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Competitive Balance Lottery


Today is the annual Competitive Balance Lottery. The picks can be traded during the season, so teams like the Cardinals, Pirates, or Royals could use their pick to sweeten a trade deadline package. Reminder, the first six teams selected are given an additional pick following the first round of next year’s draft (Comp Round A) and the remaining teams are then drawn for six additional slots following the second round (Comp Round B).

 

Below are the teams and their chances of winning that top lottery pick:

 

Diamondbacks 18.2%

Rockies 16.5%

Reds 9.5%

Marlins 8.9%

Padres 8.9%

Rays 8.9%

Brewers 6.6%

Indians 5.4%

A’s 4.5%

Pirates 4.5%

Royals 4.2%

Cardinals 3.9%

 

More information on this year's draft lottery can be found in this MLB.com LINK.

 

Someone correct me if I am wrong, but I believe these have been the Brewers Competitive Balance selections so far since the system began in 2013:

 

2013 - Tucker Neuhaus (#72 selection / Comp Rd B)

2014 - Jake Gatewood (#41 selection / Comp Rd A)

2015 - Nathan Kirby (#40 selection / Comp Rd A)

Not just “at Night” anymore.
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I think it is reasonably clear that that extra high pick is perhaps even more valuable then people had imagined given the way in which teams are using the bonus pool system. It certainly looks that the only way for teams to be able to take some of these huge overslot guys (Cameron for example) is to have that extra pick to be able to go well under slot. There's just not enough money in the middle rounds to save enough on seniors.
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igor67, it didn't take agents long at all to learn how to play this system. Baseball has left WAY too much leverage in the hands of teenagers, allowing their reps to push for "take it or leave it" bonuses, using college programs as patsies.

 

I hate it, and I hope they fix it, but unless and until they do, you're exactly right. The more cash you've got to sign guys with, the more you're able to, "play the game." An extra pick is more money, not just a chance to get another guy.

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That maybe true, but to me it does seem like with slotting things have generally improved. It seems like most juniors sign, because the reality is that they have little leverage given what college seniors are signing for these days, so about the only play left is at the high school level. I'm OK with where the draft system is at and I'd much rather see effort spent on paying minor leaguers a fair wage.
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That maybe true, but to me it does seem like with slotting things have generally improved. It seems like most juniors sign, because the reality is that they have little leverage given what college seniors are signing for these days, so about the only play left is at the high school level. I'm OK with where the draft system is at and I'd much rather see effort spent on paying minor leaguers a fair wage.

 

Why not both? Make players opt into the draft to take their leverage away and reduce the scouting burden, and do the logical of thing of paying MiLB players a livable wage during the season?

 

I'm not sure why it has to be one or the other.

"You can discover more about a person in an hour of play than in a year of conversation."

- Plato

"Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools, because they have to say something."

- Plato

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Surely the Pirates would give the Brewers their pick for Aramis Ramirez, right? Right?

 

I'd take that in a heartbeat.

"You can discover more about a person in an hour of play than in a year of conversation."

- Plato

"Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools, because they have to say something."

- Plato

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Sucks getting a Round B pick. Four years of these and we've gotten two in Round A and two in Round B and I don't think we've ever been higher than the 4th selection in either round.
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I was going to look this up later but why being the smallest were the Brewers odds so low? I figured it had to do something with payroll but if someone knows that would be awesome.

"You can discover more about a person in an hour of play than in a year of conversation."

- Plato

"Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools, because they have to say something."

- Plato

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I was going to look this up later but why being the smallest were the Brewers odds so low? I figured it had to do something with payroll but if someone knows that would be awesome.

 

Just looking at the odds, it just looks like they go by record the previous year.

 

Diamondbacks 64-98 - 18.2%

Rockies 66-96 - 16.5%

Reds 76-86 - 9.5%

Marlins, Padres and Rays 77-85 - 8.9%

Brewers 82-80 - 6.6%

Indians 85-77 - 5.4%

A's and Pirates 88-74 - 4.5%

Royals 89-73 - 4.2%

Cardinals 90-72 - 3.9%

 

I have no idea how they come up with the percentage of each team getting a pick though.

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Nothing sucks about this - the Brewers have a draft pick they didn't have a day ago - YAY!

 

Sure, sooner is better, but the Brewers haven't been shut out in this thing yet, when that happens, then we'll have something negative to discuss.

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I was going to look this up later but why being the smallest were the Brewers odds so low? I figured it had to do something with payroll but if someone knows that would be awesome.

 

It is based on the teams winning percentage the year before.

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/26059392/

 

 

 

 

 

Just looking at the odds, it just looks like they go by record the previous year.

 

Diamondbacks 64-98 - 18.2%

Rockies 66-96 - 16.5%

Reds 76-86 - 9.5%

Marlins, Padres and Rays 77-85 - 8.9%

Brewers 82-80 - 6.6%

Indians 85-77 - 5.4%

A's and Pirates 88-74 - 4.5%

Royals 89-73 - 4.2%

Cardinals 90-72 - 3.9%

 

I have no idea how they come up with the percentage of each team getting a pick though.

 

Those percentages are for getting the 1st pick it looks to be similar to how the NBA does it by giving each team a number of ping pong balls. Though the percentages only adds up to about 77%.

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Those percentages are for getting the 1st pick it looks to be similar to how the NBA does it by giving each team a number of ping pong balls. Though the percentages only adds up to about 77%.

 

I should have added that those percentages were the chances for getting a Round A pick.

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It's not that I think draft changes are mutually exclusive to changes in the minors, but a simple matter of prioritizing what change I'd value the most. Those types of large scale changes almost never happen all at once, so it makes sense to prioritize.
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igor67, it didn't take agents long at all to learn how to play this system. Baseball has left WAY too much leverage in the hands of teenagers, allowing their reps to push for "take it or leave it" bonuses, using college programs as patsies.

 

I hate it, and I hope they fix it, but unless and until they do, you're exactly right. The more cash you've got to sign guys with, the more you're able to, "play the game." An extra pick is more money, not just a chance to get another guy.

 

I agree. I liked the pre-2013 draft system (and free-agent compensation set-up) much better as well.

 

That said... the competitive balance round is a very good idea, IMO.

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Brewer Fanatic Contributor

I still think MLB should look at the NFL for FA compensation. You compensate a team's net changes instead of each individual change. Thus, a team that loses big and signs big gains nothing.

 

But the competitive balance is a nice way to help out the small market teams. It will be interesting in 3-4 years to see the impact of these players.

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  • 3 weeks later...
I was going to look this up later but why being the smallest were the Brewers odds so low? I figured it had to do something with payroll but if someone knows that would be awesome.

 

It is based on the teams winning percentage the year before.

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/26059392/

 

 

 

 

 

Just looking at the odds, it just looks like they go by record the previous year.

 

Diamondbacks 64-98 - 18.2%

Rockies 66-96 - 16.5%

Reds 76-86 - 9.5%

Marlins, Padres and Rays 77-85 - 8.9%

Brewers 82-80 - 6.6%

Indians 85-77 - 5.4%

A's and Pirates 88-74 - 4.5%

Royals 89-73 - 4.2%

Cardinals 90-72 - 3.9%

 

I have no idea how they come up with the percentage of each team getting a pick though.

 

Those percentages are for getting the 1st pick it looks to be similar to how the NBA does it by giving each team a number of ping pong balls. Though the percentages only adds up to about 77%.

 

 

Multiple teams with equal records at same pct chance. So 2@4.5 equal 9 3 at 8.9 equal 26.7 Your 100% figured out.

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