sveumrules

I’m seeing the Brewers smack dab in the middle of the NL for runs scored over the last two months. Their twenty nine wins over the last two months are third in the NL ahead of both LAD and PHI.

Luke Adams with a homer (his 10th of the year) and walk in the early going. Cooper Pratt just picked up his first Midwest League RBI with a sac fly, & a Matthew Wood double scores Adams for the third TRats run.

Looks like Nashville is in rain delay. Carlos Rodriguez has put up four scoreless (3 K) with a single, HBP and wild pitch - though the latter two both came bottom of four before the delay so conditions may have contributed.

Biloxi loads them up one out bottom of two with an Adam Hall single (stolen base) followed by Zavier Warren and Dylan O’Rae walks. & a Carlos Rodriguez sac fly brings home Hall to tie the score at one each. Now Brock Wilken has singled to give the Shuckers a 2 to 1 lead.

Does that mean Wes Clarke’s two run bomb doesn’t count??

Totally glossed over Guilarte in the DH spot, duh.

Will be interesting to see how games get divvied up in the Carolina infield. Adamczewski was 2B only on the complex. Baez has a 42 at 3B vs 8 at 2B split for the year. Maybe he gets more 2B time so Bitonti can still play some 3B? Di Turi is obviously the everyday SS with Pratt’s promotion, but who is the backup? Miguel Briceno? Bitonti? Also wonder if Bitonti gets some RF reps as that’s another spot he theoretically has the tools for.

Ross also threw last on July 24th. Looks like he's the guy (according to CBS Sports anyway).

I’m pretty much just crossing my fingers over here too. Thought this was kind of funny though… Junis 18.8 K% | 5.0 BB% | 1.38 HR9 Montas 19.0 K% | 10.0 BB% | 1.35 HR9 K and HR rates are virtually identical this year, Frankie just walks twice as many guys. Guess the general idea is Montas has a higher ceiling (even if he’s gonna need some help/luck getting there) and can eat more innings? I would have preferred Fedde or Kikuchi (guess there’s still time for Flaherty) but am also fine hanging onto the top prospects if we aren’t ultimately the winning bidder.

Also some interesting implications reading between the lines for Brewer Hicklen. At least a possibility that his strong season moved him ahead of Wiemer in the front office’s view, making Joey more expendable.

Dear Chris Hook, Good Luck.

Yeah, would have loved it if Erceg could have figured it out with us but it's a lot easier to give a guy with a career 5.9 BB9 in the minors a shot when you are losing 112 games like the A's did last year versus winning 92 like the Brewers did. Going back to last year the Brewers bullpen win probability added is +20.70, first in MLB by a longshot with CIN in second all the way down at +11.61, so they've been in an elite class of their own without him.

Anthony Flores had an ugly ERA (6.23) and BABIP (.411) in Arizona, but among 72 ACL pitchers with at least 30 IP on the season his 4.19 FIP ranked ninth.

Well deserved for the recent Indy Ball signing, 18 of Tyler's 32 outs in Carolina came via K. Maybe Midwest League batters can offer some more resistance. (hopefully not)

Pretty much comes down to one's valuation of Edman. Dodgers appear to believe he'll be able to bounce back to some semblance of the form his displayed from 2021-23 posting 96 wRC+ | +16.6 BsR | +35.3 DEF | 10.7 WAR over that stretch.

DSL Uno prevails over DSL Dos 5 to 4 in ten innings. Some standouts in addition to the aforementioned Luis Corobo... Luis Pena (2 for 5, double) Kevin Garcia (1 for 3, walk) Joandrew Pena (1 for 3, walk) Jonathan Rangel (0 for 2, walk, HBP, two stolen bases) Manuel Moreno 4.1 IP | 1 ER | 1 H | 0 BB | 3 K Saul Sanchez 2.0 IP | 0 ER | 0 H | 0 BB | 1 K Aldrin Gonzalez 2.0 IP | 0 ER | 1 H | 2 BB | 0 K Johan Zapata 2.0 IP | 0 ER | 0 H | 0 BB | 1 K Ever Urena 1.0 IP | 0 ER | 0 H | 0 BB | 1 K

Turang has hit 149/208/161 over his last 73 PA. Ortiz is at 143/213/167 over 47 PA since coming off the IL. Monasterio is at 195/283/268 for the season. I’d be looking for an infielder.

