Electric Vehicles

[LouisEly]

As expected, Fisker filed for Chapter 11.  I really hope that a bigger automaker buys the rights to the Ocean because it is a really great vehicle, period, not just EV.  Too many ICE automakers trying to build EVs as extensions of current vehicle lines who don't know what they're doing (I'm looking at you, Lexus - 200 mile range for the 450RZ???).

[BrewerFan]

Rivian partners with Volkswagen.

 

It seemed like a partnership was inevitable(or they'd just go under), but I was thinking Apple might partner with them. They clearly have the capital or then TSLA...but Volkswagen is interesting. 

Great vehicles, just a pain in some places to charge.

 

[owbc]

17 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

Rivian partners with Volkswagen.

 

It seemed like a partnership was inevitable(or they'd just go under), but I was thinking Apple might partner with them. They clearly have the capital or then TSLA...but Volkswagen is interesting. 

Great vehicles, just a pain in some places to charge.

 

Isn't Amazon / Bezos the biggest investor in Rivian?

They are everywhere in Seattle. The R3 will be massively popular with the Subaru crowd if they can get it out fast enough. I think the biggest issue right now is there is a race against the clock as pretty much every automaker is going to release EVs in the $30-45K price range in the next 2-3 years. 

 

[BrewerFan]

6 hours ago, owbc said:

Isn't Amazon / Bezos the biggest investor in Rivian?

They are everywhere in Seattle. The R3 will be massively popular with the Subaru crowd if they can get it out fast enough. I think the biggest issue right now is there is a race against the clock as pretty much every automaker is going to release EVs in the $30-45K price range in the next 2-3 years. 

 

I'm sure you're right, but the only thing I know he's invested in is QBTS...which I threw a few bucks into in a totally speculative move.

I just said Apple as they were working on an EV and scrapped it and I thought that could be a match or TSLA as they're already the leaders. 

I think an equally big issue is the charging. Most automakers have come to an agreement with TSLA to use their ports and battery tech IIRC save for TM. Not sure what Toyota is going to do. I love their vehicles, especially their new Tundra's, but...unless their tech is better than TSLA. 

It'll be interesting to watch how things evolve and grow in the next decade. 

[nate82]

21 hours ago, owbc said:

Isn't Amazon / Bezos the biggest investor in Rivian?

I believe all or nearly all of their EV delivery vehicles are Rivian. 

[owbc]

18 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

I'm sure you're right, but the only thing I know he's invested in is QBTS...which I threw a few bucks into in a totally speculative move.

I just said Apple as they were working on an EV and scrapped it and I thought that could be a match or TSLA as they're already the leaders. 

I think an equally big issue is the charging. Most automakers have come to an agreement with TSLA to use their ports and battery tech IIRC save for TM. Not sure what Toyota is going to do. I love their vehicles, especially their new Tundra's, but...unless their tech is better than TSLA. 

It'll be interesting to watch how things evolve and grow in the next decade. 

I haven't driven a Rivian so I can't comment on the technology, but Tesla is light years ahead of everything else I have driven in terms of technology. It's like using an iPhone while every other car out there is a flip phone. EVs are basically smartphones with wheels, so it's a race to see if big tech can build car factories or if legacy automakers can build tech. It's just an incredible travesty that Musk has derailed Tesla with his stupid Cybertruck, they could have become the largest automaker in the world and they still might, but they are headed for the toilet until he is out of the picture. Which I bet happens within a year or two once the Cybertruck has time to fully flop. They have also made some poor decisions on FSD (using cameras instead of lidar) which has put them behind Waymo and some of the Chinese automakers. 

Rented a BMW iX earlier this year and found the tech to be incredibly complicated and clunky compared with Tesla which is a shame since that thing is like a $90K+ car. We also used to have a plug-in Audi Q5 and traded it in pretty much entirely due to the technology sucking, plus it had pathetic storage+legroom because of the necessity of having both an ICE engine and a battery. Hated the technology in that car as well, it makes me angry just thinking about how the bluetooth never worked properly with two phones in the car. The Volvo XC40 that my wife drives also has outdated technology but at least Android auto works most of the time. 

