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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    I consider myself more of a rapscallion.
  2. sveumrules
    Here is a little check-your-own work that Ben Clemens did back in September of 2021 on the FG Playoff Odds... How Well Do Our Playoff Odds Work?
  3. sveumrules
    My guess would be... Ca: Haase 1B: Bauers 2B: Collins 3B: Monasterio SS: Ortiz LF: Frelick CF: Perkins RF: Mitchell DH: El Gary
  4. sveumrules
    Checking the Brewers game logs on BRef it looks like they are 23 W - 27 L when they don't HR. If I counted right the other NL contenders are at... SDP (20 W - 29 L) NYM (16 W - 28 L) PHI (16 W - 29 L) LAD (15 W - 32 L) ATL (16 W - 35 L) ARI (14 W- 34 L)
  5. sveumrules
    I'd say what we've seen from Mitchell so far this year (about a 5 WAR/600 PAs pace) is pretty close to his realistic upside if he can stay healthy for an extended stretch. 2022-23 (141 PAs) 9.2 BB% | 38.3 K% 278/343/452 (119 wRC+) .441 BABIP | .175 ISO 2024 (194 PAs) 11.9 BB% | 30.9 K% 260/352/467 (129 wRC+) .365 BABIP | .207 ISO Walk rate and ISO both up, K rate and BABIP still high but at more work-with-able levels.
  6. sveumrules
    Six pitchers in the Brewers system with at least 30 IP and an xFIP under 3.00 this year are... Yoho (1.90), KC Hunt (2.32), Sam Gardner (2.44), Yorman Galindez (2.75), Shane Smith (2.89) and Chase Costello (2.92).
  7. sveumrules
    Awesome breakdown on how the Brewers completely flipped the script on Frankie’s season. Frankie Reds 85 K%+ | 120 HR9+ | 104 AVG+ | 115 ERA- | 114 FIP- Frankie Brewers 128 K%+ | 95 HR9+ | 84 AVG+ | 86 ERA- | 86 FIP- I believe I typed something along the lines of “Dear Chris Hook, Good Luck” in the initial trade thread, but it turns out minimal luck was required on account of good design.
  8. sveumrules
    For the first four months it was CLE (61) and ATL (71) on ERA- and CLE (+11.02) on WPA. Since August 1st its DET (65) and LAA (68) on ERA- and PHI (+4.27) on WPA. CLE bullpen has come down a little to "only" a 77 ERA- (6th) and +3.63 WPA (4th) since August 1st.
  9. sveumrules
    Was looking at Colin Rea’s game log after last night’s first career save and obviously every player’s performance goes through peaks and valleys, but hopefully last night is the first step on an upswing going into the playoffs… 0331 to 0421 (21.2 IP) 2.08 ERA | 4.05 FIP 0426 to 0519 (27.0 IP) 5.67 ERA | 5.25 FIP 0525 to 0616 (28.0 IP) 1.93 ERA | 4.06 FIP 0621 to 0709 (22.2 IP) 5.56 ERA | 5.33 FIP 0714 to 0806 (23.0 IP) 1.57 ERA | 2.48 FIP 0813 to 0911 (31.2 IP) 7.39 ERA | 6.83 FIP If the pattern holds he should be in line for another twenty some innings of good Rea after last night’s 2.2 IP of 0.00 ERA | 2.42 FIP.
  10. sveumrules
    Yeah, Brewers 31 W - 15 L record against the AL is more or less tied with ATL (29 W- 14 L) for the best in MLB at the moment. Top four teams for inter-league record and eight of the top ten are NL clubs. The two AL teams in the Top Ten - SEA and TBR - are unlikely to make the playoffs.
