Aaron Nola - contract extension [4 yrs $45mm guaranteed, club option for 5th yr]

[KeithStone53151]

 

I thought this was noteworthy as a bit of a benchmark for pitching value. The deal includes $2 million signing bonus and salaries of $4M, $8M, $11.75M, and $15M. There is a club option for $16M with a $4.25M buyout. This covers 3 arbitration years and 1 year of free agency...potentially 2 years with the club option.

 

If Nola continues pitching himself into the top 10 of cy young voting every year for 4 years, he left a lot of money on the table...but this is a pretty nice guarantee for a 25 year old. He'll also be able to hit free agency again at age 31.

[3and2Fastball]

This is a great deal for the Phillies. Nola was incredible last year. The numbers he put up, considering his home ballpark & the defense behind him, were beyond elite.

[KeithStone53151]

I don't think it's THAT great a deal for the Phillies. Aside from having a Degrom caliber season, maybe Nola could have gotten 4-5 million more overall in arbitration and then $25 million per year in FA. So he's taking a $45 million guarantee, which will likely be worth $57 million with the option...versus risking a best case scenario of maybe $80 million max($30 million in arbitration and $50 million in his 2 FA years. If I'm Nola, I do this all day every day. That guarantee sets you and your kids for life no matter what happens on the diamond.

[BrewFan130]

I viewed this deal as Nola on the winning side of this deal. He still has 3 years of team control/arbitration years left with the Phillies

[brooks_quichenick]

I think Nola saw the writing on the wall with how terrible Free Agency has been the last 2 years and decided to take some guaranteed money even though it's way under value for him.

[tmwiese55]

Yup, players are going to start doing this more and more. Realizing the numbers on this set them up beyond anything they could've hoped when they were 15 years old and getting serious about it. Why risk the injury and FA issues of now when basically getting 50 mil or 80 mil really won't change your life at all. You're set no matter what. If I'm a pitcher I put 40 mil in the bank as soon as possible with how easily Tommy John can happen

[jerichoholicninja]

Yup, players are going to start doing this more and more. Realizing the numbers on this set them up beyond anything they could've hoped when they were 15 years old and getting serious about it. Why risk the injury and FA issues of now when basically getting 50 mil or 80 mil really won't change your life at all. You're set no matter what. If I'm a pitcher I put 40 mil in the bank as soon as possible with how easily Tommy John can happen

 

[sarcasm]Something, something greedy owners...[/sarcasm]

[3and2Fastball]

It really seems like a win-win, to me, for both Nola & the Phillies. Nola gets set for life financially. The Phillies lock up one of the best pitching talents in Baseball for the 1st 2 years of what would have been his free agency. There is risk on both sides, but that is true in almost any contract. And if Nola turns out to be one of the very best, those numbers are gonna seem like bargains in the last 2 years

[brooks_quichenick]

Yup, players are going to start doing this more and more. Realizing the numbers on this set them up beyond anything they could've hoped when they were 15 years old and getting serious about it. Why risk the injury and FA issues of now when basically getting 50 mil or 80 mil really won't change your life at all. You're set no matter what. If I'm a pitcher I put 40 mil in the bank as soon as possible with how easily Tommy John can happen

 

[sarcasm]Something, something greedy owners...[/sarcasm]

 

Well when the player's strike inevitably happens, I know who's side I'll be on, and it certainly won't be the billionaires sitting in their owner's box collecting record revenues.

[tmwiese55]

Yup, under the current system this is what they have to do if they wanna be safe/smart. I generally agree the system needs to be changed though so they're not in this predicament. That said, as I'm thinking about remember the trade off is guaranteed money, that is a huge huge perk on the players side that is now just taken for granted. The minute you sign that deal it's all yours, can't cut you, lose it due to injury etc. From the team's perspective, hand out huge guaranteed deals to everyone, tommy john/ACLs etc and you're just paying out tens of millions for nothing. And then throw in old age, regression, players naturally relaxing once set for life.

