sveumrules

Four glaring weaknesses + six glaring strengths = a 116 wRC+ so far this year. With only 649 PA spread over five calendar years there is plenty of time for Mitchell to still improve upon his weaknesses. Considering he has already put up 4.2 WAR over those 649 PA with all his weaknesses there is quite possibly further upside to be tapped into if he can stay healthy long enough to get consistent PAs.

The "old" Lara was extremely young. When he put up a 110 wRC+ at Age 18 between the Carolina and Midwest Leagues he did so against pitchers three to five years older than him on average. When he put up a 94 wRC+ at Age 19 in the Midwest League he did so against pitchers four years older than him on average. When he put up a 116 wRC+ at Age 20 in the Southern League he did so against pitchers four to five years older than him on average. Lara had a 15.8 K% those three years. Average K% for the leagues he played in were 2023 Carolina League (25.3%), 2023-24 Midwest League (23.6%), and 2025 Southern League (23.5%) so his K rate was lower than league average all the way up the ladder.

Vaughn 176 wRC+ Bauers 148 wRC+ Chourio 143 wRC+ Turang 139 wRC+ Yelich 121 wRC+ Mitchell 116 wRC+ Contreras 108 wRC+ The Brewers have seven effective regulars. League average for a #9 hitter is a 76 wRC+ which Hamilton (90 wRC+) clears easily. The evidence is pretty clear, the Brewers have scored the 3rd most runs in baseball while playing at a 100 Win pace thus far. Both of those numbers are ahead of my personal expectations so hard for me to be too disappointed.

Outside of the current Division Leaders it looks like the Phillies (75.1% on FanGraphs | 86.0% on PECOTA) have the best playoff odds among the other NL Contenders. PECOTA still believes in the Cubs (71.5%) more than FanGraphs does (40.0%). Cardinals are kind of the inverse with their 47.3% Playoff Odds the 5th highest among NL teams on FanGraphs, but their 24.3% on PECOTA is 9th in the NL. Pirates have the best run differential of the bunch at +21 while the Nationals (+8) are a few ahead of STL before getting into the less than zero contenders like CHI (-1), ARI (-14), SDP (-16), or even PHI (-17) still reeling from their slow start. For me personally I think the Braves, Dodgers, Brewers and Phillies look like they will take four spots one way or another. That leaves two spots up for grabs amongst six teams that are currently over .500 so I'd probably put them all between 30% and 35% since I don't see too much difference between them. STL prolly closer to 35% just because they've played themselves into a three game cushion over the other five teams to this point.

The $50 fan probably never sits in the seats that are being repurposed, and will still have 40K seats to choose from every game. Pretty much every road stadium already has these sections, heck watching the Nashville highlights they have a section like this is AAA. The Brewers will continue to be one of the best values in MLB with plentiful tickets available for most games, now they'll just have an additional revenue stream too.

If the Brewers lose today it will drop them to 8 W - 5 L (.615 W%) on this dreaded 13 games in 13 days stretch (with three on a mountain and three on the moon). That tracks pretty closely with the 33 W - 20 L (.622 W%) record they had entering the series. Obviously would be great to win every game every day, but every team starts the season with at least fifty some losses guaranteed over the next six months and today is probably another one of those games.

Since Yelich returned on May 12th (giving the Brewers six players for five lineup spots) the Brewers are 19 W - 8 L. Of those 27 games, 21 have been against a right handed starting pitcher. With the Brewers going a perfect 6 W - 0 L against the six lefty starters they faced since 0512 (so much for those southpaw struggles) that leaves a 13 W - 8 L record in those 21 games against right handed starters. Vaughn has started ten of those games versus RHP (with a 72 wRC+ vs RHP since returning from his hamate injury) with the Brewers going 5 W - 5 L in those ten games. That leaves an 8 W - 3 L record in the eleven games Vaughn has not started against RHP since 0512.