Toyota is obviously all-in on hybrids right now...I think it's a very smart strategic decision in terms of selling practical cars that make sense right now, especially for people who don't have the ability to add home charging. If you do have charging, I can't imagine why you would buy a plug-in hybrid given the price and quality of EVs like Hyundai/Kia/VW options in particular. My 70 year old parents recently needed a new car, they are loyal Toyota customers and have a Rav4 but they ended up buying a VW ID4 and getting a home charger installed. They've had it for like 6 months now and I don't think they have ever used or needed a supercharger. 

[BrewerFan]

6 hours ago, owbc said:

I haven't driven a Rivian so I can't comment on the technology, but Tesla is light years ahead of everything else I have driven in terms of technology. It's like using an iPhone while every other car out there is a flip phone. EVs are basically smartphones with wheels, so it's a race to see if big tech can build car factories or if legacy automakers can build tech. It's just an incredible travesty that Musk has derailed Tesla with his stupid Cybertruck, they could have become the largest automaker in the world and they still might, but they are headed for the toilet until he is out of the picture. Which I bet happens within a year or two once the Cybertruck has time to fully flop. They have also made some poor decisions on FSD (using cameras instead of lidar) which has put them behind Waymo and some of the Chinese automakers. 

I don't know what's going on with Musk, but I think the Musk that was running TSLA before...is one of the great CEOs and if they settle the compensation issue, which seems to be settled...I'd buy back in(I may either way given the drop and the potential for growth). 

I have other issues with Musk and questions, but he did an AMAZING job of pushing TSLA to the forefront. 

With regard to Riviana, that truck may be the coolest vehicles I've driven. 

I don't understand his reluctance to use Lidar sensors. That seems to be the Goldstar, but I believe it's August 8th, they're going to unveil the autonomous taxis? That's a company that could 3x, 4x, 5x the next 5 years. More growth than my main holding, NVDA(which is awesome, but I'm HIGHLY skeptical of the projections some have on them moving forward, the growth HAS to slow unless the AI revolution is going to be even bigger than expected...and it's expected to be big). So I'd have to take money out of TSM, GOOGL, AMZN, AAPL(which is about to blow up as 95% of their devices will not support their AI Apps, so they're about to go through a growth period). 

Quote

Rented a BMW iX earlier this year and found the tech to be incredibly complicated and clunky compared with Tesla which is a shame since that thing is like a $90K+ car. We also used to have a plug-in Audi Q5 and traded it in pretty much entirely due to the technology sucking, plus it had pathetic storage+legroom because of the necessity of having both an ICE engine and a battery. Hated the technology in that car as well, it makes me angry just thinking about how the bluetooth never worked properly with two phones in the car. The Volvo XC40 that my wife drives also has outdated technology but at least Android auto works most of the time. 

I can't really speak in any informed manner on any other EVs. I've driven a TSLA, but only for a test drive. That's pretty much it. The Rivian and a TSLA and I need/want a truck. I don't know how bad the Cybertruck is, I haven't driven it. I don't mind the aesthetics like others do and haven't done the research to see what the problems may be. 

When I buy an EV, I'll be far more informed. 

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Toyota is obviously all-in on hybrids right now...I think it's a very smart strategic decision in terms of selling practical cars that make sense right now, especially for people who don't have the ability to add home charging. If you do have charging, I can't imagine why you would buy a plug-in hybrid given the price and quality of EVs like Hyundai/Kia/VW options in particular. My 70 year old parents recently needed a new car, they are loyal Toyota customers and have a Rav4 but they ended up buying a VW ID4 and getting a home charger installed. They've had it for like 6 months now and I don't think they have ever used or needed a supercharger. 

