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Brewcrew82

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Everything posted by Brewcrew82

  1. Brewcrew82
    Blake is definitely a better defender. I’m not convinced Mitchell is, though. And all else being equal, I’ll go with the better hitter. Not sure Mitchell’s value would be depressed by moving him to RF, for instance. They’re so close defensively that I ultimately don’t expect them to do anything drastic, but I’d like to see them give Chourio reps in CF this spring.
  2. Brewcrew82
    Sure, but even then, there’s a legitimate case to be made… I’d at least give him some time there in ST.
  3. Brewcrew82
    He’s definitely a good fielder. All of them are. Perkins is a step above the rest, and should be playing CF any time he’s out there. I just wanted to point out that the 20 year old only a few years removed from playing in the infield was a lot better than people think compared to the 26 year old Mitchell. And it’s probably worth considering moving him there. If you do, you’re only increasing Chourio’s potential value.
  4. Brewcrew82
    Also, here's some food for thought: Jackson Chourio (2024 OF): 6 OAA, 12 DRS, 9.4 UZR/150, 3.1 DEF Garrett Mitchell: (2024 OF): 2 OAA, 6 DRS, 7.9 UZR/150, 1.3 DEF. There's like a serious case to be made to move Chourio to CF.....
  5. Brewcrew82
    Was just thinking about how our defensive alignment is a little more unsettled than usual heading into ST.... Catcher is straightforward with Contreras. But after that, it gets a lot more fuzzy... First base looks like Hoskins for now. But do you really want him playing the field that much? Is there a better option out there in FA and/or through trade? Second base ideally should belong to the Platinum Glover in Turang. But does Turang move to SS with Willy gone? 2B is also probably Durbin's best position, and you have to find him a place on the infield as of right now... Ortiz is the presumed favorite to start SS, but might the Brewers prefer to keep him at 3B where he thrived last year? In that case, could Turang be the one who takes over the SS position from Willy? Durbin is penciled in at third base right now according to most projections, but might he not be a better fit for 2B? Is Yelich healthy enough to play left field? Sal won the GG in RF, but Chourio was every bit as elite when he played there according to the metrics. Do you defer to your young stud?
  6. Brewcrew82
    I appreciate that he's willing to push his chips in on guys before they become more consensus among the mainstream sites. He'll miss on some, sure, but I think he's had a fair share of hits, like Made and Hope. I don't necessarily think his focus on chase and age is a bad thing, considering those are two of the biggest predictors of prospect success. Agree Adams was bad, though. Patently obvious his swing and hyperpassivity will run into trouble against higher level pitching.
  7. Brewcrew82
    Definitely has a track record, too. He was the first to put Made in his top 100 this summer.
  8. Brewcrew82
    The saddest day of Brewers baseball. Way worse than the one last October and puts the tears in Yeli's and the players’ faces after that game because of Ueck into context.
  9. Brewcrew82
    Ashby is a huge wild card for this team. He hasn’t been as terrible as a starter as people think, and his stuff now looks better than ever. If he could be Framber Valdez lite our rotation becomes a major strength for us again.
  10. Brewcrew82
    1) Fast riser: Made is the easy answer, but I wouldn't bet on anyone else. Should at least end up in Appleton considering Yophery and Lara both got there last two seasons. Outside chance at Biloxi, which would truly be a Chourio redux and probably mean he's a top 10/5 prospect. 2) Out of nowhere: 3) Rise to consensus top 100: Easy. Eric Bitonti, aka Mr. Coby Mayo clone. 4) Comeback player: Low hanging fruit is Quero, and I agree. I'll go with Wilken as my bounceback. Never going to hit for much average, but I think he'll hit many dingers this year, and perhaps even a few in Milwaukee. 5) Struggles/Disappointment: Luke Adams. I think velo is going to be an issue that finally catches up to him in AA with his swing mechanics. 6) Brewers end the season with 6 top 100 prospects, including two in the top 20. I'll go with Made, Bitonti, Pratt, Payne, Yophery, and Letson. Made and Bitonti as consensus top 20 guys.
  11. Brewcrew82
    Did you copy my idea? I’ve only posted about this like 3 times since the season ended? Lol But yes they should seeing as it’s about as like for like as they’re going to get replacing Adames. Caveat being that Bichette play 3B.
  12. Brewcrew82
    So, if my math is correct, works out to an average improvement of .4 WAR. That would equal to a baseline projection of between 4-4.5 WAR for Chourio next year. Which is very fair imo and non-coincidentally around what you would get if you would combined Steamer's projection of Chourio's bat (119 wRC+) with ZiPS' projection of his glove (+7 DEF). If you extrapolate his numbers from June on as a young player who suddenly figured MLB pitching out (142 wRC+), you would get something resembling an 80th percentile projection of around 5.5-6 WAR The last two categories do demonstrate that development isn't always linear. Chourio could take a slight to medium step back. I just don't see how you project it like ZIPS does considering the company he is in here (like half HOFers or future HOFers and most multitime all stars) and the fact that he's in the upper half of this cohort. It's also not like there's a major discrepancy between his peripheral stats and his actual stats which would possibly foreshadow regression. Relying on minor league numbers like ZiPS seemingly does here is super misleading imo when dealing with uber young, highly tooled up prospects like Chourio who were pushed aggressively throughout the minors.
