Dustin May Was the Second-Best Starter Available at the Deadline, And the Brewers Got Him

[Jake McKibbin]

Image courtesy of IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Dustin May's 4.38 ERA is the first thing many fans will see after the Brewers acquired him at the trade deadline. It's also the reason some believe Milwaukee paid too much. The underlying numbers tell a very different story. Those numbers suggest Dustin May had the strongest statistical case to be the second-best starting pitcher available at the deadline, and could be a crucial arm for Milwaukee's bid to reach the World Series. 

May's recent history is important. Coming off a series of significant injuries, including two Tommy John surgeries in 2021 and 2023 and a torn esophagus in 2024, he had a rough 2025 split between the LA Dodgers and the Boston Red Sox. May posted a 4.96 earned run average (ERA), a 4.87 fielder-independent pitching (FIP), and a 1.42 walks and hits per inning pitched (WHIP) across 132 1/3 innings. His fastball velocity was down a couple of ticks from his pomp with the Dodgers, seeing his sinker punished consistently.

During the 2026 offseason, prior to signing with the Cardinals on a one-year, $12.5 million deal, May went to work. He adjusted his sinker grip, adopting a one-seam orientation to generate more seam-shifted wake, which uses the aerodynamics of the ball to encourage more downward movement. He also saw his velocity creep back up to start the year to the 96-97 mph range on his two fastballs, which is where he thrived with the Dodgers. After a rocky start to the season with 13 earned runs through his first 7 1/3 innings pitched, May has been one of the best pitchers in baseball by the measures hitters can control: strikeouts, walks, and home runs - also known as FIP.

Since May 1st, among pitchers to throw at least 70 innings, Dustin May ranks 8th in baseball in FIP. It's a statistic that, while basic, has correlated well with actual pitching performance in recent years. FIP suggests May's ERA has not fully reflected the quality of his underlying performance over the same period, as his ERA is 4.02 over that span. Here's a look at the top 12 pitchers by FIP since May 1st, and you'll see a host of recognisable names:

Name	Team	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP
Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	94.1	13.74	1.53	0.67	49.10%	11.50%	1.05	1.64
Chris Sale	ATL	82	11.52	1.87	0.33	45.10%	4.50%	1.98	1.85
Dylan Cease	TOR	88	12.78	3.48	0.72	41.20%	9.30%	2.25	2.48
Cristopher Sánchez	PHI	104.1	10.18	1.73	0.78	57.90%	13.20%	2.5	2.65
Drew Rasmussen	TBR	86.2	9.35	1.56	0.73	41.80%	8.40%	3.01	2.8
Paul Skenes	PIT	90.2	11.61	2.48	0.89	37.00%	9.60%	4.27	2.83
Sean Burke	CHW	79	11.51	2.73	0.8	33.50%	8.20%	2.96	2.87
Dustin May	STL	78.1	9.65	3.22	0.46	42.30%	5.10%	4.02	2.88
Bryan Woo	SEA	85.1	10.02	2.11	0.95	41.80%	10.10%	4.85	2.98
Cam Schlittler	NYY	95	10.99	1.89	1.04	41.10%	11.30%	2.27	2.98
Zack Wheeler	PHI	100	10.8	1.8	1.17	44.40%	15.10%	2.43	3.05
Chase Burns	CIN	84.2	10.42	3.3	0.85	31.60%	8.30%	2.23	3.14

That's the key context. Every other pitcher ahead of May on this list remained with their original team. Among available starters, nobody matched May's underlying production. In fact, the next player on the list is Kevin Gausman, who ranked 35th with a 3.59 FIP since May 1st. Dustin May, by the elements a pitcher can control, is far and away the best starter to be traded by this metric over the last three months.

That profile explains why Milwaukee was willing to pay a significant price. The Brewers have consistently valued pitchers who limit damage, generate ground balls and create weak contact, and May fits that philosophy.

So why is he so good? Well, Dustin May avoids the long ball like the plague. Only Chris Sale of the names above allows fewer home runs per nine innings, and that's because May's large arsenal and vicious movement do a phenomenal job of missing barrels with regularity. The three-fastball mix he possesses is something the Brewers prize for this reason, and his cutter is the cream of the crop.

Last season, May's fastballs were getting hit so hard that he led his entire mix with his sweeper. This season, he's establishing all three fastballs to quite deadly effect. The graphic above from pitch profiler shows that, on both the four-seamer and the cutter, when hitters put the ball in play, their expected run value is negative. The four-seamer has been hit hard, but generates a lot of pop-ups, while the cutter has an average exit velocity against it of just 85.5 mph. If that wasn't enough, the newly constructed sinker has a 56% ground ball rate this season. Each pitch protects the other well, but let's hone in on the cutter a little bit.

