Injury updates

[gregmag]

19 hours ago, Turning2 said:

I don't care about what ever nerd mythical metrics and splits etc blah blah blah that modern baseball gets erect over.

Not that you’ll care, but this is where I went from “this is a serious person whom I disagree with but who’s making reasonable points that deserve serious attention” to “no he absolutely isn’t.”

Too bad, because that just leaves me stuck on my original disagreement — which is basically that people who pound the table for deadline moves relentlessly overestimate how much in-season additions help in the postseason, underestimate the value of prospects, and want to pay a premium for what guys did in the past, three mistakes whose avoidance has gotten the Brewers where they are.

[Turning2]

58 minutes ago, gregmag said:

Not that you’ll care, but this is where I went from “this is a serious person whom I disagree with but who’s making reasonable points that deserve serious attention” to “no he absolutely isn’t.”

Too bad, because that just leaves me stuck on my original disagreement — which is basically that people who pound the table for deadline moves relentlessly overestimate how much in-season additions help in the postseason, underestimate the value of prospects, and want to pay a premium for what guys did in the past, three mistakes whose avoidance has gotten the Brewers where they are.

Correct, I do not care, but so what? It doesn't matter either way. I prefer disagreement from the exchange of differing opinions over group think, where people get cowed into the herd lest they be shunned for independent thought. A certain talk show intellectual likes to say "I prefer clarity over agreement", which is something I identify with. 

If you've read more than a couple posts of mine, you will know that I'm fairly conservative about trade targets. I do not advocate for pursuing the marquee players. There is a lot of hype about how deep the farm system is. If you have a surplus, it doesn't make sense to not try and leverage some of it attempting to fix glaring holes. True, it doesn't always work, maybe even more often than not. But as Michael Scott / Dunder Mifflin famously says "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take" - Wayne Gretzky ". 

I will say I agree with Sveum about Ryan being more close to Burnes than my initial reaction. Burnes might have been trending down, but we also didn't get much for him because every GM knew we wouldn't / couldn't, pay him market rate (and shouldn't have). The Brewers are really handicapped in having their ability to bluff other teams castrated from them. I don't know what it would take to acquire Ryan, nobody does, but it's definitely worth pursuing. 

May be moot depending on the health status of Miz and Harrison. 

 

[SeaBass]

1 hour ago, gregmag said:

Not that you’ll care, but this is where I went from “this is a serious person whom I disagree with but who’s making reasonable points that deserve serious attention” to “no he absolutely isn’t.”

Too bad, because that just leaves me stuck on my original disagreement — which is basically that people who pound the table for deadline moves relentlessly overestimate how much in-season additions help in the postseason, underestimate the value of prospects, and want to pay a premium for what guys did in the past, three mistakes whose avoidance has gotten the Brewers where they are.

If people want this then they should just go be fans of the Padres. The Brewers have two more NLCS appearances this century than they do but they'll get the splashy moves fix they want so bad.

They have Mason Miller, a $200M+ payroll, a barren minor league system and a .500 record. But they're actually trying, y'all!

[Thurston Fluff]

22 hours ago, Turning2 said:

And that is exactly why this team is a perpetual carrot on a stick. It's always a year or two down the road when certain things are supposed to line up just right. Meanwhile they could more aggressively augment that prospect development by adding some impact along the way, players just below the top dollar guys. And they won't. 

The Brewers don't operate on the one magical year theory. They did under Melvin which culminated in 2011. It got us as far as the current way does. Minus 5 division titles and seven fewer playoff appearances. There is no such thing as a magical year until it happens. The only way to have one is to put yourself in position to have one as many times as possible.

[Turning2]

3 hours ago, SeaBass said:

If people want this then they should just go be fans of the Padres. The Brewers have two more NLCS appearances this century than they do but they'll get the splashy moves fix they want so bad.

They have Mason Miller, a $200M+ payroll, a barren minor league system and a .500 record. But they're actually trying, y'all!

