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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Brewers are 12 W - 6 L in their eighteen previous games homering twice this year. They are 13 W - 0 L when homering three or more times.
  2. sveumrules
    In addition to the aforementioned Lara bomb, Jadher Areinamo notched a trio of singles and Jheremy Vargas filled up the box with a single, double, stolen bag and two RBI. Tyler Bryant made it five for five on scoreless appearances since joining Wisco adding two more strikeouts to his ledger in a perfect ninth inning. He has only been credited with earned runs in one of his 14 appearances since joining the Brewers org out of the Independent ranks.
  3. sveumrules
    Brewers are 7 W - 0 L following a three game losing streak so far this year. Would be pretty awesome to keep that streak alive tonight. Also thought it was interesting that last night was only their 7th blowout loss (5+ run deficit) according to BRef, fewest in the league by a decent margin... CLE (11) KCR (12) SEA (12) ATL (13) LAD (14) BAL (14) MIN (14) PHI (15) SDP (15) NYY (16) NYM (17) HOU (18)
  4. sveumrules
    Taylor Clarke surrendered two runs bottom one, but Patrick Dorrian got them both back with a two run blast top of two to even to the score at 2 to 2.
  5. sveumrules
    Mentions two TJs in this article when he committed to Arkansas as a transfer before signing. This one mentions two as well with a little more detail...Yoho had a pretty clean bill of health in high school. Then his first Tommy John surgery coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic shutdown, making for a difficult rehabilitation. “Then I had poor ramp-ups for pitching while also (playing a position),” says Yoho.
  6. sveumrules
    Yoho has already had two TJs and is a recent convert to full time pitching. With only 40 IP last year and 45 so far this year it would take him two or three years minimum to build up the innings needed to be a starter.
  7. sveumrules
    Guessing Hall is back within 20 days to not burn his final option year?
  8. sveumrules
    Adding to the insanity somewhat - over their first 58 games they had a ripe for regression 3.88 ERA | 4.20 FIP (-0.32 gap), in the 57 games since they have said hold my beer and rattled off a 3.61 ERA | 4.43 FIP (-0.82 gap).
  9. sveumrules
    For whatever it is or isn't worth, FanGraphs has the pre-game odds at 53.6% Brewers versus 46.4% for the Dodgers. Looks like today's biggest mismatch according to them is Diamondbacks (70.2%) with Brandon Pfaadt starting versus the Rockies (29.8%) with some kid named Bradley Blalock starting.
  10. sveumrules
    I thought there was no way they wouldn't regress from an MLB best -0.48 ERA/FIP gap last year, but here they are at -0.60 so far this year. The bullpen's +11.73 WPA last year was a Top Five mark this Millennium, no way they can do that again, right? Especially missing Devin for most of the season. This year they are at +9.51 WPA with 45 games still to be played. At this point I'm just kicking back and enjoying.
  11. sveumrules
    This is the perfect example of how fickle first basemen are and why smart teams like the Brewers typically don’t invest too much in the position. Everybody saw the obvious fit between Hoskins and the Brewers in the offseason, the only question was would the Brewers go far enough financially to bring him into the fold. They did and their was much rejoicing. If they had just said “nah, we’re good with keeping Carlos Santana instead” there would have been uproar about cheap ownership not even trying. So of course Santana is at a 113 wRC+ and 2.2 WAR for $5.25M.
  12. sveumrules
    BRef says 100 different lineups, doesn’t look like today is a repeat from what I can tell so might be 101 now. Turang / Contreras / Yelich / Adames / Bauers / Ortiz / Frelick / Chourio / Perkins has been the most used lineup at five games.
  13. sveumrules
    Dansby got 7/177 so I’m guessing Willy and camp will be shooting for 8/200. Kind of funny thing is the big spending contender (outside of oft-rumored LAD) most in need of a SS is probably ATL who have gotten a 70 wRC+ (28th) and 0.5 WAR (26th) out of SS (mostly Arcia) this year. Would think if they didn’t want to pony up for Dansby that they probably won’t want to spend similar money for Adames though. Other team that could get in on the action is the Padres with Kim also hitting the market opening up SS.
  14. sveumrules
    Yeah, looks like their low point was July 3rd at 39 W - 48 L and thirteen games out of first. Since then they’ve gone 20 W - 12 L to get back on the doorstep of .500. Somewhat interestingly, the top five teams in MLB over that stretch have all been the surging NL Wild Card hopefuls - ARI (23-9), CHC (20-12), SDP (19-9), SFG (19-13), NYM (19-14).
  15. sveumrules
    Kinda crazy how close they’ve gotten. Only a half game back of the Dodgers for #2, depending how today’s games go we could be defending that spot instead of chasing it when the Dodgers roll in tomorrow. Only 1.5 back from the Phillies now for the top seed too. Last time the Brewers were seventeen over .500 on July 3rd they were 5.5 games back of PHI. Since then the Phillies 12 W - 19 L is the worst record by an actual MLB team.
