What's Next

[DocLuna7]

I have seen several posters bring up Stroman.... he would be my ideal pick up but does anyone have any idea what Toronto would expect back for him if he’s even available at all?

[jmeks23]

The thing about those projections is; if they end up being accurate, I'm not sure the Brewers compete regardless of adding a TOR pitcher. If your 2 (Nelson) is still almost a 4ERA and all the others are over 4, I can't see this team competing for much more than the second wild card.

[fondybrewfan]

Is there a lottery for opening day tickets anymore? The brewers website has a page up for a 2017 lottery but nothing for this year. Never been to opening day and would love to go but I am not going to get a season ticket package.

[brewcrewdue80]

People who want 2 baffle me. We add 1 and Nelson comes back well we possibly watch as Woodruff burnes and ortiz start in CS waiting for chacin to move along. The part of this offseason that has me most excited is tgat we haven't burned a single elite arm. Yamamoto Ponce Murphy Lemons Kodi Bickford level sure 1. Ortiz woodruff burnes peralta all hanging tough. It almost feels as if our GM is trying to be TB or something.

We have depth in the rotation, but we definitely need better arms at the top of the rotation. I posted this in another thread, but here's what the ZiPS projections look like for our pitchers vs. the ones we're talking about:

 

[pre]Player ERA FIP K/9 BB/9 ERA+

Nelson 3.74 3.79 9.1 3.1 115

Davies 4.05 4.06 6.8 2.6 108

Woodruff 4.17 4.17 8.2 3.2 103

Anderson 4.32 4.48 7.9 2.9 100

Suter 4.41 4.41 7.2 2.6 98

Chacin 4.77 4.68 7.5 3.8 90

 

Player ERA FIP K/9 BB/9 ERA+

Archer 3.27 3.10 10.6 2.7 125

Stroman 3.54 3.47 7.8 2.5 121

Salazar 3.60 3.48 11.2 3.5 117

Duffy 3.78 3.86 8.2 2.5 112

 

Player ERA FIP K/9 BB/9 ERA+

Darvish 3.24 3.22 11.0 2.7 127

Arrieta 3.53 4.16 8.7 2.9 123 ('17 numbers, '18 ZiPS not available yet)

Cobb 3.77 4.00 6.7 2.3 108

Lynn 3.82 4.25 7.7 3.7 106[/pre]

 

If we can grab two of those arms to put at the top of the rotation it'd be a huge upgrade, especially for a potential postseason run. That may be getting ahead of ourselves a bit, but that's the point of all this right? If the prospects are pushing their way onto the roster, that's great and we have a depth of quality arms to deal to replenish the farm or other areas (just as we've created with the outfield). But right now we don't have a 1-2-3 punch that I would feel good going into the playoffs with. I would be surprised if we actually landed two more pitchers, but I can definitely see where some see the need is coming from.

 

Can you also add the current state of the Cubs rotation for comparison? Just to see how high these projections are.

[TJseven7]

People who want 2 baffle me. We add 1 and Nelson comes back well we possibly watch as Woodruff burnes and ortiz start in CS waiting for chacin to move along. The part of this offseason that has me most excited is tgat we haven't burned a single elite arm. Yamamoto Ponce Murphy Lemons Kodi Bickford level sure 1. Ortiz woodruff burnes peralta all hanging tough. It almost feels as if our GM is trying to be TB or something.

We have depth in the rotation, but we definitely need better arms at the top of the rotation. I posted this in another thread, but here's what the ZiPS projections look like for our pitchers vs. the ones we're talking about:

 

[pre]Player ERA FIP K/9 BB/9 ERA+

Nelson 3.74 3.79 9.1 3.1 115

Davies 4.05 4.06 6.8 2.6 108

Woodruff 4.17 4.17 8.2 3.2 103

Anderson 4.32 4.48 7.9 2.9 100

Suter 4.41 4.41 7.2 2.6 98

Chacin 4.77 4.68 7.5 3.8 90

 

Player ERA FIP K/9 BB/9 ERA+

Archer 3.27 3.10 10.6 2.7 125

Stroman 3.54 3.47 7.8 2.5 121

Salazar 3.60 3.48 11.2 3.5 117

Duffy 3.78 3.86 8.2 2.5 112

 

