sveumrules

Peralta, Myers, Rea, Civale will all be back. Woodruff and Gasser coming off injury. Front office could still view Hall or Ashby as rotation options next year. Misio, Logan Henderson, KC Hunt, Shane Smith, Chad Patrick, Carlos Rodriguez at AAA. I'm sure they'll add some more depth options around the edges, but I don't really foresee any big payroll type additions to the staff.

The same bull headed determination that got him to 4,256 prevented him from owning up to his betting on baseball, and ultimately getting into the Hall. His life was essentially like a Greek Tragedy on AstroTurf.

For additional context on some of the other categories, here are the 2024 Brewers ranks out of 300 individual team seasons over the last decade... 217 stolen bases (2nd) +14.25 bullpen WPA (2nd) -0.54 ERA / FIP (3rd) +19.8 BsR (4th)

Yeah, they have a column for Infield Hits under the batted ball tab on FanGraphs. Brewers were 1st there too at 147 with PIT (141) and PHI (140) a few behind them. Going back to 2014 those 147 Infield Hits rank 13th out of 300 individual team seasons in the last decade.

Believe Wande Torres had some reports of velo in the 95 MPH range this year coming back after surgery.

DRS turns out more extreme results for sure. They had TOR 1st with +106 and the White Sox last with -88. StatCast's FRV also had TOR in 1st and the White Sox in last, but their spread was only from +45 on the top to -57 on the bottom. Brewers were 5th here at +29. Based on how much stock the Brewers have been putting in defense for the last almost a decade now my best guess is their internal model spits out results closer to DRS than to FRV.

With 28 of the 30 teams victory totals in the books for the year I thought I would update the tallies here. Format is...TEAM (24 proj. wins | 24 actual wins | difference) with the fourth column representing the updated 2016-24 full season cumulative difference... MIL (80 | 93 | +13 | +71) CLE (80 | 92 | +12 | +24) KCR (76 | 86 | +10 | -37) SDP (83 | 93 | +10 | -31) PHI (85 | 95 | +10 | +17) NYY (87 | 94 | +7 | +27) BAL (84 | 91 | +7 | +9) DET (79 | 86 | +7 | -43) WAS (65 | 71 | +6 | -19) ARI (84 | 89 | +5 | +12) LAD (94 | 98 | +4 | +54) BOS (79 | 81 | +2 | +7) CHC (82 | 83 | +1 | -4) SEA (85 | 85 | 0 | +36) STL (83 | 83 | 0 | +9) COL (62 | 61 | -1 | +15) OAK (71 | 69 | -2 | -9) PIT (78 | 76 | -2 | -14) CIN (79 | 77 | -2 | -10) HOU (91 | 88 | -3 | +38) MIN (85 | 82 | -3 | -16) SFG (83 | 80 | -3 | -9) TEX (82 | 78 | -4 | -4) TBR (85 | 80 | -5 | +38) TOR (84 | 74 | -10 | -30) LAA (78 | 63 | -15 | -67) MIA (81 | 62 | -19 | -40) CHW (66 | 41 | -25 | -50)

For a more team-centric view, here are a few categories where the Brewers excelled... Walk Percentage 01. NYY 10.8 % 02. MIL 9.7% 03. LAD 9.6% Stolen Bases 01. WAS 223 02. MIL 217 03. CIN 207 Baserunning 01. MIL +19.8 runs 02. CIN +15.7 runs 03. ARI +12.5 runs Defensive Runs Saved 01. TOR 106 02. CLE 81 03. MIL 64 PAs w/ RISP 01. ARI 1,741 02. MIL 1,726 03. LAD 1,700 OPS w/ RISP 01. ARI .852 02. MIL .809 03. NYY .809 Runs Scored w/ 2 Outs 01. MIL 332 02. LAD 325 03. ARI 321 Park/League Adjusted ERA- 01. ATL 84 02. MIL 88 93. KCR 89 ERA / FIP differential 01. MIL -0.54 02. CLE -0.38 03. NYY -0.30 Bullpen WPA 01. CLE +15.62 02. MIL +14.25 03. ATL +7.75 Left on Base Percentage 01. MIL 76.7% 02. CLE 75.7% 03. HOU 75.2%

