions tend to even out what happens in the trenches.

 

 

 

[Jopal78]

5 hours ago, homer said:

Is the DL thinner than it was a few weeks ago?

They have 2 different DTs than those who played against Baltimore. One of the new DTs is Jonathon Ford, a player the Packers already released once, who was just released by Chicago (not regarded as a strong defensive team). The other is Nazir Stackhouse a undrafted rookie they’ve carried on the 53 man all year, but signed muktiple DTs off the street during the season  to play in front of. Hence, the terms I used: inexperienced and undermanned.

The Bears ran it 40 times in their win over the Eagles. If the Packers DL can’t stop the inside run; I would expect the Bears to run it like that again. 

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

The Bears ran it 40 times in their win over the Eagles. If the Packers DL can’t stop the inside run; I would expect the Bears to run it like that again. 

They were able to run it 40+ times in that game because they got a lead and the Eagles' offense gave them two turnovers besides being awful.  They had just gotten shut down for the 2nd half of that Cowboys game 4 days earlier by an equally bad defense.  The next week the Bears ran it 32 times for 138 yards, and two weeks later ran it 26 times for 150 yards....against the Packers.  So it's not like the Packers shut them down running the ball either in more recent games where the Packers won and should have won even as their defensive roster was gutted losing Wyatt and then Parsons.  The Bears have actually been running it less and less down the stretch, which seems odd since it's not like the defenses they've faced are considered elite in that same span - but then you realize a big reason is they've been playing from behind ever since that Eagles game.

Part of the Packers' gameplan needs to be scoring points against an awful Bears defense and playing keep away with the time of possession to  prevent the Bears' offense from getting into a mode where they're chewing up 5-8 yards a carry and getting wide open looks with easy throws off play action in the 2nd half of a game they firmly control.  I don't think GB is good enough defensively to prevent the Bears from getting on a roll for an entire game, but if they can at least generate a few 3 and outs or make it tough sledding for part of the game, I think it could be enough for the Packers to wind up winning the game by outscoring them.

 

[young guns]

Saw this article about the playoff channel and time decisions, which answers some of our discussion last week.  https://www.packersnews.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2026/01/06/why-did-packers-bears-playoff-game-amazon-saturday-night/88044900007/?utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=Iwb21leAPKdDdleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBzcnRjBmFwcF9pZAwzNTA2ODU1MzE3MjgAAR7wjoXNoomD2y5l6v_ID9CKO6KRahGp8-_S5TANsxt1yAjFVMif2iv6oaaj-w_aem_s-FTFcP5GEZxTsaaKCDgvQ

 

Some interesting tidbits:

1.  NFL does decide itself who gets what

2. Everyone wanted our game

3.  NFL chose prime to help the burgeoning relationship and NBC having the defacto playoff game of steelers/ravens contrubuted as well.

4.  Top playoff game usually gets the 330pm sunday followed by sunday night slots.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

15 hours ago, young guns said:

Saw this article about the playoff channel and time decisions, which answers some of our discussion last week.  https://www.packersnews.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2026/01/06/why-did-packers-bears-playoff-game-amazon-saturday-night/88044900007/?utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=Iwb21leAPKdDdleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBzcnRjBmFwcF9pZAwzNTA2ODU1MzE3MjgAAR7wjoXNoomD2y5l6v_ID9CKO6KRahGp8-_S5TANsxt1yAjFVMif2iv6oaaj-w_aem_s-FTFcP5GEZxTsaaKCDgvQ

 

Some interesting tidbits:

1.  NFL does decide itself who gets what

2. Everyone wanted our game

3.  NFL chose prime to help the burgeoning relationship and NBC having the defacto playoff game of steelers/ravens contrubuted as well.

4.  Top playoff game usually gets the 330pm sunday followed by sunday night slots.

Interesting. That checks out with what I had posted before the games were announced. Sunday 3:30 is the money slot, but they pulled some funky business to make Amazon happy. The NFL has also shown they aren't afraid to think outside of the box, perhaps Saturday Night Football is coming, and they want to see what a marquee matchup does there.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I have low expectations for this game. It's completely realistic to think GB can win, but I just can't shake the feeling of a botched FG, a punt return TD in the 4th quarter for CHI, a fumble inside the 5-yard-line. Whatever it may be. It just feels destined for that kind of crap.

