Are the Brewers lucky?

[Frisbee Slider]

In honor of Saint Patrick's day, I thought it would be fun and appropriate to reflect on the role of luck in baseball.

• How can luck be meaningfully quantified?
• BABIP, HR / flyballs, xwOBA?
• Are the Brewers more lucky than other teams?
• Is luck just short-term randomness associated with positive outcomes? Or, are certain players prone to good luck?

A bonus thought, here is my favorite lucky play  of all-time.

 

[kestrel79]

No. I don't think we are lucky. If we were, we'd have at least one World Series to our name.

[owbc]

19 minutes ago, kestrel79 said:

No. I don't think we are lucky. If we were, we'd have at least one World Series to our name.

We've had some terrible postseason luck. The 2019 and 2024 teams could have both gone far if they had not been thwarted by blown saves. Then we finally win a series and run straight into the Dodgers' juggernaut. 

In terms of individual players, we like trading "lucky" over-performing players like Durbin and replacing them with "unlucky" players like Renfigo. 

[Frisbee Slider]

Brewers offense had second highest BABIP in MLB last season at .305. Only Boston was higher with .307. I assume Fenway Park is favorable to BABIP.

Milwaukee pitching allowed a BABIP of .280 last season, 6th lowest in MLB. For comparison, the Cubs allowed only a .273 BABIP. I appreciate that good defense plays a role in lowering BABIP.

 

 

[Frisbee Slider]

The highest season BABIP in Brewers franchise history belongs to Jose Hernandez with .405 in 2002. The runner up is Keston Hiura with .402 during his rookie season. 

Both sadly seem like luck to me. 
For reference, the highest season BABIP in MLB over the past sixty years is .411 (Naquin, Kemp and Colabello).

Minimum: 300 plate appearances 

[jay87shot]

I think over the course of 162 you are bound to have a few lucky games and a few unlucky. I think at least recently (going back to around the CC hiring time) we have create our own luck. When you have a team that is fast, runs out ground balls, plays matchups well, and plays defense you put pressure on the opponent and some of our "advance" stats will say we got lucky. 

Last year we had 10 players with a sprint speed 28 ft/sec or better, this year we likely add improvements of Hamilton over Mone, Mitchell/Perk/Lockridge or Collins, even more Vaughn over Hoskins is an athletic improvement. With Jett and some other potential prospect who could even add to that team speed more when they debut.

[markedman5]

There is obviously a lot of luck involved in baseball…….fortunately everybody has 162 games to hash it out…….not 17 like football or 82 in basketball.

In the bigger picture if it truly is luck……it’s impossible to be lucky year in and year out.

Brewers have made the playoffs 7 of the last 8 years in baseball’s smallest market…….they know what they are doing.

To me injury luck is the worst…….you can deal with the bad bounces……but losing a great player or 2 is harder to take.

[Frisbee Slider]

The Brewers must be lucky if they scored the third most runs in baseball last year with a lineup that is not even in the top 15 in the league according to MLB.com. 🙂

I know Milwaukee is always slighted but to not even merit honorable mention seems neglectful.

 

[cragi]

1 hour ago, Frisbee Slider said:

The Brewers must be lucky if they scored the third most runs in baseball last year with a lineup that is not even in the top 15 in the league according to MLB.com. 🙂

I know Milwaukee is always slighted but to not even merit honorable mention seems neglectful.

 

when you consider their lineup should be even or a net positive over last year, that borders on criminal

[Underachiever]

I think if the Brewers were lucky, they wouldn't have lost Yelich (x2), Devin Williams, and Woodruff (x2) late in the season.

[thebruce44]

The last 2 MVPs the team built around have gone onto *checks notes* 1- fail a drug test and 2- back and knee injuries.

Yeah, not lucky.