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Brewer Fanatic
Posted
17 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

EVER? I think people are lacking imagination.

30 years say...cheaper to buy, maintain, you'll likely see "charging" stations replace/supplemented at the gas stations around the country. 

Apple doesn't have either of those things, but they've got the cache that I could see them marketing it effectively. And you've got a whole generation of people who grew up on Apple Products, I don't think it'd be hard to envision, after they scrapped their own EV Car, to pivot to Rivian.

But I take your point, they're starting from scratch.

I'd also say I'd bet 15 years ago it'd be really had to envision people saying they could see Tesla succeed in the US as an EV only brand. 

 

I think perhaps the timeline and the Gov't mandating this has created more pushback, but the advancements they're making in EVs, I really think the demand for them is just going to grow. 

Tesla did it, but they also had an advantage no one else will ever get...they were the only one trying to do it. Until the push in the last 5 years or so (thanks to the government pushing for it) no automaker really tried to challenge them. Would Tesla have done as well or even survived had the other automakers jumped onto the EV bandwagon? Honestly, I am not sure they would have. 

Now that all the automakers are hopping on the bandwagon it makes it just about impossible for a company to try and challenge that. It is like many other industries where the ability to get notable market share is hard to do and be profitable because the second you try they will all squish you like the little fly you are.

Could a massive company like Apple try to push their way in? Maybe, they have the funds to do it....but I also think they would need to motivation AND a crazy dedicated guy like Musk running the ship. A lot of Musk's success is the fact he just goes all out and is willing to fail. He built his value on that. Apple is already a massive raging success, so it is hard to see them taking a risky plunge into automaking. 

Posted
On 7/1/2024 at 11:06 AM, owbc said:

Which costs time and money???

It's not hard to see what's going to happen...eventually EV sales will gain critical mass (as has already happened in several other countries), they will naturally become cheaper than ICE vehicles to manufacture (whether they actually sell for cheaper is another matter), and chargers will start appearing everywhere. 

About 5-10 years after that, gas stations and ICE maintenance shops will rapidly disappear and/or pivot to EV services. ICE drivers will be the ones with range anxiety when gas stations stop selling gas and only have chargers instead. It will become difficult and expensive to get simple things like oil changes done. That will leave collectors and enthusiasts as the only ICE vehicle owners. I'm guessing that probably won't be until the 2040s or 2050s, but the trajectory is pretty clear. 

I don't know where you get the idea that the battery needs to be replaced. EV batteries are so good that they are starting to be repurposed for solar storage after being used in cars. Even my old Toyota Prius hybrid battery was 15 years old and still working fine when I sold that car. 

What would that "critical mass" amount be?  As of November 2023, approximately 0.9% of registered vehicles in the US are electric.  

https://explodingtopics.com/blog/electric-vehicles-stats

Also, convenience stores are a LONG ways away from moving ahead with a widespread push to replace filling stations with EV charging stations (or even adding a charging station or two to their existing gas station building).  The utility fees charged to the entity operating the charging station are just too high to make that a feasible strategy at this point.  It's not nearly as simple as "just throw a bunch of new chargers everywhere and suddenly the percentage of registered vehicles in the US that are EVs will jump from <2% to 50%.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/18/business/ev-chargers-convenience-store/index.html

As for EV battery replacement - used under optimum conditions in ideal, temperate climates, yes an EV battery can outlive the functionality of the light passenger vehicle it powers - the exact same thing can be said of an ICE.  However, under harsh conditions (extreme heat/cold/season fluctuations) or heavy use, that lifespan is much dicier for an EV compared to an ICE vehicle.

https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a31875141/electric-car-battery-life/

Regionally, particularly in urban areas (where frankly the push should be to reduce cars altogether), I can see EVs taking up a solid percentage of passenger vehicles decades from now.  That's also simply an easier area to add the charging stations necessary to support the scaling you're hoping to see compared to moderately rural or even suburban areas that would require significant grid infrastructure upgrades.  But if it's just EVs versus ICE vehicles, there will always be a large percentage of ICE vehicles on the road and manufactured across the globe and domestically.  The hybrid vehicle makes a ton of sense, combining the best of both technologies and using them in the same vehicle - particularly in vehicles whose primary use is for more than hauling two people home 5 miles from the grocery store.

