Could Brewers Issue Jake Bauers a Qualifying Offer This Fall?

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Dodgers sent the best left-handed starting pitcher in baseball to the mound Sunday. For most of his career, Jake Bauers could plan on being on the bench on days like that. Instead, he was not only in the lineup, but on base all day, notching four hits in a convincing Brewers win. By the end of the contest, he was batting .275/.384/.500 for the season. He's already come to bat 448 times, hit 21 homers and drawn 65 walks, which are all career-highs. At age 30, he's hurtling toward a significant free-agent payday, just two years after being a castoff who had to limp back to the Brewers on a minor-league deal.

Because Bauers has never been an in-demand free agent before, though, the Brewers will have one more chance to realize some value even when his contract expires at the end of this year's World Series. He's eligible to receive a qualifying offer, which is likely to be worth around $23 million for 2027. If the Brewers issue one (and if Bauers declines it), they could receive a significant draft pick as compensation when he signs elsewhere.

It's rare that the Brewers elect to extend a qualifying offer to a departing free agent. Historically, they only do so with premium players whom they would earnestly love to keep, albeit only on terms the player is likely to exceed by shopping their services to the highest bidder. They issued QOs to Willy Adames after the 2024 campaign and to Brandon Woodruff last fall. Whenever there's a real question of whether to do so, though, they default to not doing it, because their budget makes a player earning that much a bit of a burden. For anyone other than a beloved cornerstone, it's hard to justify giving out over $20 million a year when the whole team will make less than $150 million.

Bauers, then, will be an interesting test case. His production this season is as good or better than that of Pete Alonso last year, before he signed a lucrative five-year deal with the Orioles this winter—though Alonso didn't have the QO attached to him then, after having circled back to the Mets on a short-term deal with opt-outs included in the 2024-25 offseason when he did have that encumbrance. It's also better than that of Nick Castellanos, who signed a five-year deal with the Phillies after declining the Reds' QO in late 2021. Bauers is a better athlete than either Castellanos or Alonso, and isn't significantly older than they were when hitting free agency in those years. However, he doesn't have the same lengthy track record that both Alonso and Castellanos boasted at those times.

From the player's perspective, this is a first (and likely only) chance to cash in at a high salary on a multi-year deal. Even if they produce the way Bauers has this year, few first basemen garner big offers or long-term commitments as they head toward their mid-30s. If the Brewers did extend Bauers a QO, he would face a dilemma. Taking the deal would probably mean eschewing a larger one.

The Brewers, however, face their own dilemma. As much as they might trust and like Bauers, and as valuable as he has been this season, he'd have to be similarly brilliant next year to be worth $23 million in the context of their payroll. Should they gamble on either getting that great a return or having him turn down the offer, or should they simply wish him well and wave goodbye after the World Series? The big, lurking variable in that problem might be Andrew Vaughn—but not in the way you'd expect.

Although his season has been rendered strange and frustrating by the broken hamate bone he suffered on Opening Day and Bauers usurping him in his absence, Vaughn is playing superbly again this year. He looks like a solid option at first base for 2027, should Bauers leave, and the Brewers do have one more year of club control over him. However, Vaughn is also making $7.65 million already this year, and despite the missed time, he figures to get near $10 million via arbitration if the team doesn't first trade or non-tender him in the second half of November.

In Vaughn and Bauers, Milwaukee has two players who profile as great first basemen for 2027. Either would be an expensive solution, though, and keeping both probably isn't an option. That, oddly, frees the team up in its decision-making, because Bauers will hit free agency just after the World Series and they'll have to decide about the QO within days. Bauers himself will then have to decide whether to accept the offer over the ensuring fortnight, and all of that has to happen before the decision point comes on Vaughn's arbitration eligibility.

The Brewers can (and should, barring some development between now and then that alters the state of play) extend a QO to Bauers, and then wait to see whether he accepts it or not. If he does, they can save whatever money they need to save by trading or non-tendering Vaughn. If he rejects the offer, they'll be in position to gain a draft pick when he signs elsewhere, and they can simply keep Vaughn. This fall will bring one last wave of value rippling out for the team, from the great achievements that were their trade for Vaughn and their work to help Bauers blossom this way. They just need the courage to extend the offer to Bauers, in order to redeem that final voucher.

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[keephopealive]

I basically agree with the last paragraph

But I guess you also decide based on how Fischer and Burke finish the season and how the market for 1B looks.  Burke and Vaughn have splits made for a platoon. Fischer and Bauers both seem platoon split.  If we think Burke is ready for next year, hope to go into the season with Burke and Vaughn.  Otherwise, Bauers may be good until Fischer is ready. But if the market is strong, I think giving Bauers the QO, and getting the pick if he leaves is smart. We're probably seeing peak Bauers, and the young guys are close the Show.

[wiguy94]

I definitely think they should. If he accepts and comes back on a 1 year deal it’s not an issue. If he declines then you’ll get a comp pick of some sort.

[Trax]

I was dead against giving Woodruff a QO because I expected him to accept it.  The Brewers I think were hoping he wouldn't.  That with the injury was a disaster.  Without the injury he's still not worth 20 million at this point with age and history the way I looked at it.

