Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic

Future of the OF


 Share

https://theathletic.com/2798709/2021/08/31/ten-mlb-hitting-prospects-primed-to-pop-into-jim-bowdens-top-50-in-2022/

 

Interesting read here. While Mitchell has been battling through injuries of late, the future Milwaukee OF looks really bright provided they hang on to these two. You'd like to see their power numbers spike up next year and beyond but defninitely two contracts that could help balance out the Yelich contract and open up dollars to maybe invest in one of Woody or Burnes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Recommended Posts

I don't have an Athletic subscription, but Brewers have four CF prospects who all figure to be in their top 10 at the beginning of next year with Mitchell, Frelick, Perez, and Gray.

 

They all seem to be rising fast through the system, hopefully one or two of them could be ready to contribute toward the end of 2022 or beginning of 2023, just as expensive OF contracts are coming off the books.

Edited by Greenleaf1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Brewer Fanatic Contributor
https://theathletic.com/2798709/2021/08/31/ten-mlb-hitting-prospects-primed-to-pop-into-jim-bowdens-top-50-in-2022/

 

Interesting read here. While Mitchell has been battling through injuries of late, the future Milwaukee OF looks really bright provided they hang on to these two. You'd like to see their power numbers spike up next year and beyond but defninitely two contracts that could help balance out the Yelich contract and open up dollars to maybe invest in one of Woody or Burnes.

In the article, Jim Bowden listed his top 10 outfield prospects primed to break into the top 50 (hence those URL). Frelick was #1 while Mitchell was #5.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

... but Brewers have four CF prospects who all figure to be in their top 10 at the beginning of next year with Mitchell, Frelick, Gray, Perez, and Gray.

 

I hope Gray is so good, he needs to get listed twice. ;)

Edited by Roderick
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Does Ashby stay "prospect-eligible" next year? Do we have a top-15 system next year?

Most likely not, in the past September did not count toward the 45 day rookie status eligibility but that changed so September/October days will count.

That really makes it almost ridiculous to think how little credit our prospect rankings would have gotten over time considering how well Ashby might be pitching by next year. It's all explainable, but still remarkable to be in a position to have 3+ All star level starters, and not have a system ranked above 20 in that time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Does Ashby stay "prospect-eligible" next year? Do we have a top-15 system next year?

Most likely not, in the past September did not count toward the 45 day rookie status eligibility but that changed so September/October days will count.

That really makes it almost ridiculous to think how little credit our prospect rankings would have gotten over time considering how well Ashby might be pitching by next year. It's all explainable, but still remarkable to be in a position to have 3+ All star level starters, and not have a system ranked above 20 in that time.

 

 

Excellent point. I think it’s fair to say many of the folks who have graded the Brewers system over the past several years have underestimated their talent level.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Brewers do have some really good prospects in the OF.

 

Tier 1:

Mitchell (AA)

Frelick (A+)

Gray (A+)

 

Tier 2:

Hedbert Perez (A)

Wiemer (A+)

 

Tier 3:

LG Castillo (A+)

Ward (A+)

Ernesto Martinez (A)

Bello (A)

Lutz (A)

Carlos Rodriguez (A)

Pablo Abreu (A)

 

The exciting players are in tier 1 and tier 2. I wouldn't be surprised if someone in tier 3 will become a 4th or 5th OF. Martinez, Castillo and Ward all look like they can project to be at least a 4th/5th OF. If everything clicks for them possibly even everyday players but they have a lot they need to work on.

 

The Brewers have some exciting guys maybe not in the top 10 or top 25 but some real exciting players. If Mitchell continues to play well and stays healthy he should be in AAA at some point next year and if Frelick continues to succeed he should be in AA by the middle of the year next year. So Frelick should have an ETA of 2024 and Mitchell an ETA of 2023. You could possibly see both in the majors at the same time. Then you have Wiemer and Hedbert just behind them. Talent wise Wiemer is reminding me of Corey Hart, the way that he plays is what really makes the Corey Hart comparison fit.

 

Should be an interesting 2-3 years here for the Brewers in the OF. I wouldn't be surprised if a few are traded for some other depth that the Brewers are lacking in the minors. I think we could see some traded for some pitching depth.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In some amount of fairness very few teams have ever cranked out as many good young starting pitchers as we have the last few years, and all prior experience would indicate that as a team we were worse than average at developing pitchers historically. I would have been happy 3 years ago if you told me 1 of Woody, Burnes, and Peralta would turn into a TOR pitcher. That has all seemingly changed.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd put Hendry Mendez ahead of all the guys in Tier 3.

