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BrewerFan

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Everything posted by BrewerFan

  1. They need to get the ball into Golden's hand with Watson out. Obviously Reed and Wicks, but Golden is the only other real speed threat.'
  2. Slightly confusing when their QB is Bo Nix, but... sure. Nixon has struggled. Bo Nix extending plays is hurting them.
  3. Sounds like a Collarbone for Watson... just really hope it's not broke.
  4. They're... not good. I like Valentine, but other than that, it's a bunch of guys who I think are clearly best as slot CBs playing soft coverage. Nix extending plays makes things look worse also. It's obviously hindsight and you wouldn't have Edgerrin Cooper, but the Eagles being aggressive and moving up for Mitchell and DeJean totally revamped that secondary. BUT... a dominant front can help make the corners look better. This is a huge series for the Packers here.
  5. I have no problem with taking a shot to Watson... I just don't like the outcome. But he and Reed have been making plays like that and Watson was in man(even though it was Surtain). We should be looking to put teams away... BUT now arguably the 2 most important players to this team behind Parsons and Love are on the sidelines/in the locker room. The BIGGEST win we could have this year is Tom and Watson not having serious injuries.
  6. Yeah, I agree. LOL... I mean, c'mon, this is a "safe place!" It's like Twitter where everyone's just pissing and moaning no matter what. They're upset because we haven't signed a big name free agent and have irrational expectations. We're all homers here(I mean, most of the board). Also, the whole narrative about how bad Collins was at the end of the year is getting tiresome. He played sporadically but he finished the year 2 for 29 with 6 walks and 6 strikeouts in his last 29 ABs of Sept. In the 29 ABs in the FIRST half of Sept, he put up a .280/.379/.480 .859 OPS... in Sept. So everyone saying "He finished the year poorly," it was EIGHT GAMES. 8 games in which he STILL had a .300 OBP. I think every Brewers had a stretch like that...
  7. This whole narrative about Collins being bad at the end of the year. C;'mon! Talk about small sample sizes. "I trust our front office." Me too. And that's what I'll lean on. But just looking at this trade, I believe the arguments for it would be cheering for it if it were the exact opposite. "We got 5 years of team control over a guy who finished 4th in ROY voting AND the reliever who had the better year last year? Arnold does it again!" I love this board and there's a lot of people who know the game REALLY well, they know the prospects... but the opinion is really 'well, if the Brewers did it, it's a good move!' I half wanna see the Brewers trade Made for... Trevor Story and see how popular that is. 'Prospects are no guarantee and Story is a big upgrade over Ortiz!' I trust the FO... I really do. We got a nice Ground Ball pitcher who... throws in the mid 90s. Hopefully we can get better, but this doesn't seem like a great value. I hope the Brewers are right though.
  8. Fair. I just saw Contreras and it... seemed to me as though you were not counting trades. I will reiterate my objection to trading Megill here(in vain) this year. If he has a big year... then 2027, ok. He's just not in that group(Hader, Williams or Burnes)... meanwhile, Contreras may be more valuable than any of them. Of course this is just a preliminary projection. ....and who knows what this will look like. KC Hunt could be in that rotation, he could be a SU man, Hardin could be a closer or a legit #2/3 starter by then, Wichrowski could be our SU man. I'd guess Ashby is dealt if not in the rotation...as he'll be expensive as a reliever, and I really don't love the value we got for Collins and Mears, but we did get another really nice reliever or long man. Another GB pitcher who... hopefully we can get some more hit and miss out of him.
  9. Well... with respect, you may want to refer to your prospect lists. He had a VERY serious shoulder injury that hurt his pop times. His value was in his defense. His bat looked like it could be MLB average(very good for a catcher). But then he had a torn labrum. That's a LOT for any player to come back from and... he hasn't come all the way back(yet). His arm WAS graded 70. That is a "plus-plus" arm. Now... per BA, it's got a 45 grade on it, that's fringe MLB strength. The hope is certainly that he gets his arm strength back. That's why he's slipped in the rankings. That's a MASSIVE difference. Ok. So... lets go with Pratt being Turang #2. Where do you want to play him? Turang-2B Pratt-SS Made-3B Chourio/LARA/Frelick-OF Pena will have a place on this team, but 2027 is probably a bit too soon, certainly opening day... I'd extend that again to Made and maybe even Pratt. You start them for opening day, you get them for 6 years. You call them up 2 months into the season, you get them for...effectively 7 years. That's a big deal for a team like the Brewers. I don't think much homework was required here. The OP knows the Brewers. He just happens to have different opinions... and I'd say they're probably more on the mark.
