Mets (Peralta) vs Brewers (Misiorowski): 7/20/26, 6:40pm

[wiguy94]

16 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Yelich moved to primary leadoff guy on May 26th, so coming up on two months now. In that time he has batted leadoff in 38 of the team's 48 games.

Since that date Christian is at 198 PA of 231/335/331 (90 wRC+) with a 12.1 BB% and 28.8 K%. His actual .303 wOBA is a perfect match for his .303 xwOBA so StatCast thinks he is getting just what he deserves.

The somewhat good news is that he has at least sequenced his few positive outcomes well notching +0.32 Win Probability Added over this recent leadoff stretch with 57 PA of 128 wRC+ with RISP versus 116 PA of 84 wRC+ with the bases empty.

The even better news is that even with Christian putting up a below average batting line while serving as the primary leadoff hitter since May 26th (& getting the 3rd most PA on the team since that date) the offense as a whole has hit for a 112 wRC+ (7th) while scoring 5.23 R/G (5th) over that stretch en route to an MLB best 31 W - 17 L record (.646 W%) over those 48 games (though only 24 W - 14 L for a .632 W% in the 38 games Yelich batted lead off).

Before Yelich moved to primary leadoff the Brewers were 31 W - 20 L for a .608 W%.

I appreciate the effort you put into your posts but I think posting team records before and after Yelich began leading off is misleading because the before sample includes a large portion where Vaughn and Chourio were hurt and this team really took off when those two got healthy. Brewers were 13-5 between Chourio and Vaughn coming back on 5/4 and Yelich being moved to leadoff on 5/26.

[Gump]

Going to be a heck of a game tonight. Can’t wait 

[Yaz19]

39 minutes ago, YelichPosse said:

FREE LARA!

Oh man, this takes me back to the FREE NATE ORF days on this site.  lol

[sveumrules]

13 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I appreciate the effort you put into your posts but I think posting team records before and after Yelich began leading off is misleading because the before sample includes a large portion where Vaughn and Chourio were hurt and this team really took off when those two got healthy. Brewers were 13-5 between Chourio and Vaughn coming back on 5/4 and Yelich being moved to leadoff on 5/26.

Yelich was hurt for a good portion of that sample too though.

Before getting hurt he was at 56 PA of 122 wRC+ (greatly aided by a .417 BABIP) and his +0.86 WPA was second on the team behind Turang over the first 15 games.

Small sample all around but during the 15 games that Yelich was healthy to start the year (with no Chourio and Vaughn) the team had a 102 wRC+ and scored 5.33 R/G versus a 93 wRC+ and scoring 4.75 R/G over the 36 games that all three of he, Chourio, and Vaughn were injured to start, then back for a bit before Yelich moved to leadoff.

[TURBO]

12 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Yelich was hurt for a good portion of that sample too though.

Before getting hurt he was at 56 PA of 122 wRC+ (greatly aided by a .417 BABIP) and his +0.86 WPA was second on the team behind Turang over the first 15 games.

Small sample all around but during the 15 games that Yelich was healthy to start the year (with no Chourio and Vaughn) the team had a 102 wRC+ and scored 5.33 R/G versus a 93 wRC+ and scoring 4.75 R/G over the 36 games that all three of he, Chourio, and Vaughn were injured to start, then back for a bit before Yelich moved to leadoff.

So help the slow guys, you are saying that you agree with Yelich leading off, even though he has pretty much sucked in doing so?  Because our record is better with him at lead-off, he has done his job, and we should just quit complaining?  We couldn't do better with someone else hitting in that position?

[sveumrules]

Just now, TURBO said:

So help the slow guys, you are saying that you agree with Yelich leading off, even though he has pretty much sucked in doing so?  Because our record is better with him at lead-off, he has done his job, and we should just quit complaining?  We couldn't do better with someone else hitting in that position?

What I'm saying is that despite Yelich being a below average hitter overall since moving to primary leadoff (90 wRC+), he has at least timed his few positive outcomes well (+0.32 WPA), so it hasn't had nearly as deleterious an effect on the team's fortunes (MLB best .646 W% over last 48 games) as the constant IGT complaining might imply.

Could the Brewers have played even better than their MLB best .646 W% (104/105 Win full season pace) over the last 48 games? Could they have played even better than their .626 W% (101/102 Win full season pace) that is 1/2 game behind the Dodgers for the whole season? Sure, I guess, if you believe their True Talent Level is over 100 Wins.

I know that coming into the season I didn't expect them to win 100 games so it's hard for me to complain too much about the specific details of how they are proving me wrong to this point and blowing past my expectations (again).

I'm mostly just kicking back and enjoying it (again).

[TURBO]

I just have a really hard time accepting less than our best. 

Some of the things we do could easily be improved, but I think Murphy and the front office like to do what you do, kick back, relax and enjoy, even though there are improvements that can be made on a daily basis that would promote even more success.

