Electric Vehicles

[Fear The Chorizo]

So much for just plugging those EVs in at home at night being ideal - although I think the premise is that a much larger fleet of EVs charging at night means most of the energy they receive comes from fossil fuel generation with how the grid is currently configured:

https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/339858-stanford-study-warns-against-ev-charging-at-night

There will need to be a ton more improvements to the existing grid well beyond anything currently planned, and that includes increased generating capacity from reliable energy sources that don't require massive battery storage, to support a larger fleet of EVs - just building a ton of charging stations isn't the answer (at least it is a start), particularly in geographical areas like Wisconsin that are not ideal for renewables due to inconsistent wind and extended periods of cold weather/snow....

FWIW, I work with a handful of BESS developers who are trying to add grid-scale battery storage infrastructure across midwest states to support existing and planned renewable projects, mostly solar but also some wind in very rural areas where grid loss kills the actual amount of energy delivered by remote wind power to population centers - lithium batteries perform quite a bit better than older lead-acid battery materials in the cold, but midwest winters are still a very big hurdle to clear for diminished reliance on coal/gas/nuclear in the region.

 

[igor67]

Perhaps a silly question, but since a geothermal system only requires about 8 ft of depth to get a more consistent temperature is there a reason below ground storage would be cost prohibitive?

[Fear The Chorizo]

On 9/29/2022 at 10:48 AM, igor67 said:

Perhaps a silly question, but since a geothermal system only requires about 8 ft of depth to get a more consistent temperature is there a reason below ground storage would be cost prohibitive?

Yes, there's actually a lot.  several factors related to fire codes, ventilation, ease of access for ongoing maintenance activities, and spacing needed for connection line runs would make trying to bury battery storage systems below the frost line in effort to set them in an environment that has a steadier state temperature very costly and frankly unsafe unless $$ was no object.  

Also, anytime you put something electrical in the subsurface there needs to be additional measures for storm water management and at times shallow groundwater so you don't create an electrical catastrophe.  Running conduit and electrical wiring subgrade is much different than what it would take to safely install massive lithium battery units underground and provide necessary access for ongoing maintenance.

[igor67]

Very helpful, the old Soudan mine location in northern MN (it is naturally ventilated) might be something of a unicorn location for something like that then. Most of it is not used as part of the State Park, It is very deep and used to house a large particle physics experiment. I'm not sure how water issues were dealt with, but I never saw any signs it was a problem the couple of times I was down there (multiple levels and half a mile down). Not sure if it is close enough to Duluth to be suitable for that type of back-up.

[Fear The Chorizo]

2 hours ago, igor67 said:

Very helpful, the old Soudan mine location in northern MN (it is naturally ventilated) might be something of a unicorn location for something like that then. Most of it is not used as part of the State Park, It is very deep and used to house a large particle physics experiment. I'm not sure how water issues were dealt with, but I never saw any signs it was a problem the couple of times I was down there (multiple levels and half a mile down). Not sure if it is close enough to Duluth to be suitable for that type of back-up.

Interesting....something like that would be a possibility if there were a significant generation source nearby that would be worth building a large battery storage facility.  Might still be some limitations on access for equipment and how a battery storage facility would be constructed.  Most of the current BESS units are built into shipping container-type enclosures for portability, but they weigh a ton and need some serious hoisting equipment during installation.  Doesn't mean a BESS unit couldn't be built at the actual facility in a different configuration that fits the space though.

Despite being naturally ventilated, I'd imagine it would still take a ton of engineering controls to make an underground mine space a practical site for battery storage due to the hazards they create when things go wrong or break down.  Lithium battery fires are no joke, and a big issue with large scale battery facilities is having adequate fire protection measures and spacing for the battery units so that when a fire might start in one cell it wouldn't just wipe out the entire facility.  That is much easier to do on a former farm field adjacent to a solar array and/or electrical substation, which is why we're seeing those facilities being constructed at those locations first.  It takes tons of water to essentially block a lithium fire from spreading until the area currently burning runs out of fuel - all the while that fire is emitting some really nasty and toxic gases that can also turn into an explosion and/or inhalation hazard in enclosed spaces.