  16. sveumrules
    Eighteen games over .500 and an eight game division lead are both season highs. A win today would give the Brewers their first six game winning streak of the year.
  17. sveumrules
    Some impressive starting pitching performances tonight… DSL-1 Lukas Gonzalez 4.2 IP | 0 ER | 1 H | 3 BB | 3 K CAR Bryan Rivera 6.0 IP | 0 ER | 2 H | 1 BB | 9 K BIL KC Hunt 5.1 IP | 1 ER | 3 H | 0 BB | 8 K NAS Carlos Rodriguez 6.1 IP | 0 ER | 3 H | 2 BB | 5 K Not a start, but Christopher Peralta went 3.0 IP | 0 ER | 3 H | 1 BB | 1 K in relief to pick up the win for DSL-2.
  18. sveumrules
    From 2016-22 Brewers pitchers were pretty good at beating their peripherals with a cumulative 3.94 ERA | 4.10 FIP. Their -0.16 gap was 4th best in MLB over that stretch and shook out to 102.8 fWAR (8th) and 116.2 rWAR (7th). The defense chipping in +182 DRS (6th) no doubt helped. Over the last two years they’ve taken things to a whole new level or three. In 2023 it was a 3.73 ERA | 4.21 FIP (-0.48), so far this year it’s a 3.77 ERA | 4.37 FIP (-0.60). Together over the last two years they are at a 3.74 ERA | 4.28 FIP (-0.54) with the second best FIP beating team NYY down at 3.89 ERA | 4.24 FIP (-0.35). The gap between the Brewers and Yankees in 1st/2nd is the same as the gap between the Yankees in 2nd down to NYM/TOR in 7th/8th. Put it all together since 2023 and the Brewers 23.1 fWAR ranks 19th while their 39.9 rWAR ranks 1st, as in thee very best in baseball (by a couple decimal points). Again, the defense notching +102 DRS (2nd) has been a huge factor in this whole Run Prevention Unit thing.
  19. sveumrules
    Yeah, hopefully he’s back to feeling a little healthier after that hammy. pre-injury (156 PA) 233/340/474 (127 wRC+) post-injury (158 PA) 193/268/350 (71 wRC+) since 0726 (50 PA) 341/380/659 (178 wRC+) Recent hot streak has raised his wRC+ from 99 on 0724 to 110 today, working back up towards his 126 career mark entering the season.
  20. sveumrules
    Nice to see Contreras making better swing decisions and Murphy giving him more regular DH games. Small samples, but one reason I think they’re keeping Haase around (besides to be the backup C next year) is that the Brewers are 5 W - 4 L in his nine starts behind the plate compared to 6 W - 13 L when Sanchez is back there. Even crazier is that Sanchez has raked to the tune of 135 wRC+ when catching versus a lowly 45 wRC+ when DH-ing, yet they’ve gone 15 W - 9 L in those Gary DH games.
  21. sveumrules
    At least one Swanson is having a good summer anyway. I tried finding out if Dansby was somehow part of the Swanson TV Dinner bloodline at one point, and apparently his dad’s name is Cooter.
  22. sveumrules
    If you wanna feel really old Gomez & Lucroy are still only 38 & have been retired for five and three years, respectively. ⚰️🪦
  23. sveumrules
    Brewers now a half game behind the Dodgers for the #2 seed, compared to seven games ahead of the Cardinals for the NLC lead.
  24. sveumrules
    Yeah, for me FIP/xFIP are more of a jumping off point than a final verdict, but also probably the best we have for communicating the most important statistical information in a quick and dirty fashion. Looks like Myers 4.59 FIP is mostly on account of that uugly 1.81 HR9, but xFIP understands HR rate is fluky so he comes in with a much better 3.75 mark there which is 6th in the sample. He’s obviously showing some promise as a FIP beater in MLB too at 3.02 ERA | 4.40 FIP so far. Manuel’s 3.7 BB% is first by a decent margin in the sample with Meeker second at 6.2%, but he just doesn’t K enough guys and allows too many HR for FIP’s tastes. It also doesn’t know that he threw all those innings super efficiently as a not even really exaggerating boy among men either. Looks like Manuel is the most extreme fly ball pitcher in the sample as well at 47.7% which is an encouraging trait for a potential FIP beating profile. Something else kind of interesting is despite the low 20.1 K% (23rd), Manuel’s 15.6 SwStr% is 3rd in the sample.
  25. sveumrules
    Here’s a fun list. There are thirty one Brewers minor league pitchers with at least 100 IP from 2023 through yesterday. Merkel is at 3.23 xFIP (3rd) | 3.36 FIP (3rd) | 1.08 WHIP (4th) | 15.5 SwStr% (4th) | .208 AVG (5th) | 28.5 K% (5th) | 7.6 BB% (8th) | 3.78 ERA (9th) | 0.76 HR9 (10th) Looks like his killer is a 64.9 LOB% (28th) which is probably why his ERA hasn’t quite lived up to the peripherals.
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