Just speaking for myself, when I drive my Truck, I'm driving up to Northern Wisconsin(350 Miles) to my Cabin or our families and I'm taking an ATV and a SXS. When I get up there, there are very limited options for charging. I'm ~15 miles away from even a Gas Station. I could get a charging station in there, but EV trucks, I just haven't found one that I like. The newer Tundra's, I guess I wouldn't say they're real "affordable," but relatively speaking...they are. The top-of-the-line, loaded Tundra Hybrids are like driving a luxury SUV and with the rebates and they're just REALLY trying hard to move them, I was able to get some things added, like the Tonneau cover and a few other smaller things. 

The main thing is the resale price. I thought it was BS, but 5-year Tacoma is 87% and for a Tundra it's 81%. I swore I'd never buy new, but a 2-year-old Capstone('22 is when they started making them I believe) were nearly the same price when you added the other benefits. The warranties are also among the best in the market.

 

For someone who drove kinda beaters for my 20s and much of my 30s trying to pay off investment properties or save to invest, it's the first nice vehicle I've owned. 

I think I'll consider an EV car in 2-3 years. A Tesla Model Y perhaps? Something that is cheap just for driving to work, or home. I'll see how it goes, but I did plan for putting in a couple of home chargers for the future as I've got little doubt by the time I'm ~50, EVs will be close to, if not half the market(not buying they'll stop making the ICE by then, but it's a target). 

Or, the bZ4X, but I want to wait for them to work out the bugs first. It's also just more expensive than I'd like to go. So, we'll see. 

 

EVs are the future though. Oh, and I wonder if the reason Volkswagen partnered with Rivian was due to the whole emissions issues they had? That was a big issue for them obviously. That just kinda popped into my head. 

[BrewerFan]

10 hours ago, nate82 said:

I believe all or nearly all of their EV delivery vehicles are Rivian. 

I did not know that...they're certainly big and have a lot of storage. But I do wonder if that'd preclude AAPL from jumping in. How much does AMZN even see AAPL as a rival?

I should know this. I know AWS is a huge part of AMZNs business and AAPL has their own cloud storage, but would they stop using Rivian if Apple would hve been the company that would have partnered with them?have

[MrTPlush]

On 6/26/2024 at 6:17 PM, BrewerFan said:

Rivian partners with Volkswagen.

 

It seemed like a partnership was inevitable(or they'd just go under), but I was thinking Apple might partner with them. They clearly have the capital or then TSLA...but Volkswagen is interesting. 

Great vehicles, just a pain in some places to charge.

 

A partnership attaches you to a trusted name though and I also imagine it gets you into their network of dealers. Apple wouldn't achieve either of those things.

Tesla is on their own, but that isn't without huge struggles/difficulties. I don't know that I ever see a dedicated electric brand succeeding in the US (minus Tesla). 

[Fear The Chorizo]

Honest question here -

With the current administration already pushing back some of the timelines for when automakers have to have certain significant percentages of their new vehicles be EVs due to "unforeseen" lack of demand earlier this year, growing sentiment/skepticism internationally and even more so domestically about emissions/production mandates that essentially will force consumers to buy vehicles they don't want, and the initial takeaways from Thursday night, aren't the current mandates in plenty of jeopardy of ever reaching their goals and quite possibly being reversed/eliminated about a year from now?

Govmint Mandates are not the way to dramatically increase the number of consumers driving EVs - innovation and technological advancements in batteries and manufacturing should be able to drive consumer demand and increase supply if EVs are the answer to widespread ICE vehicle replacements (hint:  They are not).  As long as EV carmakers are trying to make a "smartphone with wheels", they are going to price themselves out of far too many markets globally and even in the US for them to have more than a niche consumer base.  Currently, there are a large percentage of EV owners who actually prefer their next vehicle to be powered by an ICE.

[LouisEly]

2 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

aren't the current mandates in plenty of jeopardy of ever reaching their goals and quite possibly being reversed/eliminated about a year from now?

