Brewers (Henderson) vs Cardinals (Pallante): 7/9/26, 6:45pm

[willie key]

20 minutes ago, liveforoctober said:

It's more a curiosity to me than anything why the IGT grumps protect Vaughn but ridicule EVERYONE else. Sanchez swings at a ball out of the zone "undisciplined". Turang goes 0-4 "only cares about launch angle". Ashby grooves a fastball "we can't trust him in October". Mitchell strikes out "will forever have a hole in his swing".

Vaughn goes 4-23 to start July with 1 xbh and no RBI (against mainly rhp!) and leaves 8000 men on base.... "must be hard for him to get in a groove" "bad luck at bats" "everyone goes through these spells" "free Vaughn!"

I like the guy too... but y'all are funny.

 

All the good players line Turang have grace periods.   If they go into a prolonged funk people will get on them but no one will advocate for them to be benched.  Same as Chourio Contreras etc

Vaughn is in his grace period and will get ripped if it continues I just thought it was incredibly lame that people have been ripping about the whole right handedness thing and he was literally better than Yelich and frelick etc 

i didn’t waste my time looking at it before until tonight.    It just seemed weird after an 0-4 game people came flying in with the hit and run I told you so posts.    I didn’t know the whole Vaughn thing made people look bad or so salty I guess

 

who cares ultimately.   I think he can hit and was a good addition last year

[Team Canada]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

I assume you mean Uribe was already up because he was warming for the 8th because Ashby got into some trouble?

Correct, he started warming in the 8th, so you might as well bring him in at that pointn.

[Outlander]

7 hours ago, willie key said:

 Vaughn is better against right handers than Yelich is.    Good lord

now I’m ok if the brewers might not want to play him all the time because they still don’t know if his hand can take it.   Does makes sense to rest EVERY ONCE IN AWHILE against righties

But he’s still a better hitter than most of the players on the team 

That's the the thing, he isn't but Murphy has put him down n position to succeed. People complain but Murphy actually might know what he is doing.

[BruisedCrew]

The unanswerable question about Vaughn is whether he would be hitting better if he had been getting more consistent ABs all along. 

There’s no question that Yelich has been horrible for some time now and there is certainly a rational argument that the offense would have been better off if he had gotten more ABs as DH than Yelich, even against RHP.

When someone says that Yelich should be moved down in the order, that seems to support that argument. Vaughn’ seems better suited to batting sixth or seventh than Yelich in his current state.

[BruisedCrew]

5 hours ago, Team Canada said:

Correct, he started warming in the 8th, so you might as well bring him in at that pointn.

Maybe I wasn’t watching the game closely enough, or had my eyes closed as Ashby was putting the runners on to bring the tying run to the plate. 

The first time I saw Uribe throwing was in the top of the 9th alongside Yoho. It looked like a situation where they were going to bring Uribe in unless the lead got significantly larger. 

If Uribe was already heating up in the 8th and would have replaced Ashby if he put another runner on it does make sense to just bring him in for the 9th instead of heating up Megill too. 

[Yaz19]

And the Brewers start this morning 1 1/2 games behind LA for the best record in the league.  Sweep the Pirates!

[TURBO]

Tall order vs both Ashcraft and Skenes...  If the Miz does in fact pitch Sunday vs Skenes, that should be a doosey! (even though Skenes hasn't looked himself lately)

[Underachiever]

3 hours ago, Outlander said:

People complain but Murphy actually might know what he is doing.

You must not read the IGTs.

[StearnsFTW]

12 hours ago, sveumrules said:

2023 Brewers
4.49 R/G | 4.24 BaseRuns
93 wRC+ | .309 wOBA

2024 Brewers
4.80 R/G | 4.77 BaseRuns
105 wRC+ | .319 wOBA

2025 Brewers
4.98 R/G | 4.77 BaseRuns
107 wRC+ | .322 wOBA

2026 Brewers
5.11 R/G | 4.84 BaseRuns
104 wRC+ | .324 wOBA (season)
109 wRC+ | .332 wOBA (since May 4th)

FanGraphs Depth Charts is projecting them to score 4.57 runs per game rest of season. I would say that is more a case of them being slow to recognize this is the Brewers 3rd straight year of pretty big improvements over 2023 than it is confirmation they have a middle of the pack offense. Especially considering these are the same projections that have sold the Brewers short by 87 wins over the last nine full seasons (& are on pace for another double digit underage this year).