  10. We're Brewers fans, not idiots. We're well aware of Yount and Molitor. I was at Yount's 3,000 hit. 1st base line, watched him take it the other way. That said, I think you may be confusing Pratt and Made. As you can see in this thread, I'm very high on Pratt, but it's Made that is the superstar prospect. Leaving out Made is like leaving out Yount in the Young, Molitor, Gantner trio... I think some of us have WATCHED him play and... our opinion isn't entirely related to MLB Pipeline. Other sites have him.... going very much the other way. For a guy who has a poor profile as a fielder and DH only(which REALLY hurts a prospect ranking)...he's actually VERY well regarded.
  11. Saying he's "useless at the Major League level," seems... wildly premature. He had a injury plagued year last season, he was hurt when there was an opening. He got limited opportunities, but he'll get on base. I don't think he's useless in the field, I think he's actually a fine fit in LF. He's athletic and he has incredible plate discipline. He's just not a 3B and... we'll probably never know if he could have played 2B because we're pretty well set there. So LF, 1B, DH. Not every top 100 prospects clicks right away. Quinn Priester didn't. Also, top 100 lists are a.... nice guideline. There's no sport harder to project than Baseball. You're taking guys who are 16 to 21 when they sign to play MLB ball and grading them all together. He was also on the BA, MLB and Baseball Prospectus top 100 list. So... not just one. He's got elite plate discipline and he can hit. I think we give him 2026, see where we are.
  12. Turbo's fingers are twitching right now to tell us how Mitchell won't make it to April without an injury. As much as I'd like to agree with him(because I'm getting SO tired of seeing it)... it's pretty hard to. I am still holding out some hope for Tyler Black maybe. As a 4th OFer, he's athletic... for a LFer and I think he can get on base at a high level. Luke Adams, I still believe he'll get reps there. I have no confidence in Lockridge, he just looks like an athlete, don't know much about this new guy we signed. I do know... I may be physically ill if I have to see that Steward Berroa in the OF. Watching him pretend to bunt until he gets 2 strikes like that distracts MLB pitchers would get old REAL quick... but we have other options. Imperfect options. If Mitchell can stay healthy for a full year... he needs to not strike out 40% of the time(or... 34% whatever it is) on top of staying healthy. It seems like what he's done is play so little, have a couple big games, get injured and then his season line looks markedly better than it was. Also... Luis Lara. I'm a fan. Preferably another year in the future, but... he's talented.
  13. Great against the blitz, one of the worst against pressure. So basically he gets the ball out quickly. Didn't work out great vs Philly and that secondary... so I think Denver's secondary is vs our WRing core is going to be a really interesting matchup. Surtain II is one of the best Corners in the league. I don't think he can cover Watson though. McMillian is one of the better slot corners-Jayden Reed Talanoa Hufanga-Another stud safety. He was named 2nd team AP in the mid-season rankings(for whatever that's worth). They're going to make it tough. Quick pressures and pressures up the middle are the best way to get to Love. They have two speed rushers in Cooper and Bonitto and a few guys some big DTs who can collapse the pocket. This is going to be a great test for our offense. Dallas played this team at home with Pickens, with Lamb, Ferguson and Tolbert and the Broncos shut them down. So... I'm hoping @HarryDoyleis right and Denver's overrated. On a side note, if you know any white kids who wanted to play CB in the NFL... send 'em to Iowa! They seem to be the only team developing them! Riley Moss, starting CB for Denver, among the league leaders in PDs and separation per route.
  14. I think this is the definition of 'I guess I'll trust the Brewers here,' type trade. I like that this guy gets ground balls. That's... something. But as others have pointed out, if we were to get 5 years of Collins back in this trade(and the reliever who had the better year last year)... I think this board would be thrilled.
