ETA's

[jay87shot]

With the current state of 3B and question marks at SS and CF what would our current expectations for earliest mlb arrival time be. Usually it seems like teams like to get 200 pa in each level but we could be at critical concerns if 3B doesn't work out, Joey doesn;t hit, and OF gets some injuries or doesn't hit as well.

Jett- I know the front office said he will have a chance for an everyday job but I kind of think he will be like Durbin at least 3-4 weeks in AAA to adjust to 3B potentially and to also gain another year of arbitration control.

Cooper- July/August   Obviously if he starts at AAA and tears it up early he could get a look earlier but I think it would be best for his development to get most of the season in AAA (he could start in AA).

Made- 2027 (July/August emergency)    It would surprise me that if Joey struggles and Made is hitting the ball well in AA that the club could get desperate and have him skip AAA. However that is really drastic, like Pratt it would be best for him to spend a good portion of the year in AA and get some AAA experience later in the year so he could be the guy in 27'.

Lara-June       I think with Lara's defense, speed, and approach at the plate he might be a step ahead of other guys getting to the bigs. There is Perkins, Mitchell, Lockridge, and Baddoo in front of him but I would guess a solid start to the AAA season he could easily jump those guys whenever Mitchell gets hurt.

Wilken- May/June    Similar to Lara if Hamilton, Williams or whomever else struggle Wilken could get a chance early especially with a strong  first 100 AAA abs, his defense would also have to be solid for an earlier call up.

Adams/Burke/Fischer=2027      I will link these together, with Vaughn and Bauers the 1B are blocked even if they hit extremely well and I think Fischer is just to far away to get to the bigs this year.

Pena-Mid-2027     Like Fischer to far to help this year, with the depth we can go slower and shot for 2028 with a chance mid next year if things go better than expected.

Quero/Dinges   Quero could be ready whenever but with Sanchez and McGuire my guess is he will spend most of the year in AAA. Dinges id probably like Fischer and Pena, best eta should be mid 2027.

Are there any other prospects that could help this year? 

[Soupy]

Fischer

The man can hit

[snoogans8056]

I’m all in on Wilken being a better MLB player than prospect. Too much bad luck, too much stop/start. If he plays all season last year, I think he’s no doubt our opening day 3B.

[igor67]

Wilken definitely has a window of opportunity open to him, and with so many potential options behind him in an organization that likes to move people around it behooves him to take it.

[biedergb]

For the ETAs, @jay87shot I am sure those are reasonable ETAs based upon prospect status, BUT

1. development is not linear, so some like Made, Pena could take longer, and Pratt could stall out or have another breakout year, Then the injury issue which is so infuriating also is still there

2. The Brewers have also been very cognizant of service time and 40 man spots - like when Miz was pushing for a bullpen role in 2024 - which may still have happened if they didn't get forced to add Carlos Rodriguez and have him struggle earlier in the year. Similar to Chourio in 2023. So I do think a lot of the younger guys AA or lower will not see MLB action this year barring something crazy happening. But those expected to be in AAA to start have a good chance of a June (or later) call up and that seems to be more the front office MO of post Memorial Day and then July promotions.

But I would say Jett and Quero are most likely to see MLB time this year, with Quero timeline having been altered now with McGuire and Sanchez signings, and Jett's now more open. Wilken, Pratt and one of Adams/Burke will join Lara in AAA to start so expect 1-2 of these guys to hopefully force the hand and get a June-August call up.  Made/Pena/Fischer/Dinges are all likely 2027 or later. Even if Made follows Chourio path that would be a 2027 debut, and that is still a rarity for a 19/20 year old to debut in the MLB.

But in 2027-2029 there will be a lot of prospects to fill these roles with most of the core still here (sans Contreras and Megill who are FAs after the next 2 seasons), and Woodruff and Vaughn are gone after this season and not part of the future "core".

[jay87shot]

1 hour ago, biedergb said:

For the ETAs, @jay87shot I am sure those are reasonable ETAs based upon prospect status, BUT

1. development is not linear, so some like Made, Pena could take longer, and Pratt could stall out or have another breakout year, Then the injury issue which is so infuriating also is still there

2. The Brewers have also been very cognizant of service time and 40 man spots - like when Miz was pushing for a bullpen role in 2024 - which may still have happened if they didn't get forced to add Carlos Rodriguez and have him struggle earlier in the year. Similar to Chourio in 2023. So I do think a lot of the younger guys AA or lower will not see MLB action this year barring something crazy happening. But those expected to be in AAA to start have a good chance of a June (or later) call up and that seems to be more the front office MO of post Memorial Day and then July promotions.

But I would say Jett and Quero are most likely to see MLB time this year, with Quero timeline having been altered now with McGuire and Sanchez signings, and Jett's now more open. Wilken, Pratt and one of Adams/Burke will join Lara in AAA to start so expect 1-2 of these guys to hopefully force the hand and get a June-August call up.  Made/Pena/Fischer/Dinges are all likely 2027 or later. Even if Made follows Chourio path that would be a 2027 debut, and that is still a rarity for a 19/20 year old to debut in the MLB.

But in 2027-2029 there will be a lot of prospects to fill these roles with most of the core still here (sans Contreras and Megill who are FAs after the next 2 seasons), and Woodruff and Vaughn are gone after this season and not part of the future "core".

I was kind of thinking my ETA's as earliest possible situation. I don't think most of the one I put down make a ton of sense. Especially since Contreras (assuming a trade) is the only likely full time player to leave by next year, there is really only room for a couple guys to play consistently.

