Packers 2022 Discussion Thread

[bjkrautk]

4 hours ago, Sixtolezcano said:

Not as definitive as the previous report but JS Online updated today that Fickell offered Leonhart the DC job on Sunday and that their sources expected him to be on the Badger’s staff in 2023.

it also appears that B.Allen will remain a Badger in 2023.

 

[UpandIn]

1 hour ago, LouisEly said:

@UpandIn Curious as to why you think they need OT.  I think that's one of the few positions they don't need.  Give Tom a full offseason in a pro strength program and he could be Bakh 2.0.  If you're correct and Nijman is a RFA he's around for another year while Jones and Walker develop as backups and see if they make the 2nd year jump.  That's not including Bakh who I think will be back for one more year. 

I'm never opposed to a great OT if one is available, but they're going to have lots of other roster spots to fill.

WR - Lazard, Watkins, Cobb are all FAs.  Will need to spend minimum one pick, likely two here.
TE - Lewis and Tonyan are FAs, likely one pick here
DT - Lowry and Reed are FAs, at least one pick here, maybe two
S - Amos, Ford, and Leavitt are all FAs and Savage might be full-time nickel, at least one pick here, probably two
Edge - Gary out most of the year, little to no depth, Hollins is a FA, at least one pick here
K - Crosby is a FA, isn't getting kickoffs deep enough

They have one pick in each of rounds 1-5 which covers the first five positions above, then three in round seven which will likely be another WR and then two of S/DT/Edge/TE depending on who is back and BPA.  I'd love Michigan's Jake Moody in round 7 but don't think he'll still be around.

 

I don't think it's a pressing need. I agree, Bakh will be probably be back...Tom will get stronger. I really like Caleb Jones. Walker is a guy who if he keeps his body right could be an NFL starter. I just think Yosh has just one year left, Bakh may just have one year left...that's another player who's future is totally up in the air. Is he always going to be a guy who's knee could flair up from this point on or is he getting better?

BUT, Tom could be a better fit at Center or Guard. Jenkins may well be gone. I really like Caleb Jones...but that was from pre-season. I don't think you go wrong loading up on either the OL or the DL. 

I wouldn't take a S, DT, TE unless they were like Kyle Pitts type talent. I'd take a DE like Jalen Carter and I'd move Clark back to your base NT either way. That was a failed experiment that didn't' work the first time around and it's not working now. He's just better as a NT. 

So it's just that, if there's a great OT available, a Wirfs, you take him. I'd be looking at WRer, Edge...maybe DE depending on who's available and it looks like there are some really talented OTs. 

I think we always exaggerate some of these needs. We're talking about Ford and Nixon as these FA losses when they were veteran bonus free agents. 

I think this last years draft is going to make a BIG jump next year. Obviously Watson, but Quay jumps off the screen at times, Wyatt as well. Tom looks like he'll be a 10 year starter. Doubs looked like the best pick until Watson went nuts and now people have forgotten about him. Enagbare. The yearly 3rd round bust seems to be Rhyan. That's a lot to put on him now, but given how bad we were at OG, the fact that he wasn't in the mix is telling. 

This will be a fascinating draft. Also remember we'll get an extra pick for MVS. 

 

It's really gonna come down to Aaron Rodgers though. If they believe they can rebuild this and come back and take another swing at it, they'll re-sign Amos(they'd need to do so before the first day of the league year or it'd be pointless as the 8M in dead cap space will accelerate, but if they do so before then, you could keep him and keep his cap hit under 8M). 

Crosby is likely the same type of decision. The kickoff thing was brought up last year also, but I don't think they're trying to kick it through the endzone. I think it's by design they kick it shorter and higher. And Crosby is falling off, but his hang time early in the season had been around that 4.4 mark...which is good. I'd imagine it's fallen and a 38 year old kicker seems like a logical place to go young.

Even Bakh. If you DO trade Rodgers...and hypothetically Bakh comes back from this latest fluke after the bye and finishes the last 4 games like he's played the last 4-5, that's a really good LT that you MIGHT wanna trade if Love is your QB next year.

