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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Smith averaged over three innings per appearance and had eleven outings between four and six IP last year. Only six times did he throw one inning or less. Even coming off injury, his 154 IP were 14th among all Brewers farmhands the last two years. He’s been gradually building up for two years now post-TJ, this isn’t somebody whose been groomed as a one inning reliever.
  2. sveumrules
    Jackson played at a 1 WAR per 100 PAs pace over the last four months. Brewers leadoff hitters got 755 PAs last year. So essentially would just need to hit leadoff all year and see a slight uptick in his wRC+ or defense/base running numbers to get there.
  3. sveumrules
    This might be true if Smith were going to a regular old run of the mill bad team, but he’s not. Last year’s White Sox bullpen put up -11.22 Win Probability Added, the Nationals had the 2nd worst bullpen in 2024 at -2.68 WPA. There have been 30 teams in MLB since 1998, so that’s 780 team bullpen full seasons. Only the 1999 Royals (-10.94 WPA) and 2021 Nats (-9.89 WPA) gave the White Sox a run for their money. White Sox rotation managed 7.2 rWAR (24th) last year, but 6.7 of that came from Crochet and Fedde who are gone. Venable said they are considering Smith as a potential rotation option… “I think we’ll continue to build him up as a starter, knowing he can be a versatile piece for us,” Venable said. “I think we owe it to him, and his ability, to stretch him out and look at him as a starter here.”
  4. sveumrules
    Looks like Craig Counsell got Dave Roberts an extra 100K annually on his new deal.
  5. sveumrules
    Yes, one of the best pitchers in the minor leagues. Among 441 pitchers with at least 150 IP over the last two years… 2.86 xFIP (2nd) | 24.3 K-BB% (3rd) | 32.4 K% (4th) | 1.01 WHIP (5th) | 3.03 FIP (5th) | 2.63 ERA (7th) | .193 AVG (12th) If Shane put up those numbers as a highly drafted player at age appropriate levels he’d be a top prospect in all of baseball, but since he did it as an older undrafted FA he’ll have to settle for #1 pick in the R5 as far as accolades go. Of course there were mitigating factors as to why Erceg only threw 147 innings after high school and before MLB, just like there have been mitigating factors for Smith doing the same. The reason Lucas didn’t get popped in the R5 is because his minor league results were nowhere near as impressive… 4.52 xFIP | 8.5 K-BB% | 23.1 K% | 1.59 WHIP | 5.01 FIP | 5.07 ERA | .245 AVG
  6. sveumrules
    Yeah, average age for Carolina League pitchers was 21.6 and it was 23.1 for the Midwest League so while most of his peers were trying to figure out A/A+ Carlos was already putting up a better than average season as the youngest regular SP in the hitter friendly International League.
  7. sveumrules
    I’d say the big question is if he can stay healthy and effective for a full MLB season as a reliever since he came up short of that last year. If he can’t make it through a full season relief workload, odds are he wouldn’t hold up as a starter either.
  8. sveumrules
    No one pitched much in 2020 on account of the pandemic, then Shane lost most of the 2021-22 seasons to TJ. Since then he’s been healthy and one of the best pitchers in the minors for the last two years. Going back to Erceg, he threw a grand total of 147 innings spaced out over ten calendar years after high school and before making it to MLB.
  9. sveumrules
    Yeah, Smith has been one of the best pitchers in all of the minor leagues the last two years. Among 441 pitchers with at least 150 IP over that stretch he ranks… 2.86 xFIP (2nd) | 24.3 K-BB% (3rd) | 32.4 K% (4th) | 1.01 WHIP (5th) | 3.03 FIP (5th) | 2.63 ERA (7th) | .193 AVG (12th) I can’t help but wonder if there wasn’t some element of “do right by the player” going on here, similar to when they dealt Erceg to Oakland. Even if the Brewers added Smith to the 40 Man, he still would have had a long road to earning consistent time on the 26 Man with the amount of bullpen depth the Brewers have. Leaving him unprotected for the R5 gives him an immediate path to a long leash earning service time & MLB salary on the 26 Man, which as an undrafted free agent with a lengthy injury history is pretty a big deal.
  10. sveumrules
    “After a strong MLB debut in 2024, Black played only seven games before being sent down.” Probably because he was hitting 227/261/318 after those seven games. ”Despite continued success in the minors” Black hit for a combined 145 wRC+ at AA/AAA in 2023, but fell off significantly to a 114 wRC+ in AAA last year. ”Black was repeatedly sent back down to make room for other players, like Garrett Mitchell.” Probably because Mitchell is a GG calibre CF who has hit for a 123 wRC+ over 365 career MLB PAs, while Black isn’t either of those things.