It's not a straight up comparison because Contreras is still playing his Age 28 season, but as things currently stand there have been forty primary catchers to get at least 1,500 PA from age 24 to age 28 since 2005 (the first year someone was suspended for PEDs) with William coming in at a 124 wRC+ (7th) and 18.5 WAR (10th) on that leaderboard. Assuming health he should pass all of Yasmani Grandal (19.4 WAR), Miguel Montero (19.5 WAR), and Yadier Molina (19.8 WAR) by season's end to land in 7th place but would need to go on some kind of tear to catch (punintentional) Cal Raleigh in 6th place with 22.9 WAR. Since we already have him under team control for his age 29 season, let's see how some of those age 24 to age 28 catchers did from the age 30 and onward seasons that would be potentially covered if William were willing to sign an extension, or if the Brewers have to win a FA bidding war. Buster Posey 24-28 (142 wRC+ | 32.5 WAR) 30-34 (116 wRC+ | 15.0 WAR) Brian McCann 24-28 (118 wRC+ | 30.6 WAR) 30-35 (98 wRC+ | 11.9 WAR) Jonathan Lucroy 24-28 (113 wRC+ | 29.1 WAR) 30-35 (90 wRC+ | 4.6 WAR) Joe Mauer 24-28 (134 wRC+ | 26.2 WAR) 30-35 (109 wRC+ | 12.3 WAR) Russell Martin 24-28 (104 wRC+ | 24.9 WAR) 30-36 (107 wRC+ | 23.2 WAR) Yadier Molina 24-28 (101 wRC+ | 19.8 WAR) 30-39 (97 wRC+ | 26.9 WAR) Miguel Montero 24-28 (113 wRC+ | 19.5 WAR) 30-34 (89 wRC+ | 7.7 WAR) Yasmani Grandal 24-28 (111 wRC+ | 19.4 WAR) 30-35 (107 wRC+ | 11.8 WAR) JT Realmuto 24-28 (108 wRC+ | 17.5 WAR) 30-35 (106 wRC+ | 18.0 WAR) Catcher attrition rates are pretty brutal. Out of the nine best recent comps only three (Yadi, Martin, JTR) have produced into their thirties enough to justify the kind of contract William should eventually get. Posey would probably be right around a break even point. A couple guys further down that age 24 to age 28 leaderboard in Victor Martinez (124 wRC+ | 12.6 WAR from age 30 to 37) and William's brother Willson (133 wRC+ | 13.9 WAR so far age 30 to 34) continued to rake into their thirties but both moved out from behind the plate too. I wouldn't be opposed to extending Contreras if he is willing (especially if the new CBA somehow makes that more manageable for clubs at the bottom of the Economic Spectrum), but giving what will likely be a top two or three catcher contract of all time approaching or exceeding $200M isn't without risk.

I agree, but the A's are making progress.

Jackson has been much better in the corners (+14 DRS | +7 FRV in 1,795 innings) than in center (-4 DRS | +2 FRV in 803 innings) to this point. If they are indeed extending Lara it's a pretty good sign they believe he is at least a similar calibre defender to Jackson in the corners, but in CF instead. The closest comp for me given their respective size, plate discipline, speed, and defense is Frelick. Obviously off to bad start this year, so maybe not the most popular comp but here's the body of work (among 125 players min. 600 PA as OF since 2023)... 1,540 PA (26th) | 5.9 WAR (35th) 13.7 K% (7th) | .099 ISO (119th) .264 AVG (29th) | .332 OBP (36th) +7.5 BsR (22nd) | 97 wRC+ (81st) +27 DRS | +17 FRV (both 3rd in RF) So despite being a below average overall hitter with some of the worst power in the pool, Sal has still put up solid starter numbers on account of getting on base, running the bases and fielding well. But why extend that guy? Well, when Sal was Lara's age he was still at Boston College, it would take him until the end of the following season before he got to AAA and put up the kind of numbers Lara is putting up now. Luis is also a switch hitter for whatever that is or isn't worth. But the big one might just be that Lara sounds like a surefire CF. For his career Sal has a -14.1 run positional adjustment playing predominantly RF. Playing all his innings in CF instead of mostly RF would have been like a +5.4 positional adjustment instead. Add those two extra wins onto Sal's total and his 7.9 WAR would move him up to 22nd on that 2023 to present OF leaderboard. Essentially boils down to his age relative to Sal & being a switch hitter should hopefully give him a higher ceiling at the plate, while his scouting reports as a top end defensive CF should give him a higher floor.

I too do not see the quoted passage anywhere in the article. When I CTRL-F "Megill" the only hits are in the comments.

The offense (& pitching too) has taken a clear and sizable step forward since Murphy took over. During the 2017 to 2023 competitive window when they won the 6th most games in MLB at 573 W - 460 L (.555 W%) they scored the 17th most runs per game (4.54) and allowed the 6th fewest (4.21) for an average run differential of +0.34 runs per game. Since 2024 their 230 W - 157 (.594 W%) record is the 2nd best in MLB, They have scored the 4th most runs per game (4.94) and allowed the fewest (3.87) for an average run differential of +1.07 runs per game. Their worst full season scoring mark since Murphy took over is 4.80 R/G. BaseRuns thinks they should be scoring 4.77 R/G with neutral sequencing (but we also know the Brewers are specifically designed to impart the residue of their good design at +0.20 R/G over their BaseRuns estimates since Arnold took over in 2023). Barring simultaneous injuries to multiple of our top hitters (again) I'd think that 4.75 to 5.00 R/G is around where I'd set my personal regression meter from the 5.22 R/G they've scored so far this season or the 5.26 R/G they've scored over their last 179 team games.