Don't lump me in with that mindset. I've never advocated for pursuing top guys like Mason Miller at ridiculous prices or completely draining the farm chasing after greatness. It doesn't have to be "all in" or "almost nothing" in regard to the level of talent upgrade and potential impact of an acquisition(s).  There can be a middle ground. And that's how I view the caliber of player like Brooks Lee. Not a super star, but a reasonable upgrade. Doesn't have to be him specifically. 

It is more logical to expect an acquired very good / great player to markedly move the needle for his new ball club more than hurt them. It is also less logical to expect a serviceable / average player to markedly move the needle for his new ball club. Sure, the outcomes of such moves don't always follow the logic, and the impact of said players can be highly subjective. Does Milwaukee even have their one WS appearance if not for the huge trade for needle movers like Fingers, Vuck, Simmons, Sutton - maybe, maybe not. We're not likely to see that huge of a roster churn again because the economics are so much different now. It seems reasonable that they could make 2026 equivalent moves, whatever that might amount to. They absolutely should be able to upgrade 3B with a "Brooks Lee" type talent and "Joe Ryan" type starter, and no, that wouldn't decimate the farm or mortgage the future (of course, how that is defined is highly subjective too). 

 

[Jopal78]

4 hours ago, SeaBass said:

If people want this then they should just go be fans of the Padres. The Brewers have two more NLCS appearances this century than they do but they'll get the splashy moves fix they want so bad.

They have Mason Miller, a $200M+ payroll, a barren minor league system and a .500 record. But they're actually trying, y'all!

But isn’t the converse also true. If you got the prospect love shouldn’t you be a Rays fan? 
 

The count may be narrowing but the majority of the Brewers key contributors have still arrived via trade or as free agents. 
 

And ultimately the prospect game is a crap shoot, even the teams whose organization is skilled at developing amateur talent produces fewer stars than fans expect.  Take any organization and look at a prospect list and you’ll find it’s true.  (ex. 2021 Rays ((#1 system)) Franco, Luis Patino, Arozarena, Vidal Brujan, Brendan McKay. Xavier Edwards, McLanahan, Shane Baz, Taylor Walls, and Greg Jones!). 
 

Which isn’t to be ignorant and not recognize that a pipeline of quality young players is necessary for the Brewers to remain competitive. It’s just the tribalism of extreme prospect love that elevates the idea of “winning the trade” over actually improving the big league team. A healthy farm system is simply a means to sustained success, not an end itself. 

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[Underachiever]

15 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

But isn’t the converse also true. If you got the prospect love shouldn’t you be a Rays fan? 
 

The count may be narrowing but the majority of the Brewers key contributors have still arrived via trade or as free agents. 
 

And ultimately the prospect game is a crap shoot, even the teams whose organization is skilled at developing amateur talent produces fewer stars than fans expect.  Take any organization and look at a prospect list and you’ll find it’s true.  (ex. 2021 Rays ((#1 system)) Franco, Luis Patino, Arozarena, Vidal Brujan, Brendan McKay. Xavier Edwards, McLanahan, Shane Baz, Taylor Walls, and Greg Jones!). 
 

Which isn’t to be ignorant and not recognize that a pipeline of quality young players is necessary for the Brewers to remain competitive. It’s just the tribalism of extreme prospect love that elevates the idea of “winning the trade” over actually improving the big league team. A healthy farm system is simply a means to sustained success, not an end itself. 

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This kind of discussion always reminds of the Doyle Alexander-John Smoltz trade (and the Sabathia trade for MKE, of course). Haha, Tigers, you gave up a hall of famer for a 35-year-old pitcher. But, Alexander went 9-0 down the stretch in 1987 and got them into the playoffs, where they lost to the Twins. They held off Toronto by two games, and Alexander got the win against Toronto in the first game of the final series, where Detroit caught the Jays. 

Was that a bad trade for the Tigers? I'm sure it felt pretty good during that season. At some point, you have to give the front office some grace, and not re-litigate every trade 10 years down the road. I think all of the WAR computation for the various trades can get silly. Do you want an 8-WAR player this season, or a guy who gives you one WAR for 9 years so you can say you won the trade?

[JCREW]

Rob Z(ombie) has been placed on the 60-day IL.