Padres (Pivetta) vs Brewers (May): 10/6/26, 8:30pm

[adambr2]

Mason Miller and Morejon are going to likely be available tonight as reported . We really missed our shot to put this one away. 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

18 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

With a flyball heavy pitcher like Gasser and Murphy all but admitting that Bauers isn’t healthy enough to play RF, I’m not willing to compromise on OF defense. 

I am not opposed to a Chourio/Lara/Frelick outfield tonight. I don’t really want both Bauers and Mitchell in the lineup tonight, they are killing the offense right now. I’d give Mitchell the night off. Bauers or Vaughn at 1B is a really tough call for me and I hate how much Vaughn has been wasted but I’d probably go Bauers at 1B and have Vaughn and Sanchez available late in the likely event of a close game and a heavy dose of Morejon.

Yeah, I don't know. You know those sweatshirts that said "Built for October"? I'm not.

Bauers in right is probably a nightmare. 

[OldSchoolSnapper]

14 minutes ago, SeaBass said:

Reading this thread, when Andrew Vaughn eventually gets an at bat or two I expect nothing but perfection. 5 run home runs and bases empty grand slams at minimum.

Well that's actually part of why everyone hates his usage. He'll get maybe one pinch hit AB which is not what baseball is about. Like anybody else he needs volume. This is not a great offense. We have a single hitter over .300 and he sees the plate like a backup catcher. I'd like to think the Brewers are too smart for this, but it does seem like other guys get more chances because they're "gritty" and Murphy "believes in them" or whatever. Mitchell is up there looking like a pitcher.

[yourout]

The most alarming thing about the series so far is the four errors and 3 unearned runs in three games.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

1 minute ago, yourout said:

The most alarming thing about the series so far is the four errors and 3 unearned runs in three games.

I agree. How bad the defense has been is an alarm. But this series is a hair from being 3-0 and over in either direction.

[SeaBass]

Just now, OldSchoolSnapper said:

Well that's actually part of why everyone hates his usage. He'll get maybe one pinch hit AB which is not what baseball is about. Like anybody else he needs volume. This is not a great offense. We have a single hitter over .300 and he sees the plate like a backup catcher. I'd like to think the Brewers are too smart for this, but it does seem like other guys get more chances because they're "gritty" and Murphy "believes in them" or whatever. Mitchell is up there looking like a pitcher.

I, of course, understand. Vaughn is a defensive liability with no positional versatility and Bauers has had a great season and is left handed with the platoon advantage. Vaughn's pretty much a pinch hitter. Is what it is. I'm pretty frustrated with Mitchell, his at bats have been less than inspiring. Lara can replace him defensively, Vaughn can't and Lara is no Vaughn with the bat.

It just comes down to Murph wanting to really save Vaughn for a perfect PH opportunity and that type of situation usually comes late in the game. Fans calling for Vaughn to bat for Ortiz in the early innings is asking for a thing that's never really going to happen. Then he's used faster than an ABS challenge by Contreras.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

2 minutes ago, SeaBass said:

I, of course, understand. Vaughn is a defensive liability with no positional versatility and Bauers has had a great season and is left handed with the platoon advantage. Vaughn's pretty much a pinch hitter. Is what it is. I'm pretty frustrated with Mitchell, his at bats have been less than inspiring. Lara can replace him defensively, Vaughn can't and Lara is no Vaughn with the bat.

It just comes down to Murph wanting to really save Vaughn for a perfect PH opportunity and that type of situation usually comes late in the game. Fans calling for Vaughn to bat for Ortiz in the early innings is asking for a thing that's never really going to happen. Then he's used faster than an ABS challenge by Contreras.

Yeah, that is the problem they have. A cluster of guys who are literally or close to unplayable but happen to be their best hitters. Then Yelich who is unplayable but can't hit, but kind of has been lately so he sort of has to be the DH.

The problem has been exacerbated by the incompetence of others like Turang.

[adambr2]

5 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

Well that's actually part of why everyone hates his usage. He'll get maybe one pinch hit AB which is not what baseball is about. Like anybody else he needs volume. This is not a great offense. We have a single hitter over .300 and he sees the plate like a backup catcher. I'd like to think the Brewers are too smart for this, but it does seem like other guys get more chances because they're "gritty" and Murphy "believes in them" or whatever. Mitchell is up there looking like a pitcher.

I agree. I am not naive enough to say that Murphy isn’t a great manager, but I am not naive enough to say that he is perfect and isn’t a human being who is prone to making mistakes like all of us. 