I don't know, and I honestly don't care about the mandates.  I like some EV's (particularly the Fisker Ocean, and some other companies that built them from the ground-up including the Hummer EV) because they are really cool vehicles, they are really fun to drive (faster than ICE vehicles), and I'd love to have a gas station in my own garage.

[igor67]

Well I think Tesla's bigger problem than the Cybertruck is designs that increase repair costs. Cheapish on the front end, but having to replace a car like a smartphone I don't see as a winning strategy. I haven't had any strong comparisons for my Bolt yet other than a $20 tire rotation less often than a $50+ oil change is a good trade off so far. 

[LouisEly]

On 6/28/2024 at 12:08 PM, owbc said:

It's just an incredible travesty that Musk has derailed Tesla with his stupid Cybertruck

Talked with a guy yesterday who does vehicle sales for a big dealership and he said that Cybertrucks are going for $30K over list price.  I wouldn't say at this point that they're "stupid".  He said that the people who have been buying Hummer EVs are trading them in for Cybertrucks.

[homer]

4 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

Talked with a guy yesterday who does vehicle sales for a big dealership and he said that Cybertrucks are going for $30K over list price.  I wouldn't say at this point that they're "stupid".  He said that the people who have been buying Hummer EVs are trading them in for Cybertrucks.

That tracks.

I saw one rolling around Milwaukee last week. They are u-g-l-y.

[BrewerFan]

On 6/29/2024 at 10:38 AM, Fear The Chorizo said:

Honest question here -

if EVs are the answer to widespread ICE vehicle replacements (hint:  They are not).  As long as EV carmakers are trying to make a "smartphone with wheels", they are going to price themselves out of far too many markets globally and even in the US for them to have more than a niche consumer base. 

Doesn't seem like an honest question when you're answering part of it with (hint-they're not).

I also don't get the "pricing themselves out," or the "smartphones on wheels."

They're cheaper to maintain and cheaper to power.

The infrastructure needs to change and yes, obviously they need to improve the battery pricing and they need to manufacture on a larger scale to bring the prices down, but you'll have a hard time being a nicer vehicle than the Tesla Model Y for the price. 

 

We're also effectively in the bottom of the 2nd inning with EVs, so I'm not sure why you'd say they're NEVER going to be a replacement for ICE? I don't know how you could ever say that EVs won't replace ICEs. I can see how you'd say they won't in the next 10 years, but it's pretty much inevitable, particularly if you can you go to the sodium-ion batteries rather than lithium, just another way to make it cheaper. 

We're not close to that, and 2034 was always ambitious, but it's coming. 

[BrewerFan]

11 hours ago, igor67 said:

Well I think Tesla's bigger problem than the Cybertruck is designs that increase repair costs. Cheapish on the front end, but having to replace a car like a smartphone I don't see as a winning strategy. I haven't had any strong comparisons for my Bolt yet other than a $20 tire rotation less often than a $50+ oil change is a good trade off so far. 

I don't follow why you'd have to "replace the car like a smartphone?"

All I've seen is that the cost of maintenance for an EV is ~40-50% less than an ICE.

I don't know about the Cybertrucks...or that it'd be good measure as they're relatively new, but I need you to explain that to me. With the amount of tech in the car, it seems more likely you'll have to take your car in for the new updates if anything, but...trading them in like an Iphone, I don't understand that. 

[BrewerFan]

On 6/29/2024 at 10:09 AM, MrTPlush said:

A partnership attaches you to a trusted name though and I also imagine it gets you into their network of dealers. Apple wouldn't achieve either of those things.

Tesla is on their own, but that isn't without huge struggles/difficulties. I don't know that I ever see a dedicated electric brand succeeding in the US (minus Tesla). 

EVER? I think people are lacking imagination.

30 years say...cheaper to buy, maintain, you'll likely see "charging" stations replace/supplemented at the gas stations around the country. 