 

It'll be interesting to see what they do...and we should know pretty early in the off-season with guys like Tonyan and Amos. The Bengals went from the 5th pick to the SB just last year, the Giants, Jets and others have turned it around quickly. A couple impact players and a DC can change the entire outlook.

That said, I thought you saw enough from Love that it might be time for a more amicable breakup with Rodgers, get through cap purgatory we're inevitably going to have to go through, lock up Jenkins and Gary, probably Lazard and then try to get younger. 

They've also got to be working on some extension that will be announced soon. There's just no reason to restructure Lowry's contract at this point unless it's to create cap space for likely Lazard or Jenkins for this year(Jenkins would make the most sense as his cap hit just from a SB would likely increase quite a bit). 

 

[UpandIn]

43 minutes ago, bjkrautk said:

 

Still really hope they make another offer to him. I think he could do so much with the players we've got on this defense. 

Barry is about as creative as...a not creative person(he doesn't deserve a clever analogy). 

Packers hire Leonhard, reunite him with Benton in the 4th round...and then that's it. That's all the former Badgers I want on this team at the moment(Chenel would be a really good fit as he is a better fit as an edge, but with KC picking him in the 2nd last year, I doubt they'd do anything...even though they've kinda wasted him this year).

[homer]

I'd be ok taking a chance on Leonhard as D Coord despite not coaching at the NFL level. 

[UpandIn]

On 12/6/2022 at 10:26 AM, GAME05 said:

Boy I could really see Rodgers going any direction at the end of the season. If he wants to play again but he thinks the Packers aren't a SB contender, maybe a trade would be tenable without the fans giving him the Favre treatment. Though my guess is he plays another year with GB. And if so, wouldn't Love's 5th year option be really expensive?

To trade Rodgers to Tennessee you pretty much have to take Tannehill, and that's a pretty awful contract. Though if Rodgers wants a trade, I'd guess he'd be able to choose his new team and GB would just get what they could out of it.

I totally agree. I was really confident he was gonna be back each of the last two years...I have absolutely no idea what happens to him after this year.

I have this site on my phone, "Wisconsin Heroics" I think...and it's terrible, but they're usually good in that they don't make up quotes. Gutekunst said Bakhtiari's future would be an "off-season discussion."  He also talks about how hard it is to find elite LTs, etc...etc...but that could be a clue. You're not saving less than 6M and eating 23M and getting rid of Bakh if you're bringing Rodgers back, right?

Maybe he's just being honest and saying "we're not worried about it now," and the Love comment was more calculated because he's a young QB and confidence is so important and you don't want to do anything to undermine it. 

 

As for the Titans, I don't think you'd have to take Tannehill back. This would all be done post June 1st technically. Tannehill has 16M in dead cap space, Rodgers would have a 15M dollar cap hit. If it's post June 1, they could split that Tannehill hit up.

I'd trade him to the Rams or the 49ers though TBH. I don't care. It wouldn't be like trading Favre to me. I wouldn't have ill will. It's just time for both sides to move on and I'd root for him(I enjoyed Paul Allen's "This is not Detroit man, this is the Super Bowl," screech like few other things in life). 

I was just trying to pick a team that seems like they're close, that has a later 1st round pick which I think is about as much value as he has at this point and he bought land in Tennessee and so I threw them out. Maybe they're not a good fit.

[DR28]

Lovely... So sounds like Jordan Love will request a trade if Aaron is back for 2023 season... Guess I dont blame him.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

20 minutes ago, DR28 said:

Lovely... So sounds like Jordan Love will request a trade if Aaron is back for 2023 season... Guess I dont blame him.

I'm ready to move on from Rodgers and see what we have in Love. 

[DR28]

1 hour ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I'm ready to move on from Rodgers and see what we have in Love. 

Totally agree... I want to see more of what Love showed us against the Eagles.

Really looking forward to Love, Watson, Doubs connections.... Hope it happens.

[Outlander]

Hopefully Rodgers performs well down the stretch and the Packers can get something decent for him but not real hopeful considering all of the cold weather games. Unfortunate they gave him that extension prior to the season, it better not prevent them from dumping him.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

17 minutes ago, Outlander said:

Hopefully Rodgers performs well down the stretch and the Packers can get something decent for him but not real hopeful considering all of the cold weather games. Unfortunate they gave him that extension prior to the season, it better not prevent them from dumping him.