NEW PITCHERS (+12.1 rWAR) Tobias Myers 24 (138.0 IP | 73 ERA- | 3.5 rWAR) Bryan Hudson 24 (62.1 IP | 42 ERA- | 2.7 rWAR) Aaron Civale 24 (74.0 IP | 85 ERA- | 1.6 rWAR) Jared Koenig 24 (62.0 IP | 60 ERA- | 1.4 rWAR) Robert Gasser 24 (28.0 IP | 62 ERA- | 0.9 rWAR) Joe Ross 24 (74.0 IP | 91 ERA- | 0.7 rWAR) Enoli Paredes 24 (20.2 IP | 42 ERA- | 0.7 rWAR) Jakob Junis 24 (26.0 IP | 59 ERA- | 0.6 rWAR) Frankie Montas 24 (57.1 IP | 110 ERA- | 0.3 rWAR) DL Hall 24 (42.0 IP | 122 ERA- | 0.0 rWAR) Dallas Keuchel 24 (16.2 IP | 131 ERA- | 0.0 rWAR) Nick Mears 24 (12.1 IP | 177 ERA- | -0.3 rWAR) NEW POSITIONALS (+7.2 WAR) Jackson Chourio 24 (573 PAs | 117 wRC+ | 3.9 WAR) Joey Ortiz 24 (511 PAs | 104 wRC+ | 3.1 WAR) Gary Sanchez 24 (280 PAs | 96 wRC+ | 0.3 WAR) Eric Haase 24 (69 PAs | 125 wRC+ | 0.3 WAR) Rhys Hoskins 24 (517 PAs | 100 wRC+ | 0.1 WAR) Oliver Dunn 24 (104 PAs | 68 wRC+ | 0.1 WAR) Jake Bauers 24 (346 PAs | 87 wRC+ | 0.0 WAR) Black/Collins/Capra/Hicklen 24 (90 PAs | bad wRC+ | -0.6 WAR)

