BREAKING: Brewers Trade For Dustin May And JoJo Romero

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

1 minute ago, BrewerFan said:

See Gausman, Kevin.

Or... ya know, MOST of the pitchers traded. That's how. 

That doesn't connect at all, though.

Maybe the Brewers like May and Romero a lot more than Gausman. Maybe the Blue Jays valued what they got from the Cubs really highly. Maybe the Brewers are just not that high on Frias and Ragsdale. 

It's fine to THINK we gave up too much. But the certainty with which some folks have pronounced it is a big red flag that undercuts their take. I promise you, most big-league GMs are very fluent in uncertainty and very aware that the error bars around prospect evaluations are massive.

[MrTPlush]

2 minutes ago, TURBO said:

Look at the Cardinals fans reactions online...

They think they made fools of us, and I think they are correct.

Not a single one of their fans knew a single thing about either of these players before  they searched “Brewers prospect rankings” I bet not a single fan could have named their position by player name.

Why would I care about their opinion at that point?

[brewers888]

1 minute ago, MrTPlush said:

I can’t speak for all places and all people, but Fangraphs is being referenced here quite a bit for their high ranking of Frias.

The lead prospect analyst at Fangraphs has zero years of experience evaluating talent for MLB teams. Certainly many of these people have experience and time to research prospects…and can talk to scouts and front office personnel…but I just feel their opinions get weighted much too highly and that reality of actual team evaluation may not always match it.

I defer to both Spencer and Joseph our leading prospect experts and both of them strongly dislike the deal.

[trwi7]

Mize just got traded for way, way, way, way less and he's better than May..

[homer]

2 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

That doesn't connect at all, though.

Maybe the Brewers like May and Romero a lot more than Gausman. Maybe the Blue Jays valued what they got from the Cubs really highly. Maybe the Brewers are just not that high on Frias and Ragsdale. 

It's fine to THINK we gave up too much. But the certainty with which some folks have pronounced it is a big red flag that undercuts their take. I promise you, most big-league GMs are very fluent in uncertainty and very aware that the error bars around prospect evaluations are massive.

several fangraphs writers have gone on to work for big league clubs 

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 hours ago, DonBarclay said:

How is he the Brewers 3rd best starter now? By what measure? Drohan and Henderson both have better FIP, WHIP, ERA, ERA+, K/BB, etc. Essentially all 3 the same in Stuff +. 

I don’t see how May upgrades the roster for the postseason. 

Post-season, perhaps not. I think these acquisitions today are mostly about trying to limit innings for an awfully young rotation while also spreading out the BP innings. Making moves at the deadline for that reason isn't very sexy but it can be quite important.

That's not to say the price wasn't too high, though.

[jay87shot]

I like May and feel he can definitely help us in the playoffs, his stuff is superb. But this is to big of a price for rentals, especially May who hasnt had an era under 4 since 2023. Being that it is the Cards makes it a tough pill to swallow. Had we given these guys to the Mets for Weaver or Holmes and a reliever that is one thing.

I am happy we are at least putting ourselves in a better position to take on the Dodgers. However why Frias, he could be a top 20 prospect by midseason next year.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

4 minutes ago, MilwaukeeBeers said:

I think the ceiling is too high to deal for rentals of this caliber. I am fine selling high if that is what they think they are doing...I just think the value they got for these assets is poor. I really hope this one doesn't bite us. Overall I hated this deadline because we didn't even get a bat which was my primary hope. 

 

They really must think Frias will never lift the ball. I tend to agree the swing is ugly but there is better ways to use these assets. 

This I completely get. 

Honestly? I don't think I would have done this deal. But I think the trade deadline is always a seller's market, and the Brewers are usually better sitting it out and dealing with the bad press. They never care about the press anyway.

That said, I can see an argument for why May and Romero are valuable enough to warrant two very, very young OFers from a system chock full of them. Maybe the Brewers just think this is the highest those players will ever be valued. I guess we'll find out who's right by 2030.