[LouisEly]

On 9/28/2022 at 7:00 PM, homer said:

I think I-39 is included. The list is on page 67 (unless I'm reading this wrong. I just skimmed it)

https://wisconsindot.gov/Documents/projects/WEVI-plan-final-22-0914.pdf

 

Interesting that Google Maps has the exit numbers on the map but you can't search by freeway and exit number.

Interesting how the main population of the Fox Valley (Neenah/Menasha/Appleton) gets skipped as the stations break from Oshkosh (exit 119, Oshkosh Ave) to exit 150 (Kaukana, where there really isn't anything now, no shopping center/restaurants), especially with another one at exit 170.  College Avenue (exit 138) would make so much more sense.

Hopefully they put the one on exit 119 near Rocky Rococco's.

[MrTPlush]

12 hours ago, LouisEly said:

 

Interesting that Google Maps has the exit numbers on the map but you can't search by freeway and exit number.

Interesting how the main population of the Fox Valley (Neenah/Menasha/Appleton) gets skipped as the stations break from Oshkosh (exit 119, Oshkosh Ave) to exit 150 (Kaukana, where there really isn't anything now, no shopping center/restaurants), especially with another one at exit 170.  College Avenue (exit 138) would make so much more sense.

Hopefully they put the one on exit 119 near Rocky Rococco's.

I am guessing part of the logic is placing these where gaps are going to exist. Large population areas are going to have the demand to build them on their own. I skimmed through it and it looked like Wausau was skipped too. Of course they already have 8 Tesla  chargers and I think they are set to get another 8 non Tesla fast chargers at WalMart.

[homer]

[nate82]

I saw an article recently that Toyota is going full hybrid as the market right now is not demanding full electric cars.  This was backed up by the EV supply of 103 days which is double the amount for gas and hybrids.

It looks like Tesla is the only EV that is actually selling right now. Everything else has priced themselves out of the consumer demand even with the government incentives.

Let’s see overpriced and lacking features that the same gas cars have?  Yeah I can see why EV’s are in such demand…….

 

 

[Samurai Bucky]

9 minutes ago, nate82 said:

I saw an article recently that Toyota is going full hybrid as the market right now is not demanding full electric cars.  This was backed up by the EV supply of 103 days which is double the amount for gas and hybrids.

It looks like Tesla is the only EV that is actually selling right now. Everything else has priced themselves out of the consumer demand even with the government incentives.

Let’s see overpriced and lacking features that the same gas cars have?  Yeah I can see why EV’s are in such demand…….

 

 

Toyota is also spending a lot of $$$, I mean ¥¥¥, using hydrogen cells.  I have seen videos on how there is an infrastructure in parts of California.  It is interesting how the media doesn't address that much.

[owbc]

1 hour ago, nate82 said:

I saw an article recently that Toyota is going full hybrid as the market right now is not demanding full electric cars.  This was backed up by the EV supply of 103 days which is double the amount for gas and hybrids.

It looks like Tesla is the only EV that is actually selling right now. Everything else has priced themselves out of the consumer demand even with the government incentives.

Let’s see overpriced and lacking features that the same gas cars have?  Yeah I can see why EV’s are in such demand…….

 

 

The formula for EV transition is well known. You start with the luxury vehicles because they have higher margins and then you roll out the lower priced models a few years later. Everyone has them in the pipeline now. 

The Tesla Model Y is the #1 selling car in California. People are buying Teslas because they have the supercharger network. There is little demand for EVs that do not have a supercharger network, which is currently all EVs except Teslas. 

Toyota's strategy is risky. They are benefitting from people having range anxiety right now. Soon everyone is going to have access to Tesla's superchargers and every other charger will use the same plugs. It blows my mind that Toyota doesn't have a full EV Prius yet. They need to get those solid state batteries ramped up in production by the end of the decade at the latest. 

I'm in the market for an EV crossover. We currently have a plug-in hybrid SUV and it sucks (although 63 mpg is pretty good for an SUV). We regret not buying a Tesla. 

 

[LouisEly]

5 minutes ago, owbc said:

I'm in the market for an EV crossover. We currently have a plug-in hybrid SUV and it sucks (although 63 mpg is pretty good for an SUV). We regret not buying a Tesla.

