2021 Brewers Optimism Thread

[brewtank34]

I'm optimistic that Yelich will be coming back from his COVID break with a vengeance. I'm optimistic that Yelich will not be an MVP caliber Yelich, but an All-Star caliber Yelich when he returns.

[PeaveyFury]

MLB win leaders:

San Fran 66

Brewers (and others) 64

 

Not sure this is a cause for optimism!! In theory, wouldn't it be best if the Brewers finished with the 2nd most wins in the NL? Hypothetically, let the Giants play the winner of the wild card game between LAD and SD, and the Brewers can play the Mets/Braves NL East winner.

 

This is correct- at this point, we'd probably prefer to be the 2. Basically guarantees that two of LAD/SD/SF are out before we would even play them.

[igor67]

I'd actually be curious to see how big of an impact that is having on our World Series odds calculations. Being number 2 and getting homefield for the first round, and realistically with such strong wildcards it becomes a coinflip if we'd have homefield in round 2.

[sveumrules]

I'd actually be curious to see how big of an impact that is having on our World Series odds calculations. Being number 2 and getting homefield for the first round, and realistically with such strong wildcards it becomes a coinflip if we'd have homefield in round 2.

 

Current World Series Odds are...

 

PECOTA: 11% (3rd) | 538: 10% (3rd) | FanGraphs: 7.9% (4th)

 

Will be interesting to see if they do drop slightly if the Brewers take over the #1 seed at some point, setting up a tougher NLDS match up with the Wild Card winner as opposed to vs the NL East winner if they are the #2 seed.

[BruisedCrew]

MLB win leaders:

San Fran 66

Brewers (and others) 64

 

Not sure this is a cause for optimism!! In theory, wouldn't it be best if the Brewers finished with the 2nd most wins in the NL? Hypothetically, let the Giants play the winner of the wild card game between LAD and SD, and the Brewers can play the Mets/Braves NL East winner.

 

If the goal is to get to and win the World Series, I would prefer the best record to guarantee the home field advantage for every series. The playoff series aren’t going to be easy no matter who they play. Plus, the wild card winner might have to use up one of its best starters just to win that game

[Roderick]

MLB win leaders:

San Fran 66

Brewers (and others) 64

 

Not sure this is a cause for optimism!! In theory, wouldn't it be best if the Brewers finished with the 2nd most wins in the NL? Hypothetically, let the Giants play the winner of the wild card game between LAD and SD, and the Brewers can play the Mets/Braves NL East winner.

 

If the goal is to get to and win the World Series, I would prefer the best record to guarantee the home field advantage for every series. The playoff series aren’t going to be easy no matter who they play. Plus, the wild card winner might have to use up one of its best starters just to win that game

 

RE: Homefield - Brewers have a 34-19 record on the road. So not a big concern. Now finance guys are going to want another home playoff game whenever possible I'm sure.

[pacopete4]

21 games over! Keep it going!!

[Roderick]

Reason for optimism. Wasn't the last time the Brewers were struggling was when Brent Suter was not around the clubhouse. Here is a tangible reason to back that up.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/rowdy-tellez-hits-pinch-hit-go-ahead-homer-in-win-vs-pirates?partnerId=zh-20210805-448458-mlb-1-A&qid=1026&utm_id=zh-20210805-448458-mlb-1-A&bt_ee=hx5sH4YYLKK0HFzPr3RNNP2gBxKVR9rCwlvjTa4kt9QkQ6jceTKKR8CYVzmZ0TsL&bt_ts=1628170252134

 

While Tellez was on the phone with Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns, he got a text from Wednesday’s winning pitcher, reliever Brent Suter, welcoming him to the team and offering assistance getting moved.

[sveumrules]

There are 148 starters with at least 50 IP so far. All six of the Brewers starters rank within the top 60 by ERA...

 

Peralta (2.25, 4th) Woodruff (2.26, 5th) Burnes (2.46, 8th) Lauer (3.30, 37th) Anderson (3.67, 54th) Houser (3.71, 58th)

[homer]

There are 148 starters with at least 50 IP so far. All six of the Brewers starters rank within the top 60 by ERA...

 

Peralta (2.25, 4th) Woodruff (2.26, 5th) Burnes (2.46, 8th) Lauer (3.30, 37th) Anderson (3.67, 54th) Houser (3.71, 58th)

 

You're more tuned into the defensive metrics than I am so I'm wondering how the defense is doing? Seems like it's gotten a ton better since the Adames trade but that's just eyeballing it.

[sveumrules]

There are 148 starters with at least 50 IP so far. All six of the Brewers starters rank within the top 60 by ERA...

