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long ball

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Everything posted by long ball

  1. long ball
    I like Contreras. Really nice player. I don’t see the brewers extending him (or re-signing him as a free agent). Even if they don’t have faith in Quero or Dinges as primary catcher options, spending big on a catcher in his 30s is not a risk the Brewers can or should take. I fully expect 2026 to be his last year with the Brewers.
  2. long ball
    Curt Hogg said on blue sky that Will smith has the highest ever arb 2 figure at $8.55m in 2024. so the Brewers filing at $8.55m makes sense, but it’s also from 2 seasons ago. Probably a little light. also kinda surprised how much mlb trade rumors over shot the projection.
  3. long ball
    I agree with you. I think our CF position has a really low floor. however… they’ve shown a willingness (even if it was out of necessity) to play Frelick and Chourio in CF. Maybe Bauers is the answer to our outfield issues when Mitchell inevitably gets hurt.
  4. long ball
    Mears was a guy i expected to be non-tendered. So losing him doesnt really mean much to me. I was hoping maybe they’d try turning Collins into a true utility guy and increasing his reps at third and second, but I guess that dream is gone. Ultimately Collins’ best skill was drawing walks. I’m not going to get too worked up about trading a 4th outfielder though. I’ve never heard of Zero before tonight, but I have some faith in our pitching development and our infield defense to turn him into a useful reliever. The option certainly helps with roster construction and flexibility. the only thing that makes me nervous is that our pen is leaning very heavily left handed. I don’t think we head into the season with 5/8 relievers being left handed so I expect some more stuff to happen. I do wonder if we will be more willing to play Bauers in a corner OF spot next year. His bat showed some real promise down the stretch
  5. long ball
    I love Wild Bill, but I’d be surprised to see them carry him through to free agency and they certainly won’t extend him. I think most of us will agree that Quero will be the primary back up in 2026. I think the goal is to have him move into the primary catcher role in 2027. Even though Dinges is only a year younger than Quero I don’t think they’ll go with 2 young catchers so I’d expect a veteran to be brought in. infield is the hardest for me to predict. I think I’d lean toward Made and Pratt being part of the 2027 line up. I think Vaughn will be good in 2026, but he’s already on the expensive side for this team. So he’s a trade candidate if he’s good in 2026. I just don’t think they’ll be starting 3 rookies on the infield in 2027. So id officially predict Vaughn, Turang, Durbin , Made for opening day. (Also hoping made gets the Chourio extension and timeline) im not a big believer in Lara’s bat. I’m skeptical he’s a primary outfielder by 2027. I’m hoping Chourio or Frelick can stick it in CF. Easier to find or convert someone into a corner outfielder. I’m still hopeful for Mitchell… but tough to do anything other than hope with him these days. If I had to guess, the third primary outfielder isn’t in the organization today. pitching staff looked good.
  6. long ball
    This is really cool. Good for Turang.
  7. long ball
    Hall might be in a weird spot. Too good to be a long man/swing man, but not durable enough to be a starter or high leverage reliever. with the way the roster is playing out, if he’s here, he might find himself in AAA a time or two.
  8. long ball
    Hey, William Contreras went on a heater immediately following the acquisition of Jansen. While it’s possibly a little naive to think acquiring a higher quality back up motivated Contreras, I do think Jansen was acquired with the idea he’d get more than 78 players appearances. It just so happened Contreras started hitting like his career norm right after we got Jansen.
  9. long ball
    In this exercise where we are assuming everyone is healthy, I’m still taking Mitchell over either Collins or Perkins. Everything else is pretty self explanatory. could squabble over Chad Patrick in the rotation, but I agree with him over Henderson or Myers as of today.
  10. long ball
    I listened to Rosenthal on his podcast today and he basically contradicts what he wrote for the Athletic. He said he doesn’t expect them to trade Peralta. Then says he’s just speculating that they would trade someone to free up payroll flexibility because that’s what they always do.
  11. long ball
    The Cease contract is probably a pretty good indicator what a Freddy contract could be. not that I think many are advocating for extending Freddy or re-signing him next year.
  12. long ball
    I’m shocked Ortiz was a net positive in the ranking lol. this basically confirms my prior thoughts- avoiding strike outs and double plays at an above average rate helps with the “sequencing luck”
  13. long ball
    I’ve been thinking the same thing ever since we got the 2026 schedule release. Those 3 long stretches are daunting. I thought Mears would get non-tendered or traded. however, now that Woodruff has accepted the QO and Mears was tendered a contract I’ve sorta looked at this a different way. We are going to deal with injuries and inevitably some guys will end up disappointing in 2026 (see Hudson, payamps, and Peguero last year.) A Peralta trade or a Woodruff injury also put a big hit in the rotation depth. i think we need to lean into it and if that means hall or anderson spends some time in aaa so Yoho or McGee can come up for a week to eat some innings that’s fine with me. I know this is easy for me to say Fri my couch, but if Murphy is the 2 time manager of the year I hope he can get the buy in from all the guys who still have options to accept the role and be a performer in it
  14. long ball
    I know what I did… I saw that he was optioned March 10th and recalled March 31st. (Plus optioned and recalled a couple other times). I wasn’t even paying attention to the fact that the season didn’t started till 3/27 and presumably the time spent in the minors during spring training doesnt count toward that 20 days. thanks.