This is what I'm looking at

Good range (up to 350 miles), and my understanding is that the Traffic Jam Assist will keep a steady distance between you and the vehicle in front of you in heavy stop/go traffic without going gas/brake/gas/brake/gas/brake/etc.  That is the #1 feature that I am looking for in a future vehicle.  Going gas/brake/gas/brake/gas/etc. in heavy traffic hurts my knee and has triggered my plantar fasciitis - I've had to operate the pedals with my left foot while I try to massage the cramp out of my right foot.  Adaptive cruise control, available on many vehicles, is not the same; I believe disengages if you come to a stop for more than 3-5 seconds and you need to get up to 25-30 in order to engage it.

[nate82]

11 minutes ago, owbc said:

Toyota's strategy is risky. They are benefitting from people having range anxiety right now. Soon everyone is going to have access to Tesla's superchargers and every other charger will use the same plugs. It blows my mind that Toyota doesn't have a full EV Prius yet. They need to get those solid state batteries ramped up in production by the end of the decade at the latest. 

I think Toyota is saving the inexpensive EV's for when their batteries are there.  Right now the demand for EV's is not there unless they are a Tesla.  Ford is able to use the superchargers now so there is one hurdle but even Ford is sitting at 80+ days of supply with their EV's.  The initial Mach 1 Mustang sold out but now dealerships are having a problem selling them.

I don't believe the consumer demand is there yet for even non luxury EV's. 

[nate82]

1 minute ago, LouisEly said:

This is what I'm looking at

Good range (up to 350 miles), and my understanding is that the Traffic Jam Assist will keep a steady distance between you and the vehicle in front of you in heavy stop/go traffic without going gas/brake/gas/brake/gas/brake/etc.  That is the #1 feature that I am looking for in a future vehicle.  Going gas/brake/gas/brake/gas/etc. in heavy traffic hurts my knee and has triggered my plantar fasciitis - I've had to operate the pedals with my left foot while I try to massage the cramp out of my right foot.  Adaptive cruise control, available on many vehicles, is not the same; I believe disengages if you come to a stop for more than 3-5 seconds and you need to get up to 25-30 in order to engage it.

Most modern cars have the adaptive cruise control already.  I bought a 2021 KIA K5 that has this as a basic option and it works rather well for the most part.  The only time it doesn't work is if someone cuts you off and it will slam on the brakes too much. 

[LouisEly]

1 minute ago, nate82 said:

Most modern cars have the adaptive cruise control already.  I bought a 2021 KIA K5 that has this as a basic option and it works rather well for the most part.  The only time it doesn't work is if someone cuts you off and it will slam on the brakes too much. 

As I said, adaptive cruise isn't the same.  Adaptive cruise doesn't work in heavy stop/go rush hour traffic.

[nate82]

6 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

As I said, adaptive cruise isn't the same.  Adaptive cruise doesn't work in heavy stop/go rush hour traffic.

Mine does. 

[homer]

As a non EV owner, I'm interested but I want to see more infrastructure before I go full EV. I'd do hybrid with my next vehicle.

[igor67]

Getting closer to needing to get at least 1 new vehicle and I'm definitely considering EV.

[wallus]

5 hours ago, igor67 said:

Getting closer to needing to get at least 1 new vehicle and I'm definitely considering EV.

Do it. I have been an EV owner in a small town with no infrastructure. There has been one time in 3 years where I wish I had an ICE vehicle. The number of times I am glad to have an EV are quite often. As many manufacturers are opening up to the Tesla Supercharger system, that will remove any regrets I could have with an EV. 

When it comes to EVs not selling, dealers were still adding ADM to the sticker price when I was looking a couple of months ago. It was nice looking but I'm not spending $90,000 on a Mustang Mach-e after fees.

[nate82]

6 hours ago, LouisEly said:

As I said, adaptive cruise isn't the same.  Adaptive cruise doesn't work in heavy stop/go rush hour traffic.

Ahhh nvm I miss read what you said.  You mean parking lot rush hour traffic.  Yeah that won't work then.

[owbc]

19 hours ago, LouisEly said:

This is what I'm looking at

Good range (up to 350 miles), and my understanding is that the Traffic Jam Assist will keep a steady distance between you and the vehicle in front of you in heavy stop/go traffic without going gas/brake/gas/brake/gas/brake/etc.  That is the #1 feature that I am looking for in a future vehicle.  Going gas/brake/gas/brake/gas/etc. in heavy traffic hurts my knee and has triggered my plantar fasciitis - I've had to operate the pedals with my left foot while I try to massage the cramp out of my right foot.  Adaptive cruise control, available on many vehicles, is not the same; I believe disengages if you come to a stop for more than 3-5 seconds and you need to get up to 25-30 in order to engage it.