 

Peralta (2.25, 4th) Woodruff (2.26, 5th) Burnes (2.46, 8th) Lauer (3.30, 37th) Anderson (3.67, 54th) Houser (3.71, 58th)

 

You're more tuned into the defensive metrics than I am so I'm wondering how the defense is doing? Seems like it's gotten a ton better since the Adames trade but that's just eyeballing it.

 

They don't offer the custom date splits of FanGraphs for fielding stats, but Urias is at +5 DRS / +0.9 UZR at 3B this year vs -4 DRS / -4.4 UZR at SS while Adames has been at +4 DRS / +1.7 UZR, so infield defense has probably improved (in addition to runs scoring & the bullpen) since the Willy trade.

 

On a team level for the season so far Brewers rank 5th in DRS (+43) & 2nd in UZR (+16.6) which is probably a contributing factor the team having a 3.33 ERA vs a 3.68 FIP with that -0.35 difference representing the 5th largest margin in MLB to this point.

[BruisedCrew]

 

 

 

RE: Homefield - Brewers have a 34-19 record on the road. So not a big concern. Now finance guys are going to want another home playoff game whenever possible I'm sure.

 

I think playing at home in the playoffs is a bigger advantage than during the regular season. Just the tactical advantage of having the last bat has value. Throw in the home crowd support and I think every player and manager would rather be at home than on the road. Plus, if they’re at home I might be able to go to the game.

[Underachiever]

13-5 since the ASB, and three of the losses are to teams they won’t have to face in the playoffs.

[Eye Black]

This doesn’t even include Rowdy’s performance last night…

 

[brewtank34]

We still have Garrett Mitchell, Small, Ashby, Feliciano, and Turang. Didn’t lose any of these guys at the deadline. Let’s Gooooo!

[owbc]

13-5 since the ASB, and three of the losses are to teams they won’t have to face in the playoffs.

 

29-23 to win 95 games.

[Dragonbait]

This is the optimism thread!

 

34-18 for 100 wins!

[Patrick425]

Fun read as a Brewer's fan:

 

https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/cubs/ct-chicago-cubs-milwaukee-brewers-rebuild-20210810-tesfab76hvao3dl5g65dstxddq-story.html

[pacopete4]

23 games above .500 with an 8-game lead over the Reds and double digits on everyone else.

 

47 games to play. Magic number is 40.

 

Brewers now have a +103 run differential.

 

The Reds are probably going to have to win somewhere between 65-70% of their remaining games to have a shot at the division and that may not be enough.

[MrTPlush]

The last half week is a solid example of why it will be so hard for the Reds to catch us. While we will lose games, so will they, and we will certainly still have our winning streaks. Panic 4-5 days ago and now we are up 8 games. It is like being down big in basketball. You can be down 20 point, go on an 11-0 run, but then the other team goes on a run canceling out most if not all of the progress you had.

[Eye Black]

Fun read as a Brewer's fan:

 

https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/cubs/ct-chicago-cubs-milwaukee-brewers-rebuild-20210810-tesfab76hvao3dl5g65dstxddq-story.html

You had me at the opening sentence…

 

No team contributed to the dismantling of the Chicago Cubs more than their rivals from Milwaukee.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

One of these Brewers starters is gonna throw a no-hitter before the end of this season, aren't they? Seriously, any time Woody, Burnes or Peralta take the mound, there's a chance. Hell, even Houser and Lauer have a shot.

 

Also, if the Brewers go 23-24 the rest of the season, they'll win 92 games. This team has a legit shot at winning 100.

[igor67]

In yesterday's playoff odds run at Baseball prospectus, the doubleheader sweep pushed both Chicago and the Cards playoff odds to zero, on top of the Reds taking a pretty big hit (-8.4% in a single day). And then there were last night's games. Pecota playoff odds at the start of play yesterday 97.4% with a World Series % of 12.8 trailing only the Dodgers and Houston.

Fangraphs has us at 97.7% as of today to make the playoffs and 9.2% to win the World Series.

[PeaveyFury]

The Reds and their fans have to be exasperated right now. They've played pretty good baseball since the Milwaukee series, and they've literally lost ground in the race despite our well-known issues with the bullpen and COVID. This team is ultra-resilient and matching them blow for blow.

[Eye Black]

The Reds and their fans have to be exasperated right now. They've played pretty good baseball since the Milwaukee series, and they've literally lost ground in the race despite our well-known issues with the bullpen and COVID. This team is ultra-resilient and matching them blow for blow.

Agreed, the Reds season has been quite a roller coaster and even during their good stretches the Brewers have matched or exceeded their success. From what I’ve seen most recently Reds fans now appear to have shifted their focus to the Wild Card race.