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Jeff McNeil to be traded?


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Pat Ragazzo of SI.com reports that the Mets plan to make Jeff McNeil available via trade after the lockout ends.

 

Ragazzo says that the club intends to target pitching help in return. It wouldn't be the ideal time to shop McNeil since he's coming off a disappointing .679 OPS in 2021, but the Mets "have received a substantial amount of calls" asking about his availability, per Ragazzo. Ragazzo also mentions in the report that McNeil's relationship with several teammates has "soured" following an altercation with Francisco Lindor in May, which apparently boiled over in part due to McNeil sometimes refusing to comply with the Mets’ defensive shifting philosophy. McNeil, who turns 30 in April, is under team control through 2024.

 

SOURCE: SI.com

Dec 24, 2021, 11:59 AM ET

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Not sure I really see a fit. Between Wong/Urias/Jace/Brosseau we already have pretty solid depth at 2B/3B.

 

Mets are probably going to be looking for a return more in line with the 319/383/501 (139 OPS+) line McNeil posted over 1,024 PAs from 2018-20, while teams are going to be making offers for the guy who hit 251/319/360 (88 OPS+) over 426 PAs in 2021.

 

If the Mets are looking for pitching it'd probably be one of Houser, Lauer, Ashby or Small headlining with guys added on the peripherary of both sides to even things out as needed.

 

If we do end up dealing one of those four to bolster the offense I'd hope we could get something better than a bounceback candidate in return.

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I've always liked McNeil. Not sure what happened this past season with is crappy year. If the club thinks he can rebound - and they feel they can get him into the lineup regularly - he'd be nice to have.

 

Something involving Lauer or Houser would probably need to come from Milwaukee. After McNeil's subpar 2021, I'm not sure something like that is worth it. But that's on the talent evaluators to determine. I'm just not sure which McNeil we'd be getting.

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I am not a big McNeil fan but I think this would be fair.

 

Brewers get McNeil, Palmer and Jordany Ventura

Mets get Houser

 

I don't see McNeil with much value and I think his power numbers were added by the juiced ball and he is probably closer to a 90-100 OPS+ than he is to the 139 OPS+ he put up with the juiced ball.

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I am not a big McNeil fan but I think this would be fair.

 

Brewers get McNeil, Palmer and Jordany Ventura

Mets get Houser

 

I don't see McNeil with much value and I think his power numbers were added by the juiced ball and he is probably closer to a 90-100 OPS+ than he is to the 139 OPS+ he put up with the juiced ball.

 

I just don't see how trading Houser for a backup infielder (McNeil) and two maybes still in A and rookie ball is going to help the Brewers in any way. If Stearns is going to trade a SP it should for or part of a trade for the middle of the order, big bat they need.

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I think the Brewers have every intention of sticking with a 6 man rotation. If they don't, I think they will still value SP depth quite a bit. They're not going to trade depth from the rotation to shore up areas where they already have depth, even if the depth is guys that feel like "spare parts"
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I'd be very interested. A lifetime .299/.364/.459/.824 hitter who has posted a positive DRS at 2B, 3B, LF and RF.

 

I don't think he ever comes close to an .800 OPS ever again. I think he is more of a .750 OPS player going forward which would be fine if he were playing at 2B. His average exit velocity was down near the bottom of the league along with his barrel% and hardhit%. I just don't see him being anything more than a slap hitting 30 year old 2B. He is basically a clone of Wong who is already on the team. Having one Wong type of a hitter on the team is OK and I just don't see the appeal of adding another.

 

If the Brewers could get McNeil plus prospects for someone like Houser sure go ahead and make that trade but if the Brewers have to give up anyone better than Houser then that is a horrible deal for the Brewers. I wouldn't be surprised if teams have a surplus value on McNeil closer to a 1 win player which is worth far less than Houser on the current market.

