How many wins will it take to beat the Cubs? (Merged: Record to reach playoffs)

[And That]

The question is pretty simple. I have my money on 85 wins to top the nogoodniks from the north side. Meaning, we have to become pretty myopic on 85 or + wins. What does everyone else think?

[ELCABALLO45]

I like 85 myself. But I just hope we have a good week on the road. And we just keep winning.

[falling off]

I persoally am going to go with 86. The cubs have 11 games left (5 vs reds 3 each with the marlins and pirates). As I don't think the Cubs will play less than .500 ball the rest of the way, I have a feeling the best 85 will get us is a playoff game.

[Oldcity]

Before the weekend series I probably would have said 85. Seeing how the Cubs have won 4 of their last five since then, I think it will take 86. The odds of that are pretty low probably.

[Fatter than Joey]

I think the winner of the NL Central -- be it the Cubs or Brewers will have 85 wins

[rluzinski]

FWIW, I've got the Cubs winning 85 games, so my guess is that it would take 86 wins. A 9-4 finish would be a tall order, obviously. I think the Brewers are at the point that the Cubs will have to underperform a bit for the Brewers to make the playoffs.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think rluzinski has it right. 85 to tie. 86 to win.

 

If the Brewers could go 6-3 or 7-2 over their next 9, they could still be alive for the wild card heading into 4 with the WC leader Padres. 87 wins might be enough for the WC (assuming they win at least 3 vs. Padres). Of course if they do that, it's likely they'd beat out the Cubs anyway, but you never know.

[splitterpfj]

I think the Cubs will get to 85 as well, I think the best bet for the Brewers is probably tying them and having the playoff.

[Fatter than Joey]

87 wins might be enough for the WC (assuming they win at least 3 vs. Padres).

 

I think that there is a really small chance (less than 1%) that either the Cubs or Brewers take the WC -- Not only do we have to get past SD, but Philly as well, and for Philly to lose means ATL has to win, so it would take quite a win streak, and probably sweeps of SD and ATL for that to happen.

[Patrick425]

Not to change the subject, and maybe this was discussed in another thread, but anyone thought about what the pitching match up would be if the Cubs and Brewers had to play a tie breaker. It looks like Villanueva would be scheduled for the Brewers. Hard to say for the Cubs, because the have 2 off days and may rearange their starting pitching a little..but it looks like it would possibly be Marquis or Hill.

[Fatter than Joey]

Not to change the subject, and maybe this was discussed in another thread, but anyone thought about what the pitching match up would be if the Cubs and Brewers had to play a tie breaker.

 

My guess, is that both rotations would be dumped into the BP, and people like Z and/or Sheets would be pitching on little rest.

 

When I lived in OR -- Sea played a tie-game-breaker against the Angels, and they had everyone ready to go. I think Randy Johnson ended up pitching on 3 days rest, and they had a bunch of the starters in the pen, but then the game ended up not being close.

[davego]

That one-game playoff @ Wrigley could be real fun...

[Patrick425]

My guess, is that both rotations would be dumped into the BP, and people like Z and/or Sheets would be pitching on little rest.

Yeah, you're probably right.

[brewfanks]

The way the cubs are playing (very lucky combined with clutch) it wouldn't surprise me if they finish 8-3 and end at 87 wins. That would mean we'd have to win 10 of 13 to tie and 11 of 13 to win the division. I honestly think that's what it is going to take to beat the cubs. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

[JumpinMacFlash]

I'm going to throw my guess in for 85 as well.

 

I think that there is a really small chance (less than 1%) that either the Cubs or Brewers take the WC

 

You're probably right, but if we even pick up a couple of games on SD in the wild card standings before the final series of the season, it could make those four games that much more valuable. I know the Dodgers and the Phillies have to suck too, but I'm crossing my fingers. The Phillies usually tank it somehow and San Diego and LA don't play each other the rest of the season, however they play the Rockies six times and we're tied with the Rockies. It would take a lot, but don't discount anything too early.

[Patrick425]

Regardless of how many wins it will take, is there any better team to be chasing? Think about it. If we were chasing the Cardinals, I think I would be much more negative about our chances. But this is the Cubs. Sooner or later something will go horribly wrong for them. It's got to...right?

[Fatter than Joey]

It would take a lot, but don't discount anything too early.

 

Sure, there is no reason to give up on that chance --

 

But this is the Cubs. Sooner or later something will go horribly wrong for them. It's got to...right?

 

I'd rather be chasing the Cards with their crappy pitching.

 

If you believe that "something has to go wrong" -- those things have happened to the Cubs in the playoffs in the past as well. The Cubs have a cakewalk sched., they have some guys that can hit, some guys that can pitch, and a manager with a lot of pennant race experience.

[Tbadder]

I think the Cubbies will win 86 or 87, which essentianlly leaves the Brewers outta the equation. I think the Brewers best chance is if the Braves dump their series against the Crew and the Pads are outta it. Then maybe.

[Patrick425]

I'd rather be chasing the Cards with their crappy pitching.

You missed my point. I meant that all other things being equal, it seems like the Cubs historically have a history of tripping all over themselves. Although, yes I do realize that this tends to happen in the playoffs for them. But, not always. No one will ever forget the '69 pennant race. Then there is also 2004, where they fell apart down the stretch and blew their opportunities for a wild card.

 

I was just trying to put an optimistic spin on things...which is unusual for me.

[Glennron]

I'd say realistically the Cubs will go either 7-4 or 6-5 in their final 11 games. The Reds seem to have their number, they were 7-5 over the Cubs til last night, and I believe the season series between the Cubs and Bucs is basically split. Like most people have said, the Brewers basically have to hope the Cubs falter more than anything, cause even if the Crew can go say 8-5, it's not really guaranteed.

[hawing]

This thread is not raising my spirits. Just saying. Doesn't mean you can't carry on.

[rluzinski]

87 wins might be enough for the WC (assuming they win at least 3 vs. Padres). Of course if they do that, it's likely they'd beat out the Cubs anyway, but you never know

 

I think the WC is a pipe dream, at this point. Even if the Brewers beat up the Padres, Philli and the Dodgers are still way ahead of them. The WC winner will most likely have about 89 wins. The only way the Brewers are making the playoffs is by passing the Cubs.

[Jopal78]

The Cubs have only 11 games left with a one game lead. If they go 6-5 the rest of the way (which would be about right considering their .560 win percentage over the last month) it would force the Brewers to go 8-5 just to tie. That would be a very tall order with 5 road games left and the 4 gamer with SD on the schedule. So I doubt the Brewers will get to 85 wins, let alone force a playoff game with the Cubs.

[BrewCityUnit]

After last night's game I think the Cubs are going to finish the season 9-2. I thought they were going to finish 8-4 before last night's game but now I just don't see that happening. I would be very surpised if they lost a game at Wrigley again this year.

 

11-2 for the Crew to force a 1 game playoff.

[rluzinski]

I would be very surpised if they lost a game at Wrigley again this year.

 

I would be very surprised if you aren't very surprised soon.