[topper09er]

Yup, players are going to start doing this more and more. Realizing the numbers on this set them up beyond anything they could've hoped when they were 15 years old and getting serious about it. Why risk the injury and FA issues of now when basically getting 50 mil or 80 mil really won't change your life at all. You're set no matter what. If I'm a pitcher I put 40 mil in the bank as soon as possible with how easily Tommy John can happen

 

[sarcasm]Something, something greedy owners...[/sarcasm]

 

Well when the player's strike inevitably happens, I know who's side I'll be on, and it certainly won't be the billionaires sitting in their owner's box collecting record revenues.

 

So you side with Albert Pujols being paid $26,000,000 in 2017 to put up -1.8 WAR

[brooks_quichenick]

 

[sarcasm]Something, something greedy owners...[/sarcasm]

 

Well when the player's strike inevitably happens, I know who's side I'll be on, and it certainly won't be the billionaires sitting in their owner's box collecting record revenues.

 

So you side with Albert Pujols being paid $26,000,000 in 2017 to put up -1.8 WAR

 

Yes because free agency is the only way for the players to recoup the earnings that are withheld/stolen from them in their prime years. That 2017 salary is simply making up for his laughably low salaries during extraordinarily productive seasons.

 

Using Pujols as an example:

 

2001 - $200,000 salary while putting up 6.6 bWAR, winning ROY, coming in 4th in MVP voting, making the AS team, and winning the Silver Slugger

2002 - $600,000 salary, 5.5 bWAR, 2nd in MVP voting

2003 - $900,000 salary, 8.7 bWAR, 2nd in MVP voting, All Star, Silver Slugger winner

 

He then puts together 7 straight years with a WAR over 8, including a career high 9.7 WAR season in 2009 when he was making ~$14.5 million, still vastly underpaid.

 

The way the system is set up robs players of their true worth when they are at their best, and free agency allows them to recoup that value later in their career after they've gotten past their arb years. The understanding was that ownership would be "overpaying" for free agents because they were extremely underpaying them in their years of team control/arbitration. Now baseball front offices have gotten "smarter" by not holding up their end of the bargain.

 

So when this MLBPA strike eventually happens, I'll be rooting for the players, the guys who actually perform on the field for us for 162 games.

[Ennder]

Nola's season had a ton of luck involved, this deal seems pretty fair. ERA rarely matches pitchers actual talent and in this case it is making him look way better than he was.

[trwi7]

How did he have a ton of luck? He was 14th in K% among starters, 25th in BB%, HR/FB wasn't so low that you would think that he's going to give up a ton of homers in the coming years, he had a horrific defense behind him, was 2nd among starters in the amount of hard contact generated against and 6th in soft contact.

 

Does he have a 2.37 ERA this year? Probably not but there was nothing that says he was extremely lucky or anything less than say a top 15-20 pitcher.

[homer]

Yeah his BABIP was pretty low but he still K'd a lot of guys. His era might go up to 3 or something but he's darn good...and only 25.

[OnTheBlack]

So you side with Albert Pujols being paid $26,000,000 in 2017 to put up -1.8 WAR

 

 

 

This is akin to denying climate change because it's cold where you are in one particular area of the country.

 

I'll be on the side of the players simply because their share of the profits are much lower than other professional sports leagues. The Billionaires as it currently stands are taking in a larger portion of the profits than I believe even they hoped for.

 

The reason may well be that teams are smarter(or at least in part), but that doesn't mean that there shouldn't be better ways to more equitably distribute the revenue.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

The 5th year option probably should’ve been guaranteed to make it 5 years and $60 million +/- to make it really fair. But this still seems mostly fair for both sides.

[OnTheBlack]

I think Nola saw the writing on the wall with how terrible Free Agency has been the last 2 years and decided to take some guaranteed money even though it's way under value for him.

 

 

I would hope that wouldn't be the case. A lot is likely going to change between now and then. I'm guessing he took this just because he plays maybe the one position in sports where you're more likely than not to suffer a injury that jeopardizes your career and you might as well cash, secure your future and your families and then still be young enough if you're as good as it looks like he can be to earn much more AAV as a FA.

 

3 years from now the labor stoppage should be done and they should figure out a way to make the players and owners agree to a new structure.