The nice thing about EVs is that you rarely use the brake pedal. You wouldn't need it in stop/go traffic. Or if you have a Tesla you can have autopilot drive the car in that situation. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

21 hours ago, homer said:

As a non EV owner, I'm interested but I want to see more infrastructure before I go full EV. I'd do hybrid with my next vehicle.

Not to mention proof that solid state batteries are a viable option (both economically and performance) for much more widespread EV use - one thing that's always been a big issue with solid state batteries is they're not great in climates with large temperature fluctuations, namely cold...

I personally think the automotive industry should push hard into hydrogen fuel cell options for personal vehicles and leave EV as a more niche segment.  When considering ramifications of scaling various technologies to fit global demand, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are really the only current option to significantly replace ICE vehicles without creating a bunch of unintended environmental and power grid capacity problems.  Once the technology is fully developed to utilize hydrogen as a fuel, I think the infrastructure changes (both nationally and globally) could happen much more easily than what it would take to support a 50%+ fleet of battery-powered EVs on the planet.

[homer]

17 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Not to mention proof that solid state batteries are a viable option (both economically and performance) for much more widespread EV use - one thing that's always been a big issue with solid state batteries is they're not great in climates with large temperature fluctuations, namely cold...

I personally think the automotive industry should push hard into hydrogen fuel cell options for personal vehicles and leave EV as a more niche segment.  When considering ramifications of scaling various technologies to fit global demand, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are really the only current option to significantly replace ICE vehicles without creating a bunch of unintended environmental and power grid capacity problems.  Once the technology is fully developed to utilize hydrogen as a fuel, I think the infrastructure changes (both nationally and globally) could happen much more easily than what it would take to support a 50%+ fleet of battery-powered EVs on the planet.

I'm not talking about solid state batteries as those probably won't be commercially available for a few years at best.

Hydrogen is very interesting to me not only as a fuel cell option but an energy source in general. 

[owbc]

On 7/15/2023 at 5:40 AM, homer said:

I'm not talking about solid state batteries as those probably won't be commercially available for a few years at best.

Hydrogen is very interesting to me not only as a fuel cell option but an energy source in general. 

We haven't figured out how to mass produce hydrogen with green energy. 

The pressing need to reduce CO2 emissions in the next 1-2 decades means that we have to do it first by scaling mature technologies and making incremental improvements from there. In the short term we don't have the time to hope that emerging technologies can take over. 

As we move into the 2040s/2050s some of these other less advanced technologies may take over. So in the short term it's going to be the age of the Lithium-Ion battery -- not just for cars either but also for mass storage of wind and solar power. Texas is already doing this and is scaling it quickly. It is also being done on the scale of individual homes. Solar in particular has gotten incredibly cheap and the batteries solve the main problem with generation depending on the sun and weather. 

Some interesting news yesterday with major automakers investing $1 billion in an EV charging network. I have a feeling we're going to start to see superchargers popping up everywhere in the next few years -- especially at restaurants/retailers along major highways. 

[nate82]

27 minutes ago, owbc said:

As we move into the 2040s/2050s some of these other less advanced technologies may take over. So in the short term it's going to be the age of the Lithium-Ion battery -- not just for cars either but also for mass storage of wind and solar power. Texas is already doing this and is scaling it quickly. It is also being done on the scale of individual homes. Solar in particular has gotten incredibly cheap and the batteries solve the main problem with generation depending on the sun and weather. 

I still believe methane is probably the best option at least for heavy equipment.  Methane when mixed correctly can have lower emissions than diesel.  The diesel engines would also be a lot easier and cheaper to upgrade and adapt to accept methane.  The US also has a lot of methane either naturally or from our large landfills.  It is also a good renewable when mixed correctly to emit lower green house gases. 

I don't think methane is a good source for consumers but for heavy construction equipment and even semi trucks this would be an improvement over diesel without sacrificing efficiency.

I think for hydrogen the biggest improvement for that will be with airplanes especially commercial jet airplanes.