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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Ortiz 3B (1115 innings) +9 DRS | +8 FRV Mona 3B (662 innings) +5 DRS | -1 FRV Ortiz SS (1102 innings) -1 DRS | +8 FRV Mona SS (165 innings) -2 DRS | 0 FRV Outside of DRS at 3B they haven't really graded out too similarly. DRS at SS is close too, but Ortiz has over six times the innings that Mona does and DRS at SS also appears to be the outlier on Ortiz's advanced metrics.
  2. sveumrules
    Maybe not quite Parsons level, but Jacobs and McKinney were pretty impactful signings just last year.
  3. sveumrules
    My initial instinct was yes because they had been promoted together to Carolina and then Wisconsin. Made's performance has been on a whole other level than Pena since getting to Wisco though so I could see Made starting in Biloxi straightaway while Pena repeats Wisco to open the year with a potential midseason promotion to Biloxi if his performance merits it. Believe the Shuckers have one extra week of play after the T-Rats wrap things up, so could get a little bit of a clue if one or both get bumped up for that last week (& playoffs) similar to Chourio in 2022.
  4. sveumrules
    Adamczewsski has Luke Adams beat on wRC+ over the last two years (& alphabetically for whatever that is or isn't worth in tie breaker scenarios), but Luke has been raking for an extra year with his 148 wRC+ since 2023 tied with Xavier Isaac for the best mark in all of MiLB (min. 1000 PA) over the last three years. Not bad having two of the better hitters statistically in MiLB over the last couple two tree years and the system is so deep that they are both in the fringe Top Ten-ish sort of range.
  5. sveumrules
    Luis Pena outproduced Jesus Made in the DSL (173 to 167 wRC+) and with Carolina (139 to 122 wRC+), but Made's blazing 81 PA of 175 wRC+ with Wisco (compared to only a 71 wRC+ over 74 PA for Pena) has inched Jesus just ahead in their respective career lines... 297/406/462 (143 wRC+) 14.8 BB% | 18.1 K% 70 SB / 15 CS 318/386/491 (141 wRC+) 8.6 BB% | 13.2 K% 82 SB / 11 CS Just for fun, here is Chourio over his first two years, with the caveat that his overall numbers are dragged down a bit by his six games at AA to end 2022 where he put up a -30 wRC+ and 42.3 K% over those 26 PA... 290/355/512 (131 wRC+) 8.8 BB% | 23.2 K% 24 SB / 7 CS
  6. sveumrules
    An interesting tool set is great and all, but there are 87 Brewers with at least 100 PA on the island since 2021. Maybe big bonus guys like Pena (173 wRC+), Made (167 wRC+), and Chourio (130 wRC+) have skewed expectations somewhat, but even non-nuclear big bonus prospects like Yophery (124 wRC+), Di Turi (117 wRC+), and Quintana (110 wRC+) still managed above average batting lines in the DSL. Not to mention all the low bonus guys like Ortuno (157 wRC+), Anderson (147 wRC+). Ibarguen (139 wRC+), Nadal (131 wRC+), Rangel (130 wRC+), Polanco (129 wRC+), Juan Martinez (125 wRC+), et cetera that came out of nowhere to put up big lines. Fenelon's 95 wRC+ ranked 45th on that list, below even little Luis Lara with a 98 wRC+ in his DSL year. Antunez (79 wRC+ | 71st) and Acosta (77 wRC+ | 72nd) are waaay down there, especially for seven figure guys. Hard to classify their professional debuts as anything but disappointing in the context of the talent the DSL Academy has turned out of late. Doesn't mean they are doomed forever to irrelevance, just that their initial performance was below established standards compared to recent performances by similarly heralded (or even much less heralded prospects).
  7. sveumrules
    Win Probability Added agrees… Shelby +.254 Contreras +.247 Yelich +.162 Vaughn +.126 Misio +.113 Collins +.105 then on the other end of the spectrum… Koenig -.416
  8. sveumrules
    Would imagine voters are more likely to go off his 5.1 runs allowed WAR (tied for 3rd in NL with Wheeler) or his 4.4 WAR on BRef which is tied for 6th in the NL than his FIP based WAR. Old school voters could also be swayed by his impressive W/L record, especially if he manages to hit the elusive 20 wins. But yeah, Skenes and Sanchez should be an easy #1/#2 for NL CY and Freddy really only has a shot at #3 because Wheeler got hurt.
  9. sveumrules
    Can use a few different chronological dividing lines for the offense depending how one wants to do things to show their power growth as the season has gone on, using ISO which accounts for all extra base hits not just HR... First 46 Games 229/306/346 .117 ISO (28th) Last 86 Games 272/345/434 .162 ISO (16th) or... First 69 Games 234/313/361 .127 ISO (27th) Sal to Lead Off 282/352/450 .169 ISO (15th) or... First 90 Games 247/322/381 .135 ISO (26th) Vaughn gets Here 279/353/452 .173 ISO (12th) or... First 107 Games 252/325/387 .136 ISO (27th) Bill & Brice HR Surge 281/359/475 .194 ISO (8th)
  10. sveumrules
    Going through the game logs looks like Priester (x3), Peralta (x2), Quintana (x2), and Woodruff (x1) have combined for eight outings greater than 6.0 IP so it’s not completely out of the question!!
  11. sveumrules
    Sorry, don’t have any. Priester (5.4), Woody (5.5), Peralta (5.5) and Quintana (5.6) all average five to six innings per start. Misio (4.4) is four to five. Even with the shorter outings the Brewers are still 58 W - 26 L (.690 W%) when one of those five start the game.