[bill hAll Star]

 

Well when the player's strike inevitably happens, I know who's side I'll be on, and it certainly won't be the billionaires sitting in their owner's box collecting record revenues.

 

So you side with Albert Pujols being paid $26,000,000 in 2017 to put up -1.8 WAR

 

Yes because free agency is the only way for the players to recoup the earnings that are withheld/stolen from them in their prime years. That 2017 salary is simply making up for his laughably low salaries during extraordinarily productive seasons.

 

Using Pujols as an example:

 

2001 - $200,000 salary while putting up 6.6 bWAR, winning ROY, coming in 4th in MVP voting, making the AS team, and winning the Silver Slugger

2002 - $600,000 salary, 5.5 bWAR, 2nd in MVP voting

2003 - $900,000 salary, 8.7 bWAR, 2nd in MVP voting, All Star, Silver Slugger winner

 

He then puts together 7 straight years with a WAR over 8, including a career high 9.7 WAR season in 2009 when he was making ~$14.5 million, still vastly underpaid.

 

The way the system is set up robs players of their true worth when they are at their best, and free agency allows them to recoup that value later in their career after they've gotten past their arb years. The understanding was that ownership would be "overpaying" for free agents because they were extremely underpaying them in their years of team control/arbitration. Now baseball front offices have gotten "smarter" by not holding up their end of the bargain.

 

So when this MLBPA strike eventually happens, I'll be rooting for the players, the guys who actually perform on the field for us for 162 games.

 

Part of this is yet again the greedy owners at play but I'm very nervous about what they're going to do to remedy this.

 

Shorten team control and we'll have the Yankees holding 5-6 prime superstars to eternity instead of overpaying some washed up players while they have a few superstars.

 

There is probably a good way to do it where they can allow the players to get paid after 2-3 years of control and keep them from flocking or forcing the cheaper owners to trade them given high salary...but I'm not confident it'll be done right.

 

Another issue: How would you handle/have reacted to Domingo Santana's salary spiking from $1 million to $8 million after 2017?

[Harold Hutchison]

Part of this is yet again the greedy owners at play but I'm very nervous about what they're going to do to remedy this.

 

Shorten team control and we'll have the Yankees holding 5-6 prime superstars to eternity instead of overpaying some washed up players while they have a few superstars.

 

There is probably a good way to do it where they can allow the players to get paid after 2-3 years of control and keep them from flocking or forcing the cheaper owners to trade them given high salary...but I'm not confident it'll be done right.

 

Another issue: How would you handle/have reacted to Domingo Santana's salary spiking from $1 million to $8 million after 2017?

 

This.

 

The Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, Cubs, White Sox, Mets, Giants, and Mariners would pretty much hand the World Series off between them. Nine teams out of thirty. That ain't right.

[Roderick]

 

Part of this is yet again the greedy owners at play but I'm very nervous about what they're going to do to remedy this.

 

 

If you give a mouse a cookie.....

 

To be fair you need a salary cap.

 

If you have a cap you need a salary floor to keep the Marlins spending money (to keep total MLB player pay to inflationary increase over prior year).

 

You can't have a salary floor without revenue sharing, as some teams would not be able to afford what the floor would need to be (has to be somewhat close to the ceiling).

 

You can't have revenue sharing because there is no way the Dodgers, Yankees etc let the league cut into their juicy local tv contract.

 

The only thing I can think of is that there would have to be some catalyst that would shakeup enough teams to vote to make local tv contracts split evenly (think lawsuits on top of lawsuits).

 

That said, they would probably have to put that type of transition out twenty years from whenever they get to it.

 

I thought Selig had the right idea that the internet would be split evenly, but the product moving to the internet hasn't happened - it has stayed on FSN, etc.

[tmwiese55]

Agree, the changes we're all saying are right for the players to address the current situation will destroy small markets chances of winning. Along with it you almost have to come up with a cap and revenus sharing system similar to the NBA or NFL.

[CheezWizHed]

There is already a thread about collusion, players salaries and salary caps. Multiple actually.

 

Please limit the discussion here to Nola and his extension.