sveumrules

There will surely be one (& maybe even two) CBA re-negotiations before any kind of expansion were to take place. If the MLBPA and owners want to do something about revenue disparity they will have the chance(s) to do so before expanding. (I wouldn’t hold my breath though) Expansion fees of $1.5B per new team would mean $100M for each of the current 30 teams (or $66.6M each if the expansion fee is only $1B) so I can see why Manfred and the owners might prioritize that over fixing a system the involved parties don’t believe is nearly as broken as small market fans believe it to be.

The Brewers primary allegiance here is with the other 29 teams in doing their best to ensure that Arby's salaries grow as slowly as possible. By refusing to meet somewhere between the two figures William is hoping to do the opposite on behalf of future catchers. The Brewers already offered him a record tying amount for his position and service time, any accepted compromise above that number by Contreras would have constituted a new record. Now who knows the specifics, maybe the Brewers were only willing to go up to say $9M on a pre-hearing agreement and clearly William and his agent think his performance to date is worth closer to $10M based on the established precedents of the Arby's system. Hard for me to say it's a mistake by either side without knowing those specifics. If say Contreras and his camp weren't willing to go below $9.5M, that's pushing the line up pretty aggressively over the top previously established comp. No doubt, Contreras is worth three times that in a holistic sense, but now if Quero and/or Dinges hit down the line that number will be pushed even higher for them by the other catchers that reach Arby's in the interim. As a draft and develop team the Brewers are probably extra motivated to keep those Arby's figures from growing too fast also since pre-FA players are the lifeblood of the organization.

That no team was willing to offer a proven MLB bat for one year of Peralta. Or, that the Brewers brass preferred whatever hypothetical combination of a starter and prospects were offered versus whatever hypothetical proven MLB bat was offered.

Gotcha, sounds like that’s mostly the same as what savant has available then. Thought TJS or somebody else went through (or more likely wrote some code to go through) all the MILB GameDays to scrub info for the random stadiums that display the full StstCast array with pitch type / velo / location along with batted ball info at the lower levels.

There was some good with a .300 batting average and more walks than strikeouts over his 92 PA with Carolina. He was also a little old for A ball as a college draftee and and only had one XBH to go along with his twenty singles, so definitely needs to swing harder/add bat speed to improve upon his current 5th OF kind of profile.

I don't really dabble too much in that realm personally, but I believe TJ Stats has a Patreon where a lot of that kind of information (or at least as much as is publicly accessible) is available for subscribers.

SHOW ME THE MONEYS!!

Check back in October, until then all anyone is doing is guessing (with varying degrees of emotion/research going into each guess depending on the individual).

So this whole time you've been adamant that the Red Sox would have to be the ones to add value in a hypothetical Duran/Peralta swap, you've been admittedly operating from a position where you didn't even have a firm grasp on Duran's true value (13.2 fWAR | 15.5 bWAR last three years) and thought he was just a little better than Frelick (6.2 fWAR | 6.3 bWAR last three years)?