I do agree with all you points.

[Playing Catch]

I think the timelines you offered, jay87, are about right.

I think of this crop of prospects, the guys that I can imagine breaking out to the point of early promotion are only Made and Fischer.

I can see guys like Jett, Pratt, Lara, and Wilken getting promoted early due to injury/positional need, but I can only imagine Made and Fischer performing in a way that "forces" their way onto the 26-man on an accelerated timeline. And even then, the team may look for ways of signing a pre-promotion extension in order to lower the guaranteed dollars on the backend of such a deal.

[snoogans8056]

I think promotions are going to be heavily influenced by 40-man, this year more than any other.

Quero, Jett, Wilken, and Adams are going to be the only positional call ups this year.  Quero is already on the 40, and the other three will have to be added after the season. No one else will even have a wiff of a 40-man spot due to the potential lockout.

That will, however, set the stage for a potential 2027 AAA lineup made entirely of top 100 prospects….

C: Dinges

1B: Burke

2B: Made

SS: Pratt

3B: Fischer

LF: Adamczewski

CF: Lara

RF: Pena

[TURBO]

2 hours ago, snoogans8056 said:

I think promotions are going to be heavily influenced by 40-man, this year more than any other.

Quero, Jett, Wilken, and Adams are going to be the only positional call ups this year.  Quero is already on the 40, and the other three will have to be added after the season. No one else will even have a wiff of a 40-man spot due to the potential lockout.

That will, however, set the stage for a potential 2027 AAA lineup made entirely of top 100 prospects….

C: Dinges

1B: Burke

2B: Made

SS: Pratt

3B: Fischer

LF: Adamczewski

CF: Lara

RF: Pena

That line-up would warrant a road trip to Nashville to catch a series!

[Jim French Stepstool]

I think you're a little optimistic on the timeline re Lara. Otherwise pretty darned accurate.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I think ALL of these are too optimistic. Not because they're out of line with how the Brewers operate as most of these are fair and well thought out assessments under normal circumstances. But because 2026 is anything but normal circumstances, I think this is going to be a very different year when it comes to 40 man roster adds. There's massive risk adding anyone who plays a big role in your future on the 40 man this year. From not being able to play during a lockout in 2027 to potentially losing service time for nothing. I think the Brewers slow roll advancement this year

Now perhaps the Brewers don't quite take 40 man add avoidance to the extreme that I think they will. But I see so many not at all accounting for the potential lockout and how that hurts young 40 man players. Not only are there major downsides that can be avoided by holding back 40 man adds, there very well might be major developmental advantages to be had for the teams that hold back players that reverberate well beyond the return to action post lockout. I can't imagine a smart small market team like the Brewers not being anything but very interested in gaining that edge.

[Playing Catch]

47 minutes ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

There's massive risk adding anyone who plays a big role in your future on the 40 man this year. From not being able to play during a lockout in 2027 to potentially losing service time for nothing. I think the Brewers slow roll advancement this year

I don't think planning/expecting a lockout should have too much bearing on promotions. I think you raise some excellent points, and if, say, they lose an entire season, perhaps you are correct. But even during Covid, teams wanted to go try and win a World Series. If there is a 2027 playoffs, the Brewers will want to have their best team on the field, and their best team likely includes some prospects that have debuted and been given a little run to gain experience.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

56 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

I don't think planning/expecting a lockout should have too much bearing on promotions. I think you raise some excellent points, and if, say, they lose an entire season, perhaps you are correct. But even during Covid, teams wanted to go try and win a World Series. If there is a 2027 playoffs, the Brewers will want to have their best team on the field, and their best team likely includes some prospects that have debuted and been given a little run to gain experience.

Do you mean 2026 playoffs? I think the Brewers have positioned themselves well with the current 40 man roster with plenty of depth and talent for '26. When a 27 season gets played, this issue would be behind them and their best coming talent will have been able to keep playing and developing during minor league play with full 6 years of service time still intact

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I don't even think the Brewers would be making that big of a sacrifice to keep the next closest wave of talent off the 40 man this year. Of all the guys not currently on the 40 man already, only Jett is knocking on the door of the majors. All the Brewers would be doing would be taking one year off from aggressive advancement.

The names I see being mentioned as potential candidates to make MLB debuts in 26 who aren't already on the 40 man are: Jett, Made, Pratt, Wilken, Fischer, Lara, Burke, Pena, and Adams to varied levels of mention. The only one who would be controversial if not added this year would be Jett. Everyone else could easily be kept off the 40 man through all of 26 without an uproar. Everyone else hasn't even played in AAA yet. And given the circumstances, a full year in AAA is not some big ask

[Playing Catch]

12 minutes ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

Everyone else could easily be kept off the 40 man through all of 26 without an uproar. Everyone else hasn't even played in AAA yet. And given the circumstances, a full year in AAA is not some big ask

I completely agree with this. While the Brewers have been aggressive with their promotions in recent seasons, the current 40-man is deep enough that there's really no rush except for future Rule-5 eligibility considerations, which I haven't even looked at because none of their prospects have stagnated other than Black, Wilken, and perhaps Boeve or Brown Jr. (if one wants to include them with the rest --- after all, they were top picks, even though they were both pretty one-dimensional players), and with Wilken and Boeve, injuries have been pretty impactful.

[Team Canada]

22 hours ago, TURBO said:

That line-up would warrant a road trip to Nashville to catch a series!

That lineup would be a ton of fun. How many MLB teams would that one be able to beat?