 

Bauers is a different story.  Young with no injury history.  I would be far more happy with a QO made to him than I was with Woody but still a bit of a reach.  I can see the reason for it though, far less risk than Woody was with great return potential.   If he did accept it then hopefully we could get real return for Vaughn.  If he leaves we still have Vaughn and I believe Burke would be up to platoon before long.

[Local Man Brewer Fan]

OK - complete tangent here. I am probably a little crazy - but I think part of the reason the Brewers were willing to go the QO route with Woodruff was because they had so many young pitchers, and they really wanted his veteran presence and leadership. I am betting we see him in the dugout for all of the home games for that very reason. Of course - they were also hoping to get more starts than he was able to deliver - but that is how it goes sometimes.

[SF70]

This team can use a veteran big-bat that can lead this team for the next few years with all the young, developing talent added recently and on the way.

Adding too many inexperienced players, no matter how talented, will likely set the team back for a bit. 

If I’m the team I’m trying to extend him with a 3 year offer and if I’m not able to get that done then offer the QO.

[long ball]

So I’ve sorta been operating under the assumption that Bauers would be in line for a similar deal to what Ohearn hit last off season which was about 2 years for $30m. Similar age, position, handedness, spotty track record. However, if Bauers maintains this the final 5 weeks of the season he’s going to have a notably better walk year. 
 

Even if we work under the parameters of 2 years for $30ish… I might prefer the 1 year commitment of the qualifying offer. 
 

so I almost think you offer it hoping he takes it and you don’t have to commits to a multi year deal with him. 
 

sf70 makes a valid point, you don’t want to be trotting out a line up of 50% first and second year players. You need some stability. 

[Rick Daltons Flamethrower]

I think you bring up one of their minor leaguers who is hitting bombs. Lots of fun options in the minors with some interesting trade options brewing in the Fall. That minor league system is the gift that keeps on giving.

[Brian]

13 hours ago, long ball said:

So I’ve sorta been operating under the assumption that Bauers would be in line for a similar deal to what Ohearn hit last off season which was about 2 years for $30m. Similar age, position, handedness, spotty track record. However, if Bauers maintains this the final 5 weeks of the season he’s going to have a notably better walk year. 
 

Even if we work under the parameters of 2 years for $30ish… I might prefer the 1 year commitment of the qualifying offer. 
 

so I almost think you offer it hoping he takes it and you don’t have to commits to a multi year deal with him. 
 

sf70 makes a valid point, you don’t want to be trotting out a line up of 50% first and second year players. You need some stability. 

If we got rid of Yelach's contract,  Bauers would be a freeby. 

[jay87shot]

This is a multi layered question for me, if it is easy as offer a QO and he declines it and signs for over $50 then it is easy do it. However I don't think we want to pay him 23 million if we can get good production at 1B. Vaughn will cost 13ish million less and provides pretty similar offensive numbers, yes less HR this year but less K's. Interesting Vaughn has at least statistically been a far superior defense player (Vaughn 0 drs, Bauers -6) at 1B this year. Vaughn does have about 200 less plate appearences and his HR production is down however he would be on pace for nearly 40 2B for a fully healthy year. 

My stance is this currently, if Bauers continues the season at this pace and is near 30 HR and 100 RBI I would offer him arby. It seems like a relatively weak offense class of free agents for power hitting players and there is a decent chance he declines and signs for 50+. If he does accept the QO great, however I wouldn't trade Vaughn. I would make him my nearly everyday LF (+1 DRS in 12 starts left). Chourio in RF, Mitchell in CF, Lara 4th OF (pinch run, defense replacement). Bauers would get some starts at 1B, but plays 3/4 days in LF and Vaughn plays mostly 1B everyday. Burke can start in AAA and get a call up when there is PT around some injury. I know Vaughn hasn't been great against RHP but this gives us a way to maximize our offensive potential. If Bauers is iffy down the stretch I would just let him walk and not offer the QO, in that case he is in that O'Hearn 2/20-30 range. The situation could also change if Vaughn struggles or something happens on the Yeli front.

[Outlander]

Vaughn has shown no indication he can produce like Bauers has this year since he is basically a platoon bat, of course Bauers gave no indication that he could produce like Bauers produced this year.

[CheezWizHed]

Personally, I think of it as a win-win. 

• Bauers accepts the QO: Woody comes off the books and Bauers takes that money.  Pair him with Luke Adams (if they guy can stay healthy) and trade Vaughn (which frees up $8M). 
• Bauers declines the QO: We get a draft pick, Vaughn stays for his last year of arbitration, and you pair him with Blake Burke.  Might still have Adams at 3B and you have the $18M ($23M minus the $5M raise to Vaughn) to spend somewhere else. 

[Turning2]

They should offer it. He won't take it. Worst case scenario he does accept it (for some inexplicable reason), he then resorts to past performance levels and is a huge black hole, money suck like Woody this year. But odds are that he would decline it, and they nab the draft pick. He's not damaged goods, coming off several injury riddled seasons like Woodruff, so the gamble makes a lot more sense. Hopefully, the Woodruff QO debacle doesn't make them gun shy with it for Bauers. Can't wait to be done flushing that money down the toilet.