Look what Seattle got for Russell Wilson despite Wilson being utterly terrible last year. The Packers will get decent value back if they decide to move on from Rodgers this offseason. 

[CheezWizHed]

On 5/11/2022 at 10:47 PM, CheezWizHed said:

I am going to predict that Doubs has more receptions than Watson on the season.  I'm a bit more 50/50 on who has more more yards and TDs. 

While clearly Watson has the upside to be better.  I think Doubs is more polished to get more early looks. Watson just didn't have the route tree experience that Doubs has.  

• 2011: Cobb: 25 receptions/375 yards/1 TD in his rookie year (Nelson, Jennings, Jones, Driver on the WR depth chart)
• 2014: Adams: 38/446/3 (Nelson, Cobb, Adams)
• 2015: Ty Montgomery: 15/136/2 (Cobb, Adams, Jones)
• 2018: MVS 38/581/2. (Adams, Cobb)  
• 2018: EQS: 21/328/0 (Adams, Cobb)
• 2021: Amari Rodgers: 20/166/0 (Adams, Lazard, Cobb, MVS)

With a depth chart of Watkins, Cobb, Lazard, and Rodger (so far) in 2022, I think both WRs could put up 30-40 receptions and 400-500 yards. 

Best case scenario has Watson put up MVS numbers (38/581) and Doubs at Adams numbers (38/466).  But I have feeling Watson stuggles a bit more than Doubs with the full playbook; limiting his looks. He'll be the gadget guys and flashy distraction running deep routes while Doubs (and others) get the ball on the underneath routes. I'd guess Watson gives up an EQS-like start (21/328), but with a couple TDs.

Interesting reflection on my predictions.  Currently, the pair looks like this:

• Watson: 25 rec for 401 yds (10 games)
• Doubs: 31 rec for 314 yds (9 games)

Seems like both will exceed my best case guess.  But at least I'm currently on track for Romeo with more receptions and Watson on more yards. 

Of course, I also expected Watkins to bring more than the absolute goose-egg he laid this year and Lazard to get #1 WR-type reception numbers. 

Hopefully the pair can stay healthy the rest of the way and we can see a glimpse of our future starting WRs.

 

[UpandIn]

On 12/13/2022 at 11:48 AM, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Look what Seattle got for Russell Wilson despite Wilson being utterly terrible last year. The Packers will get decent value back if they decide to move on from Rodgers this offseason. 

Right...his arm isn't slipping. Give him an OL and skill players and he may well have another MVP type season. Which...is one of the reasons why I don't know if the Packers trade him. But I don't think he's dropped off from last year, I think he's been hurt and the talent has. And it looks like it's ticking up a bit. 

[homer]

maybe someone has covered this but good overview of Rodgers contract and cap situation:

 

This is from OverTheCap's Jason Fitzgerald: "Rodgers does not have a no trade clause in his contract so he could be traded to a team as well. The timing of the option should give the Packers all the way until the end of training camp to move him. The cap charge here would depend on when he was traded. If Rodgers were to be traded prior to June 1st the Packers would take on a $40.3M cap hit in 2023. If he was traded after June 1st it would be a $15.8M cap hit in 2023 with $24.5M due in 2024. This assumes that the Packers did not exercise the option before the trade. If the option is exercised then the trade number spikes to nearly $100 million. There should be no need to exercise the option until the last possible day."

[CheezWizHed]

I guess I assumed the option was always there to force the contract short.  I suppose if he was playing out of his mind, you pay it, but it is such a large part of the salary cap at that point, it most likely gets declined.

[LouisEly]

17 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

I guess I assumed the option was always there to force the contract short.  I suppose if he was playing out of his mind, you pay it, but it is such a large part of the salary cap at that point, it most likely gets declined.