In the PED testing era (2004 thru 2025) there have been 36 primary third basemen to get at least 400 PA in their age 32 season (Bregman's age in 2026). Of those 36 there were two above six WAR, three between 5.5 and 5.8 WAR, then eight more between 3.0 and 4.1 WAR. Using the same parameters but moving it up to age 33 season, there are 35 primary third basemen on the leaderboard. One of those was above six WAR, another three were between 4.5 and 5.2 WAR, then another eight guys were between 2.9 and 4.2 WAR. At age 34 the number of qualifiers drops off to only 23. Tops on the board is Aramis Ramirez with the Brewers at 5.4 WAR back in 2012 with 2013 Adrian Beltre half a win back at 4.9 WAR. After them there are another ten guys between 3.0 and 4.1 WAR. By age 35 the number of qualifiers (even at the low 400 PA threshold) drops off to 13. Chipper Jones (a nice 6.9 WAR) and Beltre again (5.9 WAR) top the list with six more guys between 3.4 and 4.6 WAR. Age 36 also had 13 primary 3B with at least 400 PA from 2004 to 2025. Chipper (7.1 WAR) was fractions better then there were four guys between 2.9 and 4.3 WAR. All told, the best 3B from age 32 to 36 in the PED testing era have been Beltre (3102 PA | 133 wRC+ | 26.9 WAR), Chipper (2,610 PA | 152 wRC+ | 26.1 WAR) and A-Rod (2,681 PA | 132 wRC+ | 20.4 WAR). After them it drops down to probably the best case scenario comp for Bregman with Justin Turner coming in at 2,305 PA | 139 wRC+ | 19.1 WAR. (From age 27 to 31 Bregman went for 2,909 PA | 124 wRC+ | 19.6 WAR for reference) From there it's guys like Melvin Mora (3102 PA | 117 wRC+ | 16.8 WAR), Scott Rolen (2,249 PA | 108 wRC+ | 14.7 WAR), Casey Blake (2855 PA | 110 wRC+ | 14.4 WAR), Placido Polanco (2758 PA | 92 wRC+ | 12.4 WAR), Josh Donaldson (2069 PA | 119 wRC+ | 12.2 WAR), and Aramis (2,645 PA | 122 wRC+ | 11.7 WAR).

There is a little more of an onus on the Cubs to get better. They lost the division by five games last year. They they lost Tucker (4.5 WAR), Brad Keller (2.2 rWAR), and Drew Pomeranz (1.3 rWAR) to free agency. That's another eight wins out the door. Trading for Cabrera and signing Bregman mitigates those losses some for sure, and will probably even be enough to make them Division Favorites amongst the punditry again. And that's all fine, the Brewers haven't been Division Favorites in any of the last three seasons but won the NLC every year anyway, and by two dozen combined games to boot. When the Cubs are still paying 35/36 year old Bregman $35M a few years from now the Brewers could have Made or Fischer or Pena or who knows what kind of young trade acquisition in their prime playing third base.

The Brewers have won the NLC each of the last three seasons, and four of the last five. You are right, that is some pretty impressive consistency.

Pratt's glove is his carrying tool at the moment, and slick fielding doesn't get you quite as much roast beef in Arby's as offensive numbers do, so barring a big uptick in performance this year I'd guess Cooper ends up being a year to year guy. Definitely an imperfect comparison given differing contextual factors (namely age and offensive environment) but Joey Ortiz hit for a 106 wRC+ over 552 PA at AA versus Pratt hitting for a 107 wRC+ over 527 PA at AA. Couple advantages working for Cooper are obviously that he was three years younger than Joey was at the time, and he also had better plate discipline at 0.84 BB/K for Pratt versus a 0.49 BB/K for Ortiz. Those factors combined with his larger frame give him a chance to have more offensive upside down the road, but at the moment I think Cooper reads like the kind of SS that will come in at say like +5 to +10 runs on defense and you hope his wRC+ is in the nineties (prolly more likely eighties though) which shakes out around a couple two tree wins or so. Best realistic case is probably that he follows something like the Frelick (749 PA of 89 wRC+ from 2023-24 before 594 PA of 114 wRC+ in 2025) or Turang (1,067 PA of 77 wRC+ from 2023-24 before 659 PA of 124 wRC+ in 2025) Three Year Plan.

Pratt hit .304 over 364 PA in the ACL and the Carolina League. He has since hit .235 over 621 PA in the Midwest and Southern League. 1990's Wade Boggs comp (hit for a .300 average seven different times in the decade) might be a little premature, especially considering only seven qualified hitters in all of MLB reached .300 last year. When Wade Boggs hit .301 over 334 PA as a 41 year old in 1999 there were 55 qualified hitters with at least a .300 average and another 17 if you lowered the threshold to 300 PA.

