sveumrules

Mitch White’s late season run continues as he gave up Jordan Westburg double and Ramon Urias RBI single to open the game but nothing thereafter for a nice 7 IP | 1 ER | 5 H | 1 BB | 8 K line. Nashville picked up three runs in the fourth with a Wes Clarke walk followed by a quartet of singles from Francisco Mejia, Owen Miller, Noah Campbell & Freddy Zamora, then a sac fly from Carlos Rodriguez the outfielder. Sounds then scored two more in the seventh after Brewer Hicklen walked and Wes Clarke went 405 feet deep.

Out of 243 pitchers in the International League with at least 40 IP, Herget came in at… 2.46 FIP (2nd) | 2.27 ERA (8th) | 3.23 xFIP (3rd) | 5.36 K to BB ratio (4th) | 32.4 K% (15th) | 6.0 BB% (13th) | 0.38 HR9 (6th) | 0.94 WHIP (2nd) Have to imagine in an organization with a less stacked bullpen he would’ve gotten more of an MLB look than the 8.2 low leverage IP over two brief call ups in May/June he’s gotten so far with the Brewers this year. Believe he is mostly four seam / cutter with the change up as the out pitch.

Yup. Expand to 32 equals two leagues with four divisions of four teams each. Four division winners get in and they'll probably bump it to three Wild Cards so only the #1 seed gets the bye. Essentially the NFL postseason format.

Not sure of an easy way to track that info down without going through individual game logs. Kind of a crude measure, but through June 30 the Brewers had 405 runs scored and 86 home runs, 4.71 R/HR. Since July 1st it’s 331 runs scored and 85 home runs, 3.89 R/HR. Based on that it would appear your impression is correct & they have become more HR reliant recently compared to earlier in the year. For some context here are the full season ratios of the NL contenders… MIL (4.30 R/HR) 736 R / 171 HR ARI (4.24 R/HR) 840 R / 198 HR SDP (4.03 R/HR) 726 R / 180 HR PHI (3.99 R/HR) 739 R / 185 HR NYM (3.74 R/HR) 740 R / 198 HR LAD (3.63 R/HR) 788 R / 217 HR ATL (3.36 R/HR) 668 R / 199 HR With that context the Brewers performance since July 1st (3.89 R/HR) would be closer to the middle of the pack.

I have no control over the results of Brewers games, so I will accept and be ok with whatever happens. What recourse exists for someone who would not be ok with it?

Adams has run low BABIPs (.292 and .280) at both his A ball stops the last two years. Pretty sure he has a very uppercut swing that results in a lot of easy flyball outs, so it might be something sticky in his profile. Luke's 18.7 BB% was a big part of his OBP, but he also got beaned 40 times in the regular season so that element is likely to come down pretty drastically as he moves up the ladder.

Not a Twins fan personally, but if I were I probably wouldn't have had much faith in my team whose record is pretty much entirely propped up by a 12 W - 1 L record against the worst team ever.

I consider myself more of a rapscallion.

Here is a little check-your-own work that Ben Clemens did back in September of 2021 on the FG Playoff Odds... How Well Do Our Playoff Odds Work?

My guess would be... Ca: Haase 1B: Bauers 2B: Collins 3B: Monasterio SS: Ortiz LF: Frelick CF: Perkins RF: Mitchell DH: El Gary

Checking the Brewers game logs on BRef it looks like they are 23 W - 27 L when they don't HR. If I counted right the other NL contenders are at... SDP (20 W - 29 L) NYM (16 W - 28 L) PHI (16 W - 29 L) LAD (15 W - 32 L) ATL (16 W - 35 L) ARI (14 W- 34 L)

I'd say what we've seen from Mitchell so far this year (about a 5 WAR/600 PAs pace) is pretty close to his realistic upside if he can stay healthy for an extended stretch. 2022-23 (141 PAs) 9.2 BB% | 38.3 K% 278/343/452 (119 wRC+) .441 BABIP | .175 ISO 2024 (194 PAs) 11.9 BB% | 30.9 K% 260/352/467 (129 wRC+) .365 BABIP | .207 ISO Walk rate and ISO both up, K rate and BABIP still high but at more work-with-able levels.

Six pitchers in the Brewers system with at least 30 IP and an xFIP under 3.00 this year are... Yoho (1.90), KC Hunt (2.32), Sam Gardner (2.44), Yorman Galindez (2.75), Shane Smith (2.89) and Chase Costello (2.92).

Awesome breakdown on how the Brewers completely flipped the script on Frankie’s season. Frankie Reds 85 K%+ | 120 HR9+ | 104 AVG+ | 115 ERA- | 114 FIP- Frankie Brewers 128 K%+ | 95 HR9+ | 84 AVG+ | 86 ERA- | 86 FIP- I believe I typed something along the lines of “Dear Chris Hook, Good Luck” in the initial trade thread, but it turns out minimal luck was required on account of good design.

For the first four months it was CLE (61) and ATL (71) on ERA- and CLE (+11.02) on WPA. Since August 1st its DET (65) and LAA (68) on ERA- and PHI (+4.27) on WPA. CLE bullpen has come down a little to "only" a 77 ERA- (6th) and +3.63 WPA (4th) since August 1st.