  13. Brewcrew82
    Brewers should try to do a 3rd party swoop in here as they did with Contreras. Casas/Hoskins platoon at 1B and/or 1B/DH. All of a sudden Adames' power is replaced and what you do at 3B becomes a lot less important.
  14. Brewcrew82
    Full version is up, and yeah it’s just plain selling us short on LF and C. I mean ZIPS currently has Chourio projected for a full 1 WAR less than…..Pete Crow Armstrong. Yikes. Oh well, ZIPS undervaluing the Brewers. What’s new, right? https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2025-zips-projections-milwaukee-brewers/
  15. Brewcrew82
    It's like most projection systems which herd a ton and play things conservatively. In the aggregate it's quite accurate, but it will also miss at the team and individual levels at varying levels. With the Brewers, you are correct that it misses more often than not due largely to our emphasis on team defense. I personally just don't see an excuse for shortchanging Contreras or Chourio at their ages and the seasons they're coming off of, if that's what it's indeed doing.
  16. Brewcrew82
    A few things here: -LF and C seem way too low at first glance. Feel like ZIPS has to have Haase at replacement to sub replacement level and Yelich with some age/injury related decline. Because otherwise you'd have declines for Chourio and Contreras, and I don't know how you can reasonably project that, even at a 50% outcome level. -Very high on our SP. Seems like it pretty much assumes Woodruff returns to pre-injury form. So may be somewhat of a cancellation effect here between that and LF/C. -RP doesn't skip a beat without Devin. Reinforces how trading Devin was clearly the correct decision. -We really need to add another Corner IF. Dunn/Durbin, Ortiz, Turang, and Hoskins ain't going to cut it in the IF.
  17. Brewcrew82
    ZIPS preview is out, with full dataset to be released tomorrow.
  18. Brewcrew82
    Are the supposed payroll restrictions due to the TV situation real? Or are they more waiting out the market and ready to strike if the right opportunity arises?
  19. Brewcrew82
    I’m not convinced they need to be searching long-term there. Even with Wilken sputtering at AA, they have Boeve, Pratt, Bitonti, and Made making their way up through the ranks. You have to like the chances of at least one of those guys to entrench themselves in the IF over the next few years alongside Ortiz and Turang.
  20. Brewcrew82
    I keep hearing this (and I agree they probably need more power) but honestly the specific position they get the increased power from doesn’t really matter. Runs resulting from power count the same regardless of which position they come from. Sure in an ideal world it’d slot in nicely at 3B/SS to replace Adames, but there’s other positions they could acquire it from if the supply and price is better. Nate82 mentioned this before, but I wonder if the Brewers won’t eventually swoop in on the Pete Alonso sweepstakes on a pillow type deal. Pretty much all of the teams in the market for a 1B this winter have already acquired one, and the Mets who would be the most obvious suitor might have other players in mind. Sign Alonso and move Hoskins to DH and all of a sudden you have more power than you did last year with Adames. There’s also power bats in the OF still available which could lead them to deal a Frelick for depth elsewhere on the roster.
  21. Brewcrew82
    Brewers should definitely be among the teams talking with the Jays. About as close to a "like for like" replacement for Willy as you're going to get. I'd have no problem going for a one year rental in this situation, and the price shouldn't be too steep considering the year Bichette is coming off of. Only potential issue is that I doubt the Brewers feel comfortable with Bichette at SS considering the premium they place on defense up the middle. They would probably want to ask Bichette to move to 3B or 2B, which he may balk at as an impending FA. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6008454/2024/12/19/blue-jays-vladimir-guerrero-bo-bichette-yankees/
  22. Brewcrew82
    Turang to stay at 2B, per Rosenthal. Easy decision to not move the Platinum Glove winner imo.
  23. Brewcrew82
    He puts up another 3 WAR season for us in addition to the ones in 22 and last year, and he'll probably be looking at Severino's contract at least.
  24. Brewcrew82
    I understand the sentiment, but I would just push back on Nestor Cortes being a "dime a dozen guy that's available for near nothing every March". In the current starting pitching market, you have guys like Frankie Montas going for $17 million...Meanwhile, Fried who produced at a similar rate to Cortes last season got over $200 million. We'll only have him for one year, sure, but a guy at the salary and production of Cortes is like gold at $8 million in this market.
  25. Brewcrew82
    Projections have Chourio as a negative on defense and probably sell short his base running, too. 119 wRC+ from Chourio is almost certainly 4+ win player. He picks up where he left off post-June and that's a 5 win player at least most likely 6.
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