HOLDOVER PITCHERS (-7.4 rWAR) Trevor Megill (+0.9 rWAR) 23 (34.2 IP | 83 ERA- | 0.4 rWAR) 24 (46.1 IP | 66 ERA- | 1.3 rWAR) Colin Rea (+0.7 rWAR) 23 (124.2 IP | 104 ERA- | 1.3 rWAR) 24 (167.2 IP | 104 ERA- | 2.0 rWAR) Freddy Peralta (+0.6 rWAR) 23 (165.2 IP | 88 ERA- | 2.9 rWAR) 24 (173.2 IP | 89 ERA- | 3.5 rWAR) Aaron Ashby (+0.4 rWAR) 23 (DID NOT PITCH DUE TO INJURY) 24 (28.1 IP | 69 ERA- | 0.4 rWAR) Bryse Wilson (-0.3 rWAR) 23 (76.2 IP | 59 ERA- | 1.3 rWAR) 24 (104.2 IP | 98 ERA- 1.0 rWAR) Elvis Peguero (-0.4 rWAR) 23 (61.1 IP | 77 ERA- | 1.0 rWAR) 24 (51.1 IP | 72 ERA- | 0.6 rWAR) Joel Payamps (-0.8 rWAR) 23 (70.2 IP | 58 ERA- | 1.8 rWAR) 24 (59.0 IP | 74 ERA- | 1.0 rWAR) Abner Uribe (-1.3 rWAR) 23 (30.2 IP | 40 ERA- | 0.9 rWAR) 24 (14.1 IP | 167 ERA- | -0.4 rWAR) Devin Williams (-1.5 rWAR) 23 (58.2 IP | 35 ERA- | 2.9 rWAR) 24 (21.2 IP | 30 ERA- | 1.4 rWAR) Hoby Milner (-2.3 rWAR) 23 (64.1 IP | 42 ERA- | 1.9 rWAR) 24 (64.2 IP | 115 ERA- | -0.4 rWAR) Wade Miley (-3.4 rWAR) 23 (120.1 IP | 79 ERA- | 3.3 rWAR) 24 (7.0 IP | 156 ERA- | -0.1 rWAR) HOLDOVER POSITIONALS (+2.3 WAR) Brice Turang (+2.7 WAR) 23 (448 PAs | 61 wRC+ | -0.2 WAR) 24 (619 PAs | 87 wRC+ | 2.5 WAR) Garrett Mitchell (+1.5 WAR) 23 (73 PAs | 103 wRC+ | 0.3 WAR) 24 (224 PAs | 126 wRC+ | 1.8 WAR) Willy Adames (+1.4 WAR) 23 (638 PAs | 94 wRC+ | 3.3 WAR) 24 (688 PAs | 119 wRC+ | 4.7 WAR) Blake Perkins (+0.6 WAR) 23 (168 PAs | 89 wRC+ | 1.0 WAR) 24 (434 PAs | 83 wRC+ | 1.6 WAR) Sal Frelick (+0.5 WAR) 23 (223 PAs | 93 wRC+ | 1.1 WAR) 24 (524 PAs | 86 wRC+ | 1.6 WAR) William Contreras (-0.3 WAR) 23: (611 PAs | 125 wRC+ | 5.7 WAR) 24: (679 PAs | 131 wRC+ | 5.4 WAR) Andruw Monasterio (-0.7 WAR) 23 (315 PAs | 88 wRC+ | 0.5 WAR) 24 (142 PAs | 68 wRC+ | -0.2 WAR) Christian Yelich (-0.8 WAR) 23 (632 PAs | 122 wRC+ | 3.8 WAR) 24 (315 PAs | 153 wRC+ | 3.0 WAR) Owen Miller (-1.1 WAR) 23 (314 PAs | 81 wRC+ | 0.9 WAR) 24 (27 PAs | 8 wRC+ | -0.2 WAR) Joey Wiemer (-1.5 WAR) 23 (410 PAs | 75 wRC+ | 1.1 WAR) 24 (27 PAs | -6 wRC+ | -0.4 WAR)

DEPARTING PITCHERS (6.0 rWAR lost) Corbin Burnes 23 (193.2 IP | 78 ERA- | 4.8 rWAR) Brandon Woodruff 23 (67.0 IP | 52 ERA- | 2.8 rWAR) Adrian Houser 23 (111.1 IP | 94 ERA- | 1.4 rWAR) Julio Teheran 23 (71.1 IP | 101 ERA- | 0.8 rWAR) Peter Strzelecki 23 (35.2 IP | 104 ERA- | 0.1 rWAR) Andrew Chafin 23 (17.0 IP | 133 ERA- | -0.4 rWAR) Eric Lauer 23 (46.2 IP | 150 ERA- | -0.8 rWAR) Everybody Else 23 (about a 100 ugly IP | -2.7 rWAR) DEPARTING POSTIONALS (0.9 WAR lost) Victor Caratini 23 (226 PAs | 95 wRC+ | 1.1 WAR) Tyrone Taylor 23 (243 PAs | 88 wRC+ | 1.0 WAR) Mark Canha 23 (204 PAs | 120 wRC+ | 0.9 WAR) Carlos Santana 23 (226 PAs | 107 wRC+ | 0.7 WAR) Brian Anderson 23 (361 PAs | 86 wRC+ | 0.3 WAR) Mike Brosseau 23 (78 PAs | 74 wRC+ | -0.4 WAR) Luke Voit 23 (74 PAs | 53 wRC+ | -0.4 WAR) Rowdy Tellez 23 (351 PAs | 78 wRC+ | -0.7 WAR) Jesse Winker 23 (197 PAs | 66 wRC+ | -0.8 WAR) Dnldsn/Urias/Tapia/Jon/Ruf/Toro 23 (281 PAs | bad wRC+ | -0.8 WAR)

Well dang, the Brewers went and won themselves 93 games. How they do that? I thought it might be interesting to see how exactly they got there so I split the roster up into departing players, holdovers and new additions. Then split those groups into pitcher and position player groups. Here's what all that looks like...

