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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Source for your info please? I'm seeing about 40 million for the Twins... https://www.twincities.com/2016/02/12/local-tv-deal-doesnt-hamper-twins-payroll-team-president-says/ ...versus about 21 million for the Brewers... https://www.mlb.com/news/royals-close-to-new-tv-deal-with-fox-sports-kc Or do you think those figures are basically the same? 20 million bucks is not a ton of money in a billion dollar sport but if you are saying the extra 750k in attendance doesn't close that gap so be it. Bottom line is they could have done that deal and unless Donaldson hates Milwaukee they chose not to. It's not because they can't afford it. Twenty million isn't much compared to the billions generated by the sport as a whole, no, but it was around 14% of the league average payroll in 2019. The Brewers may well have made that money (or even more) back with their extra attendance & I agree that they likely could afford to match or exceed those terms based on our limited knowledge of their financials. That they chose not to seems to indicate they didn't believe doing so was in their best interest...time will ultimately tell if it was or was not.
  2. sveumrules
    He's played 155 games or more in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2019. His age is a legitimate concern but his injury history is way overblown for whatever reason. From 2013-16, at ages 27-30, he was one of the more durable players in baseball. From 2017-19, at ages 31-33, he was less so. Playing 113, 52 & 155. I would guess his games played totals from 34-37 will more resemble his last three seasons than the four before that, though the DH should help mitigate things somewhat. If the Twins get 500 games & 10 WAR out of the deal, I think they'll be happy. Anything more than that is gravy.
  3. sveumrules
    Source for your info please? I'm seeing about 40 million for the Twins... https://www.twincities.com/2016/02/12/local-tv-deal-doesnt-hamper-twins-payroll-team-president-says/ ...versus about 21 million for the Brewers... https://www.mlb.com/news/royals-close-to-new-tv-deal-with-fox-sports-kc Or do you think those figures are basically the same?
  4. sveumrules
    Well, Wisconsin has a higher population than Minnesota, so... My point was pretty much simply that the Brewers aren't at an economic disadvantage compared to the Twins based on their metro area sizes. TV market is 1.697 million households for MPLS vs 837,000 for MKE, so they've got us beat there too. https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/nba-market-size-nfl-mlb-nhl-nielsen-ratings/
  5. sveumrules
    Arraez is a pretty intriguing player, but it looks like he's slated to be the Twins starting 2B at this point. Don't think they'd be very motivated to move him.
  6. sveumrules
    Sad...or, smart. No way to really know for sure until 2023.
  7. sveumrules
    Minneapolis metro is 3.6 million. Milwaukee Metro is 1.6 million. TV market is 1.697 million for MPLS vs 837,000 for MKE, so they got us beat there too. https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/nba-market-size-nfl-mlb-nhl-nielsen-ratings/ Quick googling also looks like the Twins owner has a net worth that is a couple two tree billion higher than Mark A, for whatever that is or isn't worth.
  8. sveumrules
    Doesn't make any sense to tank again until 2021, since they don't have their picks back until 2022. I'd imagine the Astros have a plan similar to the one that former Cleveland Indians catcher Jake Taylor had when he found out the team's owner was trying to sabotage the team so she could move it to Miami..."Win the whole (ahem) thing."
  9. sveumrules
    I personally don't dream about giving up serious value to take on a seven year, two hundred thirty four million dollar commitment. A similar package to what's been floated for STL is probably something like Houser, Peralta, Turang & Ashby.
  10. sveumrules
    Excellent take, I especially like your point that I bolded. Right. Neither of Hinch or Luhnow were protected under a collectively bargained agreement like the players are, so they were magnitudes easier to punish. From what I understand, the 2017 memo that Manfred sent out also specifically stated that general & field managers would be held accountable for subsequent violations.
  11. sveumrules
    From 2017-19 Hader ranked 1st in rWAR, 2nd in fWAR & 2nd in Win Probability Added among all relievers. Felipe Vazquez beat him in fWAR & WPA, but I don't think he'll be pitching in MLB next year or any time soon. Hader also currently has the highest 2020 WAR projection among relievers... https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=5,a Who do you think is better?
  12. sveumrules
    Glad MLB laid down the law here. Stark contrast to how the NFL has handled the multiple Patriots instances of shady happenings over the years.
  13. sveumrules
    2019 Position Player WAR: 24.2 2020 ZIPS projected WAR: 21.4 2019 Starting Pitcher WAR: 8.7 2020 ZIPS projected WAR: 10.4 2019 Relief Pitcher WAR: 4.1 2020 ZIPS projected WAR: 6.3 It should also be noted I'm pretty sure that the Brewers have beat their ZIPS projected win total each of the last four seasons.