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Little concerned what the second part of the second to last sentence means. If he's not aligned with defensive shifting, then he's not a good organizational fit. Unless the Mets' "defensive shifting" means a lack thereof...

 

Yeah, that stuck out to me. If the coach calls for a shift and he doesn't shift, he is pulled from the game if you ask me. So it must be something different?....

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Little concerned what the second part of the second to last sentence means. If he's not aligned with defensive shifting, then he's not a good organizational fit. Unless the Mets' "defensive shifting" means a lack thereof...

 

Lindor and McNeil are not really on the best of terms. When the player that you are paying the most and looks to be the face of your franchise for the foreseeable future something is going to happen.

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/mets/news/mets-francisco-lindor-jeff-mcneil-rat-raccoon-mystery-finally-uncovered

 

From the source above:

 

“[Lindor] would always try to get him to move and Jeff would be like, ‘Shut up, I got it,’ ” a source told The Post. “It was building and building.”

 

So it sounds like McNeil is not a fan of shifting and will play where he wants to play.

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I'd leave it to Stearns and company to determine if McNeil is "fixable," but if they think he's really the guy he was from 2018-2020, and not the guy he was in 2021, then he could be a nice addition. I think the McNeil and a couple of prospects for Houser would be a realistic scenario.

 

Honestly, if we want to upgrade the offense, we need to trade from the starting pitching depth. If we want to retain our starting pitching depth, we probably aren't going to upgrade the offense. Since Houser is on roughly the same free agency track as Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta and Lauer, I don't really have a problem using him or Lauer in a trade. Just hold onto Ashby and any other good prospects who will have to replace some of the current arby guys in a couple of years as they get traded or hit free agency.

 

The defensive shift thing could be concerning. I'm sure Stearns is aware of the true story, so if he were to trade for McNeil, I don't think it would be an issue.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

 

~Bill Walsh

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McNeil may be a good "get."

 

2018: 92/92

2019: 93/93

2020: 95/95

2021: 95/95

 

Those are the multi-year park factors for Citi Field.

 

2018: 102/101

2019: 101/101

2020: 102/101

2021: 101/101

 

Those are the multi-year park factors for Miller Park/American Family Field

 

The multi-year park factors for Marlins Park in 2017 was 90/91.

 

To me, this points to some improvement for McNeil. In fact, Yelich's explosion was one big reason I was a big McNeil guy for a while.

 

Lauer and Corey Ray for McNeil, a Top 30 prospect, and a trio of DSL lottery tickets seems right to me.

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I don't know what to make of the Mets last year. Incredible how the entire offense underperformed. I suspect there are some buy low bargains on that team, though McNeil is low on my list. I think his power isn't coming back which makes him more of a util.
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I don't know what to make of the Mets last year. Incredible how the entire offense underperformed.

 

They fired their hitting coaches in early May.

 

12-12 with a 103 wRC+ & 3.41 R/G before the firing and 65-73 with a 101 wRC+ & 4.01 R/G after the firing.

 

Weird how firing their hitting coaches didn't turn around their whole season.

 

Maybe their attempt to buy the NL East crown go better this year.

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I think there are probably other teams that would value him more currently. He would give the Brewers some enviable insurance\depth\ super-sub. If you think he can get back to pulling the ball more as he did in 2019 and coax 20 HRs from his high contact approach, he's back to an all-star level. If you think he'd be good with a super-sub role then I'd be willing to entertain the idea of trading for him, though I'm not sure how much he would ultimately affect the regular season win total. For me, I'm acquiring him for the depth and to be a tough out against tough pitching in the playoffs.
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I think there are probably other teams that would value him more currently. He would give the Brewers some enviable insurance\depth\ super-sub. If you think he can get back to pulling the ball more as he did in 2019 and coax 20 HRs from his high contact approach, he's back to an all-star level. If you think he'd be good with a super-sub role then I'd be willing to entertain the idea of trading for him, though I'm not sure how much he would ultimately affect the regular season win total. For me, I'm acquiring him for the depth and to be a tough out against tough pitching in the playoffs.

