Why Blake Burke’s Elite Power Could Outweigh His Swing Decisions

[Jake McKibbin]

Image courtesy of USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Blake Burke has more raw power than anyone else in the Brewers' minor league system. That's saying something considering the organization also has Andrew Fischer, Jesús Made, and Eric Bitonti. Burke has crushed his way to a 30 home run season in Biloxi (and 28 stolen bases ?!?) in just 96 games, and his promotion to Triple A is well earned after one of the most dominant months in Southern League history.

Brewers player development shared a home run compilation along with Burke's statistics in July, which saw him fall just short of slugging 1.000 (yes, slugging) in the month:

The exit velocities tell a story. Ranging from 106 mph to 116 mph, Blake Burke hit the ball hard, often, and was hitting it in the air. Burke is an aggressive swinger, but his contact rate overall is north of 70% this season, which is passable. His in-zone contact rate is around 78%, again a strong enough number to play well at the major league level if he can sustain it.

The only concerns with Burke's profile to date are something the Brewers have been tight on, and that's his swing decisions. Burke has chased roughly 35% of pitches outside the strike zone this season, putting him in the bottom 10% of hitters in Double A by chase rate. The problem isn't necessarily that he'll miss every pitch he chases. It's that chasing removes him from counts where he can do the most damage, potentially turning elite raw power into merely above-average game power. Will there be a point where chasing too often limits the power he can produce?

Well, if we look at the major league level, there are a bunch of names that have been chasing more than Burke, and some of those names may surprise you. This isn't a one-to-one comparison. Burke is seeing Double-A pitching, while these hitters are doing it against major league arms. But the comparison is still useful because it shows that a high chase rate doesn't automatically make an aggressive hitter unplayable.

There are currently 30 hitters that chase more than Burke in the major leagues, and while the chart below that showcases expected Weighted On Base Average (xWOBA) should increase the more a hitter chases, there are some exceptions to this:

There are a number of successful hitters who chase above 35% of the time, and some of them are the more exciting players in baseball. If we isolate it to just those who chase above 35% of the time and have an xWOBA over .340, we have Julio Rodriguez, Luis Garcia Jr, Michael Harris II, Alec Burleson, Jac Caglianone, CJ Abrams and Jordan Walker. Yes, they chase, but they offset it by maximizing their aggression inside the strike zone and leveraging that for power.

Jac Caglianone is an interesting comparison for Burke. Sitting near or at the top of the league for hard-hit rates, barrel rates, average exit velocities and bat speed, his quality of contact metrics are superb. His chase rate, however, limits him from maximizing that contact into being a true superstar; however, he's doing exactly what he needs to do to maximize his profile. Slugging pitches over the heart of the plate. 

Caglianone has an expected slugging mark of .718 on pitches over the heart of the plate, ranking 17th in all of baseball (interestingly, Jackson Chourio is 15th). That damage has led him to hit .264/.317/.480 while playing the majority of his games in the pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium. So while he chases and strikes out, Caglianone is a prime example of why chase rate isn't necessarily the problem. Ineffective aggression is.

Blake Burke's power is not in question. Regardless of the level, if pitchers are attacking him inside the strike zone, he has the kind of raw power Milwaukee hasn't seen from a first-base prospect since Prince Fielder that can damage those baseballs. If he can further develop his swing decisions, the Brewers may have one of the best first basemen in the league. If he can't, there's still a path to being a serviceable, powerful first baseman who steals more bases than Josh Naylor (it's wizardry, honestly).

Burke's promotion has come at an interesting time. While there isn't a clear path currently to the major leagues for Burke with Jake Bauers taking the role of an everyday, left-handed first baseman, Bauers is hitting free agency after this year. This move is going to give Burke enough playing time in Nashville to potentially propel himself into that first base conversation for 2027, but it also gives the Brewers coverage.

There are three potential, if unlikely, routes to seeing Blake Burke in Milwaukee this season. Jake Bauers is playing with a broken toe at the moment, and while he's playing through it using pain management and performing well, the toe is an interesting injury. It absorbs a lot of the ground force that hitters use to create torque from their legs, and it's not inconceivable the Brewers would want to give Bauers some time off down the stretch. It also provides some DH cover should Christian Yelich get injured, which hasn't been uncommon in past seasons. Finally, the rosters expand in September, allowing one extra hitter and one extra pitcher to join the team. The Brewers aren't in need of another position player without versatility, but Burke has a month of games to show he can be a force in a bench bat role.

While this is likely a move for next season, it does give the Brewers some options in terms of injury cover, or even expanded roster cover in September, if Burke hits the ground running. It's worth continuing to monitor the chase rates with publicly available statcast data, but even if they stay steady, that doesn't mean Burke won't be successful at the highest level.

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[Brian]

Former Tennessee baseball star Blake Burke promoted to Triple-A Nashville Sounds. Wonder if this means someone is getting called up like Luke Adams? 

[JohnBriggs12]

What's worse, a chase rate that's a bit high or simply refusing to challenge a strike call on a ball that's more than an inch off the outside corner that Andrew Vaughn has been doing all season?  Being challenge shy always results in a strike, while swinging at that pitch an inch or two off the plate at least has a chance to do damage.

[Trax]

There are a lot of prospects I really like.  With Made and Pena off the table for me in the past trade talks I would also have had guys like Burke and Fischer near off.  All 4 of those guys figure heavily in the Brewers future plans....

Which one most likely traded down the road?  Hopefully none but I would say Pena, positional duplication.  Only with serious return and likely packaged if ever so...

[Jim French Stepstool]

3 hours ago, Trax said:

There are a lot of prospects I really like.  With Made and Pena off the table for me in the past trade talks I would also have had guys like Burke and Fischer near off.  All 4 of those guys figure heavily in the Brewers future plans....