For whatever reason, Vaughn does not seem to have a skillset that Murphy values.  It’s certainly not because of his glove because Bauers is just as much of a liability. I’m guessing it’s far more related to baserunning but Vaughn receiving only 63 more ABs than Sanchez this season is kind of insane. 

I understand the narrative for Vaughn is weaker when you have a 2-1 series lead but the bounces have fortunately gone in our favor. 

We are two Jackson Chourio swings from being swept in this series and some tough questions related to how the offense was deployed. 

I don’t think asking why we can’t get the bat of a 130 OPS+ hitter batting .306 on the season into the lineup of a struggling offense is an unreasonable criticism. 

[adambr2]

Is Yelich just completely unplayable at 1B?  I know it’s been speculated, 

I am not talking for this season of course but with a full offseason and spring training of prep? Surely he can’t really be a downgrade from Bauers/Vaughn defensively, 

I ask this because I would guess Bauers and possibly even Vaughn won’t be back, we will probably need a short term bridge at 1st, and it would be nice to be able to spread the DH around a little bit and not have it completely limited to Yelich each night, 

[Fear The Chorizo]

40 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Mason Miller and Morejon are going to likely be available tonight as reported . We really missed our shot to put this one away. 

Morejon not being able to pitch last night means he's hurt.  Miller's arm will be on enough rest, but the rest of him probably wont.  All of the rest of San Diego's key relievers logged a ton of pitches in all 3 games.

 

The Brewers need to get after Buehler early and get an early lead for once this series...then the middle innings could open the floodgates if the Padres are having to roll through the rest of their rotation options on short rest and completely torch their pen just to get to Miller.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

8 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Is Yelich just completely unplayable at 1B?  I know it’s been speculated, 

I am not talking for this season of course but with a full offseason and spring training of prep? Surely he can’t really be a downgrade from Bauers/Vaughn defensively, 

I ask this because I would guess Bauers and possibly even Vaughn won’t be back, we will probably need a short term bridge at 1st, and it would be nice to be able to spread the DH around a little bit and not have it completely limited to Yelich each night, 

He is just so injury prone that the best option outside of a fantasy where he can just be released at no consequence, is letting him DH, eliminate any chance of being hurt in the field, and hopefully get himself right enough to be a + DH. This season it obviously didn't work.

[SeaBass]

4 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I don’t think asking why we can’t get the bat of a 130 OPS+ hitter batting .306 on the season into the lineup of a struggling offense is an unreasonable criticism. 

I don't think it's unreasonable but the fact it's either Bauers or Vaughn makes it a really tough call. I don't think it's a clear choice to just slap Vaughn into the lineup. If the matchup makes sense, then yes.

Unfortunately the Padres just haven't deployed a LHP too often this series. Ray started game 1 and they went with Jake. That's not exactly odd because it was the first playoff game and Jake had been good during the season. Unless folks want to see Bauers in the OF but I'm fairly certain we won't unless it's an emergency or late game necessity due to pinch hitting type things.

[wallus]

The Padres put everything they had into this game. I would be very surprised if we don't win game 4

[sobomp3]

3 hours ago, adambr2 said:

I never did. I don’t know why you quoting me on that. 

My bad. Meant to quote somebody else. Honestly quoting on this forum (particularly on a phone) is a bit… confusing compared to all of the other forums I frequent. 

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Just now, wallus said:

The Padres put everything they had into this game. I would be very surprised if we don't win game 4

We just haven't looked good enough in any game to inspire confidence for me. Lots of LOB, poor defense, whatever committee approach we have tonight on the mount, which may work, but could also go sideways. It just feels destined to go back to MKE. They got Miz as well, it just feels very 50/50.

[adambr2]

6 minutes ago, SeaBass said:

I don't think it's unreasonable but the fact it's either Bauers or Vaughn makes it a really tough call. I don't think it's a clear choice to just slap Vaughn into the lineup. If the matchup makes sense, then yes.

Unfortunately the Padres just haven't deployed a LHP too often this series. Ray started game 1 and they went with Jake. That's not exactly odd because it was the first playoff game and Jake had been good during the season. Unless folks want to see Bauers in the OF but I'm fairly certain we won't unless it's an emergency or late game necessity due to pinch hitting type things.

Well, based on regular season stats alone there should have been a lot less ABs for Yelich and a lot more Bauers/Vaughn rotating at 1B/DH which gets them both in while preserving your outfield defense. 

Fortunately Yelich in a random small sample size has played well in the playoffs where you can’t say that playing him has hurt us, 

Vaughn not starting against Robbie Ray was pretty alarming to me, though. I guess they figured he was probably going to be on a short leash and not go too many times through the order which ultimately did prove to be true. 