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 hour ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

I have low expectations for this game. It's completely realistic to think GB can win, but I just can't shake the feeling of a botched FG, a punt return TD in the 4th quarter for CHI, a fumble inside the 5-yard-line. Whatever it may be. It just feels destined for that kind of crap.

Yeah I get that feeling - especially if weather/field conditions play any sort of role.  It would be sweet to win and send a fraudulent Bears team packing with this mash unit of a roster a week earlier than they otherwise would, though.  Their fanbase is so arrogantly ignorant and annoying.

[adambr2]

As I look at the Bears roster, I can’t help but be irritated that they have four rookies playing significant roles on their team. Burden has greatly outperformed Golden. Loveland looks like a problem for years to come at TE.

Trapilo is already an above average starting OT as a rookie. And Monangai is probably one of the better committee backs around. 

This isn’t a “Golden sucks” rant, because I don’t think he does. The issue is that we seem to treat rookies in Green Bay with little kid gloves and make them work their way up the depth chart before they get any real opportunities.

And I’m kind of over that. If the kids can play, cut them loose. Holding onto the approach and philosophy that we shouldn’t expect much from our rookies and second year players and that you need some rite of passage time on roster before you can contribute is an outdated approach, and not a very efficient one when rookie contracts are only 4 years.

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

46 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

As I look at the Bears roster, I can’t help but be irritated that they have four rookies playing significant roles on their team. Burden has greatly outperformed Golden. Loveland looks like a problem for years to come at TE.

Trapilo is already an above average starting OT as a rookie. And Monangai is probably one of the better committee backs around. 

This isn’t a “Golden sucks” rant, because I don’t think he does. The issue is that we seem to treat rookies in Green Bay with little kid gloves and make them work their way up the depth chart before they get any real opportunities.

And I’m kind of over that. If the kids can play, cut them loose. Holding onto the approach and philosophy that we shouldn’t expect much from our rookies and second year players and that you need some rite of passage time on roster before you can contribute is an outdated approach, and not a very efficient one when rookie contracts are only 4 years.

 

The Bears were among the worst teams in football last season, frankly a bunch of rookies HAVE to play significant roles for them, because they spent a TON of money last offseason shoring up a putrid line with veteran interior OL amd still had holes to fill all over the field (almost never a good longterm strategy for team cap purposes, btw).  The NFL is structured for teams like the Bears to eventually figure it out well enough to open up a 2-3 year window where they're at least not awful.

 

At some point a squirrel finds a nut constantly picking high - and the Bears had a really good last couple drafts. Don't get me wrong - they hit on more than just 1st-2nd rounders, too.

 

For Golden's situation, there are only so many footballs to go around - i do think Doubs needs to go and Golden will have  a much larger role alongside Watson and Reed in the passing game.  I think he has been underutilized - it seems to me like that weird pirouette he tried returning a punt that saw him get obliterated early in the season sent him to the corner in MLF's mind for far too long.

[endaround]

14 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

The Bears were among the worst teams in football last season, frankly a bunch of rookies HAVE to play significant roles for them, because they spent a TON of money last offseason shoring up a putrid line with veteran interior OL amd still had holes to fill all over the field (almost never a good longterm strategy for team cap purposes, btw).  The NFL is structured for teams like the Bears to eventually figure it out well enough to open up a 2-3 year window where they're at least not awful.

 

At some point a squirrel finds a nut constantly picking high - and the Bears had a really good last couple drafts. Don't get me wrong - they hit on more than just 1st-2nd rounders, too.

 

For Golden's situation, there are only so many footballs to go around - i do think Doubs needs to go and Golden will have  a much larger role alongside Watson and Reed in the passing game.  I think he has been underutilized - it seems to me like that weird pirouette he tried returning a punt that saw him get obliterated early in the season sent him to the corner in MLF's mind for far too long.

Or he kept running routes incorrectly and Love didn't trust him. He then lost playing time when Watson and Reed came back.  Watch some JT O'Sullivan Love breakdowns and how many time he questions what Golden is doing. 