Player ERA FIP K/9 BB/9 ERA+

Darvish 3.24 3.22 11.0 2.7 127

Arrieta 3.53 4.16 8.7 2.9 123 ('17 numbers, '18 ZiPS not available yet)

Cobb 3.77 4.00 6.7 2.3 108

Lynn 3.82 4.25 7.7 3.7 106[/pre]

 

If we can grab two of those arms to put at the top of the rotation it'd be a huge upgrade, especially for a potential postseason run. That may be getting ahead of ourselves a bit, but that's the point of all this right? If the prospects are pushing their way onto the roster, that's great and we have a depth of quality arms to deal to replenish the farm or other areas (just as we've created with the outfield). But right now we don't have a 1-2-3 punch that I would feel good going into the playoffs with. I would be surprised if we actually landed two more pitchers, but I can definitely see where some see the need is coming from.

 

But thats also 25 million on the payroll and in the case of stroman archer scorched earth on our farm. Duffy would be too cap expebsive to get and add a fa. Salazar is the only one tgat looks workable with our cap that wouldn't kill our farm but it also likely rips Santana from the 3 hole which negates a lot of the gain we just made.

 

As someone just stated. If these projections are accurate we are boned anyway.

[MrTPlush]

I heard MLB radio said we were not in in Darvish any longer this morning. Just throwing that out there.

 

Already reported by brewerfan’s own HighHeat!

 

How could I forget.

[pacopete4]

but it also likely rips Santana from the 3 hole which negates a lot of the gain we just made.

 

Santana hasn't been and most likely will not be our 3-hole.

[Bench Coach 5]

I have a feeling that we won't hear about any other possible moves until after the Cain presser at 2PM. Good thing the weekend is coming so I can just refresh Brewerfan.net and twitter. LOL

[TJseven7]

but it also likely rips Santana from the 3 hole which negates a lot of the gain we just made.

 

Santana hasn't been and most likely will not be our 3-hole.

 

Yeah cuz he was 2 for a stretch. 1 for a stretch. Wont be there due to cain or yelich now. You want him behind braun/thames and shaw?

 

206 ab 1-2-3

289 ab 5th

 

Best numbers 2 hole then 5 hole.

[brewerfan82]

Can you also add the current state of the Cubs rotation for comparison? Just to see how high these projections are.

Would love to, but they happen to be one of like 5 teams that ZiPS hasn't been released for yet.

[tmwiese55]

Is there a lottery for opening day tickets anymore? The brewers website has a page up for a 2017 lottery but nothing for this year. Never been to opening day and would love to go but I am not going to get a season ticket package.

 

I don't think there was the last couple years. They actually sent out emails a few weeks before the last few years saying opening day tickets are still open for sail. So, I had my two with my package but then could buy basically as many as I wanted individually. That might change this year though after all this

[mlloyd10]

there is a lottery - I always get an email.

[pacopete4]

but it also likely rips Santana from the 3 hole which negates a lot of the gain we just made.

 

Santana hasn't been and most likely will not be our 3-hole.

 

Yeah cuz he was 2 for a stretch. 1 for a stretch. Wont be there due to cain or yelich now. You want him behind braun/thames and shaw?

 

206 ab 1-2-3

289 ab 5th

 

Best numbers 2 hole then 5 hole.

 

I don't see them messing around with where Braun hits. You can make all the arguments you want to but when Braun is in there, he's been in the 3-hole pretty much as a given. Santana may get in the 2-hole though. Maybe. Doubtful he's still here though.

[tmwiese55]

I suppose maybe it's different for non season package holders of all kinds and maybe the lottery was still in place in case they did have more demand, but I bet anyone who asked last year got them since the last couple years they were still trying to sell just before the game, fwiw. This year that looks unlikely.

 

I actually decided to not re-up my package this year due to at the time of decision planning on spending a good chunk of money on the CFB playoffs, kind of regretting it now but of course can still do it. I just wouldn't get the early buyer discount.

[TJseven7]

"I don't see them messing around with where Braun hits. You can make all the arguments you want to but when Braun is in there, he's been in the 3-hole pretty much as a given. Santana may get in the 2-hole though. Maybe. Doubtful he's still here though."

 

A 5 pack on offense hinging on Brauns health and Thames Aguilar is a great way to make a push and fail.