 

Ranked #32 on the FanGraphs preseason list, doesn't turn 18 for two months & has put up a 319/406/484 triple slash with 12 BB / 9 K in 107 PAs split between the DSL & ACL.

 

I tried to stay away from players below A ball. I was hesitant to put in Hedbert since he was just promoted to A ball.

 

Just too many unknowns at those levels.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I didn't think Herbert could play CF?

 

He's played 101 innings in CF, 89 innings in RF and 22 innings in LF so far this year.

 

Mitchell & Frelick have better scouting reports for CF defense, so if all three end up in Milwaukee someday Hedbert would probably be in a corner, but thats a long ways off yet.

 

Defense is always the trickiest to judge. Lawrie was supposed to be a bat first / find a position for him somewhere prospect that got most of his career value from his glove & never hit after his first callup. Arcia was supposed to be a gold glove caliber SS but put up middling defensive numbers. Grisham was consisered a marginal CF defensively in the minors but has won a GG & graded out as a top 5 defensive CF the last two years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Surprised no one included Korry Howell. He has struggled in a very brief appearance thus far at Double-A, but I think he’s a solid CF prospect (who can also fill a utility role) that could certainly find his way to the majors in a couple of years.

 

Yeah, I really like Howell's speed/defense combo, but kind of think of him in more of the (hopefully super) utility category.

 

Red flag for Korry is that 29.8% K rate, though his 10.9% BB rate & .202 ISO offer some encouragement. Obviously not one to one comparisons with everyone different ages with different sample sizes at different levels, but here's how the "Big Five OF" have fared in the same categories...

 

Mitchell: 24.2 K% | 17.8 BB% | .163 ISO (256 PAs)

Frelick: 12.2 K% | 11.2 BB% | .163 ISO (98 PAs)

Hedbert: 25.8 K% | 6.1 BB% | .242 ISO (132 PAs)

Gray Jr.: 27.6 K% | 11.4 BB% | .272 ISO (413 PAs)

Wiemer: 21.8 K% | 13.1 BB% | .242 ISO (390 PAs)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I did not notice the K rate on Howell. I've been buying into K rate as a prediction of future success a lot recently. Hopefully he can bring it down next year. He's on pace to be well above 30% at MLB level and almost no one can survive there as an above average or even average player. It's a number that almost always goes up when a guy gets promoted though.
I tried to log in on my iPad. Turns out it was an etch-a-sketch and I don't own an iPad. Also, I'm out of vodka.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Surprised no one included Korry Howell. He has struggled in a very brief appearance thus far at Double-A, but I think he’s a solid CF prospect (who can also fill a utility role) that could certainly find his way to the majors in a couple of years.

 

Yeah, I really like Howell's speed/defense combo, but kind of think of him in more of the (hopefully super) utility category.

 

Red flag for Korry is that 29.8% K rate, though his 10.9% BB rate & .202 ISO offer some encouragement. Obviously not one to one comparisons with everyone different ages with different sample sizes at different levels, but here's how the "Big Five OF" have fared in the same categories...

 

Mitchell: 24.2 K% | 17.8 BB% | .163 ISO (256 PAs)

Frelick: 12.2 K% | 11.2 BB% | .163 ISO (98 PAs)

Hedbert: 25.8 K% | 6.1 BB% | .242 ISO (132 PAs)

Gray Jr.: 27.6 K% | 11.4 BB% | .272 ISO (413 PAs)

Wiemer: 21.8 K% | 13.1 BB% | .242 ISO (390 PAs)

 

His adjustment to AA still looks okay in the small sample - he has 5 walks to 48 ABs, and the ISO is .146. Next year could tell the tale as to whether he's another Hernan Perez or if he is a poor man's Javier Baez. He's played SS, 2B, 3B, and all three OF positions, so if he can adjust and get the K rate down, he's a keeper.

 

That said, the OF's future is looking very good. Corey Ray is a left-handed Keon Broxton. Mitchell reminds me of Lorenzo Cain, to be honest. Perez, Gray, and Wiemer all look good so far in the power department.

 

That, of course, doesn't include players like Howell, Ernesto Martinez, and others who may be thought of as infielders, but who can also play one or more OF positions competently.

 

The system's deep enough that the Crew could afford to give Adames a Yelich-type "face of the franchise" deal. Yeah, we have some SS/2B prospects... but Adames and Yelich could be the 3-4 hitters for the Crew for the rest of the decade.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

The Twins Daily Caretaker Fund
The Brewer Fanatic Caretaker Fund

You all care about this site. The next step is caring for it. We’re asking you to caretake this site so it can remain the premiere Brewers community on the internet. Included with caretaking is ad-free browsing of Brewer Fanatic.

×
×
  • Create New...