  15. I think we're exaggerating how easily we are able to turn out high leverage pitchers. And while throwing 100 has become... more common, it's not real common to have two of the hardest throwing relievers in your pen. He was 9th, Uribe was 3rd. I don't know why we want to take away from a strength. I also don't think his profile ages poorly, but I don't need him to last 5 more years. Just another year. And there's no indication he's slowing down. We already traded Mears. We traded Collins. We got what looks to be a... decent reliever back. I don't understand that trade unless Ashby moves to the rotation or Zerpa will, but it's hard for me to see how we're a better team next year without Megill. Unless we're getting a top ~60 prospect for Megill, he's cheap and he's effective... and you have 2 years left of him. I'd like to us just push a FEW more chips in just once.
  16. I know the Braves have struggled a bit, but I love the way they lock up their young players... and I don't think any of their struggles are the result of those extensions. When you look at them in the aggregate, they are providing a lot of surplus value... I think. Michael Harris struggled, but came on strong, Albies is so cheap, they can't complain. Murphy wasn't great, but Strider came back, Riley is a REALLY good player. And they sign them so they very rarely pay a player past 33-34. I do wonder if players like that will start to decline given Ronald Acuna Jr could probably be looking at an even bigger deal than Soto... but hell, he's incredibly rare. Anyway, I'm not proposing being THAT aggressive, but Made, Pena... again, if they continue on the trajectory they're on. Mis...maybe not 10 years, but 8.
  17. That or...even more punitive "luxury taxes?" You'll also need a floor. It'd be extremely helpful to see the books. Forbes estimates the Brewers at 21M net revenue in 2024. I'd just love to see say... the last 10 years. I don't believe the Brewers are raking it in, but it'd help to get a clearer picture. Back in 2007 the Pirates books were leaked and it showed they were making ~15M a year while spending ~45M and getting 70M in revenue sharing from the league. 2025 the estimate on the revenue sharing is "at least 230M," but there's SO much overhead that doesn't really tell you much. There are rumors... not a clue if there's anything behind them, but the Dodgers are looking to trade for Skubal and then extend him. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see them go 10 years 450M for Skubal and in the same off-season giving Tucker 10 and 275. I'm half rooting for it at this point. Just to hammer home how outrageous it is. Take pieces from the NBA and the NFL. We're too far down the road for an NFL type revenue sharing deal.. I think. So maybe you set the luxury tax at 280M, the floor at 140 and teams that are over that 280M, make it like the 2nd apron in the NBA. You make it harder to make trades, you can't sign FA's, you can only sign players already in the system(the "Bird rule). In reality, you'll probably have to make that number higher, more like 320... but SOMETHING has to be done. The Dodgers are going to be outspending the Brewers 6 to 1 with the luxury tax in the near future if MLB doesn't do something. Finally, if we could find a more...equitable way to divide revenue, it'd be nice to be able to go out and sign Bo Bichette or someone like that. Kyle Schwarber if we wanted, Peta Alanso. I don't think we'll be seeing a 200M payroll in 2028, but 150, 160 for a team consistently in the playoffs(and making ~20M a year if that's true) should be the goal. I don't think I would sign anyone this year, I'd focus any additional money on locking up our own players, but I'd be willing to bet all the people who act like 30 years old in Baseball is the same as being a 30 year old RB would be a little more open to signing players through age 33 or 34 and we wouldn't see arguments arguing we should trade Megill because he's 32 or that an extension buying out 3 years of Contreras would be SO bad because he'd be in his early 30s at the end of it.
  18. Yes, that's how the Mets will be using him. That wasn't the point you were making however. You projected him onto the Brewers and suggested we'd be happy(albeit for 35% of what he ACTUALLY got) with him citing his defensive versatility as a reason. These are two very different arguments. We're not running a 110M payroll, but that's beside the point. The point is... it's just not a good value. 2 years 13.75 on the Brewers, yeah, that'd be a pretty good deal. But another team that plays in the same league the Brewers do, they gave him 2/40M... to DH and play 1B. There's no way to argue that's a good contract. Now add on top the actual cost of the contract due to the Mets payroll and it's even worse.