[sobomp3]

3 minutes ago, wallus said:

The Padres put everything they had into this game. I would be very surprised if we don't win game 4

That’s my take. They did everything right and we still had every chance to win while coming up short. 

[adambr2]

4 minutes ago, wallus said:

The Padres put everything they had into this game. I would be very surprised if we don't win game 4

They literally didn’t use their best reliever and their best lefty reliever. 

They have plenty more to throw at us for a Game 4. It’s not like they are in danger of running out of pitching. 

[adambr2]

2 minutes ago, sobomp3 said:

That’s my take. They did everything right and we still had every chance to win while coming up short. 

Meh, I think we all know deep down it’s a 50/50 coin flip again tonight that no one can really say with extreme confidence that they’d be surprised at any result. 

We have no idea if it will be Buehler, Gasser, or Patrick getting lit up tonight. Or none of them. Or all of them. 

But I don’t really get the implication that anything the Padres did in Game 3 somehow puts them at a relative disadvantage in Game 4.

[SeaBass]

5 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Well, based on regular season stats alone there should have been a lot less ABs for Yelich and a lot more Bauers/Vaughn rotating at 1B/DH which gets them both in while preserving your outfield defense. 

Fortunately Yelich in a random small sample size has played well in the playoffs where you can’t say that playing him has hurt us, 

Vaughn not starting against Robbie Ray was pretty alarming to me, though. I guess they figured he was probably going to be on a short leash and not go too many times through the order which ultimately did prove to be true. 

Right, Yelich. The whole Yelich thing with this team... I like Yelich but the version we've gotten of him this season isn't my favorite. I've said this before but this is a microcosm of what it looks like to be a team that hands out big, long term contracts to stars. You have to play them when they're older and in decline. We're pretty fortunate we only have one of those guys on the roster. We're also fortunate that he appears to be in a good place right now with the bat.

[MrTPlush]

9 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Well, based on regular season stats alone there should have been a lot less ABs for Yelich and a lot more Bauers/Vaughn rotating at 1B/DH which gets them both in while preserving your outfield defense. 

Fortunately Yelich in a random small sample size has played well in the playoffs where you can’t say that playing him has hurt us, 

Vaughn not starting against Robbie Ray was pretty alarming to me, though. I guess they figured he was probably going to be on a short leash and not go too many times through the order which ultimately did prove to be true. 

This is the problem. The only valid argument for Vaughn to be in the line-up is DH. Yelich, as much as he sucked in the regular season, has hit the ball well. One can’t beg for Vaughn because of regular season numbers and then remove Bauers of all people to do so. That has little logic.

Putting Andrew Vaughn at 3B would be some Mark Kotsay in CF level managing.

I get people want immediate results because that is what we need in the postseason, but panic changing the lineup after 13 PAs is unlikely going to change our chances any.

[Marc Newfield of Dreams]

10 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

But I don’t really get the implication that anything the Padres did in Game 3 somehow puts them at a relative disadvantage in Game 4.

They managed it the way you should in an elimination game. I think the bigger question is the bridge to Morejon/Miller. If used, will Matsui and Rodriguez be as effective pitching their fourth time in five days?

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, adambr2 said:

Mason Miller and Morejon are going to likely be available tonight as reported . We really missed our shot to put this one away. 

Won't matter if they can get on the board early and often.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

38 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Morejon not being able to pitch last night means he's hurt.  Miller's arm will be on enough rest, but the rest of him probably wont.  All of the rest of San Diego's key relievers logged a ton of pitches in all 3 games.

 

San Diego beat reporter for MLB.com said Morejon has arm fatigue, or "stickiness in his shoulder." 

He's definitely hurt. Hurt enough not to pitch? Who knows? Obviously, the Padres are going to play this vague, and you can't rule out gamesmanship. But he's not 100%.

 

[ToolShed55]

It's been 2 quality teams dukeing (sp?) it out over 3 very hard fought games. All the forensic analysis about whose to blame overlooks the fact that we've had a top 5 scoring team that hasn't scored, and a top defense that hasn't defended well. 

That's playoff baseball sometimes. The crucible is hotter, for both sides.

Last time I checked, we're still 2-1, and honestly, both teams could have advanced 3-0 with a couple breaks. Padres are still a team LOADED with superstars, and we're winning with 22 year olds!

If we'd been offered a game 5 at home with Miz pitching before the series, MOST here would have taken that. 

It's squeaky bum time, but I still believe. 

Gonna have to watch the game tonight at the Mexican restaurant the missus and I will be in for her birthday. 

Never mind Mason Miller timing his babies badly, what is she THINKING having birthdays during playoffs!