  12. sveumrules
    The Brewers are still an MLB best 18 W - 6 L since the trade deadline, 2.5 games ahead of PHI. That includes a 3 W - 1 L record in the four games started by Misio and his fill ins. How much better do you think they could have realistically been? 19 W - 5 L instead?
  13. sveumrules
    I mean drawing a walk with no ISO is kinda the Brewers whole thing. Going back to Arnold’s first year in 2023 they are 3rd in walk rate and 25th in ISO (while scoring the 7th most runs and winning the 2nd most games in MLB). Seigler was hitting 263/370/263 (91 wRC+) in his 47 PA as a third baseman entering tonight, so Murph isn’t wrong in saying he has a knack for getting on base even if it has just been a neat trick with no ISO yet. His seasonal line is dragged down considerably by going 1 for 15 (2 BB) over 17 PA as a PH/DH/1B. They’ve also gone 11 W - 3 L in Seigler’s 14 much ballyhooed starts at 3B so his lack of ISO hasn’t really cost them too much so far.
  14. sveumrules
    There are 462 players with at least 50 PA vs RHP this year. Seigler's 51 wRC+ vs RHP ties him 407th to 413th on that list so there have been 49 batters worse than Seigler. Bottom of the list is MJ Melendez at 077/111/115 (-47 wRC+).
  15. sveumrules
    Yeah, Ashby has been one of the most dominant relief arms on a rate basis the last two seasons, only thing missing is the quantity with just 67 IP (194th). Ranks are among 224 relivers min. 60 IP since last year... 119 LOB+ (2nd) | 45 ERA- (4th) | 58 FIP- (4th) | 137 GB%+ (10th) | 36 HR9+ (12th) | 140 K%+ (20th) | 78 WHIP+ (24th) | 81 AVG+ (34th) | 2.2 rWAR (34th) | 1.5 fWAR (57th) | +1.61 WPA (58th) Walks (91 BB+ | 72nd) have been his biggest performance bugaboo and he's still been better than average there.
  16. sveumrules
    Some serious shade here on Luke Adams 21 HBP which still lead the Southern League as well. Darrien Miller trying to catch him in 2nd place with 14 plunks of his own.
  17. sveumrules
    Over 1,210 PA with the Yankees organization from 2018 to 2024 Seigler hit 218/359/358 (108 wRC+). This includes all his time at the easiest / lowest levels of the minor leagues. Over his 267 PA with the Brewers in AAA this year he hit 277/416/465 (140 wRC+). Could just be small sample noise, could be a player in his physical prime experiencing a change in his true talent level. Only way to find out is to run him out there at the MLB level to see what happens.
  18. sveumrules
    No worries, hopefully they can win tonight by four or more runs so we can get Megill & the other leverage arms another day of rest either way.
  19. sveumrules
    Nice breakdown & video highlight reel of Made’s SS defense over at FanGraphs today. Sounds like Longenhagen is doing this for all the top ranked SS prospects so future installments will likely feature Pratt and Peña as well.
  20. sveumrules
    Where did I sing a different tune? My belief remains that Megill throwing the fewest IP among top closers means it’s hard to argue he’s been overused. Trevor is 5th on the team in games, and 6th in IP. If he’s been overused than so have Uribe, Megill, Mears, Anderson, and Ashby who all have more appearances and/or innings than Megill.
  21. sveumrules
    Welcome to the board, sometimes the things that pass for knowledge I can't understand...but I'm still trying anyway.
  22. sveumrules
    Yeah, not sure how Miller at 194/381/329 with a 16.3 CS% in Biloxi this year is ahead of Wood at 263/355/389 with a 29.9 CS% since his promotion. Miller still can't throw anyone out and his batting line is propped up entirely by an unsustainable 18.5 BB% (and 6.3 HBP%) with accompanying 24.5 K% while Wood has a much more promising 10.5 BB% | 12.5 K% under the hood in Biloxi. Seigler is fine as a third or emergency catcher, but expecting him to be the backup backstop (even with how rarely Contreras sits) is probably stretching things, especially with only a 20.0 CS% for his minor league career.
  23. sveumrules
    The Brewers have plenty of confidence, some of their fans…not so much.
  24. sveumrules
    Megill has the lowest IP among the top 15 MLB relievers in saves, he isn't being overused. Misio also has 63.1 IP in AAA this year for a total of 112 IP combined, though I'm not sure what the relevance is between a 23 year old starting pitching prospect and a 31 year old one inning closer.
  25. sveumrules
    If you wanted to put things in perspective, a better comparison would be Megill versus other top closers... Carlos Estevez 34 SV | 57.1 IP Robert Suarez 34 SV | 55.1 IP Trevor Megill 30 SV | 46.0 IP Andres Munoz 30 SV | 50.0 IP Josh Hader 28 SV | 52.2 IP Jeff Hoffman 28 SV | 54.0 IP Emilio Pagan 25 SV | 54.1 IP Aroldis Chapman 24 SV | 50.0 IP Edwin Diaz 24 SV | 49.0 IP Kyle Finnegan 24 SV | 49.2 IP Emmanuel Clase 24 SV | 47.1 IP (hasn't pitched in a month) Kenley Jansen 23 SV | 49.0 IP Jhoan Duran 23 SV | 57.0 IP Raisel Iglesias 22 SV | 54.2 IP Pete Fairbanks 22 SV | 48.1 IP Ryan Helsley 21 SV | 43.1 IP Considering you have to go all the way down to the guy who is 16th in saves before you reach someone with fewer IP than Megill its hard for me to say workload has been an issue with Trevor when the other top closers all have more innings than he does.
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