 

I'd consider him as an upgrade at first base over the Tellez/Hiura platoon, and as an option for depth at 3B/2B/LF.

 

Assume it's McNeil for Lauer/Ray/Tellez.

 

2b: Wong

1b: McNeil

lf: Yelich

ss: Adames

c: Narvaez

rf: Renfroe

3b: Urias

cf: Cain

bench: Severino, Hiura, Peterson, Broussard, Taylor

rotation: Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Ashby, Houser

bullpen: Hader (closer), D. Williams (8th), Cousins (7th), A. Perdomo (middle), Topa (middle), Sanchez (middle), Suter (multi/long), Lindblom (multi/long/garbage)

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I think there are probably other teams that would value him more currently. He would give the Brewers some enviable insurance\depth\ super-sub. If you think he can get back to pulling the ball more as he did in 2019 and coax 20 HRs from his high contact approach, he's back to an all-star level. If you think he'd be good with a super-sub role then I'd be willing to entertain the idea of trading for him, though I'm not sure how much he would ultimately affect the regular season win total. For me, I'm acquiring him for the depth and to be a tough out against tough pitching in the playoffs.

 

I'd consider him as an upgrade at first base over the Tellez/Hiura platoon, and as an option for depth at 3B/2B/LF.

 

Assume it's McNeil for Lauer/Ray/Tellez.

 

2b: Wong

1b: McNeil

lf: Yelich

ss: Adames

c: Narvaez

rf: Renfroe

3b: Urias

cf: Cain

bench: Severino, Hiura, Peterson, Broussard, Taylor

rotation: Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Ashby, Houser

bullpen: Hader (closer), D. Williams (8th), Cousins (7th), A. Perdomo (middle), Topa (middle), Sanchez (middle), Suter (multi/long), Lindblom (multi/long/garbage)

 

I just don't see McNeil being much of an upgrade over Tellez if it cost them Lauer. I would rather have Lauer in the 5 spot and Ashby in the pen or #6 with Tellez at 1B. I believe Tellez will have better power numbers and drive in more runs than McNeil. With Brousseau and Peterson on the bench, I think the Crew has 3B & 1B covered.

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I think there are probably other teams that would value him more currently. He would give the Brewers some enviable insurance\depth\ super-sub. If you think he can get back to pulling the ball more as he did in 2019 and coax 20 HRs from his high contact approach, he's back to an all-star level. If you think he'd be good with a super-sub role then I'd be willing to entertain the idea of trading for him, though I'm not sure how much he would ultimately affect the regular season win total. For me, I'm acquiring him for the depth and to be a tough out against tough pitching in the playoffs.

 

I'd consider him as an upgrade at first base over the Tellez/Hiura platoon, and as an option for depth at 3B/2B/LF.

 

Assume it's McNeil for Lauer/Ray/Tellez.

 

2b: Wong

1b: McNeil

lf: Yelich

ss: Adames

c: Narvaez

rf: Renfroe

3b: Urias

cf: Cain

bench: Severino, Hiura, Peterson, Broussard, Taylor

rotation: Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Ashby, Houser

bullpen: Hader (closer), D. Williams (8th), Cousins (7th), A. Perdomo (middle), Topa (middle), Sanchez (middle), Suter (multi/long), Lindblom (multi/long/garbage)

 

I just don't see McNeil being much of an upgrade over Tellez if it cost them Lauer. I would rather have Lauer in the 5 spot and Ashby in the pen or #6 with Tellez at 1B. I believe Tellez will have better power numbers and drive in more runs than McNeil. With Brousseau and Peterson on the bench, I think the Crew has 3B & 1B covered.

 

I'm naturally betting on McNeil to revert to his 2018-2020 form. If we get a reversion to form, that plus Miller Park/AFF's park factor will probably give a very good boost as well. Worth Lauer.