No - the contract is structured such that it will cost them more to decline the option.  If they decline it, it is a $99M cap hit in 2023, or if after 6/1, a $75M cap hit in 2023 and $24M cap hit in 2024. 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/aaron-rodgers-3745/

• Declining either of the 2023-2024 options converts the base salary for that year into the bonus figure ($58.3M, $47M respectively)

[CheezWizHed]

7 hours ago, LouisEly said:

No - the contract is structured such that it will cost them more to decline the option.  If they decline it, it is a $99M cap hit in 2023, or if after 6/1, a $75M cap hit in 2023 and $24M cap hit in 2024. 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/aaron-rodgers-3745/

• Declining either of the 2023-2024 options converts the base salary for that year into the bonus figure ($58.3M, $47M respectively)

Sorry, I meant in 2024.  Seemed like the original intent was to make the contract a 2 year deal.  Possibly a third, but the cap hit grows nuts after that. 

[Brewcrew82]

Reports that Joe Barry is well on his way out (shocking I know), and that Jim Leonhard is the most likely candidate to take over. If I had to bet money right now, that's where it would be, with Leonhard already being LaFleur's top choice for the job in 2021. 

[Brewcrew82]

I don't think a Rodgers trade is going to happen this offseason. As @UpandIn said, his struggles this season are largely a result of a substandard Oline/young WR core and the thumb injury, and not a decline in his actual physical abilities, other than his speed. The people that matter (Gutekunst and LaFleur) are all saying the same thing they said last offseason re. wanting Rodgers back. And the way Rodgers' contract is structured essentially makes it a two-three year commitment between player and team. We should probably expect him to retire as a Green Bay Packer at this point.

[UpandIn]

18 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I don't think a Rodgers trade is going to happen this offseason. As @UpandIn said, his struggles this season are largely a result of a substandard Oline/young WR and the thumb injury, and not a decline in his actual physical abilities, other than his speed. The people that matter (Gutekunst and LaFleur) are all saying the same thing they said last offseason re. wanting Rodgers back. And the way Rodgers' contract is structured essentially makes it a two-three year commitment between player and team. We should probably expect him to retire as a Green Bay Packer at this point.

I don't know...they haven't seemed quite as...effusive in their comments. They've left a little window open by saying, "that's an off-season discussion," while also saying, they surely want him back.

They ALSO said they'd seen enough from Jordan Love in practice to decide on his 5th year option, that he was a starting QB and it certainly sounded like it was their plan to pick it up. 

I don't know that we should expect anything one way or the other. I'll just say...Love looked REALLY good. It was not garbage time. He looks different. He looked confident, he stepped in and let it rip. The ball to Jones vs Cover 2 was a throw few QBs can make. He's big, has all the tools. And I'm not getting excited by a stat line in a half vs the Eagles, it's about how he looked. All it means is that the talent is there and his confidence has grown(a lot) from the last time he saw the field vs KC. 

So if you keep Rodgers 2 more years, you could keep Love, pay them both a LOT of money in '24(more likely restructure Rodgers again, but still, pay Love 20M and probably 25M by that time). The cap is definitely taking a huge jump in '24. Not sure to in '23 though. 

If you can do it amicably, sit down and just talk to him and say, "we're not going to be able to retain everyone...kinda present it to him as the opportunity to finish his career elsewhere?

I think Rodgers is going to play next year.
I KNOW Rodgers can still be an elite QB.
I think Love can be a very good QB.

So the real question...seems to me to be do the Packers think they can get healthy, they can shore up the weaknesses, the defense was more schematic, can they bring back Jones, Amos(we'll know by the 1st day of the league year on a lot of those, especially Amos).

 

 

 

[UpandIn]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Reports that Joe Barry is well on his way out (shocking I know), and that Jim Leonhard is the most likely candidate to take over. If I had to bet money right now, that's where it would be, with Leonhard already being LaFleur's top choice for the job in 2021. 

Oh thank god. I haven't seen the reports, but I'm assuming you're not just reporting the "Wisconsin Heroics" that makes things up and there's a little more meat to it.

Eric Stokes, Gary's health and how he returns and what else they do at edge/DL are all key, but with the pieces we have, old Jimbo fits the players far better. 

Stokes allowed 50% comp pct last year, 80 this year. Was #1 in press man coverage last year with a grade of ~80 by PFF. Tyson Campbell meanwhile, the GA CB who was expected to go in the 1st(as opposed to Stokes who was projected as a mid 2nd) has really emerged this year.

