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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Looks like Eric Brown Jr notched a pair of walks and a stolen base (and got picked off) in his return to action tonight.
  2. sveumrules
    Good to see on DT. Abner also struck out the side with a BB in his inning. Hopefully Frelick is just a contusion or something and not a Yelich situation.
  3. sveumrules
    Link Report says…YES
  4. sveumrules
    Maybe not “qualified” but Lara (.318 in 162 PAs) and Perkins (.317 in 166 PAs) are both over three hundred in decent sized samples. Guilarte (.292 in 156 PAs) and Carlos Rodriguez (.292 in 194 PAs) aren’t that far off either.
  5. sveumrules
    Definitely going to be a pivotal offseason. Will Horst run back a team that won the most games in the NBA then laid an egg in the playoffs (but with a hurt Giannis and understandably distracted HC to a team on an epic heater they rode all the way to the finals) and hope changing the coaching staff and minor tweaks around the edges will suffice? Its the path of least resistance and would likely still have the Bucks among the top two tree teams in the East and top half dozen or so overall in terms of Championship odds for next year. Or do they get creative and try to package some combo of Pat, Bobby, Grayson for either more of a true PG or an athletic wing defender to join Jrue, Khris, Giannis, Brook in the starting five?
  6. sveumrules
    From my understanding the Bucks are capped out so their only options are to resign Middleton or to sign and trade him, otherwise they lose his salary slot.
  7. sveumrules
    I’d say that tweet is overly dire as it includes a lot of bad performances - Turang (177 PA | 55 wRC+), Brosseau (78 PA | 75 wRC+), Taylor (78 PA | 8 wRC+), Voit (74 PA | 54 wRC+), Singleton (32 PA | -8 wRC+) and Ruf (30 PA | 54 wRC+) - that aren’t immediately relevant to what the Brewers offense will be like moving forward. The Brewers as a team have posted -39.4 wRAA, those six players account for -30.8 wRAA or about 78% of the team’s offensive underperformance at this point. In the near term guys like Adames (79 wRC+), Winker (63 wRC+), Tellez (89 wRC+) and Urias (79 wRC+) need to hit closer to their career norms. That’s the big one. Frelick, Hiura, maybe Black if they wanna get crazy are about the only hopes on the farm. Thats pretty much it until the deadline.
  8. sveumrules
    Yeah, not sure Rowdy makes that same play if he was in there. Carroll would have been next up, though I guess first base would have open, but if you walk him that brings the winning run to the plate so maybe instead… Ahhh, just hypotheticals.
  9. sveumrules
    He out.
  10. sveumrules
    Can we get Edgardo Ordonez some more consistent PAs please? Did nothing but rope for two summers in the DSL and is 2-3 so far today giving him a .444 average and 1.056 OPS over his first 20 Arizona PAs.
  11. sveumrules
    Braun 13-20 3486 PA | 120 wRC+ | 14.1 WAR | 2.43 WAR/600 PA Yelich 20-23 1682 PA | 110 wRC+ | 6.7 WAR | 2.39 WAR/600 PA Post-peak Braun hit better, but post-peak Yelich has fielded and run the bases better so their WAR/600 PA comes out about as close as it gets.
  12. sveumrules
    Right, the Brewers can’t hit (87 wRC+ | 25th) while STL can (106 wRC+ | 11th). Now let’s do the rest of the team. Defense MIL: +34 DRS (3rd) STL: -22 DRS (27th) Starting Pitchers MIL: 5.9 rWAR (9th) STL: 2.6 rWAR (24th) Relief Pitchers MIL: +4.26 WPA (1st) STL: -2.76 WPA (27th)
  13. sveumrules
    Welcome to the site. I’d think someone in that 12-17 range (Jarvis, Zamora, Wood, Adams) or so on the BF.com Top 20 would probably be needed to win the Turner sweepstakes if the Red Sox put him on the market.
  14. sveumrules
    He’s been working with the four pitch mix since 2021, so not sure if it was really the birth so much as maybe a tweaked version thereof. Here are his pitch percentages each of the last three years… FB: 53.1, 54.9, 53.3 SL: 26.4, 18.3, 20.8 CB: 10.9, 16.3, 14.0 CH: 9.7, 10.4, 11.9 Pretty consistent. Slider usage dropped off in 2022 in favor of more curves, while the change has been gradually thrown more. Here are the pitch values per 100 pitches over the last three years… FB: +1.40, +0.67, -0.21 SL: +1.14, +0.19, -0.86 CB: +2.43, +1.99, -0.35 CH: -0.90, +1.24, -0.61 Ouch. In 2021/22 he was positive on seven out of eight. This year all four pitches are getting negative results. Fastball, slider and curve all waaay down from 2021. I think the main thing is Freddy’s fastball losing effectiveness requires him to be more precise with his location, which has never been a strong suit. Here’s the resulting batted ball results over the last three years… BABIP: .230, .246, .286 HR/9: 0.87, 0.69, 1.65 Barrel%: 6.0, 3.5, 9,9 HardHit%: 27.7, 26.9, 31.6 Diminished stuff + poor command in the zone = nightmare batted ball profile.
  15. sveumrules
    Kinda like with McCutchen vs Hiura last year, the Brewers seem to put more faith in the projections than actual to date production this early in the season. Winker (55 actual wRC+ vs 106-115 projected), Adames (78 actual wRC+ vs 102-120 projected) and Rowdy (98 actual wRC+ vs 111-123 projected) “should be” three of our better hitters moving forward even if they haven’t been thus far. That appears to be the reasoning behind the lineup construction anyway.