Not sure Dominguez would be up to snuff defensively for the Brewers. Among 33 players with at least 800 innings in LF the last two years he is at -8 DRS (29th) and -10 FRV (27th) in only 898 innings. The other LF who have graded out equally poorly have done so in more innings (Teoscar aside) and are also older dudes (James Wood aside). If Jasson is already putting up numbers that bad at age 21 and 22 it's probably not a good sign. Teoscar (871 innings) -8 DRS | -11 FRV | 33yo Arozarena (2597 innings) -9 DRS | -16 FRV | 30yo Austin Hays (1044 innings) -10 DRS | -3 FRV | 30yo Benintendi (1594 innings) -16 DRS | -19 FRV | 31yo Profar (1,904 innings) -17 DRS | -14 FRV | 32yo Bryan Reynolds (1016 innings) -5 DRS | -10 FRV | 30yo James Wood (1765 innings) -6 DRS | -11 FRV | 23yo Michael Conforto (1845 innings) -5 DRS | -12 FRV | 32yo

My line of thinking for guys like Hader and Burnes is that the Brewers traded away that last year, year and a half of team control. Whatever WAR they put up with HOU / ARI after that original control expired was acquired via free agency so no longer traded away at that point. For Davies and Grisham the Padres traded them again before their original team control expired, so I would just consider that as part of a new transaction between SDP and CHC (Davies) / NYY (Grisham). Somewhat topical, one of the prospects SDP included in the Davies deal with the Cubs back in 2020 was Owen Caissie. Time really is a flat circle I guess.

Fur sure, the Brewers received a comp pick as well in the deal and used it on Blake Burke who finished the season on a tear at AA. Looks like the Orioles used the Burnes comp pick on catcher Caden Bodine out of Coastal Carolina, who they have since flipped to TBR along with three other prospects and another comp pick for Shane Baz.

The Brewers have won those trades on production from the players involved, all the team control is just a cherry on top. Burnes (4.5 rWAR), Williams (-0.7 rWAR) and Hader (1.8 rWAR) combined for 5.6 WAR for their acquiring teams after being traded by the Brewers. Even if you don't want to count Contreras (15.0 WAR) and Payamps (2.2 rWAR) as part of the Hader trade we have still received 4.5 WAR from Ortiz, 2.6 WAR from Durbin, 0.7 rWAR for Gasser and 0.6 rWAR from Hall for 8.4 WAR to this point. All that remaining team control allows them to continue building on those couple two tree wins the Brewers are already ahead by, or if Ortiz/Durbin are pushed for their starting spots over the next couple years they can be traded for more players with full team control remaining that will have opportunities to keep the cycle going. The Brewers have been trading for team control to the tune of 160 some wins gained over the last decade since Stearns/Arnold arrived, it's kind of their methodology.

Williams potentially? Devin put up a 4.79 ERA | -0.7 rWAR | +0.08 WPA last year with the Yankees. Durbin notched 2.6 WAR and we still have another five or six years of team control remaining. Burnes (4.5 rWAR in his lone season with the Orioles) is at least kinda close with Ortiz (4.5 WAR) and Hall (0.6 rWAR) just barely ahead to this point (nevermind Blake Burke), but again they have eight combined years of team control remaining to keep building on that already positive margin. The Hader trade set back the organization so far that they've won the division all three seasons since the trade (by a combined 24 games) while winning the 2nd most games in MLB over the last three years.

Yeah, I certainly admire the effort behind BTV and its a fun resource to check, but they are probably using some kind of projection system that is way overweighting Ashby's numbers as a starter similar to Steamer (3.48 ERA projection for 2026) or even worse ZiPS (3.95 ERA projection for 2026). Never mind the last two years Ashby has a 2.03 ERA out of the pen that is the 5th lowest among 204 relievers with at least 70 IP. His 2.31 FIP is also 5th over that same time frame, his 2.65 SIERA (12th) and 2.88 xERA (20th) aren't quite as rosy but again are still a healthy distance below his projections.

Which recent big trade(s) turned out poorly for the Brewers?

In 2024 the Cubs were at +10.5 BSR (5th) overall on the bases and were +4.9 wSB (6th) on stolen bases specifically. In 2025 the Cubs were at +11.0 BSR (3rd) overall on the bases and were +8.4 wSB (3rd) on stolen bases specifically so looks like Quintin helped them pick up a few extra runs stealing bags. Do wonder how much of the Brewers decrease in running last year was injury or health related. Started off the year with +11.1 BSR (1st) and 80 SB / 17 CS (+5.4 wSB | 3rd) through May. From June onward it was at +4.0 BSR (5th) with 84 SB / 36 CS (-4.8 wSB | 30th) so they were still doing pretty good going first to third, second to home, et cetera but their stolen base efficiency completely bottomed out.