I've got another graphic below showing how each pitch, if thrown at the same target, looks at the time the hitter is making his swing decision. Notice how close the red (four-seam), orange (sinker), and brown (cutter) are. More importantly, the cutter is a bridge pitch that enhances the effectiveness of the sweeper, May's most effective out pitch. From a pure stuff perspective, this pitch is 70-80 grade, coming in faster than most sweepers with more horizontal break, averaging almost 3,200 rpm. 

The cutter mirrors the sweeper more closely than the four-seam or sinker, and allows the pitch to be even more deceptive. To add to that, May is able to spin a steep curveball to left-handed hitters, and a changeup that grades out extremely well, although he does have some spotty command of the pitch. Again, if you look at the decision point chart, the changeup and the sinker look almost identical at the time a hitter is gearing up to swing, and that's why May can get a lot of swing and miss on it when it's well located.

Some analysts think the Brewers, if they can find the right sequencing for Dustin May, can unlock even more from him. Eli-Ben Porat from Baseball America has a model called "FIRE", combining a pitcher's stuff, sequencing, and location to create overall grades for a pitcher. Unlike traditional stuff models that only evaluate pitch quality, FIRE attempts to measure how a pitcher's arsenal works together through stuff, sequencing, and location. Here's his assessment of Dustin May:

The one change we may see more of from the Brewers, and it's backed up by Ben-Porat's model, is more sinkers and fewer four-seam fastballs. Combining May's feel to command the pitch, his ground ball rate, and the increased movement he gets with it, as well as the Brewers' fondness for sinkers in general, I would expect Milwaukee to increase May's sinker usage while reducing his four-seam frequency ever so slightly.

They haven't enjoyed big east/west arsenals of late, and that would be the one concern. Big moving pitchers like sweepers haven't fitted too well in their structure, and they don't call a lot of them, but May's ability to command his main breaking pitch can buck the trend. 

There's a lot to like about Dustin May. He doesn't walk many hitters. He avoids barrels. He has some electric breaking pitches at his disposal. Oh, and he's been one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball since May 1st. This is someone the Brewers would be comfortable starting a playoff series, and who has a chance on his day to dominate any lineup. 

After Tarik Skubal was off the board, the Brewers have pivoted to the next best starter on the market. The price was large, but a lot more reasonable than that of Skubal, and they got a left-handed, late-inning reliever to boot. Given the dearth of quality impact bats available to fix their offensive capabilities, I could make the argument that Dustin May, JoJo Romero, and Antonio Senzatela are the highest quality upgrades available for the Brewers. How it plays out over the next three months will go a long way toward determining that statement.

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[cragi]

helps explain the heavy price the Brewers paid. Must have been far and away their second choice

[Jake McKibbin]

Just now, cragi said:

helps explain the heavy price the Brewers paid. Must have been far and away their second choice

I think so. Factoring in the fastball mix the Brewers love so much, the command he has of those fastballs and the variety of plus breaking pitches, he fits a Brewers model to a T. Rival GM's have talked about the fit and said anonymously that "May might be superhuman with the Brewers"

That, plus the inter-division tax seemed to be a real thing this year as we've seen in the AL East and this trade

[wallus]

What number would you rank him on our staff now? (Assuming Miz, Harrison, Henderson and Drohan are the other starters)

[Profbratsch]

He looks like Brandon Woodruff's brother. That's got to count for something, right? 😉

[Jake McKibbin]

11 minutes ago, wallus said:

What number would you rank him on our staff now? (Assuming Miz, Harrison, Henderson and Drohan are the other starters)

I think this move was made as an effort to gear up for an NLCS/World Series push. The Brewers now have four starters that, if healthy, are capable of shutting down nearly any offense, something you need in those seven game series.

As rankings go, it's Miz first, but the other three are quite close... who would you lean towards after reading the article?

[Michael Trzinski]

11 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

I think this move was made as an effort to gear up for an NLCS/World Series push. The Brewers now have four starters that, if healthy, are capable of shutting down nearly any offense, something you need in those seven game series.

As rankings go, it's Miz first, but the other three are quite close... who would you lean towards after reading the article?

I would put Henderson/May #2/#3, with Harrison moving down until he proves he is healthy again.

[maxximus]

37 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

I think this move was made as an effort to gear up for an NLCS/World Series push. The Brewers now have four starters that, if healthy, are capable of shutting down nearly any offense, something you need in those seven game series.

As rankings go, it's Miz first, but the other three are quite close... who would you lean towards after reading the article?

Miz and Henderson need to be considered the top 2 in rotation right now, but if Harrison proves he's healthy and back to pre-injury form, and the Brewers defense can get the results that May's FIP suggests (not a given how they've been playing defense lately though), then that's 4 strong starters, not even counting what doing a little tweaking to his pitch usage, etc could do for May.