 

Keep in mind, I'm OK with a top 7 of Burnes-Woodruff-Peralta-Houser-Ashby-Suter-Lindblom, especially with File-Small-Bettinger at AAA, and that doesn't count Zavolas, Colin Rea, or Jesus Castillo.

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I'm naturally betting on McNeil to revert to his 2018-2020 form. If we get a reversion to form, that plus Miller Park/AFF's park factor will probably give a very good boost as well. Worth Lauer.

 

Keep in mind, I'm OK with a top 7 of Burnes-Woodruff-Peralta-Houser-Ashby-Suter-Lindblom, especially with File-Small-Bettinger at AAA, and that doesn't count Zavolas, Colin Rea, or Jesus Castillo.

 

Unless MLB is bringing back the 2018-2019 baseball then I don't see McNeil reverting back to those numbers. At best you are looking at a low .400 slugging from McNeil which is absolutely worthless at 1B. He would be fine at 2B but Wong is already there and I don't see McNeil as an improvement over Wong. I just don't see the Brewers playing two players who are very similar at 1B and 2B. You are basically betting on Yelich returning to his 2018-2019 form for nearly all of your power.

 

With McNeil, Wong and Cain in the lineup that would be three players who would be slugging at best around .400. That is just ugly and if you wanted to make the offense worse than what is was last year congrats you did it.

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I'm hoping, no praying, that Hiura finds his stroke and becomes a viable option at 1B in 2022.

 

I really have no interest in a McNeil type player.

 

We desperately need a bopper to add to the line-up.

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS
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What’s the point in giving up a valuable pitcher for McNeil? To trade Wong? Bench Urias? Play him as a below average 1B or DH?

 

Ask me again in June when we are looking for the next Escobar trade deadline deal.

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What’s the point in giving up a valuable pitcher for McNeil? To trade Wong? Bench Urias? Play him as a below average 1B or DH?

 

Ask me again in June when we are looking for the next Escobar trade deadline deal.

 

McNeil has a positive DRS at 2B, 3B, LF, RF.

 

It's possible he could turn out to be the Brewer's best option in RF. How much time will Yelich miss in LF, especially now that he's on the big contract and just may have less motivation to play with minor injuries? I'm more than happy to go into 2022 with Urias as the everyday 3B, but what if he regresses?

 

If I'm to play Brewer GM, and the BaseballTradeValue site's 15.1 million in surplus value estimate is truly what MLB front offices think of him....and the Mets really want to deal him....there would be a 100% chance that he would be in a Brewer uniform next year. I'd probably have his surplus value at 3x that amount. He had a crappy .679 OPS last year and still, on average, was a 1.0 bWAR/fWAR player. Before that season he had posted a .319/.383/.501/.884 slash line in over 1000 plate appearances. He was a .900+ OPS guy in AAA and AA. A very good history of hitting and getting on-base.

 

If he splits the middle between what he was in 2018-2020 versus 2021...he is a .285/.350/.430/.780 hitter that bring plus DRS to four positions and the best comparable to that slash line in 2021 was Alex Verdugo who hit .289/.351/.426 for the Red Sox and graded as an average outfielder (good in left and right, poor in centerfield). Verdugo's WARs as follows: bWAR = 2.2, fWAR= 2.0. Verdugo's left field numbers are way better than McNeil's but McNeil's numbers are slightly better as a right fielder. Add in that McNeil can bring plus defense at 2B and 3B and I'd probably calculates out to a 2.3-2.5 WAR player if he hits at the .285/.350/.430/.780 level.

 

At a price of 15 million in surplus value, IMO he's a great guy to take a chance on. With a year one arbitration estimate of 2.8 million, he's on a track that would probably earn him about 13 million over the next 3 years. If he's worth 6 WAR total over those three seasons, trading 15 million in surplus value away would be a very good move for the Brewers.

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