Wenderlyn King was ROBBED. K% Wenderlyn (25.9%) Jaquez (23.6%) Aparicio (21.0%) Bravo (18.9%) BB% Wenderlyn (3.6%) Aparicio (5.6%) Bravo (8.9%) Jaquez (13.0%) HR/9 Wenderlyn (0.24) Jaquez (0.29) Bravo (0.40) Aparicio (0.94) FIP Wenderlyn (3.07) Bravo (4.24) Aparicio (4.37) Jaquez (4.65) I'd have King, Wande Torres and Hayden Robinson as the top three with a decent bit of separation between them and everyone else because their results were just on a whole different level. I'd probably have Melvin Hernandez ahead of everyone in the article too. Only 17 this season but already put up 46 IP with a 3.81 FIP in Arizona while everyone else was still on the island.

Narv Dawg could swing it too. 4th all time among Brewers pitchers (min. 50 PAs ) with a 44 wRC+, just fractions ahead of Sabathia (42 wRC+) and Gallardo (41 wRC+). He had as many RBI (12) as Sheets in 362 fewer PAs. Randy Wolf and Zack Greinke are the only Brewers pitchers to record a stolen base. Can't help but wonder if maybe they had some kind of contest going on similar to their gentlemanly rivalry over who could throw the slowest curveball.

They can proudly display their Week Four Champions trophy in the lobby.

Beating the always hated Cardinals and Counsell managed Cubs 8 W - 5 L each in the season series was pretty sweet. Rocking Stearns Mets and their $340M payroll 5 W - 0 L has been a whole other sensation.

Yeah, it’s small samples all around… 23 at 2B 197 inn | +2 DRS 24 at 2B 118 inn | +2 DRS 23 at 3B 456 inn | +6 DRS 24 at 3B 164 inn | -2 DRS …definitely better last year than this year at 3B, but like you said 2023 is also the largest of his individual samples by a considerable amount. Also did much better last year vs LHP with a 118 wRC+ over 93 PAs compared to only a 68 wRC+ over 67 PAs vs LHP this year.

+8 DRS the last two years in 935 innings at 2B/3B.

For whatever it is or isn't worth, Pythag says the Cubs had played five wins below their run differential entering today. Give the Cubs five extra wins and they are right in the thick of the Wild Card race.

So you exchange Patrick for one of the pitchers currently on the roster.

- 2 DRS this year at 2B is maybe live-with-able if the bat bounces back, but if the Brewers view his defense closer to the -8 FRV he has posted this year at 2B (-20 FRV for his career there) its probably a no go from the start.

Bregman is red flag central for me. 137 wRC+ in 2022, to 126 wRC+ in 2023, to 116 wRC+ this year. His power is almost entirely a product of the short LF porch in Houston. 7.0 BB% this year compared to 13.0% the last two years and 11.9% for his career. Will be 31 on Opening Day next year.

If Mother Nature is with us...who could possibly be against us?

Should have spent less on payroll and more on a roof.

Game of Runs, Season of Streaks Royals Highpoint 0827: 75 W - 58 L since: 8 W - 16 L Twins Highpoint 0817: 70 W - 53 L since: 11 W - 23 L Tigers Lowpoint 0704: 43 W - 49 L since: 44 W - 26 L DBacks Lowpoint 0531: 25 W - 32 L since: 62 W - 39 L Padres Midpoint 0719: 50 W - 50 L since: 41 W - 16 L Mets Lowpoint 0602: 24 W - 35 L since: 63 W - 35 L Orioles Highpoint 0707: 57 W - 33 L since: 30 W - 37 L Astros Lowpoint 0508: 12 W - 24 L since: 73 W - 49 L The Brewers have had a few bad weeks here and there no doubt, but looking at some of those splits it definitely seems like their season has been a lot less Jekyll & Hyde in nature compared to most of the other contenders.