Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic

endaround

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,905

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Forums

Blogs

Events

News

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospects Ranking

Milwaukee Brewers Videos

2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks

Milwaukee Brewers Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks

2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks

The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project

2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Pick Tracker

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by endaround

  1. endaround
    It really isn't. The value for higher prospects is not linear. Made is a FV 60 prospect worth about $55 million which is about twice what what a FV 50 prospect is worth at about $28 million. Now some people have DeVries higher but I tend to trust fangraphs more conservative estimates on prospects than some of places that seems to be more into hyping players than evaluation.
  2. endaround
    Now this is an extreme example, but this is why comparing cardinal rankings of prospects across teams doesn't work. Multiple FV 40+ are in the Padre's top 10 starting at number 6. The first FV 40+ prospect for the Brewers is #13.
  3. endaround
    Their Henderson value was way low when someone pasted it here, likely based upon older rankings. Right now Henderson has a FV 50 grade, even ignoring his major league work which is worth about $20m. Suarez projects for 1.2 wins for the remaining season. If you think he is having a special season, you can maybe say 2.5 wins. That is like $24m at high valuation. He is owed like $7 million, so you are at $17m. So even with a really, really high projection of Suarez at $9m per win Henderson is an overpay. Payne, Gasser, Yoho, Crow would be in line with an overpay but not crazy.
  4. endaround
    Well Peralta is back next year. Myers is about to turn 27, Patrick is about to turn 27, Gasser turns 27 next spring. Crow turns 25 this winter. Then the there a lots of younger pitching prospects. CRod has one more option year to be a an emergency 7/8 starter. The issue is the Brewers do have a log jam even if they keep somebody who should be in MLB in AAA and that might not be the best use of resources doing that. Now everyone throwing Henderson into trade deals is insane, but the Brewers need to thin some of the backend rotation pieces. That of course doesn't need to be in deadline deals.
  5. endaround
    Ortiz since June 1 last season: .213/.282/.326 wRC+ 73. He started his career with two on fire months and has been bad since.
  6. endaround
    Bad
  7. endaround
    I don't see the purpose. Replace Haase? For the 50 PAs he's going to get for the next two months? Sit Contreas more? Jansen grades out as a terrible defensive catcher. Right handed bench power? DH platoon partner in case Hoskins misses more time? Huge home road splits due to playing in a matchbox stadium. I mean the cost is not great but I don't get the vision.
  8. endaround
    Mostly as bench bat and allows Yelich to play OF if needed.
  9. endaround
    Smith is a "utility guy" like Zobrist was a "utility guy". If a guy is getting close to 600PAs and putting up three wins, he's not a "utility guy" but a starter playing multiple positions. Long term the Brewers would likely stick him at 3B and just leave him there but versatility is a bonus not a detriment.
  10. endaround
    It almost like dealing with a veteran quarterback who may have had some of the best coaching in the league prior to you makes installing complicated offenses easier than having to deal with a second year QB who had multiple deal with multiple different coaches in his one year in the league.
  11. endaround
    More like Wichrowski or Meccage than Letson. Seattle gave up two FV 40+ prospects by Fangraphs. So for those saying it would be a huge seller's market, eh.... This is a slight overpay for expected value but they had to overcome the possibility of Arizona getting a draft pick instead which would likely be a higher rated prospect but one they would have to pay for.
  12. endaround
    You want a completely unsexy trade candidate? I've got him! Tauchman is a platoon bat at this part of his career and probably should avoid the field if possible. But as a Left handed insurance policy at DH for Hoskins missing an extended period of time or a bench bat in general he would do nicely. He's cheap and probably a player you could actually trade Black for!
  13. endaround
    I assume he's talking about this Quintana: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jorge-quintana/sa3024107/stats?position=SS Not this Quintana: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jose-quintana/11423/stats?position=P
  14. endaround
    And Suarez could easily turn into what he has been for the majority of his career, a solid but far from Aaron Judge type bat. Most projections have him worth about 1.5 wins the rest of the season. Let's say he is having a special season and add on another win. So 2.5 wins and he's has a salary of about $7 million remaining. At $9 million a win, he has an excess value of $15.5 million. That is a FV 45+ and a FV 45 prospect with a FV 40 or FV 35+ added. So fair value might be Payne, Gassear, and Boeve. That third piece is where you can add some more value to meet a bidding war (Crow, Yoho, Quintanta instead). Anyone in the Brewer top 5 or so prospects is a heavy overpay.
  15. endaround
    If by rumors you mean Jim Bowden making stuff up, sure. But Bowden hasn't had any real inside knowledge from before he fired and definitely not anything in the two decades since.
  16. endaround
    No he won't and the Brewers aren't going to spend money on him.
  17. endaround
    We like DRS when it says Turang was the greatest defensive 2B ever last year and we don't like it when it says Ortiz is terrible at short.
  18. endaround
    Abrams can be expected to be worth about 1.5 wins the rest of this season and 3 wins for each of the 3 seasons going forward. At $9 million a win that is $94.5 million in value. Using a 20%/40%/60% arbitration guideline, he'll be paid approximately $32.7 million, so he'll have an excess value of $61.8 million. Pratt at an FV 50 prospect has about $28 million in value. If you want to make it up without touching other top prospects, it would be really difficult. Maybe if they value Myers as a major league start he could make up a chunk of value.
  19. endaround
    Chad Patrick FIP 3.53 WAR 2.0 Henderson FIP 3.04 WAR 0.7 Misiorowski FIP 3.83 WAR 0.4 Misiorowski may become a top 4 rookie on the Brewers but that is an uphill climb depending upon who comes back to pitch in MLB.
  20. endaround
    Ideally they decide the Collins can handle second, move Turang to shortstop and option Ortiz. What will actually happen is Perkins goes to being a 4th OFer.
  21. endaround
    I'm expecting a huge salary cut next year with the salaries of Vaughn, Cortes, and Hoskins not being replaced (Woodruff is really getting paid next year, part of why no new signings expected). But even then hard to see them moving Peralta. Next year's rotation of Peralta, Misiorowski, Henderson, Patrick, and Priester seems too good to move Peralta to weaken.
  22. endaround
    I think your arbitration numbers are too low. A good rule of thumb is 20%/40%/60% of free agent value. So a 4 win Misiorowski at $8 million per win is $6.4, $12.8, and $19.2 million. At $9 million per win its $7.2, $14.4 and $21.6m.
  23. endaround
    Any rotation? He sits 31st among starting pitcher WAR. This isn't a Myers thing where his ERA doesn't match his FIP. Myers for Rice? That would be a fair exchange I think.
  24. endaround
    A top of rotation starting pitcher for a platoon bat? No thank you.
  25. endaround
    The Brewers did not just give him $17.5 million to rehab. They paid $17.5 million for the gamble that he could provide a 4 win season come 2026 and provide $36-40 million in value. Looks like that is not going to happen, and instead he'll end up around 1.5 wins and $12-15 million in value. The amount Woodruff got was right in line with what top pitchers get to rehab. The Brewer offer is different in that most of the money ($10 million) isn't actually paid until next year. The Woodruff contract is similar to the offer the Brewers gave Hoskins coming off an injury in that they paid an amount with the hope that a return to health would pay off big time. Neither has seem to have done so.
×
×
  • Create New...