  11. sveumrules
    I personally had him #20 in the last vote we did, but the main factors holding him back for those that don’t have him that high would be… 1) depth of the system. last balloting there were 15 more or less consensus guys who showed up on at least 24 of the 27 ballots and KC Hunt was on 21 of the 27 at #16. 2) he’s been old for his level every step of the way and is at the bottom of the defensive spectrum as a 1B prospect. 3) outside of his last 200 PAs of 2024 his production has always been more good than OMG WHA HAPPEND so there’s still some question if it was just a hot streak to end the year or if Ernesto figured something out that unlocked a new talent level
  12. sveumrules
    Here's my best guess how they might divvy up weekly starts in that arrangement. Would need to give everyone a day a week at DH too... 1B - Adams (3) Wilken (3) 2B - Areinamo (3) EBJ (3) SS - Pratt (5) EBJ (1) 3B - Wilken (2) Adams (2) Areinamo (2) Ideally Wilken/Adams would get more time at 3B and EBJ would get more at SS, but not sure there's any way to really make it work unless they're only gonna play EBJ like two times a week on the dirt or start trying him on the OF grass a couple times a week.
  13. sveumrules
    Bryant was a signing out of Indy Ball last summer. Obviously was old for his leagues but had a nice couple months with a 1.82 ERA and 33 K over 24 IP split between Carolina/Wisco.
  14. sveumrules
    Most recent YouTube footage I could find is a couple two tree years old, but looked to have a pretty whippy arm action and interesting release angle... Also came across this "Catching Up With" video produced by Whitman Athletics that talks a little about the signing process and some of the mechanical things that helped him to cut down on the walks...
  15. sveumrules
    Yeah, looks like an undrafted singing from last year. Nice strikeout numbers with 144 K over 116 IP at Whitman College in Walla Walla, Washington. Reigned in the control big time his junior year - 27 BB in 24 IP as a Freshman, 14 BB in 17 IP as a Sophmore, then down to 35 BB in 75 IP as a Junior. Had a dominant showing in the Alaskan Summer League too posting a 1.41 ERA over 32 IP with 37 K, 7 BB and only 16 hits allowed.
  16. sveumrules
    During the Bucks 8 W - 1 L run over the last nine games their 106.2 dRTG is 1st in the league. Offense (114.4 oRTG | 17th) and rebounding (50.3 REB% | 15th) have been more middle of the pack over that same time frame, but have to imagine getting Bobby back should give them a boost in both areas heading into the playoffs. Overall their +8.2 netRTG is 7th during the stretch with upcoming opponents CLE (+16.9 | 1st), GSW (+12.3 | 2nd), OKC (+8.7 | 4th), IND (+8.7 | 5th), and LAL (+6.8 | 9th) all playing at similar or better paces of late themselves.
  17. sveumrules
    Uribe, Ashby, Hall, Woodruff, Misio, Yoho, Henderson, Gasser. Those are eight talented pitchers that combined for about one win last year. I have a feeling they’ll combine for more than that this year. For decades at a time we didn’t have eight pitchers that good on the entire staff, now they are essentially high upside depth pieces. Wild times.
  18. sveumrules
    Will be interesting to see how the Bucks handle the seven game mini gauntlet they have coming up with CLE, atIND, LAL, IND, OKC, atGSW, atLAL between March 9th and 20th.
  19. sveumrules
    Looks like DL Hall to the 60 Day is the corresponding move to open a 40 Man spot for Quintana,
  20. sveumrules
    Yeah, Ernesto and Adamczewski are the only two that aren't on there that I'd try to make sure got on my Top 30, but other than Collins not sure who I'd take off either.
  21. sveumrules
    Three SP heading into FA after 2025, Freddy has an $8M team option for 2026.
  22. sveumrules
    Agree that Carlos Rodriguez hasn't done much lately to inspire a ton of confidence, but one thing to keep in mind is that he is still pretty young. Last year only him and Mick Abel threw 100 IP or more in AAA during their age 22 season or younger, and Carlos's ERA was almost full two runs lower even though Abel has gotten multiple Top 100 placements over the years.
  23. sveumrules
    He fell off pretty hard last year. 72 ERA- | 76 FIP- | 93 xFIP- in 2022. 85 ERA- | 81 FIP- | 102 xFIP- in 2023. 95 ERA- | 113 FIP- | 109 xFIP- in 2024. 2022 and 2023 were also aided by really good/lucky home run suppression (42 HR9+), but that caught up with him big time last year with a more appropriate 103 HR9+. At the same time his last six regular season starts were ridiculous last year with 36 IP of 19 ERA- | 62 FIP- | 87 xFIP- and he followed that up with 0 ER over 11 IP in his first two postseason starts before the Dodgers finally got to him in the NLCS so hopefully there are another 170 or so IP of 95 ERA- left in the tank, as that shook out to 3.0 rWAR for Jose last year.
  24. sveumrules
    Obligatory "Quintana? That creep can roll, man" Big Lebowski reference.
  25. sveumrules
    Nothing too special, but should hopefully eat innings, fit right in to the Brewers FIP beating ways and push Ashby to the bullpen... Quintana 2024 95 ERA- | 113 FIP- Brewers 2024 88 ERA- | 102 FIP-
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