Quantifying defense is definitely way trickier than quantifying offense, would love to see what kind of internal metrics and evals the Brewers have, especially considering they've been increasingly excellent defensively for the last decade now since Stearns & Arnold transformed the whole run prevention philosophy... +198 DRS (7th) | +87 FRV (4th) | -0.16 ERA/FIP (4th) from 2016-22 +145 DRS (3rd) | +112 FRV (1st) | -0.45 ERA/FIP (1st) from 2023-25 A couple other important things to keep in mind is that DRS and FRV exist on completely different scales. For the 2025 season team DRS ranged from +89 at the top to -59 at the bottom, a spread of 148 runs. FRV is much more conservative ranging from +44 to -52 on a team level, a narrower spread of only 96 runs available to be saved or lost. Given the importance the Brewers place on defense. I'd imagine whatever system(s) they are using to measure defense come out closer in value to DRS. The other big one is that DRS comes closer to zero-ing out positionally, whereas FRV favors up the middle positions (especially CF) to the detriment of the corners. Here are the overall league-wide values for each position in 2025... Catcher (-2 DRS | -8 FRV), First Base (-10 DRS | -49 FRV), Second Base (-9 DRS | +18 FRV), Short Stop (+1 DRS | +57 FRV), Third Base (-9 DRS | -24 FRV), Left Field (+9 DRS | -134 FRV), Center Field (-6 DRS | +215 FRV), Right Field (-12 DRS | -110 FRV).

Out of 302 players from 2019-23 with at least 1,000 PA, Vogelbach's 33.6 Swing% was three percent lower than Juan Soto at 36.7%. Brett Gardner (37.7%) was the only other guy under 38% with Yasmani Grandal (38.2%) and Alex Bregman (38.3%) rounding out the top five infrequent swingers during that stretch.

Yeah, Chase Anderson vs Josh Hader is a great comparison for how hard it is to compare value between the quantity provided by mid to back end starters (more integral during the regular season) versus the lower quantity but all high stakes IP thrown by leverage relievers (which are then magnified in importance during the postseason). Hader threw 316 IP with a 58 ERA- | 63 FIP- for the Brewers. The old saying is that WAR undervalues relievers, so I would say for Josh a better representation of his value during that time would be his +14.22 Win Probability Added which credits him with a few extra wins over his 11.1 runs allowed WAR (which credits him with another couple wins over his 9.4 FIP based WAR). Anderson was durable (at least 25 starts all four years) but didn't work deep (topped out at 158 IP). His peripherals (93 K+ | 95 BB+ | 123 HR+ for a 111 FIP-) were downright ugly so he was only worth 5.0 FIP based WAR over his 590 IP with the Brewers. This probably lines up with most peoples memory of Anderson as an average at best kind of pitcher. But Chase was also one of the OG test cases for the Brewers FIP beating magic. They rode his fly ball heavy arsenal for a 126 FB+ (7th of 115 pitchers min. 400 IP from 2016-19) that helped him limit hits with a 95 AVG+ (34th) and strand runners with a 107 LOB+ (7th). Put it altogether and his 3.83 ERA (90 ERA-) was waaay down below his 4.70 FIP so that shook out to 10.5 runs allowed WAR for Chase over those four years, or an extra 5.5 wins over what his peripherals would imply. He wasn't a trade acquisition (picked up off waivers) but Junior Guerra was kinda the same story, just not quite as consistent as Anderson was... Guerra 2016-19 (416 IP) 97 K+ | 117 BB+ | 106 HR+ (unimpressive peripherals) 111 FB+ | 92 AVG+ | 104 LOB+ (lotsa fly balls / limit hits / strand runners) 89 ERA- | 107 FIP- 3.78 ERA | 4.53 FIP (beat that FIP) 6.3 rWAR | 3.3 fWAR (collect those extra wins)