2025 (4.98 R/G) 2024 (4.80 R/G) 2023 (4.49 R/G) 2022 (4.48 R/G) 2021 (4.56 R/G) 2019 (4.75 R/G) 2018 (4.63 R/G) 2017 (4.52 R/G) 2016 (4.14 R/G) The last time the Brewers scored as infrequently over 162 games as they did in May (4.15 R/G) was a decade ago when pitchers were still hitting. BaseRuns thinks they should have scored 4.77 R/G with neutral sequencing so far this season instead of the 5.22 R/G they've scored being the best team with RISP & one of the most clutch teams (again). Even the notoriously pessimistic FanGraphs projections thinks they are a 4.50 R/G team from here on out.

For the nine completed full seasons since Stearns/Arnold arrived in 2016 the Brewers have beaten their preseason FG projected win totals by an MLB best 87 wins. Eight of the nine years were over (2022 the only under), with five of those at +12 or more and on pace for another double digit overage this year (they were at 83 W). Going back to 2023 their seasonal runs per game differential has been +0.50 then +0.84 then +1.06 and now +1.67 so far this year. Those projections above are showing +0.28 run per game differential over the remaining 99 games. I don't expect them to maintain their current 103 Win pace, but I also don't think the fall off will be quite as steep as FanGraphs is projecting.

If Bauers finishes the year around the 148 wRC+ he is currently sporting (or even the 135 wRC+ his expected wOBA would roughly shake out to) I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Brewers offered and Bauers accepted a QO (or whatever new mechanism maybe replaces it in the next CBA).

DSL Azul prevails by a score of 8 to 5. Five of their nine hits in the seven inning contest went for extra bases including doubles from Gerlyn Payano, Enrique Lovera, and Jose Rodriguez, plus a triple from Leanders Matos, and a home run from Leonard Rijo.

Derlin Garcia did just that striking out TEN against only 2 H | 1 BB in his five scoreless frames.

Noticed that Garrett Mitchell cleared 600 PA in the outfield yesterday, making him one of 150 players (a nice even five per team) with that many PA playing in the OF going back to 2022. Here are some of his ranks of that leaderboard... 601 PA (149th) | 3.7 WAR (t-75th) 34.3 K% (146th) | .380 BABIP (1st) 10.8 BB% (32nd) | 51.3 GB% (6th) .162 ISO (82nd) | 109 wRC+ (49th)

On April 25th the Brewers were sitting at 13 W - 13 L, their low point of the season so far. Since then their 27 W - 10 L record is the best in MLB, 1.5 games ahead of ATL / PHI at 26 W - 12 L over that same stretch. Some of their pertinent rankings... OFFENSE 5.46 R/G (1st) | 113 wRC+ (t-2nd) .316 BABIP (t-1st) | .265 AVG (1st) 10.5 BB% (2nd) | .345 OBP (1st) 19.6 K% (3rd) | 47.9 GB% (1st) +3.13 WPA (2nd) | 1.97 Clutch (2nd) .325xwOBA (10th) | .334 wOBA (t-3rd) 39.1 HardHit% (17th) | 7.1 Barrel% (24th) 31 HR (28th) | .139 ISO (26th) 441 PA w/ RISP (1st) 125 wRC+ w/ RISP (3rd) 152 RBI w/ RISP (1st) PITCHING 3.00 RA/G (1st) | 2.77 ERA (1st) 2.95 FIP (1st) | 3.11 xERA (1st) 27.6 K% (1st) | 0.62 HR9 (1st) .206 AVG (2nd) | 1.12 WHIP (2nd) 77.6% Strand Rate (4th) | +5.37 WPA (2nd) 33.8 HardHit% (1st) | 5.6 Barrel% (t-1st) 103.0 EV90 (1st) Overall for these last 37 games their MLB best run differential is +91 (202 scored and 111 allowed) or +2.46 runs per game. The low point of last year's season came a little later on with the Brewers still sitting at 21 W - 25 L after the game on May 17th. From then thru yesterday their 116 W - 63 L record is the best in MLB, eleven games ahead of NYY at 106 W - 75 L. Some of their pertinent rankings... OFFENSE 5.26 R/G (1st) | 112 wRC+ (2nd) .311 BABIP (1st) | .263 AVG (t-1st) 9.8 BB% (2nd) | .341 OBP (1st) 19.9 K% (3rd) | 45.6 GB% (1st) +11.59 WPA (1st) | 4.30 Clutch (2nd) .320 xwOBA (9th) | .330 wOBA (2nd) 39.3 HardHit% (22nd) | 6.9 Barrel% (28th) 179 HR (25th) | .147 ISO (25th) 1,991 PA w/ RISP (1st) 125 wRC+ w/ RISP (1st) 699 RBI w/ RISP (1st) PITCHING 3.66 RA/G (1st) | 3.32 ERA (1st) 3.58 FIP (1st) | 3.55 xERA (1st) 25.2 K% (1st) | 0.92 HR9 (1st) .222 AVG (2nd) | 1.19 WHIP (4th) 75.8% Strand Rate (2nd) | +14.91 WPA (1st) 37.6 HardHit% (1st) | 7.3 Barrel% (1st) 104.4 EV90 (2nd) Overall for these last 179 games their MLB best run differential is +287 (942 scored and 655 allowed) or +1.60 runs per game.