 

Community Moderator
Posted
1 hour ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

What would that "critical mass" amount be?  As of November 2023, approximately 0.9% of registered vehicles in the US are electric.  

https://explodingtopics.com/blog/electric-vehicles-stats

Also, convenience stores are a LONG ways away from moving ahead with a widespread push to replace filling stations with EV charging stations (or even adding a charging station or two to their existing gas station building).  The utility fees charged to the entity operating the charging station are just too high to make that a feasible strategy at this point.  It's not nearly as simple as "just throw a bunch of new chargers everywhere and suddenly the percentage of registered vehicles in the US that are EVs will jump from <2% to 50%.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/18/business/ev-chargers-convenience-store/index.html

As for EV battery replacement - used under optimum conditions in ideal, temperate climates, yes an EV battery can outlive the functionality of the light passenger vehicle it powers - the exact same thing can be said of an ICE.  However, under harsh conditions (extreme heat/cold/season fluctuations) or heavy use, that lifespan is much dicier for an EV compared to an ICE vehicle.

https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a31875141/electric-car-battery-life/

Regionally, particularly in urban areas (where frankly the push should be to reduce cars altogether), I can see EVs taking up a solid percentage of passenger vehicles decades from now.  That's also simply an easier area to add the charging stations necessary to support the scaling you're hoping to see compared to moderately rural or even suburban areas that would require significant grid infrastructure upgrades.  But if it's just EVs versus ICE vehicles, there will always be a large percentage of ICE vehicles on the road and manufactured across the globe and domestically.  The hybrid vehicle makes a ton of sense, combining the best of both technologies and using them in the same vehicle - particularly in vehicles whose primary use is for more than hauling two people home 5 miles from the grocery store.

 

I think you're underestimating how fast a new technology can take hold, especially when the government uses incentives to speed it up. And the range + battery capabilities of the current generation of EVs is the worst that they will ever be. I agree that range anxiety and longevity are both concerns that are holding people up right now, but that won't be the case for long. Especially since the driving performance of EVs is far and away superior. Once the price and range are similar to ICE cars, it's over. 

China EV sales (including plug-in hybrids) are up to 50% of new vehicle sales after being under 5% in 2020. The US is currently around 6-7%. So we should have no problem of hitting the government's 50% goal by 2030, even if we adopt slower than China which will likely be the case. 

Norway was a little slower, they went from 1.4% in 2011 to around 90% currently. But the technology now is quite a bit better than it was 5-10 years ago. 

The average lifespan of a car is 12 years. So there will be more EVs/plug-ins than pure ICE cars on the road in the US by 2040. By 2050 they will be under 10%.

I strongly agree that urban areas should be reducing car usage but there's no sign of that happening in the US at this time. I disagree that adding chargers will be difficult. Level 2 chargers are no different than running power to an oven or dryer. Superchargers are mostly going to be along highways, they aren't needed much in cities. 

  • Like 2
Posted
On 6/30/2024 at 7:40 PM, BrewerFan said:

They're using NVDA Chips, there's no reason you should have to trade in your car every couple years like a cell phone because the hardware isn't compatible, and if the hardware isn't compatible, it's a BIIT cheaper to replace some of the hardware than the entire car. 

Tesla doesn’t use NVDA chips they use TSMC in their vehicles.  These chips can be extremely expensive.  Going for anything from $1k-$40k+.  You also can’t just replace the chip you have to replace the whole board.  Replacing that board is going to cost you around $10k.  Which is about what it costs for an ICE.
 