[MrTPlush]

5 minutes ago, trwi7 said:

Mize just got traded for way, way, way, way less and he's better than May..

Honest question, do you think we didn’t call on Mize first? And probably offered these same prospects? 
 

I feel like the Tigers would disagree with your assessment.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

3 minutes ago, homer said:

several fangraphs writers have gone on to work for big league clubs 

Because they are right more than average. I bet they were wrong a lot. Because everyone is. The rates are just much higher on internet forums.

The reality is, reputable publication miss all the time. Just like good hitters strike out all the time. This trade might be terrible! It would just be nice if the detractors would admit there's a reasonable chance it'll work out just fine.

[homer]

2 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

Because they are right more than average. I bet they were wrong a lot. Because everyone is. The rates are just much higher on internet forums.

The reality is, reputable publication miss all the time. Just like good hitters strike out all the time. This trade might be terrible! It would just be nice if the detractors would admit there's a reasonable chance it'll work out just fine.

also this;

 

FanGraphs features prominent baseball writers and analysts with professional front-office and scouting backgrounds, most notably Kevin Goldstein (former Houston Astros Special Assistant to the General Manager and Director of Pro Scouting) and Eric Longenhagen (lead prospect analyst who formerly worked in pro scouting for the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Angels).

[adambr2]

Just now, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

But I think the trade deadline is always a seller's market, 

I keep seeing this and I bet that most Tiger fans wish their organization was informed.

You can’t just chalk it up a a sellers market when not everyone is paying the same prices for the same positions.

[TURBO]

24 minutes ago, ecjimg said:

And somehow the Guardians got an allstar starter for 4 low level prospects 

Oh man, Griffin would have looked pretty nice in our rotation...

[edfunderburk]

27 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

My wife's also beautiful. If she's got stomach poisoning and craps down her leg, I'm not going to pretend she didn't because she's been great in the past and is otherwise great.

I can’t stop laughing 🤣 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Just now, adambr2 said:

I keep seeing this and I bet that most Tiger fans wish their organization was informed.

You can’t just chalk it up a a sellers market when not everyone is paying the same prices for the same positions.

It's possible teams evaluate prospects differently, isn't it? We're not talking about crude oil, where there's a price based on tons of daily transactions. People pay different prices because everyone has their own evaluation systems, their own scouts, and their own computer models.

[BrewerFan]

31 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

Nah, we'll just let the Porsche sit in the garage.

The reality is, we have NO IDEA if this is "half price." The value of an asset is what you can get someone to pay for the asset. And we can index that to all kinds of different indicators, but I guarantee the Brewers weren't looking at a full price offer and decided to take the half price one.

Maybe you think they should've been able to get more. Okay. Maybe you think they shouldn't have moved these guys at all. That's fine too. But let's not get all high and mighty with "value-based thinking" and then throw out a spurious argument by analogy. 

If the Brewers regret this trade, they'll do so in 2028 or 2029. Borrowing from theoretical future value is how these transactions work. The fact is, the Brewers valued these guys at Dustin May and JoJo Romero. They probably have a lot more information to base that on than we do, and the idea that they have other prospects they like more is probably part of the calculus. I would argue that your jump to call that line of thinking dumb is what's moving us away from "value-based thinking."

Ok, so if the Brewers do it, it's right because... they're the Brewers and they're on the inside and know these players. 

That's... that's the argument here?

Also, please do explain how it's "high and mighty" with the "value based thinking," because you think you gave up a premium prospect, an 18-year-old in full season ball for a rental and an injured reliever?

Of courser that line of thinking is dumb though. It's just objectively dumb. If YOUR argument is they traded Ragsdale or Frias because... welp, they already paid Lara 31M so.... it doesn't matter what you trade Frias for! 

This type of thinking would have applied to Jackson Chourio when we had Frlick, Black, Wiemer and Mitchell all in the top 100 and a young prospect in Jackson Chourio who you could have traded for any marginal improvement because it's "high and mighty" to try and get VALUE for a prospect and it's "dumb" to trade prospects for pennies on the dollar... and to a division rival because you have other players at that position in the big leagues.