Was looking at Colin Rea’s game log after last night’s first career save and obviously every player’s performance goes through peaks and valleys, but hopefully last night is the first step on an upswing going into the playoffs… 0331 to 0421 (21.2 IP) 2.08 ERA | 4.05 FIP 0426 to 0519 (27.0 IP) 5.67 ERA | 5.25 FIP 0525 to 0616 (28.0 IP) 1.93 ERA | 4.06 FIP 0621 to 0709 (22.2 IP) 5.56 ERA | 5.33 FIP 0714 to 0806 (23.0 IP) 1.57 ERA | 2.48 FIP 0813 to 0911 (31.2 IP) 7.39 ERA | 6.83 FIP If the pattern holds he should be in line for another twenty some innings of good Rea after last night’s 2.2 IP of 0.00 ERA | 2.42 FIP.

Yeah, Brewers 31 W - 15 L record against the AL is more or less tied with ATL (29 W- 14 L) for the best in MLB at the moment. Top four teams for inter-league record and eight of the top ten are NL clubs. The two AL teams in the Top Ten - SEA and TBR - are unlikely to make the playoffs.

I think it was more of a depth issue. Tyler Black and Wes Clarke played the lions's share of 1B (831 innings) in Nashville which left 396 innings to be split up among Owen Miller, Patrick Dorrian and Noah Campbell. Especially with Clarke catching zero innings this year and Black not seeing time at other spots until closer to the deadline its just too hard to have three more or less first base only guys. Martinez also hasn't been this version of Martinez all year long. Thru June 30th he was at 256 PAs of 236/305/397 (108 wRC+) with a 6.6 BB% and 19.1 K%. Since July 1st its 201 PAs of 349/443/558 (195 wRC+) with an 11.4 BB% and 13.9 K%.

First tiebreaker after head to head is inter-division record. Phillies are currently 27 W - 18 L vs the NLE and Brewers are 30 W - 19 L vs the NLC to this point. If that ends up tied too it would go to intra-division records. Phillies are currently 37 W - 22 L vs the rest of the NL while the Brewers come in at 26 W - 29 L.

Thru July 31st, the Brewers rotation was at 513.2 IP (30th) | 100 ERA- (13th) | 7.1 rWAR (16th). Since trading for Montas at the deadline its 228.2 IP (8th) | 92 ERA- (8th) | 4.0 rWAR (9th). The early season bullpen that put up 445.2 IP (1st) | 80 ERA- (3rd) | +8.82 WPA (2nd) thru July 31st and was never going to be able to hold up under such a heavy workload has posted 151 IP (18th) | 69 ERA- (3rd) | +4.24 WPA (2nd) since August 1st.

Among 1,382 minor league pitchers across all levels with at least 50 IP, Craig Yoho ranks 1st with a 1.34 FIP. Among 304 minor league pitchers across all levels with at least 100 IP, KC Hunt ranks 1st with 2.29 FIP.

BRef has Pee Wee with a .377 career SLG. .269 of that is his batting average though, which leaves him with an isolated slugging of .108. JJ does have a .408 career SLG with an average of .256 underneath leaving an isolated slugging of .152.

Wow, Nick Kahle much in the clutch with a two out two RBI double to put the Shuckers back on top 5 to 4 bottom seven. & Felix Valerio follows up with a two run BOMB.

Checking the standings post-trade deadline there are seven teams bunched together at the top. Here's a quick look at how they each got there... ARI (24 W - 14 L) 134 wRC+ (1st) | 6.45 R/G (1st) +3.1 BsR (6th) | +0.6 FLD (12th) SP: 1.2 rWAR (24th) | RP: +0.72 WPA (20th) (Best Offense, Worst Pitching) LAD (24 W - 14 L) 115 wRC+ (4th) | 5.21 R/G (3rd) +5.5 BsR (2nd) | +0.6 FLD (12th) SP: 1.6 rWAR (22nd) | RP: +2.47 WPA (7th) (Rotation Only Weakness) SDP (24 W - 14 L) 117 wRC+ (2nd) | 5.08 R/G (4th) +4.2 BsR (5th) | -3.6 FLD (22nd) SP: 2.0 rWAR (19th) | RP: +1.10 WPA (14th) (Top End Offense, Middling Pitching, Bad Defense) CHI (23 W - 14 L) 116 wRC+ (3rd) | 5.81 R/G (2nd) +4.5 BsR (4th) | +6.6 FLD (7th) SP: 3.4 rWAR (12th) | RP: +1.16 WPA (12th) (Top End Position Players, Above Average Pitching) DET (24 W - 15 L) 100 wRC+ (16th) | 4.36 R/G (17th) +2.2 BsR (13th) | +7.2 FLD (6th) SP: 3.9 rWAR (9th) | RP: +2.77 WPA (4th) (Middling Offense, Above Average Rotation, Top End Bullpen / Defense) NYM (24 W - 15 L) 105 wRC+ (10th) | 4.54 R/G (8th) -2.3 BsR (23rd) | +1.3 FLD (10th) SP: 5.0 rWAR (4th) | RP: +1.01 WPA (16th) (Top End Rotation, Top Ten Offense, Middling Bullpen) MIL (24 W- 15 L) 104 wRC+ (11th) | 4.92 R/G (5th) +2.9 BsR (9th) | +8.1 FLD (3rd) SP: 4.2 rWAR (8th) | RP: +4.84 WPA (1st) (Most Complete Team Since The Deadline ??)

Brewers have scored 5 or 6 runs in 32 of their 147 games so far this year, so about a 21.77% chance.