If you are referring to NVDA supplying Tesla with AI chips then that is even more expensive at $40k+ a chip.  Even if you are talking about NVDA’s cheapest chip on the consumer market for graphics cards then that is anywhere between $400-1900+.  

On 6/30/2024 at 7:40 PM, BrewerFan said:

But what year Teslas can you not drive or have to be traded or discarded like an old phone in because their hardware doesn't support the update? 

Not which year Tesla's have hardware that doesn't support the FSD software that they're licensing, which Tesla's can you not drive due to the inability to update the latest software?

None yet but try and update an iPhone 8 to the most recent iOS.  NVDA also ends support for its consumer graphics cards after a certain period of time.  This happens all the time in tech and I fully expect it to happen with the EV’s.  At some point you will be stuck with old software that just won’t work anymore and you will be stuck with no support from the company.  You could try and upgrade the board yourself but then you will have to get the software as that new board isn’t registered to your car.  Plus your car model may not be compatible with the software now because the software engineers didn’t design the software to be compatible with that model.  You will still be able to drive but some features won’t work anymore.

Posted
On 7/1/2024 at 11:06 AM, owbc said:

Which costs time and money???

It's not hard to see what's going to happen...eventually EV sales will gain critical mass (as has already happened in several other countries), they will naturally become cheaper than ICE vehicles to manufacture (whether they actually sell for cheaper is another matter), and chargers will start appearing everywhere. 

About 5-10 years after that, gas stations and ICE maintenance shops will rapidly disappear and/or pivot to EV services. ICE drivers will be the ones with range anxiety when gas stations stop selling gas and only have chargers instead. It will become difficult and expensive to get simple things like oil changes done. That will leave collectors and enthusiasts as the only ICE vehicle owners. I'm guessing that probably won't be until the 2040s or 2050s, but the trajectory is pretty clear. 

I don't know where you get the idea that the battery needs to be replaced. EV batteries are so good that they are starting to be repurposed for solar storage after being used in cars. Even my old Toyota Prius hybrid battery was 15 years old and still working fine when I sold that car. 

Right...they're also still relatively early in on in the new EV movement. The technology, battery storage, everything just keeps getting better. 

Saying it's NEVER going to replace ICE? That feels like the guy at the patent office who wanted to close down because everything that's been invented already has!

My sister has an old Prius with 300K miles on it. Runs great. Beat to absolute hell. They've got where you open the trunk area duck taped on and they have to line it up to open it, but that was from backing into a tree. But...it's still going strong! 

And they drive it just as often as any other Vehicle. they have a big Ram Diesel and a Highlander, both 4-5 years old. 

.

Posted
1 hour ago, nate82 said:

Tesla doesn’t use NVDA chips they use TSMC in their vehicles.  These chips can be extremely expensive.  Going for anything from $1k-$40k+.  You also can’t just replace the chip you have to replace the whole board.  Replacing that board is going to cost you around $10k.  Which is about what it costs for an ICE.
 

If you are referring to NVDA supplying Tesla with AI chips then that is even more expensive at $40k+ a chip.  Even if you are talking about NVDA’s cheapest chip on the consumer market for graphics cards then that is anywhere between $400-1900+.  

Yeah, they've used TSMC chips, and Samsung chips and they're now using the H100 chips. They've used a lot of chips in their trial and error(mostly error, but seems like they may finally be getting it right).

 

They do not go for 40K. The B200 chips go for 30K-40K and they do not need that. 

You keep talking about how it costs money to replace chips...like it doesn't cost money to fill your car up or to replace a head gasket. It cost money to maintain a car. I don't know exactly why you think they'll need these regular replacements when there are plenty of Tesla's that have never needed them, but sure, IF they have to, it'll cost money.

And IF the engine in my Tundra goes, that'll cost money. So I guess I shouldn't have bought a Truck?

Quote

None yet but try and update an iPhone 8 to the most recent iOS. 

No. I'm not going to do that. But the fact that you're trying so hard to create this hypothetical problem that...doesn't exist is strange. 