  11. sveumrules
    I think it was more of a depth issue. Tyler Black and Wes Clarke played the lions's share of 1B (831 innings) in Nashville which left 396 innings to be split up among Owen Miller, Patrick Dorrian and Noah Campbell. Especially with Clarke catching zero innings this year and Black not seeing time at other spots until closer to the deadline its just too hard to have three more or less first base only guys. Martinez also hasn't been this version of Martinez all year long. Thru June 30th he was at 256 PAs of 236/305/397 (108 wRC+) with a 6.6 BB% and 19.1 K%. Since July 1st its 201 PAs of 349/443/558 (195 wRC+) with an 11.4 BB% and 13.9 K%.
  12. sveumrules
    First tiebreaker after head to head is inter-division record. Phillies are currently 27 W - 18 L vs the NLE and Brewers are 30 W - 19 L vs the NLC to this point. If that ends up tied too it would go to intra-division records. Phillies are currently 37 W - 22 L vs the rest of the NL while the Brewers come in at 26 W - 29 L.
  13. sveumrules
    Thru July 31st, the Brewers rotation was at 513.2 IP (30th) | 100 ERA- (13th) | 7.1 rWAR (16th). Since trading for Montas at the deadline its 228.2 IP (8th) | 92 ERA- (8th) | 4.0 rWAR (9th). The early season bullpen that put up 445.2 IP (1st) | 80 ERA- (3rd) | +8.82 WPA (2nd) thru July 31st and was never going to be able to hold up under such a heavy workload has posted 151 IP (18th) | 69 ERA- (3rd) | +4.24 WPA (2nd) since August 1st.
  14. sveumrules
    Among 1,382 minor league pitchers across all levels with at least 50 IP, Craig Yoho ranks 1st with a 1.34 FIP. Among 304 minor league pitchers across all levels with at least 100 IP, KC Hunt ranks 1st with 2.29 FIP.
  15. sveumrules
    BRef has Pee Wee with a .377 career SLG. .269 of that is his batting average though, which leaves him with an isolated slugging of .108. JJ does have a .408 career SLG with an average of .256 underneath leaving an isolated slugging of .152.
  16. sveumrules
    Wow, Nick Kahle much in the clutch with a two out two RBI double to put the Shuckers back on top 5 to 4 bottom seven. & Felix Valerio follows up with a two run BOMB.
  17. sveumrules
    Checking the standings post-trade deadline there are seven teams bunched together at the top. Here's a quick look at how they each got there... ARI (24 W - 14 L) 134 wRC+ (1st) | 6.45 R/G (1st) +3.1 BsR (6th) | +0.6 FLD (12th) SP: 1.2 rWAR (24th) | RP: +0.72 WPA (20th) (Best Offense, Worst Pitching) LAD (24 W - 14 L) 115 wRC+ (4th) | 5.21 R/G (3rd) +5.5 BsR (2nd) | +0.6 FLD (12th) SP: 1.6 rWAR (22nd) | RP: +2.47 WPA (7th) (Rotation Only Weakness) SDP (24 W - 14 L) 117 wRC+ (2nd) | 5.08 R/G (4th) +4.2 BsR (5th) | -3.6 FLD (22nd) SP: 2.0 rWAR (19th) | RP: +1.10 WPA (14th) (Top End Offense, Middling Pitching, Bad Defense) CHI (23 W - 14 L) 116 wRC+ (3rd) | 5.81 R/G (2nd) +4.5 BsR (4th) | +6.6 FLD (7th) SP: 3.4 rWAR (12th) | RP: +1.16 WPA (12th) (Top End Position Players, Above Average Pitching) DET (24 W - 15 L) 100 wRC+ (16th) | 4.36 R/G (17th) +2.2 BsR (13th) | +7.2 FLD (6th) SP: 3.9 rWAR (9th) | RP: +2.77 WPA (4th) (Middling Offense, Above Average Rotation, Top End Bullpen / Defense) NYM (24 W - 15 L) 105 wRC+ (10th) | 4.54 R/G (8th) -2.3 BsR (23rd) | +1.3 FLD (10th) SP: 5.0 rWAR (4th) | RP: +1.01 WPA (16th) (Top End Rotation, Top Ten Offense, Middling Bullpen) MIL (24 W- 15 L) 104 wRC+ (11th) | 4.92 R/G (5th) +2.9 BsR (9th) | +8.1 FLD (3rd) SP: 4.2 rWAR (8th) | RP: +4.84 WPA (1st) (Most Complete Team Since The Deadline ??)