  19. It's not two different industries, it's the same league. He's a ridiculous overpay... because he's a 1B who doesn't hit well enough to justify 20M a year. He signed that deal in 2023 coming off a 7.4 WAR season and it didn't start until the following year. He was also earlier on, pre-arbitration but a GG winner with a .297/.373/.466 line. I'd off 6/70 and a TO for ~22. Make it 10M SB to entice him. I hope they follow suit with Misiorowski... and that's probably it this year. Frelick... I love the way the guy plays, but not enough to commit more than 6/50 1 Team Option for ~18M. I'd also be down for an Uribe extension. 8/45M. Doesn't mean you have to keep him for 8 years, but we see how valuable relievers are. I also seem to have a higher tolerance for extensions for pitchers than others sinice many said they wouldn't give Mis more than Ashby or Peralta(I assume that would be adjusted for MLB salary inflation, but basically as a reliever).
  20. Yeah, they're going to walk more and hit less. They hit for a lot of power. 3TO type players. Defensively though... it seems, by all indications, Burke is the worst fielder among Wilken(who could play at 3rd), Fischer(also potentially 3B... but probably 1B) and Adams(same as the last two). Burke is more a 1B/DH. I am a big fan of Burke. I hope one of Fischer/Wilken can surprise and hold down 3B for a year... or we just sign Made for another 10 year deal and throw him out there.
  21. Every scouting report I've seen says Made stays at SS, worse case he moves over to 3B. Pena is the one they're talking about playing CF with his 70 speed, but not Made. I think we're getting a little too pessimistic on Pratt. Pratt was only 20 in AA. Walks a lot, low K rate. He's not Made, but I think he can be a... ~260/.340/.440 type hitter. Of course, I also don't think Ortiz is as bad of a hitter as last year suggests, but... setting that aside, I think Pratt will develop. He also had a ~.260 BABIP. We may be getting spoiled by 19-year-old freaks in AA. But even if you look at Chourio and Pratt in AA, Pratt better OBP and WC+ 107 to Chourio's 109. Give him a year in AAA and lets see how he does. I realize Fangraphs is down on him, but if he was in HiA like most prep picks who were 20, I'm thinking they'd be a bit higher on him.
  22. I like Burke a lot. I think they'll get Adams some reps in LF. He's a good enough athlete with a strong arm, he can play out there. Yelich will also have just 2 years left. We'll be close to the end of that deal. He'll be playing less. Maybe you just... stop playing him vs LHed pitchers? Or just try and limit him to ~100-115 games? I think you can fit them in there. I do notice that Megill isn't in the BP. He's under team control for 2027. They're not going to all be on the opening day roster. Made especially unless he's... signed to an extension like Chourio. They'd wait until end of may, early June. But he could be ready.
  23. 7th highest chase rate in Baseball, but doesn't miss bats? Hmmkay.
  24. There's been short yardage where they'd had Wooden, Brinson, Brooks...and before he got hurt Wyatt or when he's been active Stackhouse in. Anyway, here's a good breakdown of Brinson. He reminds me a little bit of Mike Daniels. Just...tough and plays the right way. Brings a little attitude. DL play is so underrated unless you're a Jevon Carter and getting after the passer, or Aaron Donald, but the down in and down out stuff they have to do is what makes the whole defense go. I'd still have DL #3 on our list of needs behind just general OL, CB after this year given the injury to Wyatt. One guy I'd look at in FA if he's cheap(TJ Slaton cheap) would be Teair Tart. He's been dominant vs the run in every game I've seen him play. With the cap issues, I would jump on 2/20M if he would take it. Maybe a void year or 3, but I'm guessing he'll get closer to 3/45. Either way, right now, this is what we need from guys on this team;
  25. I certainly didn't. Mears is a power arm who misses bats and is cheap. He also wore down a bit late last year and... what are you going to get? 2 more years, deal him after this year. What are you getting anyway? If he'd ended the season before a couple bad outings and had an ERA in the ~2.80 range, fine, but you're going to get a middling prospect so you have less depth?
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