Which one most likely traded down the road?  Hopefully none but I would say Pena, positional duplication.  Only with serious return and likely packaged if ever so...

It's too early to say, but there might wind up being positional duplication w/Burke & Fischer, too.

[Trax]

Possible, but I see Fischer sticking at 3rd.  Made, Pratt, Pena and of course Turang if he stays makes for a stuffed situation if that be the case.

[wiguy94]

I'd like to see Burke tone down the chase a bit but at this point getting a more aggressive hitter into the lineup would feel like a plus not a negative. I feel like the Brewers border far too close with passiveness than great swing decisions.

This is a chart with pitches and swings on pitches in the heart of the zone. The Brewers dot is the furthest to the right. They have seen the most pitches in the heart of the zone this year. They are comfortably below the regression line though which means they are more passive than the average team when getting those pitches in the heart of the zone. The dot above them is the Cubs.

[keephopealive]

According to Foolish Bailey, it seems we could use more hackers come playoff time.  I actually don't buy that. Aggressive is fine, for a guy whose hits are definitely not the kind where "a walk is as good as a hit", but commanding the zone is important for those guys to.  To me, what Foolish Bailey showed is that we aren't high on talent, but we maximize it, so what he's saying is that we could use a little more talent in the playoffs. Anyone who has been a Brewers' fan over the last 8 years agrees with that! 

[wiguy94]

4 minutes ago, keephopealive said:

According to Foolish Bailey, it seems we could use more hackers come playoff time.  I actually don't buy that. Aggressive is fine, for a guy whose hits are definitely not the kind where "a walk is as good as a hit", but commanding the zone is important for those guys to.  To me, what Foolish Bailey showed is that we aren't high on talent, but we maximize it, so what he's saying is that we could use a little more talent in the playoffs. Anyone who has been a Brewers' fan over the last 8 years agrees with that! 

A walk is only as good as a hit if there's nobody on base. If there's a runner on base a hit will always be better than a walk because it allows players not immediately in front of the guy being walked to advance bases and it allows players to advance multiple bases. That's why a single is more valuable than a walk in the wOBA calculation. 

[keephopealive]

3 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

A walk is only as good as a hit if there's nobody on base. If there's a runner on base a hit will always be better than a walk because it allows players not immediately in front of the guy being walked to advance bases and it allows players to advance multiple bases. That's why a single is more valuable than a walk in the wOBA calculation. 

Lol.  Your precision impresses me, wiguy.  You'd make a good academic. That's of course correct.  I'm making a reference to the old adage that people would cheer their teammates on with, but I'm also saying that a walk is not as good as an extra base hit no matter what the situation, and Burke is the kind of guy who gives us extra bases. 

[TURBO]

5 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

It's too early to say, but there might wind up being positional duplication w/Burke & Fischer, too.

and Adams.

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 minutes ago, TURBO said:

and Adams.

I wasn't including him because in that case I believe the other two would ace him out, but yes Adams too.

[TURBO]

5 hours ago, Trax said:

Possible, but I see Fischer sticking at 3rd.  Made, Pratt, Pena and of course Turang if he stays makes for a stuffed situation if that be the case.

Maybe, but if Fischer's bat is the real deal, they will find a place for him, if not 3B, then 1B and if worse comes to worse, he'll see a lot of time at DH.  

I think Made is our 3B of the future, unless they think they can move Pratt there successfully.

I can see this being our future line-up after Turang inevitably leaves.

1B/DH Burke - Fischer

2B Pena

SS Pratt

3B Made

Where does this leave Adams?  I love this guy, but he may be the first one called up, but also the first to leave via trade in the off season.

[Turning2]

18 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

It's too early to say, but there might wind up being positional duplication w/Burke & Fischer, too.

Burke 1B, Fischer DH would seem likely. Made at 3B. Maybe Adams slips in there somewhere too.

EDITED TO ADD:  guess I should have read the other responses first... LOL. However it fills out, the lineup could be, SHOULD be stacked in a couple of years with power and solid contact hitters

[igor67]

Flipping things around here, there is a pretty healthy chance 1 of the group between Burke, Fischer, and Adams doesn't do much at the MLB level. My only preference is that they try and bring those guys up in a way that gives them each at least a fair shot.

[sveumrules]

13 hours ago, TURBO said:

Where does this leave Adams? 

As the RH platoon partner at 1B/DH with the LH hitting Fischer and Burke.

[Tedaldtada]

It’s pretty clear to me that Bauers and Vaughn will both be with different teams next year. The Brewers have been craving a homegrown power bat to arrive and the patience and perseverance is about to pay off.

[Spencer Michaelis]

18 hours ago, Trax said:

Possible, but I see Fischer sticking at 3rd.

I'd be pretty surprised if he did, if I'm being honest. It was better than I expected when he entered pro ball, but it hasn't improved at all since then. He can probably handle it in a pinch, but I think he's a first baseman.

[Joseph Zarr]

2 hours ago, Spencer Michaelis said:

I'd be pretty surprised if he did, if I'm being honest. It was better than I expected when he entered pro ball, but it hasn't improved at all since then. He can probably handle it in a pinch, but I think he's a first baseman.

It truly is unfortunate neither he nor Adams improved at the Hot Corner. They both kind of stalemated. Of the two, for me, Fischer is clearly the more natural athlete at third. For whatever reasons, Adams turns into an acrobat on routine throws from over there and I just don't trust the accuracy of his arm nor the fluidity of his range. He's an incredible athlete but in a different way. Personally, I think there is plenty of PT to split up between the three between 1B/DH. AND, maybe just maybe they'd actually ride the hot hand (tho, if I'm being honest I don't trust them to do so) from time-to-time?