Prospect Balance

[jay87shot]

I would anticipate that players like Logan Henderson, Shane Drohan, Robert Gasser, and Coleman Crow all graduate and lose prospect status at some point this year. I am starting to worry about the imbalance of prospects between pitching and hitting specifically what things will look like in say 2027. Some of our better young pitching prospects (Letson, Hardin, Dorchies) are off to rougher starts to the season and Thompson and Knoth haven't even pitched yet. I know it is a bit to early to fully worry about pitching in the minors a year or so down the road and the have been some very good starts inculding Manny Rodriguez, Deberry, Woodward, Renz, and Meccage (Bonet, Mercedes probably too). Should this be something we worry about as the season goes on or am I just over reacting to a few of our better pitching prospects having a few rough starts at the beginning of the year.

[liveforoctober]

33 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

I would anticipate that players like Logan Henderson, Shane Drohan, Robert Gasser, and Coleman Crow all graduate and lose prospect status at some point this year. I am starting to worry about the imbalance of prospects between pitching and hitting specifically what things will look like in say 2027. Some of our better young pitching prospects (Letson, Hardin, Dorchies) are off to rougher starts to the season and Thompson and Knoth haven't even pitched yet. I know it is a bit to early to fully worry about pitching in the minors a year or so down the road and the have been some very good starts inculding Manny Rodriguez, Deberry, Woodward, Renz, and Meccage (Bonet, Mercedes probably too). Should this be something we worry about as the season goes on or am I just over reacting to a few of our better pitching prospects having a few rough starts at the beginning of the year.

I think the biggest difference for me mentally with pitching over hitting re: our system is that we have control over our entire MLB pitching staff (sans Woodruff) for the next half decade. A legit 8+ arms that we have for a long time... So the NEED for pitching prospects isn't as dire and we can be a bit more patient with the guys on the lower levels.

The work never stops but from an arms perspective there is space to breathe given the depth and youth at the top level.

[SF70]

23 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

I would anticipate that players like Logan Henderson, Shane Drohan, Robert Gasser, and Coleman Crow all graduate and lose prospect status at some point this year. I am starting to worry about the imbalance of prospects between pitching and hitting specifically what things will look like in say 2027. Some of our better young pitching prospects (Letson, Hardin, Dorchies) are off to rougher starts to the season and Thompson and Knoth haven't even pitched yet. I know it is a bit to early to fully worry about pitching in the minors a year or so down the road and the have been some very good starts inculding Manny Rodriguez, Deberry, Woodward, Renz, and Meccage (Bonet, Mercedes probably too). Should this be something we worry about as the season goes on or am I just over reacting to a few of our better pitching prospects having a few rough starts at the beginning of the year.

System pitching is set to explode starting this season. We have a ton of arm talent returning from injury that by midseason will start to make their mark.

Woodward-Galindez-Knoth-Broughton-Low all returning from TJ, all talented arms. Thompson & Episcope should both be back pitching again within the next month. 

Letson-Dorchies off to slow starts, but Hardin has looked good with BA pointing out his stuff has taken a step-up.

The upper-minors are stacked with arm talent and the BL team is full of 5 & 6 years controlled solid or better SP.

 

[sveumrules]

Good topic. 

Hot hitters like Adamczewski (38 PA of 216 wRC+), Pena (43 PA of 178 wRC+), Payne (37 PA of 167 wRC+), Lara (83 PA of 162 wRC+), O'Rae (67 PA of 161 wRC+), Made (74 PA of 160 wRC+), Dinges (41 PA of 154 wRC+), and Burke (72 PA of 133 wRC+) have definitely outnumbered their pitching counterparts here in the early part of the season.

Since the big five of Hader, Peralta, Woodruff, Burnes and Williams graduated the Brewers have really only developed and graduated, what, three arms on the current active roster? Ashby, Uribe and Misio. I guess four if you count CRod, but he is more of an up/down guy.

If we zoom it out to the 40 Man that adds Henderson and Yoho as potential long term guys with a chance to make an impact.

After that it's in the trade zone. Priester, Patrick, Harrison, Sproat, Gasser, Crow, Drohan among the SP options with Megill, Zerpa, Anderson, Hall, Koenig all on the trade side out of the pen.

Ultimately I think there are three things helping me see past the early season struggles from some of the minors arms...(1) it's early (2) with the acknowledgement that pitcher attrition rates are unrelenting the upper level depth is much better than the lower levels (3) looks like Arnold could maybe have a surplus of hitters in the coming years to deal from and he's proven pretty adept on that front over his first few seasons.

[Tedaldtada]

I was digging through the org this morning. My main thought; throw more strikes boys, if you can. Walk rates are way too high. My second thought; it’s early. If you dig, there are some really nice performances, even on the mound. 

[sveumrules]

3 minutes ago, Tedaldtada said:

I was digging through the org this morning. My main thought; throw more strikes boys, if you can. Walk rates are way too high. My second thought; it’s early. If you dig, there are some really nice performances, even on the mound. 

For sure. Guys like Tate Kuehner (20.2 IP of 87 ERA- | 65 FIP-), Stiven Cruz (12.1 IP of 68 ERA- | 74 FIP-), Will Childers (9 IP of 0 ERA- | 38 FIP-), Brian Fitzpatrick (8.1 IP of 0 ERA- | 43 FIP-), and Mark Manfredi (7.1 IP of 23 ERA- | 36 FIP-) have all had encouraging small sample starts at the upper levels.

None of them are on the MLB Top 30 (looks like Kuehner is #34 on FG list) but it wouldn't surprise me to see all five of them end up in MLB at some point even if middle relief is probably the ceiling for everybody except Tate who still has a shot at a back end starter or maybe something like a Koenig 7th inning guy.

[wallus]

Letson and Dorchies have more than enough potential to be a part of the "next wave" of pitching prospects.

 

[jay87shot]

13 hours ago, wallus said:

Letson and Dorchies have more than enough potential to be a part of the "next wave" of pitching prospects.

 

I have been looking at them as the leaders of the next wave and mainly their rough starts are my worry. It only takes a good start from each and a lot of concerns will go out the door. We have so many arms that I think are easily projectable as 3-4 starters or solid bullpen arms, but Letson and Dorchies are the best young candidates for top of the rotation arms.

The point liveforoctober made about have 8 or so controllable young guys at the big leagues is probably though the best point not to be concerned about the 19/20/21 year old pitchers. We have time and resources to supplement as needed.

[eklinka]

58 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

I have been looking at them as the leaders of the next wave and mainly their rough starts are my worry. It only takes a good start from each and a lot of concerns will go out the door. We have so many arms that I think are easily projectable as 3-4 starters or solid bullpen arms, but Letson and Dorchies are the best young candidates for top of the rotation arms.

The point liveforoctober made about have 8 or so controllable young guys at the big leagues is probably though the best point not to be concerned about the 19/20/21 year old pitchers. We have time and resources to supplement as needed.

Yep, Dorchies is only 19 in high A and Letson, 21 in AA. Pitchers require more seasoning than position players. Even the best pitching prospects usually don't come up to the majors until at least 23 at the earliest.