The way Leonhard plays up front, he'll need those two pieces, in place. And I expect Quay will be used as he used Chenel...who on a side note is criminally mis-used in KC in that 4-3...he's a unique player. An elite run stuffer, great speed...great tackler, but not good in pass coverage...while also having the physicality to beat tackles on bull rushes and get to the QB. 

I'm not a "we need every Badger guy." In fact...there aren't many I think are good fits, but I'd sure love to see if KC would be willing to move off Chenel. Benton could also be a very nice addition(~4th round, maybe slips to 5th). 

 

There's also that big SOB from Baylor Siaka Ika who could be a very similar player to Vita Vea. Wanna get the most out of Clark, Wyatt, Quay and Campbell, get a 350 pound, mobile NT who can move the LOS and collapse the pocket. 

 

But really, just excited about the prospect of adding Leonhard. 

 

[UpandIn]

11 hours ago, LouisEly said:

No - the contract is structured such that it will cost them more to decline the option.  If they decline it, it is a $99M cap hit in 2023, or if after 6/1, a $75M cap hit in 2023 and $24M cap hit in 2024. 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/aaron-rodgers-3745/

• Declining either of the 2023-2024 options converts the base salary for that year into the bonus figure ($58.3M, $47M respectively)

And it's fully GTD.

[CheezWizHed]

15 hours ago, UpandIn said:

Oh thank god. I haven't seen the reports, but I'm assuming you're not just reporting the "Wisconsin Heroics" that makes things up and there's a little more meat to it.

This was my thought too.  Any reports of who the next DC will be before the current DC is even fired are completely immature. 

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, CheezWizHed said:

This was my thought too.  Any reports of who the next DC will be before the current DC is even fired are completely immature. 

My bad. It was the Wisconsin Heroics article and now that I've reread it, it is nothing more than speculation. 

Still, I don't see how Barry is retained with how significantly this defense has underperformed its talent level and the financial investments made on that end. Even if they somehow sneak in to the playoffs...And Jim Leonhard was LaFleur's number one choice over Barry and Evero, and is set to be unemployed at the end of December after making clear on previous occasions that he wanted to keep his young family in WI. Doesn't take too much to connect the dots. Anyways, that is the chatter in Madison...

[UpandIn]

4 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

This was my thought too.  Any reports of who the next DC will be before the current DC is even fired are completely immature. 

I'd say premature...but given this;

2 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

My bad. It was the Wisconsin Heroics article and now that I've reread it, it is nothing more than speculation.

Either could work(not referring to you Brewcrew82).
It's very possible there are "sources close" to Leonhard that may say he's interested in the Packers job. That was my initial guess.

 

It's all good though. That Wisconsin Heroics have gotten the  best of us before. My Dad called a few months ago telling me we'd signed Julio. 

It's...it's not as bad as believing we've traded a 1st round pick for Jerry Jeudy and Melvin Gordon from an Ian Rappaport fake Twitter page. What type of moron would....

[UpandIn]

3 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

My bad. It was the Wisconsin Heroics article and now that I've reread it, it is nothing more than speculation. 

Still, I don't see how Barry is retained with how significantly this defense has underperformed its talent level and the financial investments made on that end. Even if they somehow sneak in to the playoffs...And Jim Leonhard was LaFleur's number one choice over Barry and Evero, and is set to be unemployed at the end of December after making clear on previous occasions that he wanted to keep his young family in WI. Doesn't take too much to connect the dots. Anyways, that is the chatter in Madison...

I agree it makes sense and until it happens, if it happens, it'll be the source of speculation for those reasons. 

It makes a ton of sense. The only downside is that...people KEEP bringing up that he spent time with Mike Pettine/Rex Ryan. That's...driving me nuts. People want Vic Fangio(very good choice) but you don't hear how you can't hire him because of Pettine and Ryan ties. It's also the idea that because they run the same basic system, that Leonhard hasn't changed, evolved. That working with Dave Aranda(specifically helped him defend mobile QBs, so that's more relevant in the NFL now than ever). That doesn't count. 

Just forever stained due to the Pettine ties. 

Barry has to go. There are times you're not sure who deserves the blame. With position coaches this comes up a lot, but...in this case, it's abundantly clear.