2012 Free Agents- too early to talk?

[Crash2303]

I figure the Brewers will have around $20 million to spend this offseason (assuming we stay at our current payroll)- factoring a rough estimate at additions in arbitration raises, contract increases and the loss of free agent contracts.

This is who I would spend that on:

SS- Jose Reyes (maybe $8-10 million/year over 3-5 years)

CF- Grady Sizemore (maybe $5-6 million/year over 2-3 years)- Indians have a team option on him

Backup IF- Marco Scutaro or Jamey Carroll or Omar Infante ($2-3 million/year over 1-2 years)

Relief Pitcher- 2-3 million on someone for 1-2 years

Potential Lineup (not a weak out throughout- and better IF defense too)

STARTERS BACKUP STARTER RELIEF

SS- Reyes~ Scutaro, UI Greinke Axford-C

CF- Sizemore+ Morgan+, 4OF Gallardo Braddock+

2B- Weeks Marcum Kintzler

LF- Braun Boggs~, 5OF Wolf+ McClendon

RF- Hart Narveson+ Free Agent Signing

3B- McGehee Rivas * / Rogers* / Stetter+ / Parra+*

1B- Gamel+

C- LuCroy Kottaras

see 2012 Free Agents:

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2001/04/potential-free-agents-for-2012.html

[RockCoCougars]

I think Reyes will probably get twice that. I'd rather go after Furcal on a short term, 'make-good' type deal- he's had an injury-riddled season thus far, and might be available fairly cheap starting in a month or two.

[nate82]

Yuck Sizemore. He is not a CF anymore he can not stay healthy he is really a corner OF now which kills his value. I would rather just stick with Gomez and Morgan for CF than sign Sizemore who will more than likely be injured.

[logan82]

A combination of Morgan and Gomez should actually be pretty good in CF. SS and a backup middle infielder is what really needs to be addressed.

 

To answer the first question though, yes, it is to soon.

[Dollarbill13]

I agree that the salary estimate on Reyes is wayyyy too low. He'll end up getting at least $15M per season, if not more. In the interview with the Mets owner, he mentioned that Reyes is looking for Crawford type money (7 for $142M). I also think that we'll be fine with a combination of Gomez and Morgan in center. I'd much rather spend the money we save on Fielder by trying to sign Greinke and/or Marcum to an extension.

 

I could see us signing a FA SS like Furcal, but I think there will be a lot of interest in him and he'll end up going for more money than we're willing to pay. I'll guess that we'll end up with one of the no-hit, decent fielding shortstops. They aren't anything to get excited about but just about anything would be an upgrade over Betancourt and could probably be had for less money.

 

Targets on the free agent market will probably be limited to relief pitchers and role players for offense (bringing in a RH hitter to platoon w/ Gamel if needed, etc.)

[paul253]

I can't see a lot lot of turnover on next year's roster. Fielder will obviously be replaced by Gamel. Hawkins will probably be gone. Counsell will probably be gone. I am holding out hope that Schafer or Komatsu will be the every day CF with Morgan and Gomez as the backups. They'll need to sign a utility infielder (Adam Everette? Infante?) and then maybe someone with some pop who can play first and third base (Wes Helms? Eric Chavez?). Another reliever or two as well. Ideally Peralta will step up the rest of the season and be able to hold down the #4 or #5 spot in the rotation, allowing Wolf to be traded to save more money.

 

Just a side question. There will be a new CBA next season right? If there is a change to the draft compensation rules does that affect who we sign or trade?

[logan82]

Dollarbill13[/b] wrote:

[/b]Targets on the free agent market will probably be limited to relief pitchers and role players for offense (bringing in a RH hitter to platoon w/ Gamel if needed, etc.)

If Gamel would get platooned this board would explode.

[endaround]

Now a left handed 3B platoon option...

[bucksbeat]

I know I did not see someone throwing out Wes Helms as an option for the Brewers. Just throwing out the name again stings.

[JohnBriggs12]

bucksbeat]I know I did not see someone throwing out Wes Helms as an option for the Brewers. Just throwing out the name again stings.

I've thrown out bringing Troy Glaus and his career 1.176 Miller Park OPS out of retirement. He probably can't play much 3B any more but he'd give them a viable option if they wanted to protect Gamel against a tough lefty.

 

I wouldn't completely rule out Reyes if they could get him around $80-90 million over 5 years. Remember they offered Fielder more than that and would be replacing him with a minimum salary Gamel. A healthy Reyes might be a bigger upgrade over what's available at SS than Fielder is over Gamel.

[Dollarbill13]

If Gamel would get platooned this board would explode.

I agree but I don't think it's a bad idea to bring in a competent 1B in case Gamel doesn't pan out. Worst case situation is that they end up as a primary bench option.

[Warning Track Power]

I wouldn't completely rule out Reyes if they could get him around $80-90 million over 5 years. Remember they offered Fielder more than that and would be replacing him with a minimum salary Gamel. A healthy Reyes might be a bigger upgrade over what's available at SS than Fielder is over Gamel.

If the choice were Reyes and Gamel or Fielder, I think you take Reyes and Gamel. However, I think that if you were to sign Reyes, you also guarantee losing one or, more likely IMO, both of Marcum/Greinke. So the choice really becomes:

 

A. Reyes & Gamel

B. Greinke and/or Marcum AND Gamel

C. Fielder

 

I'll go Option B and sign a Hardy type for SS.

[Hate those Rodents]

We might be able to dangle Wolf or Narveson for a Yuniel Escobar type SS in the offseason. I am not advocating this necessarilly, but I do think Doug will get us a top 16ish SS one way or another in the offseason.