  16. sveumrules
    Looking at the Stuff+ metric his fastball (116, 109, 118 last three seasons) and slider (119, 102, 122 last three seasons) have been good. His curve (102, 127, 81) has really fallen off by this measure and his change up (70, 86, 50) has never graded out well but has been extra bad this year. Looking at StatCast his xERA has jumped to 4.31 this year after sitting at 2.66/2.70 in 21/22. Barrel percentage up to 9.9% vs 6.0%/3.5% in 21/22, so looks like location has been the primary culprit as @nate82 alluded to.
  17. sveumrules
    Reds and Pirates fans are probably feeling pretty good about their chances based on how they’ve played relative to preseason expectations. All three projection systems currently have the Cubs as the lead challenger, though I’d guess their fans are less optimistic than the computers. Cardinals fans have history on their side but have to think they’re getting increasingly antsy as they find themselves with the worst record in the NL.
  18. sveumrules
    Looks like StatCast has OF throwing data going back to 2020. Yelich average competitive throw has gone 79.4, 79.7, 81.8 and up to 85.0 MPH this year. His max velo throw has gone 83.8, 85.5, 88.1 and up to 95.0 MPH this year. Maybe his back has just been feeling better this year, maybe he made a concerted effort in the offseason to improve his arm strength, maybe some of both?
  19. sveumrules
    Yeah, that StatCast aligns pretty perfect with Dubon’s scouting reports as a prospect. Elite bat to ball, good speed, bad arm, worse power. He’s pretty much maxing his offensive profile right now and he’s still only got a 97 OPS+, with his glove (+6 on defense) doing the heavy lifting for his value.
  20. sveumrules
    Cool to see Mauricio putting up some numbers four years and two organizations after being traded. Orlando Arcia is doing even better, 128 OPS+ and 2.0 WAR. Sometimes it takes a thousand or two PAs to figure things out. MLB is hard.
  21. sveumrules
    Above is how the computers saw the division race back on May 8th. Five weeks later over 40% of the season is now in the books, and the Brewers are in the midst of their second six game losing streak of the season with current division leader Pittsburgh on tap. Here's how things have moved in the interim... BPro MIL: 85 W | 78% Div CHI: 77 W | 12% Div PIT: 75 W | 5% Div STL: 75 W | 4% Div CIN: 73 W | 2% Div 538 MIL: 82 W | 54% Div CHI: 77 W | 22% Div PIT: 76 W | 17% Div CIN: 76 W | 15% Div STL: 73 W | 8% Div FanGraphs MIL: 82 W | 47% Div PIT: 78 W | 18% Div CHI: 77 W | 15% Div STL: 77 W | 12% Div CIN: 76 W | 8% Div
  22. sveumrules
    Adames currently has a 78 wRC+, if he keeps not hitting like that I don’t think there will be a ton of demand. The Dodgers are the only contender who have gotten worse SS production than the Brewers to this point, so might be tough to get a bidding war going when SS isn’t a pressing need for the majority of contenders.
  23. sveumrules
    Greinke made a conscious decision to pitch to his FIP with Milwaukee, and specifically changed his approach to be more groundball heavy in an effort to limit home runs. Batted ball profiles… 2008-10 w/ KCR 100 LD%+ | 99 GB%+ | 101 FB%+ 2011-12 w/ MIL 108 LD%+ | 111 GB%+ | 81 FB%+ 2013-15 w/ LAD 103 LD%+ | 103 GB%+ | 93 FB%+ 2016-18 w/ARI 96 LD%+ | 103 GB%+ | 99 FB%+ His batted ball profile was much more evenly distributed both before and after his stint with Milwaukee. When you consider Brewers IF posted -29 DRS from 2011-12 vs +32 DRS for the OF, Greinke maybe outsmarted himself somewhat. He definitely had ace level peripherals with the Brewers, and was successful in his goal of putting up the best FIP he could, but it didn’t translate to ace level run prevention (in part because he was intentionally trying to induce grounders to a Yuni, Rickie, Prince infield) or IP totals (because he was running up his pitch counts trying to strike everybody out).
  24. sveumrules
    Hader first last deadline, then Stearns last offseason, maybe Burnes and/or Adames (though he isn’t an OG) at the upcoming deadline, then possibly Counsell and/or Woodruff in the off season. Definitely getting close to the end of this particular era of Brewers baseball and looking increasingly like they’ll go out with more of a whimper than a bang unfortunately. But hey, who knows, at this time in 2021 the Braves hadn’t even acquired NLCS MVP Eddie Rosario or World Series MVP Jorge Soler yet so I’ll keep an open mind towards potential future outcomes for a lil while longer yet.
  25. sveumrules
    Greinke went 25-9 primarily because the Brewers averaged 5.3 runs scored during his starts, the best run support of any regular Brewers SP during his tenure and even a fraction better than Cy Vuke got from the 1982 Brewers. During Greinke’s time with the Brewers (2011 thru 7/24/2012) there were 76 qualified starting pitchers. Here are Greinke’s ranks… 294 IP (55th) | 93 ERA- (35th) | 3.6 rWAR (46th) | 1.20 WHIP (24th) | 4.42 K/BB (4th) He didn’t pitch an ace’s quantity of innings, he didn’t prevent runs at the same rate that an ace does and he didn’t really even prevent base runners at an ace level. The only thing remotely ace-y about his performance was the K/BB ratio. My definition of an ace for that time period would be guys who pitched like Verlander (399 IP | 58 ERA- | 14.3 rWAR), Weaver (346 IP | 60 ERA- | 12.3 rWAR), Kershaw (373 IP | 70 ERA- | 10.6 rWAR), Halladay (317 IP | 74 ERA- | 9.4 rWAR), Cliff (351 IP | 75 ERA- | 10.0 rWAR) and Hamels (349 IP | 76 ERA- | 9.7 rWAR).
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