After homering yesterday Jackson Chourio has gotten his full season wRC+ back up to an even 100. thru 0601 (176 PA) 0.2 WAR 207/251/323 (60 wRC+) 5.7 BB% | 27.3 K% 52.2 Swing% 35,4 O-Swing% 73.2 Contact% 40.7 HardHit% since 0602 (153 PA) 1.6 WAR 319/366/518 (145 wRC+) 7.2 BB% | 15.0 K% 45.5 Swing% 27.1 O-Swing% 80.4 Contact% 47.1 HardHit%

There's a couple different ways to slice things up for sure. One would be to just separate out their insane 13 game stretch to start the season versus what they've done since... First 13 (0329-0413) 10 W - 3 L 287/358/478 (135 wRC+) 6.69 R/G Next 92 (0414-0728) 50 W - 42 L 249/327/388 (103 wRC+) 4.47 R/G I think those "Next 92" numbers are about the best estimate we have of the group's ever elusive true talent level at this point. The good news is that even with offense that is only a smidge above league average they've still played at an 88 Win pace for the majority of the season after a blazing start. Another way to slice it up is to follow the ebbs and flows by team record, this time I'll include some pitching numbers and league ranks during each stretch to give a bigger picture view... First 13 (0329-0413) 10 W - 3 L Hit: 135 wRC+ (2nd) | 6.69 R/G (1st) SP: 63 IP (26th) | 87 ERA- (8th) | 1.2 rWAR (11th) RP: 53 IP (10th) | 91 ERA- (12th) | +0.61 WPA (8th) [Pretty much clicking on all cylinders. Offense was unsustainably hot, bullpen was more good then elite, starters weren't throwing many innings but were preventing runs when they were out there.] Next 23 (0414-0508) 11 W - 12 L Hit: 97 wRC+ (14th) | 3.91 R/G (21st) SP: 114 IP (22nd) | 114 ERA- (23rd) | 1.2 rWAR (23rd) RP: 89 IP (7th) | 96 ERA- (14th) | +2.00 WPA (3rd) [Offense regressed with Yelich hurt, starters put up their worst stretch of the year, bullpen made sure they won the games they were supposed to limiting the fallow stretch to only one game under .500] Next 51 (0509-0703) 31 W- 20 L Hit: 105 wRC+ (13th) | 4.75 R/G (9th) SP: 236 IP (28th) | 98 ERA- (13th) | 4.1 rWAR (12th) RP: 216 IP (1st) | 68 ERA- (3rd) | +5.71 WPA (1st) [Offense bounced back with Yelich's return, starters kept the team in most games, bullpen was dominant. Went from tied for first in the NLC with Chicago on 0508 to having a seven game lead over STL on 0703] Last 18 (0704-0728) 8 W - 10 L Hit: 104 wRC+ (18th) | 4.39 R/G (18th) SP: 84 IP (30th) | 99 ERA- (11th) | 1.0 rWAR (18th) RP: 77 IP (9th) | 92 ERA- (14th) | +0.66 WPA (15th) [Pretty middle of the pack across the board with the exception of the SP/RP innings. Crazy thing about the offense during this recent stretch is that most of the roster has been hitting... Adames (78 PA | 129 wRC+), Contreras (76 PA | 105 wRC+), Chourio (68 PA | 137 wRC+), Hoskins (61 PA | 138 wRC+), Yelich (52 PA | 135 wRC+), Mitchell (47 PA | 130 wRC+), Perkins (36 PA | 126 wRC+), Bauers (27 PA | 192 wRC+) and Haase (25 PA | 214 wRC+) is nine of thirteen hitters above average and eight of them comfortably so. That leaves Frelick (57 PA | 89 wRC+) who has been below average as a regular, Monasterio (24 PA | 63 wRC+) who has been bad as the last man on the bench, then Turang (73 PA | 8 wRC+) and Ortiz (47 PA | 10 wRC+) who have been absolutely brutal.] If anyone made it this far, my takeaway is that in addition to the obvious SP need Arnold & Associates should to be looking long and hard for an IF that can supplant Monasterio and give Turang/Ortiz more consistent rest days.

He’s a little short of the standard currently, but a couple two tree more good years should put him over the top… Freeman 59.9 WAR | 39.7 peak WAR7 | 49.6 JAWS Helton 61.8 WAR | 46.6 peak WAR7 | 54.2 JAWS avg HOF 1B 64.8 WAR | 42.0 peak WAR7 | 53.4 JAWS A lot of people don’t consider Votto 1st ballot material and he’s at 64.5 WAR | 46.9 peak WAR7 | 55.7 JAWS.

Bauers positional splits are insane this year… as OF (28 PAs) 364/500/591 (208 wRC+) [doesn’t include today’s 2 for 3 with triple, HR and walk] as PH (21 PAs) 286/524/489 (184 wRC+) as 1B (177 PAs) 195/277/352 (77 wRC+)

Looks like Nashville is postponed, so three outs away from a 4 W - 0 L day.

Dylan O’Rae swings at nothing loading the bases with a five pitch walk.

Insurance Run(s): Achievement Unlocked 🏆🏆

Sam Gardner back out and works a three up three down (1 K) eighth. Brock Wilken has singled to lead off the ninth trying to get some insurance run(s) for the Shuckers.