Since Murphy took over in 2024 the Brewers have scored 4.94 R/G (4th) with a 105 wRC+ (7th) over 417 games, I would say that is a better representation of their elusive "true talent level" as an offense than the projections with a proven history of underselling the Brewers to a large extent.

Projections are also context neutral so they aren't giving the Brewers any credit for their 4,486 PA with RISP being the most in MLB since Murphy took over with a 117 wRC+ (3rd) that has produced 1,600 runs (1st) and a +184.71 RE24 (3rd) over that stretch.

Turang has a 124 wRC+ over his last 1,056 PA, FGDC has him at 106 rest of season. 
Vaughn has a 145 wRC+ over 417 PA with MIL, FGDC has him at 107 rest of season.
Bauers has a 144 wRC+ over his last 382 PA, FGDC has him at 115 rest of season.
Chourio has a 128 wRC+ over his last 564 PA, FGDC has him at 116 rest of season.
Mitchell has a 120 wRC+ over 732 career PA, FGDC has him at 106 rest of season.

I'm not saying none of these guys will regress, but the penalties seem especially harsh (to me anyway) considering Chourio should still be improving as a 22yo, Turang's demonstrated improvements since debuting, plus Mitchell and Vaughn still being in what has typically been considered the prime window at 27/28yo.

I almost quoted that post but I thought I'd wait to see if anyone else did.

 

My patience paid off in spades. 

[Team Canada]

4 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

Maybe I wasn’t watching the game closely enough, or had my eyes closed as Ashby was putting the runners on to bring the tying run to the plate. 

The first time I saw Uribe throwing was in the top of the 9th alongside Yoho. It looked like a situation where they were going to bring Uribe in unless the lead got significantly larger. 

If Uribe was already heating up in the 8th and would have replaced Ashby if he put another runner on it does make sense to just bring him in for the 9th instead of heating up Megill too. 

I can't say what level of activity he was doing, as I wasn't watching, but on the radio as Ashby was getting into his jam they said Abner was starting to warm up. Whether it was just stretching and they could have stopped and moved to Megill when he got out of it, I'm not sure. Or maybe they just decided that either way Uribe would be next.

[BruisedCrew]

24 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

I almost quoted that post but I thought I'd wait to see if anyone else did.

 

My patience paid off in spades. 

I didn’t feel like quoting it and addressing it in an IGT that will be archived soon. Maybe during the All Star break when nothing else is going on I’ll revisit the issue and we can discuss why a team that is averaging 5 runs per game for the whole season has more than once in the last 10 weeks gone 30 days or more at a pace significantly lower than that. It has also fallen from its scoring pace from April when it barely won half its games. 

Maybe the answer is that some of the advanced metrics would say that the Brewers should be scoring more than they actually are scoring. 

And before the pitchforks, tar and feathers come out, I should make it clear that I’m not saying the Brewers suck and that their offense is terrible. I’m just not convinced by results and my (maybe lying) eyes that it as elite as some are making it out to be. 
 

 

[StearnsFTW]

I'm not going to get into detail like Sveumrules did, mainly because I can't, but they're 9th in OPS and 4th in runs.

 

That's really good.  I'm with not even sure how that's debatable. 

[mudbutt]

They aren’t firing on all cylinders at the moment but every team has downswings. Hitting is hard these days. Yea of course it would be nice to have better hitters in spots but that’s every team. Brewers are better off than most so hooray.

[BruisedCrew]

51 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

I'm not going to get into detail like Sveumrules did, mainly because I can't, but they're 9th in OPS and 4th in runs.

 

That's really good.  I'm with not even sure how that's debatable. 

The specific debate now is about what to expect going forward based on what we’ve see to date. There was also a comment the other day about having the Brewers having great run prevention and great offense.

I think if you look at game by game and series by series results the Brewers record is more a matter of outstanding run prevention and enough offense to turn that into wins.

Using a lot of numbers for different measures over various periods of time  may not be as persuasive to some people as it is to others. I like to understand what those things are supposed to measure, and it is not  unusual for me to conclude that those measures have some flaws of their own. 

The issue now is not whether the Brewers have a “really good” team. Their recent regular season success has upped the standard to whether they have what it takes to go to or win the World Series without relying on an unlikely  hot streak.