Perkins is just holding on to a roster spot until Lockridge is ready. As bad as Blake's 176/263/265 (53 wRC+) vs LHP was entering today it was still considerably better than Sal at 127/183/200 (7 wRC+) vs LHP so far this year. For their careers it is a 90 wRC+ vs LHP for Perkins vs a 77 wRC+ vs LHP for Frelick. Since Chourio came back on May 4th and Lockridge got injured on May 8th, Perkins has started a grand total of four games (all wins, naturally). They aren't going to call up Lara and interrupt his development for that kind of scant playing time. Right now there are only five lineup spots for the six of Vaughn, Bauers, Yelich, Chourio, Mitchell and Frelick in any one game. Believe it will probably take one of the three regular OF getting injured for a stretch (even then they might be fine platooning Bauers/Lockridge) or maybe Sal hitting poorly for another couple months before they would consider Luis. As far as Ortiz, his +3 DRS is tied for 3rd and his +4 FRV is 6th among shortstops with 250 innings this year. Until the Brewers evaluators believe Pratt is ready for MLB that SS defense is valuable since Hamilton has appeared overmatched there (-4 FRV this year, -10 for his career). Much like the Brewers as a team [89 wRC+ Bases Empty (22nd) vs 133 wRC+ w/ RISP (1st)], Joey has saved his best for the bigger moments at the plate to this point (51 wRC+ Bases Empty vs 138 wRC+ w/ RISP) so his contributions to winning and losing -0.67 WPA (58th worst min. 130 PA this year) haven't been quite as bad as his raw batting line (59 wRC+ | 20th lowest min. 130 PA).

Top Five MLB Run Differentials 01. Dodgers +141 02. Braves +116 03. Brewers +105 04. Yankees +86 05. Pirates +30 How bad has the Pirates defense (-14 FRV | 28th) and performance with runners on (69% strand rate | 25th) been so far this year? BaseRuns thinks they should be giving up 4.22 runs per game (12th) but they have actually given up 4.62 runs per game (20th). They have a 3.77 FIP (7th), 3.82 xERA (8th) and 3.84 SIERA (10th) but a 4.09 ERA (15th) plus those 0.53 unearned runs per game dropping them down another five spots on the overall RA/G allowed leaderboard.

Is he though? The Brewers have scored the 4th most runs in baseball since Murphy took over. From reading these game threads it seems like many would scoff at the notion of the Brewers even being a Top Ten offense (their 103 wRC+ is 11th in MLB so far this year). Whatever qualms some might have with his lineups, they score more runs than they should given the underlying numbers. Since Murphy took over Brewers relievers are 2nd in MLB with +19.22 Win Probability Added, a healthy dose below CLE in 1st at +27.07 and a slightly less healthy does ahead of ATL in 3rd at +13.86. Does he make the right call every time? Of course not, no manager does. But his calls work out at a higher rate than all but one other manager in MLB over the last two plus years. There's already a whole thread for that.

Mass Haas noted in the game thread from a few days ago that Rick Sweet had mentioned in a pregame interview there was a bug going around the clubhouse. Believe that was what kept Wilken out of action for like a week recently.

My day job does not involve math, just always been interested in all those numbers on the back of the baseball cards ever since opening my first pack of 1986 Topps. Pic is Sveumer’s actual senior photo, if the internet is to be believed. Stole it off one of those yearbook pages forever ago.

For sure, from 2023 to present they have given up the least runs in baseball which makes the hitter's job that much easier (though those same hitters also made the pitcher's jobs that much easier by shaving an MLB best 0.40 runs per game with a 4.02 FIP but 3.62 ERA over that stretch).