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Kyle Seager


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In the spirit of non-flashy but team improving moves, I'd like to see what the cost would be for Kyle Seager. Maybe the Mariners would kick back some money to cover part of the contract for a bit extra in player return. I'm sure they'd tell you, he's a super valuable piece to their clubhouse, and pretty much the face of their current team but for at team going no where I'm sure they'd listen.

 

Thoughts on what it would take to get him or what you'd be willing to give up? Lutz+Ashby?

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I seem to remember Seager being discussed on this forum in the past.

 

The issue is that he is expensive (owed $15,000,000.00 for 2021, with a 2022 club option at $15,000,000.00), and not getting any younger at 33.

 

If he is traded then the 2022 option becomes a player option. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/seattle-mariners/kyle-seager-8618/

 

If the Brewers are taking the entire contract then I do think a package of something like Lutz and Ashby would get it done.

 

I just don't see a fit here.

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ZiPS projects Seager for a 108 OPS+ & 2.1 WAR in 2021.

 

You'd essentially be trading for about 4 projected WAR for 30 million, which means Seager really doesn't have any notable surplus value.

 

One of Lutz or Ashby is probably an overpay, much less both. If a team calls offering SEA two legit prospects for Seager they should jump.

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ZiPS projects Seager for a 108 OPS+ & 2.1 WAR in 2021.

 

You'd essentially be trading for about 4 projected WAR for 30 million, which means Seager really doesn't have any notable surplus value.

 

One of Lutz or Ashby is probably an overpay, much less both. If a team calls offering SEA two legit prospects for Seager they should jump.

 

If you remove Seager from Seattle and he is playing half his games in Milwaukee he is going to hit for a lot more power and possibly increase his average a bit. I think he could get close to a 3 WAR in 2021 playing in Milwaukee compared to playing in Seattle but even with that the Mariners would have to throw in about $10m to get someone like Ward/Andrews/File/Bettinger/Ernesto. Would it really be worth it for the Mariners to do that trade?

 

If the Mariners are about dumping his salary then I think this makes sense for the Mariners to do. Add about $10m in cash to the trade and pick up a wildcard and hope for the best.

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  • 10 months later...
Really amazing that a player can post 101 RBIs with a .212/.285/.438/.723 slash line. 35 HRs is a big part of that, but what really amazing is a line of .308/.372/.643/1.015 with runners in scoring position versus a .157/.227/.366/.593 with the bases empty. He also only hit .159/.245/.329/.573 in home games. Crazy statistical season.
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Really amazing that a player can post 101 RBIs with a .212/.285/.438/.723 slash line. 35 HRs is a big part of that, but what really amazing is a line of .308/.372/.643/1.015 with runners in scoring position versus a .157/.227/.366/.593 with the bases empty. He also only hit .159/.245/.329/.573 in home games. Crazy statistical season.

 

Kind of a microcosm of the Mariners season, 211/287/361 with bases empty vs 259/338/450 with RISP.

 

205/288/336 in low leverage, 228/299/395 in medium leverage, 271/345/482 in high leverage.

 

That's how you go 90-72 with a negative 51 run differential.

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I know the modern view is to say there's no such thing as hitting in the clutch that RBI are all a function of how many guys get on base in front of you. Yeah but with a guy like Seager, my guess is it's not that he's a better hitter in high leverage situations, but he gets better results because he's prone to giving away AB's when the game is not on the line and when it's a big AB, he doesn't give it away.
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I think the modern view is that RBI are a combination of opportunity, batter skill & good old fashioned luck.

 

Ty France had a 128 OPS+ & drove in 73 of 386 runners.

Castellanos had a 136 OPS+ & drove in 100 of 387 runners.

A. Meadows had a 117 OPS+ & drove in 106 of 387 runners.

 

The idea there is no such thing as clutch is because those type of numbers show a very low year to year correlation. Seager's yearly OPS with RISP from 2021 backward....

 

1015, 842, 868, 657, 893, 1031, 606, 835, 716, 892, 441

 

Compared to his overall seasonal OPS from 2021 backward...

 

723, 788, 789, 673, 773, 859, 779, 788, 764, 738, 691

 

Seager's average year to year OPS variance with RISP was 218 points compared to an average year to year variance of 55 points on the overall seasonal OPS.

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Statistically, when comparing many players, RBI numbers are statistically "noisy", which makes it harder to really use than other stats.

 

But that doesn't mean some people aren't "clutch". El Caballo was one of the more "clutch" hitters I can remember watching on the Brewers. He just had a knack for getting runners home, especially with the sac fly. Even when he was becoming worse as a hitter in general, he seemed to be able to move people over or get that needed hit at the right time.

 

Some people just focus better when the pressure is on and others panic.

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Statistically, when comparing many players, RBI numbers are statistically "noisy", which makes it harder to really use than other stats.

 

But that doesn't mean some people aren't "clutch". El Caballo was one of the more "clutch" hitters I can remember watching on the Brewers. He just had a knack for getting runners home, especially with the sac fly. Even when he was becoming worse as a hitter in general, he seemed to be able to move people over or get that needed hit at the right time.

 

Some people just focus better when the pressure is on and others panic.

Announcers & writers would talk regularly during his Brewers tenure about how Carlos Lee (El Caballo for those who don't remember) would choke up just a little with two strikes him to focus all the more on making contact, and that approach made a very real positive impact.

 

Continuing this aside: A friend and I also talk regularly about how a core of Brewers hitters in the late '90s era (Cirillo & Loretta, very notably, perhaps also Vina/Surhoff/Nilsson in some part) for a couple years would take batting practice using a machine that shot tennis balls at them at around 140 mph, and the balls had particular marks on them. The whole point was training their eyes and hand/eye that much more, and it clearly paid off because those guys were really good hitters with a good eye at the plate. For the past 15-ish years I keep wishing the Brewers had guys who were just plain good hitters who typically had quality ABs and also didn't feel the need to hit the ball over the fence every time.

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Statistically, when comparing many players, RBI numbers are statistically "noisy", which makes it harder to really use than other stats.

 

But that doesn't mean some people aren't "clutch". El Caballo was one of the more "clutch" hitters I can remember watching on the Brewers. He just had a knack for getting runners home, especially with the sac fly. Even when he was becoming worse as a hitter in general, he seemed to be able to move people over or get that needed hit at the right time.

 

Some people just focus better when the pressure is on and others panic.

Announcers & writers would talk regularly during his Brewers tenure about how Carlos Lee (El Caballo for those who don't remember) would choke up just a little with two strikes him to focus all the more on making contact, and that approach made a very real positive impact.

 

Continuing this aside: A friend and I also talk regularly about how a core of Brewers hitters in the late '90s era (Cirillo & Loretta, very notably, perhaps also Vina/Surhoff/Nilsson in some part) for a couple years would take batting practice using a machine that shot tennis balls at them at around 140 mph, and the balls had particular marks on them. The whole point was training their eyes and hand/eye that much more, and it clearly paid off because those guys were really good hitters with a good eye at the plate. For the past 15-ish years I keep wishing the Brewers had guys who were just plain good hitters who typically had quality ABs and also didn't feel the need to hit the ball over the fence every time.

 

that was a Jim Lefevbre tool

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