Sure, if you want the FSD software, it's going to be costly. The Cars are pretty damn affordable, but if you want the self-driving technology that they're just not really coming out with, yeah, I guess that'll cost money.

 

And 95% of the Apple products won't support the AI software...so ALMOST everyone who has an Apple Phone or product will have to buy new stuff to be able to use those applications.

 

When did any of this ever become new or somehow limited to cars? New technology comes out, if you want that in an old car, it'll cost money. I'm not understanding how that's a the death knell of EVs?

 

Quote

 This happens all the time in tech and I fully expect it to happen with the EV’s. 

Ok...well, I don't. 

.

Posted
3 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

Yeah, they've used TSMC chips, and Samsung chips and they're now using the H100 chips. They've used a lot of chips in their trial and error(mostly error, but seems like they may finally be getting it right).

Tesla is not using H100 chips in their cars.  They use them to train the FSD which is what is in the cars.  The H100 chip is $25k per GPU and again they are not in their cars.  Majority of the chips that are in a Tesla are TSMC. 

 

3 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

No. I'm not going to do that. But the fact that you're trying so hard to create this hypothetical problem that...doesn't exist is strange. 

Like I said you know nothing about technology.  You can call it arrogant all you want but it is the truth.  You might want to do some research about planned obsolescence and technology companies.  Apple has done it, Samsung has done it, Sony has done it, Microsoft has done it and add any other technology company to this list.  If you think Tesla or any of the major car manufacturers are not going to do this then you are completely naive. 

  • WHOA SOLVDD 1
Posted
2 hours ago, nate82 said:

Like I said you know nothing about technology.  You can call it arrogant all you want but it is the truth.  You might want to do some research about planned obsolescence and technology companies.  Apple has done it, Samsung has done it, Sony has done it, Microsoft has done it and add any other technology company to this list.  If you think Tesla or any of the major car manufacturers are not going to do this then you are completely naive. 

I know the notion that they're as disposable and regularly replaceable as Iphones is absolutely ridiculous. 

 

I definitely needed you to teach me about planned obsolescence. But to be clear, this is something that is GOING to be happening, not something that's currently happening and hasn't been happening for decades with cars with the internal combustible engine, but will be exclusively used for EVs?

You might want to do some research without such an obvious bias against EVs. 

 

What you have is the potential for planned obsolescence with one type, but it's actually been enacted in the others. 

 

Yup, not arrogant, just the truth! LOL....

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Posted
10 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

But to be clear, this is something that is GOING to be happening, not something that's currently happening and hasn't been happening for decades with cars with the internal combustible engine, but will be exclusively used for EVs?

Where did I say it was exclusively for EVs?

10 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

You might want to do some research without such an obvious bias against EVs. 

Oh I have and hybrids are actually selling far better than ICE and EV's combined.  Which is what I have said in the past should have been the goal to go to.  Hybrids over EV's is still the better plan. 

Brewer Fanatic Contributor
Posted

Hey guys let's tone down the "you know nothing/arrogant/ignorant" talk. Thanks.

  • Like 4
"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006
Posted

I do think you guys are way to focused on the "chips" vehicles are using.  It's actually more than just software to chip/board compatibility.

Each component in a vehicle is designed and built for the vehicle and a limited set of model years of that vehicle.  Maybe Tesla does it differently (though I doubt it), but you can't just update the infotainment center of your car with a new one and expect it to physically fit in that same space (small problem) or communicate all the same messages to the network of control units in your vehicle (bigger problem).  Most modern cars have 40+ different microprocessors communicating on CAN and ethernet busses in your vehicle (engine controller, steering wheel switches, window lift switches, air bags, infotainment, etc..).  

Most of those vehicles have a specific set of communication protocols that are unique to that vehicle.  If you plug in a controller from another vehicle or model year, you typically get a lot of errors and warnings as things don't work together right.  Some vehicles will detect the errors and simply not start the engine as a safety precaution because how tightly intertwined the safety features are reliant on those messages.