Apple doesn't have either of those things, but they've got the cache that I could see them marketing it effectively. And you've got a whole generation of people who grew up on Apple Products, I don't think it'd be hard to envision, after they scrapped their own EV Car, to pivot to Rivian.

But I take your point, they're starting from scratch.

I'd also say I'd bet 15 years ago it'd be really had to envision people saying they could see Tesla succeed in the US as an EV only brand. 

 

I think perhaps the timeline and the Gov't mandating this has created more pushback, but the advancements they're making in EVs, I really think the demand for them is just going to grow. 

[igor67]

It's interpretive on my side, the maintenance is supposed to be lower largely based on a lot fewer parts in an EV. But there have been a lot of real use stories pointing to higher repair costs for the EVs. Without hardcore sourcing those stories it is possible that they are shoddy slant pieces, but I think there is truth in them and it is reflected by the fact that Tesla's dominated the early EV market and the entire design of those made repairs inherently more difficult and challenging compared to other EV brands. Hence my comparing it to a smartphone. It looks great at first has all kinds of bells and whistles, but it doesn't last/ isn't readily repairable. Not claiming to be definitive just my attempt to reconcile the different info out there.

[nate82]

1 minute ago, BrewerFan said:

I don't know about the Cybertrucks...or that it'd be good measure as they're relatively new, but I need you to explain that to me. With the amount of tech in the car, it seems more likely you'll have to take your car in for the new updates if anything, but...trading them in like an Iphone, I don't understand that. 

I see you know nothing about technology.  You can't just do a software upgrade on a piece of equipment that is not compatible with the software update.  Try updating an original Iphone to the most recent Iphone software.  It is not possible for a lot of reasons but one being the chipset not being compatible with the new software.  

The software is written for a specific CPU.  In this case it will be for one set of instructions for a set of CPU's.  If your old EV doesn't have this CPU then you can't get the software update you are stuck with the old software.  Don't even think about upgrading the board because that will be a proprietary board for the manufacturer and they will charge an arm and a leg for these boards.  The media control unit on a Tesla costs about $3k.  Expect to pay at least that if not more to get your car upgraded to the newest software. 

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, igor67 said:

It's interpretive on my side, the maintenance is supposed to be lower largely based on a lot fewer parts in an EV. But there have been a lot of real use stories pointing to higher repair costs for the EVs. Without hardcore sourcing those stories it is possible that they are shoddy slant pieces, but I think there is truth in them and it is reflected by the fact that Tesla's dominated the early EV market and the entire design of those made repairs inherently more difficult and challenging compared to other EV brands. Hence my comparing it to a smartphone. It looks great at first has all kinds of bells and whistles, but it doesn't last/ isn't readily repairable. Not claiming to be definitive just my attempt to reconcile the different info out there.

I'm just going off the studies I've seen;

https://www.treehugger.com/owning-ev-cheaper-ice-vehicle-study-5198102#:~:text=The study found maintenance costs of battery electric,as you do with an internal combustion vehicle.

The thing is, this is still early in the...'Ev Revolution.' As they expand the market and you have more people trained, the battery tech improves, I think this will skew even more towards EV.

 

52 minutes ago, nate82 said:

I see you know nothing about technology. 

What an obnoxiously arrogant and condescending statement.

Tesla's have regular updates. They're using NVDA Chips, there's no reason you should have to trade in your car every couple years like a cell phone because the hardware isn't compatible, and if the hardware isn't compatible, it's a BIIT cheaper to replace some of the hardware than the entire car. 

 

3K also isn't an "Arm and a leg." It's a Car. A new iPhoneTesla costs ~1500 dollars.

But what year Teslas can you not drive or have to be traded or discarded like an old phone in because their hardware doesn't support the update? 

Not which year Tesla's have hardware that doesn't support the FSD software that they're licensing, which Tesla's can you not drive due to the inability to update the latest software?

[BrewerFan]

12 hours ago, homer said:

That tracks.

I saw one rolling around Milwaukee last week. They are u-g-l-y.