  15. long ball
    Does Grant Anderson actually have an option left? Going through his transactions, he was optioned at least 20 days in 2023, 2024, and 2025. I see that roster resource/fangraphs still shows 1 option remaining but I wonder if that’s a mistake. (Or maybe I made a mistake)
  16. long ball
    I think this is a very fair point. A team can and should be able to survive a player like 2025 Ortiz and still be a good team (heck, we were!) however, we don’t have the top flight talent at the top of the roster to help balance it out like many of the other playoff teams/contenders. FWIW- I expect Ortiz will be our starting SS heading into 2026 and I’m fine with it.
  17. long ball
    Locks: Wild Bill, Brice, Megill. I doubt any of them have a salary announced today though, just tendered Vaughn- I’m like 99% sure he’ll get tendered. I think there’s an outside chance they announce an agreement on a contract today. bauers- nothing would surprise me here. If I were calling the shots, I’d lean toward tendering him. mitchell- I see absolutely no reason not to tender him. Pro ejected for barely over league minimum and can be optioned. No sense in trading him since any return is going to have lower upside than the lottery ticket he already is. mears- I think he’s either traded today or non-tendered. They also have Anderson and Zastryzny who are out of options, but not yet arbitration eligible - so having all 3 of those guys take up space all off season on the 40 man makes things difficult.
  18. long ball
    The Brewers should explore improving the offense at short stop. I just think doing so will be quite challenging. Very limited viable free agent targets. With Pratt and/or Made likely being he future of the position as soon as 2027, it doesn’t make sense to sink a lot of trade capitol or financial investment into adding a player at SS. I suppose it’s possible the if Freddy is traded, part of the return could include a short stop option. Similar to a Caleb Durbin- low ceiling, highish floor, older prospect that a team would be willing to part with in a Freddy trade. Really the only feasible way I see an upgrade at SS is if they shuffle the infield alignment and move Turang to SS and add a player at either second or third to improve the offense. I have no idea what the appetite is for this within the org. Ultimately, Ortiz likely starts 2026 as the primary starter at SS. We just have to hope he hits more like 2024 than he did in 2025.
  19. long ball
    My guess is he actually just gets DFAd on 11/21 and will become a free agent. I don’t think we are in the market for a non-short stop playing utility infielder though considering we will run with a 4 man bench and Yelich is basically a DH only at this point. he’s also probably more expensive than we’d want to pay a utility guy.
  20. long ball
    So passan reported that the Mets are open to moving Senga, Nimmo, and McNeil. I was going to write a long winded post about how McNeil would be an interesting trade target if the Brewers are willing to move Turang to SS full time and the Mets were willing to cover a fair bit of the money he’s due… then I saw he had surgery for thoracic Outlet syndrome and now I’m no longer interested.
  21. long ball
    Is it really 9-10? This is how I see it in the rotation when healthy: (4 guys) freddy, woody, Misiorowski, and Priester Other rotation options (3 guys) henderson, Patrick, and gasser Guys who might just be relievers? (3 guys) Ashby, Myers, and hall deep depth/spot start only (2 guys) Crow and CRod so to me it’s more 7-8 guys. (Myers is the 8th guy for me right now). This is good depth and I really like our options. It’s not so deep that I want to trade away from it though. I totally understand the rationale for trading Freddy if they decide to do it, but I think our rotation depth might be a tad overstated.
  22. long ball
    That Naylor contract isn’t that bad, but I think we see why the Brewers don’t play in the free agent market. locking into a 5 year deal with a good, but not great, hitter at a non-premium defensive position is just begging to have an upset fanbase in 3 years when you’re paying a 1 WAR first baseman $40m over the next 2 seasons. (This is a comment on how we would react, not necessarily how Ms fans will react)
  23. long ball
    Given they’re all on the older side already, I don’t see a ton of improvement and we may have seen their best seasons already. Everyone else has basically nailed my opinion on Collins. I don’t have much to add here. Patrick was really good in 2025 and I think he showed that his floor is probably an excellent reliever. Durbin is the most interesting guy to me to speculate on. He relies so much on soft contact and HBP that his results could fluctuate quite a bit while still being essentially the same player. I maybe he could increase his walk rate a few points along to what he did in the minors, that could raise his floor if some of the hits/hbp disappear.
  24. long ball
    Ya the only reason to non-tender him is if they just want to cut costs at that position. There are no free agents who will sign for that much or less who are likely to be better than Vaughn. Worth to roll of the dice, imo. i also don’t think we have anyone internally to capably fill the role either.
  25. long ball
    That’s not really true. Teams may not use their catcher as a PH, but Contreras has been used as a DH a ton when he’s not the starting catcher. 2023: 108 starts at C, 29 DH 2024: 119 starts at C, 35 DH 2025: 128 starts at C, 22 DH
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