[endaround]

Why? The Brewers will still need pitchers next year. And yeah an Escobar type isn't that easy to find. Next year is actually a decent crop for FA shortstops. There's Reyes of course, but then you have Hardy and Furcal. Then you have Ramon Santiago and Scutaro before you get to defense only guys like McDonald and Wilson (maybe).

[paul253]

If we can trade Wolf for a SS that'd be ideal. You'd probably have to pay some of the salary, but you'd get most of Wolf's and all of Bentancourt's money off the books. Of course this implies we'll have a starter ready to step in for Wolf. So far, Rogers, Rivas and Peralta have been pretty disappointing.

[Hate those Rodents]

Why? The Brewers will still need pitchers next year. And yeah an Escobar type isn't that easy to find. Next year is actually a decent crop for FA shortstops. There's Reyes of course, but then you have Hardy and Furcal. Then you have Ramon Santiago and Scutaro before you get to defense only guys like McDonald and Wilson (maybe).

Nobody is saying we won't still have use for Wolf/Narveson. Filling +#%!%@ like at SS isn't always as easy as, "just sign this guy". Doug doesn't strike me as a guy looking to stopgap at SS this offseason. I think he'll obtain someone for 3-5 years that he'll look to as a starter. If we aren't able to sign someone at the Furcal/Hardy level, I fully expect a trade to fill the position rather than sign a Scutaro-type and live year by year. Whether that's the right move is up for debate, but you do have to give quality to get quality if the top free agents choose to take more money or choose a different location.

 

 

[logan82]

If Gamel would get platooned this board would explode.

I agree but I don't think it's a bad idea to bring in a competent 1B in case Gamel doesn't pan out. Worst case situation is that they end up as a primary bench option.

Worst case scenario is our manager doesn't play the young guy even though he is better.

[TheCrew07]

Doug doesn't strike me as a guy looking to stopgap at SS this offseason.

Melvin doesn't strike you as a guy who does stop gap measures? Seriously? That's all he's done since 2007.

[Hate those Rodents]

Gomez was a longterm idea. Choosing Escobar over Hardy was a long term idea. I believe after realizing Prince was going to leave, adding Greinke and Marcum with a plan on extending both was a long term idea. I am not saying he hasn't done stop gap moves. All his moves haven't been stop gaps, obviously. And I just don't think we'll go stop gap at SS next year.

[TheCrew07]

If Gomez was a long term idea, it was a horrible one because he had already established enough of a track record that it was obvious he wasn't going to hit.

 

Escobar obviously wasn't a long-term solution, it's silly to make that claim considering he was only the starter for 1 full season.

 

If you think the idea is to extend both Greinke and Marcum, that's fine, but I don't agree.

 

However I was speaking to FA... yes he signed Suppan to a 4 year deal, which was horrible, but everyone else was a temporary solution.

 

Clearly there hasn't been a long term plan in place, just patching the roster year in and year out. If the long term plan was always to trade 2 MLB caliber SSs in 3 years, than that plan was also a terrible plan.

 

The idea for a small market team like Milwaukee should be to buy as many wins at a discounted rate as possible. There's nothing "discounted" about free agent pitching, especially upper tier FA pitching. There's more value in hitters, as they don't cost as much and contribute on a daily basis, but we aren't getting any kind of hometown discount with Greinke or Marcum... we aren't even the home town.

[dadofandrew]

Furcal or Infante on a one year deal with an option makes sense to me, with no SS in AA/AAA. A RH bat to protect Gamel at 1B is too easy. More than likely, a utility INF to replace Counsell, and to provide insurance for the SS that's brought in, Scooter or Carroll.

[GAME05]

my own speculation says that any money remaining after this season is spent on extending the contract of Greinke and/or Marcum. nobody in AAA right now compares, and it seems like that would be top priority. if only one, we'd be left with about $10M to spend, which says stopgap additions.

 

i'd enjoy seeing Adam Everett as a defensive replacement at SS behind Betancourt, and then you'd have to figure a bullpen guy will be added (one always is).

 

i just don't see much happening with this team in the coming offseason beyond trying to keep/extend the players we have. the only surprise i could see coming is if we somehow traded for a big bat/pitcher for a playoff push, and then if we went deep into those playoffs, making an effort to resign the guy we traded for. but the bench, especially, will be a way bigger hole to fill than replacing Morgan and Gomez at CF, and i definitely don't see that happening.

 

i don't have any dreams of Reyes coming our way, though it does make me smile. our whole lineup would be lightening fast, and i've always wanted to see how Weeks would do out of the leadoff spot and into the 5 or 6 spot in the order.

[MNBrew]

It's easy to suggest dumping Wolf and his $10M salary next year, but I'm not sure we've got great #4 starter options busting their way onto the roster.

 

Narveson up to #4 and ???? as #5 either means a crapshoot acquisition or Estrada at #5 and even less depth in the bullpen again. I'll take our current situation and not worry too much about next year.

 

That said, though, with all the good young OFs in the system (Schafer, Komatsu, Gindl), plus Morgan & maybe Gomez still left on the 25-man, I don't think bringing someone else in to play CF is a long-term issue unless 4 of those 5 guys are down with injuries.

[COBrewerfan]

Just find a way to lock up Marcum and/or Greinke and then see where we are. I am certainly not signing Reyes and not worrying about CF either. Will look at the other options at SS and see what comes at a reasonable cost. But that is only after we have the pitching setup for the next few years.

[paul253]

I think we need to spend all available money on Marcum and Greinke. As long as we have them + Gallardo, I can't see this ever being a bad team. Offensively, most of your players are signed long term and the ones that aren't we have decent replacements for in Gamel, Green, Gindl, Schafer and Komatsu. Shortstop is obviously the exception but I think you could find a decent free agent. I'm more concerned about someone who plays solid defense and can make contact with the ball offensively. I honestly can't see a whole lot of options that would be worse than Betancourt.