Of course the fact that you have other players at the position has nothing to do with with it, the fact that you traded him for pennies on the dollar is the more relevant issue here. 

The Cubs got Gausman for two prospects, neither were even CLOSE to Frias and we added Ragsdale. But that doesn't matter because... talking about value, again... "high and mighty."

Can you explain how?


Now, how high and mighty am I being where I say "I didn't want to trade Made for Skubal?" Is that the highest and mightiest?

[brewers888]

Its especially brutal because this deal is with St Louis. If we made this same exact deal with an AL team or even a non divisional national league one it wouldn't feel as bad. 

[willie key]

6 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Honest question, do you think we didn’t call on Mize first? And probably offered these same prospects? 
 

I feel like the Tigers would disagree with your assessment.

We might be pissed at the tigers and not want to deal with them.    It seems more and more something shady was going on with the skubal dodgers thing

[BrewerFan]

1 minute ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

It's possible teams evaluate prospects differently, isn't it? We're not talking about crude oil, where there's a price based on tons of daily transactions. People pay different prices because everyone has their own evaluation systems, their own scouts, and their own computer models.

You just asked a rhetorical question and then answered it... 

[LouisEly]

4 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

I think the trade deadline is always a seller's market

It is.  Supply and demand.  With the new playoff format, there are now fewer sellers. 

May is a very good starting pitcher.  Not of Skubal's ceiling, but he's one of only seven pitchers with a complete game shutout this season.  Others on that list include Miz, Sanchez, Cease, and Alcantara.  Skubal is not on that list.  Nor is Mize.

I'd bet a large sum of money that there were plenty of other teams asking about May..  If the Brewers offer less, they don't get him.  Then what?  We get 50 pages about how the Brewers don't care about winning, hanging the top farm system in baseball banner, etc.

[Waunakee]

Old guy here.  Think there are possibly a few overreactions here.  The Brewers do have a history of  trading the next great outfielder who turned out not to be to the Cardinals.  Last time though the outfielder was the main reason we got back 2 Hall of Famers, our ace and 1982 followed but  David Green was suppose to be >>>>>>> Alexander Frias.  You all may be right but this Brewer front office seems pretty professional about evaluating baseball talent to me.

[BrewerFan]

5 minutes ago, edfunderburk said:

I can’t stop laughing 🤣 

It's the only way I can think of Matt Arnold right now... 

[willie key]

What people don’t understand is Arnold has found the real market efficiency in which we have now found a way to have the opponent score negative runs in a game.     We are now going to be able to win games even while being shutout

 

just going to throw 100 different pitchers each game

 

[jw5511986]

Just now, willie key said:

What people don’t understand is Arnold has found the real market efficiency in which we have now found a way to have the opponent score negative runs in a game.     We are now going to be able to win games even while being shutout

 

just going to throw 100 different pitchers each game

 

It's working pretty well so far. Take a step back from the ledge for a couple minutes.

[BrewerFan]

1 minute ago, LouisEly said:

It is.  Supply and demand.  With the new playoff format, there are now fewer sellers. 

May is a very good starting pitcher.  Not of Skubal's ceiling, but he's one of only seven pitchers with a complete game shutout this season.  Others on that list include Miz, Sanchez, Cease, and Alcantara.  Skubal is not on that list.  Nor is Mize.

I'd bet a large sum of money that there were plenty of other teams asking about May..  If the Brewers offer less, they don't get him.  Then what?  We get 50 pages about how the Brewers don't care about winning, hanging the top farm system in baseball banner, etc.

Louis... c'mon. 

Are you seriously not only using one stat like complete games to put pitchers in one group and then saying if you're complaining about the cost... well, we could have just not done anything and then people would also be complaining. 


So you think it was either do nothing OR we HAD to give up Frias for a rental and an injured reliever?