[adambr2]

3 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

The Bears were among the worst teams in football last season, frankly a bunch of rookies HAVE to play significant roles for them, because they spent a TON of money last offseason shoring up a putrid line with veteran interior OL amd still had holes to fill all over the field (almost never a good longterm strategy for team cap purposes, btw).  The NFL is structured for teams like the Bears to eventually figure it out well enough to open up a 2-3 year window where they're at least not awful.

 

At some point a squirrel finds a nut constantly picking high - and the Bears had a really good last couple drafts. Don't get me wrong - they hit on more than just 1st-2nd rounders, too.

 

For Golden's situation, there are only so many footballs to go around - i do think Doubs needs to go and Golden will have  a much larger role alongside Watson and Reed in the passing game.  I think he has been underutilized - it seems to me like that weird pirouette he tried returning a punt that saw him get obliterated early in the season sent him to the corner in MLF's mind for far too long.

It isn’t just unique to Golden or the Bears. I mean you could have made the same argument with Burden, Loveland and Monangai that they should have been buried behind Moore, Odunze, Swift and Kmet.

Hell I’ll argue that if Loveland had been drafted by the Packers behind Kmet, he barely would have seen a role this year.

I do think there’s some organizational philosophy involved. This is the team that used a 2nd on AJ Dillon and then buried him being Aaron Jones for his entire rookie deal. 

[Recovering Chicagoan]

12 hours ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

I have low expectations for this game. It's completely realistic to think GB can win, but I just can't shake the feeling of a botched FG, a punt return TD in the 4th quarter for CHI, a fumble inside the 5-yard-line. Whatever it may be. It just feels destined for that kind of crap.

If the Bears are going to win, I’d rather they win by, say, 10 points instead of what we saw a couple weeks ago.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

3 hours ago, adambr2 said:

It isn’t just unique to Golden or the Bears. I mean you could have made the same argument with Burden, Loveland and Monangai that they should have been buried behind Moore, Odunze, Swift and Kmet.

Hell I’ll argue that if Loveland had been drafted by the Packers behind Kmet, he barely would have seen a role this year.

I do think there’s some organizational philosophy involved. This is the team that used a 2nd on AJ Dillon and then buried him being Aaron Jones for his entire rookie deal. 

I get the point and agree with it. But AJ Dillon had 200 touches for 3 straight years. He was a legitimate part of their offense. I think they got pretty amazing value out of the assets they used to create the Jones-Dillon tandem. Dillon never quite had the burst/power I think everyone assumes he would have based on appearances, but it's not like he was useless.

[adambr2]

21 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

I get the point and agree with it. But AJ Dillon had 200 touches for 3 straight years. He was a legitimate part of their offense. I think they got pretty amazing value out of the assets they used to create the Jones-Dillon tandem. Dillon never quite had the burst/power I think everyone assumes he would have based on appearances, but it's not like he was useless.

But his rookie year he was almost completely uninvolved which was my beef with our treatment of rookies.

That whole 2020 class was just bizarre. Dillon in the 2nd, Deguara in the 3rd. It was kind of their last shot for some young help for Rodgers and they went all in on projects and supplementary role players.

We can debate all day as to whether Rodgers was worth it at 26 and he definitely was in a vacuum, but I don’t know if he was to us, given how we didn’t get a piece for Rodgers, we had to pay Love before we really could evaluate him because he sat almost his entire rookie deal, and the guy we traded a 7th for probably could have ended up running the offense just as well.

[Jopal78]

5 hours ago, adambr2 said:

It isn’t just unique to Golden or the Bears. I mean you could have made the same argument with Burden, Loveland and Monangai that they should have been buried behind Moore, Odunze, Swift and Kmet.

Hell I’ll argue that if Loveland had been drafted by the Packers behind Kmet, he barely would have seen a role this year.

I do think there’s some organizational philosophy involved. This is the team that used a 2nd on AJ Dillon and then buried him being Aaron Jones for his entire rookie deal. 

I can’t explain the Golden situation, a guy taken in the 1st round who is the 5th or 6th WR.

The Packers do have overwhelming confidence in their staff to be able to coach players up and draft amateurs which results in them drafting on future potential than immediate impact (Van Ness or Watson for example).

The difference between the Bears and Packers is necessity. When the cupboard is bare, a team needs players to contribute immediately