I know I'm in the minority, but I think they look pretty cool. And the space and functionality of them? 

But this brings us back to why I thought TSLA and Rivian would have been great(but only when Rivian got more desperate and was closer to running out of money). You could add those Rivian vehicles, add some midsize SUVs and that's a pretty nice group of vehicles. But...I digress. 

[LouisEly]

11 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

3K also isn't an "Arm and a leg." It's a Car.

Exactly.  Repairs are expensive no matter what type of vehicle.  Front struts on my 2016 Lincoln MKX needed to be replaced - $2,300 at the dealership, $1,600 at Pep Boys (plus 10.25% Chicago sales tax).  Pushing 100K miles, replacing the spark plugs is $600 (dealer) / $500 (Pep Boys/local shop).

[BrewerFan]

4 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

Exactly.  Repairs are expensive no matter what type of vehicle.  Front struts on my 2016 Lincoln MKX needed to be replaced - $2,300 at the dealership, $1,600 at Pep Boys (plus 10.25% Chicago sales tax).  Pushing 100K miles, replacing the spark plugs is $600 (dealer) / $500 (Pep Boys/local shop).

For the time and miles and the lack of gas...and in 2024? Yeah, that's minimal. And that's only if you want new features. You can still drive the car as it is, you just may not get the stuff they're coming out with. 

You buy a new Truck, you're probably spending 5-6K in different modifications depending on what you need. A winch, bumper. The point is that cars are expensive. 

EVs are cheaper and they're going to be getting a LOT cheaper over the next 10-15 years. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

EVs are cheaper and they're going to be getting a LOT cheaper over the next 10-15 years. 

It's not that they're going to be alot cheaper, it's that the cost of ICE vehicles is going to be forced upwards to make those costs of new vehicles similar based on manufacturing limitations and continued strong demand for them.  That's already been happening for years.  If those manufacturing limitations are taken away and the incentives are removed, EVs are more expensive.

And I stated EVs "are not the answer" on a global scale multiple times much earlier in this thread based on the limitations they themselves have with battery technology, the waste streams that scale of production would generate, etc.

The notion that EVs are cheaper to maintain is based on the fact the timeframe most non-engine related components of a vehicle need to be replaced (besides the routine tire/brake replacements that are increasingly more $$$ for any type of vehicle) falls in line with the typical lifespan of an EV battery.  Drive an EV until the battery needs replacement outside of its warranty and it's time to trade it in (unless you want to drop $8-$20K for a new one to throw in your ~8 yr old vehicle).  So instead, people with the kind of means to buy an EV in the first place just buy a new one for close to six figures and say "well, it's cheaper to maintain".  If well-taken care of and maintained, ICE vehicles can remain on the road just as long if not longer than EVs without being stuck with the decision to replace their engine or buy a brand new vehicle instead.

[owbc]

2 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

If well-taken care of and maintained, ICE vehicles can remain on the road just as long if not longer than EVs without being stuck with the decision to replace their engine or buy a brand new vehicle instead.

Which costs time and money???

It's not hard to see what's going to happen...eventually EV sales will gain critical mass (as has already happened in several other countries), they will naturally become cheaper than ICE vehicles to manufacture (whether they actually sell for cheaper is another matter), and chargers will start appearing everywhere. 

About 5-10 years after that, gas stations and ICE maintenance shops will rapidly disappear and/or pivot to EV services. ICE drivers will be the ones with range anxiety when gas stations stop selling gas and only have chargers instead. It will become difficult and expensive to get simple things like oil changes done. That will leave collectors and enthusiasts as the only ICE vehicle owners. I'm guessing that probably won't be until the 2040s or 2050s, but the trajectory is pretty clear. 

I don't know where you get the idea that the battery needs to be replaced. EV batteries are so good that they are starting to be repurposed for solar storage after being used in cars. Even my old Toyota Prius hybrid battery was 15 years old and still working fine when I sold that car.