 

[liveforoctober]

1 minute ago, TURBO said:

I just have a really hard time accepting less than our best. 

Some of the things we do could easily be improved, but I think Murphy and the front office like to do what you do, kick back, relax and enjoy, even though there are improvements that can be made on a daily basis that would promote even more success.

 

Free Vaughn!

[HarryDoyle]

Nice of BA and Rock to take a day off from their day jobs to call tonight's game. Must be a big game.

[edfunderburk]

1 hour ago, owbc said:

As for Yelich, I honestly don't care. He has league average wOBA, a .330 OBP, and is a plus baserunner. There are worse options for leadoff hitter. 

I’m guilty of being frustrated by Yelich playing everyday & hitting in the lead off spot. Then, by chance, I noticed that his stats are eerily similar to the $60M per year man - Kyle Tucker.

Finally, I see a contract that will age worse than Yeli’s contract. Misery loves company. It excites me to know that Dodgers fans are as frustrated by one of their highly paid players as I am by Yelich’s underperformance & high salary.

Some night call me petty. 

[adambr2]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Yelich moved to primary leadoff guy on May 26th, so coming up on two months now. In that time he has batted leadoff in 38 of the team's 48 games.

Since that date Christian is at 198 PA of 231/335/331 (90 wRC+) with a 12.1 BB% and 28.8 K%. His actual .303 wOBA is a perfect match for his .303 xwOBA so StatCast thinks he is getting just what he deserves.

The somewhat good news is that he has at least sequenced his few positive outcomes well notching +0.32 Win Probability Added over this recent leadoff stretch with 57 PA of 128 wRC+ with RISP versus 116 PA of 84 wRC+ with the bases empty.

The even better news is that even with Christian putting up a below average batting line while serving as the primary leadoff hitter since May 26th (& getting the 3rd most PA on the team since that date) the offense as a whole has hit for a 112 wRC+ (7th) while scoring 5.23 R/G (5th) over that stretch en route to an MLB best 31 W - 17 L record (.646 W%) over those 48 games (though only 24 W - 14 L for a .632 W% in the 38 games Yelich batted lead off).

Before Yelich moved to primary leadoff the Brewers were 31 W - 20 L for a .608 W%.

I think you are far too smart of a stat guy to even imply that the Brewers’ record since Yelich started leading off is somehow correlated in any way to Yelich’s mediocre performance.

[HarryDoyle]

Because the Brewers made a deserved highlight video for Freddy for the fans to enjoy, I'm sure it forced them to do the same for Devin Williams.

[Bulldogboy]

4-3

[edfunderburk]

Soto’s $750M contract is worth roughly 50% of the Brewers franchise value

[Yaz19]

Someone get on the horn to the Brewers and tell them give Yelich #43 already

[TURBO]

Just now, edfunderburk said:

Soto’s $750M contract is worth roughly 50% of the Brewers franchise value

Now do some of the Dodger's players...  :)

[sveumrules]

3 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I think you are far too smart of a stat guy to even imply that the Brewers’ record since Yelich started leading off is somehow correlated in any way to Yelich’s mediocre performance.

There is a small degree of correlation with the performance of every player on the roster during that stretch.

Of course Yelich hitting for a 90 wRC+ overall since moving to primary leadoff hasn't been a driving factor.

But his +0.32 WPA indicates he hasn't hurt the team overall from a Win Probability Added standpoint given the contextual game factors he faced over the course of his cumulative PAs either.

116 PA of 84 wRC+ with bases empty
57 PA of 128 wRC+ with RISP

71 PA of 77 wRC+ low leverage
27 PA of 133 wRC+ high leverage

That's how you get a positive WPA with a below average wRC+.

[yourout]

Did we actually score first?

[edfunderburk]

Wow! We scored first. Amazing!

[HarryDoyle]

3 minutes ago, Yaz19 said:

Someone get on the horn to the Brewers and tell them give Yelich #43 already

Maybe I'll order a custom jersey of that.

[edfunderburk]

I hope we put a 10 spot on Freddy & then trade a low level prospect for him before the Mets leave Milwaukee 

[yourout]

1 minute ago, edfunderburk said:

I hope we put a 10 spot on Freddy & then trade a low level prospect for him before the Mets leave Milwaukee 

I was thinking the same thing.

[edfunderburk]

Freddy’s greatest attribute as a pitcher is he stays healthy & can eat innings (usually five) every six days

[wallus]

Freddy's stuff doesn't look the same. I feel bad for him to have this happen in a contract year.

[Opening Day]

1 minute ago, wallus said:

Freddy's stuff doesn't look the same. I feel bad for him to have this happen in a contract year.

I felt a little bad watching the Brewers hitting him.  I want the Brewers to win, obviously.   But Freddy seems like god guy who had a lot of good years for the Brewers.  I wouldn't of minded a strong outing for him with the Mets finding a way to lose.