  14. sveumrules
    Brewers C 2019: 118 wRC+ Narvaez 2017-19: 115 wRC+ Manny 2017-19: 90 wRC+ Brewers 1B 2019: 107 wRC+ Smoak 2017-19: 120 wRC+ Braun 2017-19: 111 wRC+ Brewers 2B 2019: 124 wRC+ Keston 2017-19: 139 wRC+ (348 MLB PAs) 155 wRC+ (AAA) 116 wRC+ (AA) Brewers SS 2019: 56 wRC+ Urias 2017-19: 79 wRC+ (302 MLB PAs) 131 wRC+ (AAA) 124 wRC+ (AA) Arcia 2017-19: 69 wRC+ Brewers 3B 2019: 73 wRC+ Gyorko 2017-19: 105 wRC+ Sogard 2017-19: 99 wRC+ Brewers LF 2019: 125 wRC+ Avisail 2017-19: 117 wRC+ Braun 2017-19: 111 wRC+ Brewers CF 2019: 80 wRC+ Cain 2017-19: 107 wRC+ Gamel 2017-19: 97 wRC+ Brewers RF 2019: 151 wRC+ Yelich 2017-19: 151 wRC+
  15. sveumrules
    Papelbon pre-arby posted... 160 IP | 1.62 ERA (291 ERA+) | 72 SV | 193 K (192 K%+) Compared to Hader pre-arby... 204 IP | 2.42 ERA (178 ERA+) | 49 SV | 349 K (197 K%+) Josh has him beat on innings & raw K totals, though the difference isn't nearly as stark once you adjust for era with about a 16.8% league average K rate from 2005-07 compared to 22.3% for the last three years. Obviously Papelbon has a pretty significant edge in both saves & ERA, which I imagine are the first two categories an arbitration panel considers. Here's how they stack up by more advanced measures the panel probably won't consider much... Jon: 8.2 rWAR | 5.3 fWAR | 9.57 WPA Josh: 7.2 rWAR | 5.9 fWAR | 7.26 WPA
  16. sveumrules
    Couple hiccups (wasted timeout, blown up run play) on that drive but can't fault the end result.
  17. sveumrules
    From 2016-18 Claudio posted a 3.19 ERA in 197 IP against MLB batters with a 1.73 BB/9 (7th lowest), 0.41 HR/9 (8th lowest) & 63.7% ground ball rate (5th highest). He was a top 20-30 reliever by all of fWAR, rWAR & Win Probability Added. As nice as QTC's 2018 was he went from 12.8 K/9 vs 3.8 BB/9 in AA to 7.9 K/9 vs 4.5 BB/9 in AAA. Guys with that type of performance dip following a promotion aren't typically promoted again, especially to a contending MLB club.
  18. sveumrules
    Gwynn hit 338/388/439 (86 ISO+) with a 26 K%+ Boggs hit 328/415/443 (81 ISO+) with a 47 K%+ Carew hit 328/393/429 (82 ISO+) with a 75 K%+ They all have a career wRC+ of 132. Players with those profiles don't really exist anymore. There were zero players last year with a wRC+ over 130 & a K%+ below 26 (Gwynn). There were two players last year with a wRC+ over 130 & a K%+ below 47 (Boggs). They were Michael Brantley & Yuli Gurriel, though their ISO+ marks were 103 & 130 so they both slugged considerably more than Boggs. There were eight more players with a wRC+ over 130 & a K%+ below 75 (Carew). The lowest ISO+ among those 8 players was DJ LeMahieu at 103, still 21% higher than Carew's 82 mark.
  19. sveumrules
    Quoting Arenado's career road slash is somewhat misleading. From his first season in 2013 thru last year, his seasonal road OPS have been... .619, .713, .835, .832, .886, .772 & .866 The career numbers are weighted down heavily by his first two seasons. Over the last 5 years he is at 269/333/506 (117 wRC+) on the road. Over the last 3 seasons it is 270/342/499 (116 wRC+) on the road. Even if his wRC+ drops from the 125-130 range down to 110-115, with his defense that is still a 4 WAR player. The problem is that you're paying 70 million for two years of that production then Arenado can opt out if he performs well enough to think he can beat the 5/164 left on his deal. If he falls off to the point he doesn't think he can beat that 5/164 now the Cards are stuck with a deal that's over-market for the next half decade.
  20. sveumrules
    Last year we hit the 3rd most HRs in the NL (250), but were only 9th in runs scored (769). I would guess we end up lower in HR, but wouldn't be surprised at all if we scored more runs. Assuming no more moves are made (I'm not convinced), the ball is as juicy as last year & average health, my back of the envelope median HR ranges for the 13 position players would probably be something like... Omar (12-25) Manny (5-10) Smoak (20-30) Braun (15-25) Keston (25-35) Urias (10-25) Sogard (5-15) Gyorko (5-15) Arcia (5-15) Avisail (15-25) Lorenzo (10-15) Yelich (35-50) Gamel (5-10) Putting it all together I'd guess the 2020 Brewers will hit 222 home runs.
  21. sveumrules
    Teams (especially the Rays) don't care if a player they are acquiring is one year removed from being an All Star, they care about their salary & team control relative to their projected future performance weighted against the scarcity of available players at the same position. Remeber Bryan LaHair, the Cubs first baseman who was an All Star in 2012 then never played in MLB again? That's how much the league values nondescript 1B, even "All Star" ones. The Rays valued Jesus so highly they waived him. I'd have to say a waived 1B getting traded for a waived P looks like pretty equal value, the big swing & miss would be trying to portray it otherwise.
  22. sveumrules
    Teams (especially the Rays) don't care if a player they are acquiring is one year removed from being an All Star, they care about their salary & team control relative to their projected future performance weighted against the scarcity of available players at the same position. Remeber Bryan LaHair, the Cubs first baseman who was an All Star in 2012 then never played in MLB again? That's how much the league values nondescript 1B, even "All Star" ones. The Rays valued Jesus so highly they waived him. I'd have to say a waived 1B getting traded for a waived P looks like pretty equal value, the big swing & miss would be trying to portray it otherwise.
  23. sveumrules
    Yes, they usually do. I believe the deadline for doing so has now passed though so Josh & the Brewers will be going to a hearing.
  24. sveumrules
    Yes, they usually do. I believe the deadline for doing so has now passed though so Josh & the Brewers will be going to a hearing.
  25. sveumrules
    The only way its a disaster is if Gyorko collides with Yelich. Otherwise it is two million dollars for one year. If he sucks, he's gone with no future hindrance.
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