Now perhaps Tesla has a leg up on this approach as they basically have a computer in the infotainment system.  So perhaps they will allow you to update to newer OS to get newer features while still plugged into your older "peripherals".  But as soon as they stop providing updates to the OS, all of that ends.  Like Microsoft ending support for WIN XP or WIN 7, you won't get more updates for it.  It will still run as long as you can maintain it, but there is no way to update it without a major retrofit.

That is my main concern about modern vehicles (EV or not).  You can jump in a '69 Mustang and drive it like they drove it 50 years ago.  Modern vehicles are going to lose some connectivity and many features - perhaps even becoming susceptible to cyberhacks when the support runs out. I tend to buy cars that are 2-3 years old and run them over 200k miles.  By that time, most of these cars are going to be functionally obsolete for 10 years. 

  • Like 1

"Rock, sometime, when the team is up against it, and the breaks are beating the boys, tell 'em to go out there with all they got and win just one for the Uecker. I don't know where I'll be then, Rock but I'll know about it; and I'll be happy."

  • 5 weeks later...
Brewer Fanatic Contributor
Posted

 

 

  • Like 2
"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006
Posted

Any details on the chemistry of that battery tech? The other numbers are very good, 9 minutes is only slightly longer than a quick bathroom stop.

  • Like 1
Brewer Fanatic Contributor
Posted
10 hours ago, igor67 said:

Any details on the chemistry of that battery tech? The other numbers are very good, 9 minutes is only slightly longer than a quick bathroom stop.

Samsung’s oxide solid-state battery technology boasts an energy density of 500 Wh/kg, nearly double the 270 Wh/kg density of mainstream EV batteries.

This increased density could potentially double the driving range of current electric vehicles.

https://interestingengineering.com/energy/samsungs-ev-battery-600-mile-charge-in-9-mins

Here's a link from inside that link:

https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/china-low-cost-solid-state-battery-innovation

  • Like 1
"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006
Posted

They sound extremely expensive and won’t be available until 2027 and that is for the super premium EV’s. Estimating some issues with manufacturing and other engineering issues probably puts them closer to 2028-2030.  Then to make them more affordable it wouldn’t be until around 2035-2040 when the consumer finally starts to see reduced prices.  When supply starts to meet or exceed demand.  This is probably a more aggressive timeline at least for the cost to come down.  If these will even be available to non super premium EV’s.

This sounds like it will be only available to the Lamborghini or Ferrari type of EV’s.  So EV’s in the $100k-200k range initially and then eventually to the other EV’s at some point in time.  I wouldn’t expect mass production until like 2035 for non premium EV’s.

Community Moderator
Posted
2 hours ago, nate82 said:

They sound extremely expensive and won’t be available until 2027 and that is for the super premium EV’s. Estimating some issues with manufacturing and other engineering issues probably puts them closer to 2028-2030.  Then to make them more affordable it wouldn’t be until around 2035-2040 when the consumer finally starts to see reduced prices.  When supply starts to meet or exceed demand.  This is probably a more aggressive timeline at least for the cost to come down.  If these will even be available to non super premium EV’s.

This sounds like it will be only available to the Lamborghini or Ferrari type of EV’s.  So EV’s in the $100k-200k range initially and then eventually to the other EV’s at some point in time.  I wouldn’t expect mass production until like 2035 for non premium EV’s.

There will surely be incremental gains prior to then. Most of the new models are nearr or above 300 miles and a few are cracking 400 miles. I have a 2023 Volvo XC-40 which has 223 mile range (although in summer it gets at least 250). The 2024 model is listed at 250-290. That's why I leased it! 

And the Chinese cars are far ahead of that already. 