  18. sveumrules
    Brewers have scored 5 or 6 runs in 32 of their 147 games so far this year, so about a 21.77% chance.
  19. sveumrules
    This is one of those situations that WAR was more or less invented for... Ohtani BREF (7.2 WAR) +54 BAT | +9 RUN | 0 FLD | -12 POS | +20 REP Lindor BREF (6.5 WAR) +28 BAT | +5 RUN | +3 FLD | +9 POS | +21 REP Ohtani FanGraphs (6.8 WAR) +52.6 BAT | +7.1 RUN | 0.0 FLD | -15.3 POS | +19.8 REP Lindor FanGraphs (7.2 WAR) +26.6 BAT | +4.2 RUN | +10.8 FLD | +6.5 POS | +20.0 REP Depending how much one values position and defensive performance Lindor either comes in about 0.7 WAR behind by BRef's calculations versus 0.4 WAR ahead by FanGraph's computations.
  20. sveumrules
    Any and every ex-Brewer.
  21. sveumrules
    Hoskins has underwhelmed, no doubt, but prior to this season he averaged 26 HR | 70 RBI per 500 PAs and this year he is at 23 HR | 71 RBI in 460 PAs. He’s delivered to reasonable expectations in the old school run producing categories, at least, and his .199 ISO and 23 HR are both 2nd on a team with plenty of speed (+14.8 BSR | 2nd), defense (+69 DRS | 3rd), walks (9.8 BB% | 2nd), and singles (808 | 7th), but not a whole lot of power (.156 ISO | 15th and 161 HR | 16th). From 2017-22 with the Phillies, Hoskins posted… 152 BB+ | 109 K+ | 96 AVG+ | 148 ISO+ | 126 wRC+ Over his first 156 pre-injury PAs with the Brewers he came in at… 140 BB+ | 94 K+ | 95 AVG+ | 154 ISO+ | 127 wRC+ Not an exact match to his career norms, but pretty darn close trading a few walks and strikeouts for a little more power. He also had one hot stretch since returning from injury covering 112 PAs from 0705 to 0813 where his production took a way different shape… 87 BB+ | 131 K+ | 104 AVG+ | 197 ISO+ | 137 wRC+ Ideally he’s got a few more big hits left in him this year, then with a full offseason and that FA carrot dangling he can bounce back and put up a full healthy season in 2025 (for the defending WS Champions).
  22. sveumrules
    Yeah, probably have another vote after the postseason or the AFL is over to have a fresh list for the offseason. Looks like Braylon was mostly slotted in the teens this go round, but he did get a #8 and #10 for his two highest placements. For me personally I’ve got Misio & Pratt in the top tier, then Black/Quero/Gasser in their own little holding pattern tier. After that I’d have Braylon somewhere in the next grouping with Henderson, Yophery, Made, Peña, Adams, Yoho and Knoth for spots six to thirteen. I’d have the third basemen - Bitonti, Wilken, Boeve - after that. Lotsa viable options for the final four spots but I’d probably lean Lara, Hunt, Carlos Rodriguez the pitcher and Jose Anderson at the moment.
  23. sveumrules
    That split was posted before the game on 0802, over 149 PA since then Chourio is at... 106 BB+ | 80 K+ | 125 AVG+ | 168 ISO+ | 160 wRC+ Insane how kid just keeps getting better and better, upping his walk rate and power production substantially with a minimal tradeoff on batting average and strikeouts over the last five weeks.
  24. sveumrules
    Obviously a tiny sample, but Braylon Payne has five singles, five RBI, four stolen bags, three runs scored, two walks, a double and a triple over his first three games as the youngest player in the Carolina League. His 583/643/833 triple slash shakes out to a 315 wRC+.
  25. sveumrules
    1 W - 0 L
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