[pacopete4]

"I don't see them messing around with where Braun hits. You can make all the arguments you want to but when Braun is in there, he's been in the 3-hole pretty much as a given. Santana may get in the 2-hole though. Maybe. Doubtful he's still here though."

 

A 5 pack on offense hinging on Brauns health and Thames Aguilar is a great way to make a push and fail.

 

Huh? You act as though Thames/Aguilar were a bad combo last season. Does someone have to remind you of what they produced? And Braun, well he's still the best hitter on the team if he's healthy, so yeah, they will probably do everything they can to center the offense around him. By including all these good, quality players, he and Shaw and Santana should'nt have to try to carry the offense.

[superfly]

I'm really warming to the Clevinger idea from Cleveland...forgot all about him. Hopefully they go that route with his massive control.

[beekay414]

Huh? You act as though Thames/Aguilar were a bad combo last season. Does someone have to remind you of what they produced?

 

Yep. We got 3 fWAR out of the duo last year. Likely won't happen again but I can easily see it being in the 1.5-2 fWAR range again this year (basically taking away Thames' hot start worth of fWAR).

[SRB]

Another reason Santana to Cleveland makes sense: Brantley and Chisenahall are both free agents after this season. Santana is a multi-year piece for them.

[82brewcrew82]

Huh? You act as though Thames/Aguilar were a bad combo last season. Does someone have to remind you of what they produced?

 

Yep. We got 3 fWAR out of the duo last year. Likely won't happen again but I can easily see it being in the 1.5-2 fWAR range again this year (basically taking away Thames' hot start worth of fWAR).

Do we get to take away an equally long not-so-hot period too then? You can't cherry pick.

[beekay414]

Huh? You act as though Thames/Aguilar were a bad combo last season. Does someone have to remind you of what they produced?

 

Yep. We got 3 fWAR out of the duo last year. Likely won't happen again but I can easily see it being in the 1.5-2 fWAR range again this year (basically taking away Thames' hot start worth of fWAR).

Do we get to take away an equally long not-so-hot period too then? You can't cherry pick.

 

I wasn't cherry picking. I was playing it safe. I'm in support of the platoon. Getting 3 fWAR out of a roughly $5 Million investment in 2017 is nothing to sneeze at. Even if they don't do that again, they are a fairly safe bet for the range I pointed out. Nothing negative intended in the post lol.

[Montezuma]

If David Stearns repeats his brief and productive dealings, I am suspecting he is considering dealing for a pitcher or even better, restocking the minor leagues with valuable/future tradeable prospects. After all, they are just unproven prospects that other needy organizations deem valuable. Allow them to take the risk and we reap the rewards of pieces like Christian Yelich.

[TJseven7]

"I don't see them messing around with where Braun hits. You can make all the arguments you want to but when Braun is in there, he's been in the 3-hole pretty much as a given. Santana may get in the 2-hole though. Maybe. Doubtful he's still here though."

 

A 5 pack on offense hinging on Brauns health and Thames Aguilar is a great way to make a push and fail.

 

Huh? You act as though Thames/Aguilar were a bad combo last season. Does someone have to remind you of what they produced? And Braun, well he's still the best hitter on the team if he's healthy, so yeah, they will probably do everything they can to center the offense around him. By including all these good, quality players, he and Shaw and Santana should'nt have to try to carry the offense.

 

And how would santana carry the offense when you intend to move him? This yeah when healthy Braun stuff is great and all but he wasn't 2016 braun all of 2017 or 2014. So that's a concern. 2 "healthy" braun year in the 4 since the susp year. 2 year in 4 where he out-produced last years santana. When its "not playing" Braun your 5 pack falls to 4... and the other 4 of villar/sogard, phillips/broxton, pina/vogt, arcia are pretty hard to count on for anything impactful. *** my apologies *** he had 2 of 4. Two 3.8s vs santanas 3.5. Ones 33 and the other 25.

 

Im not complaining about the 1b platoon being a poor value. I'm saying it isnt what you want as your 4th best option. And your "best" option is fragile and has been elite 1 time since he got busted.

[Crash2303]

Hot Take

If we get a TOR through FA signing or Santana trade package- consider us title contenders…in fact, why not both?

[wallus]

Hot Take

If we get a TOR through FA signing or Santana trade package- consider us title contenders…in fact, why not both?

 

We will need more than that to be title contenders. I am hoping for playoffs.