  • Like 1
Brewer Fanatic Contributor
Posted
2 hours ago, nate82 said:

They sound extremely expensive and won’t be available until 2027 and that is for the super premium EV’s. Estimating some issues with manufacturing and other engineering issues probably puts them closer to 2028-2030.  Then to make them more affordable it wouldn’t be until around 2035-2040 when the consumer finally starts to see reduced prices.  When supply starts to meet or exceed demand.  This is probably a more aggressive timeline at least for the cost to come down.  If these will even be available to non super premium EV’s.

This sounds like it will be only available to the Lamborghini or Ferrari type of EV’s.  So EV’s in the $100k-200k range initially and then eventually to the other EV’s at some point in time.  I wouldn’t expect mass production until like 2035 for non premium EV’s.

Maybe but I look at how far the tech in this sector has come since 10 years ago I would be willing to bet it doesn't take 10 more years to make this available for non premium EVs

  • Like 2
"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006
Posted
43 minutes ago, homer said:

Maybe but I look at how far the tech in this sector has come since 10 years ago I would be willing to bet it doesn't take 10 more years to make this available for non premium EVs

It will probably be available to non super premium EV’s as an upgrade option.  The way Samsung is describing this it sounds like it will be a premium premium upgrade.  
 

https://www.pcmag.com/news/samsung-to-mass-produce-solid-state-batteries-for-super-premium-evs-by

Posted
On 7/3/2024 at 9:52 AM, nate82 said:

Where did I say it was exclusively for EVs?

Oh I have and hybrids are actually selling far better than ICE and EV's combined.  Which is what I have said in the past should have been the goal to go to.  Hybrids over EV's is still the better plan. 

Hybrids aren't that magical though. For people that don't live in a city and do a lot of highway driving there is virtually no value added. Especially these days when hybrids go for MSRP and have horrid incentives. You get some marginal MPG bump and spend $5k+ more for the car. You are losing money even at +10mpg. Plug-In hybrids are just as bad and the only way they aren't financially stupid is a massive federal tax credit. Hybrids are popular, but how many are actually coming out ahead on those purchases? 

Also, what happens long term when lower income people are forced to buy used cars with expensive battery packs? Will they become cheap enough we aren't causing financially strapped people to have $3k+ battery replacements on top of all the other things to fix on a car? One of the perks of ICE cars is the fact they are cheap to buy used and affordable to fix.

Hybrids give you the best of both worlds...but it also gives you the worst of both worlds. 

  • Like 1
Posted
2 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

Also, what happens long term when lower income people are forced to buy used cars with expensive battery packs?

That is the big question that no one has an answer to.  Alternative fuel options are probably a better option but those options are even further out.  

Posted
3 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

Also, what happens long term when lower income people are forced to buy used cars with expensive battery packs? Will they become cheap enough we aren't causing financially strapped people to have $3k+ battery replacements on top of all the other things to fix on a car?

I could easily see legislation that would require batteries to have a certain amount of life left in order for dealers to sell them, just like dealers cannot sell cars that have tires with less than a certain tread depth left or less than a certain brake life left.

That cost will be ultimately be eaten by the person who trades it in, not the person who buys it, as dealers will test the battery before giving a trade-in value to know if they will need to replace it.  And, if it gets to that point, the continuing demand for ICE vehicles coupled with the depleting supply will raise the price of ICEs and eventually make EVs, even with a battery replacement, the cheaper option. 

And, yes, batteries are going to get cheaper. 

  • Like 1
Posted

Well at the same mechanic who charges me half of what Oil changes were costing in the Twin Cities I just(AKA the mechanic works cheap) spent $800 for a fuel pump replacement on my F-150, so I don't really think any vehicles count as cheap to repair or maintain. Going back 20 years I'm pretty sure I've hit at least $3000 in repairs (not just tires and oil changes) on every vehicle I've had. The bigger hurdle is adding on the extra cost up front to get a home charger for the first time. It's not terribly expensive, but I spent enough time juggling used cars that trying to add that in the budget while used car shopping would be a problem for a lot of people. If you are frequently using pay chargers then you loose way too much of the savings advantage. But yes the battery packs are going to keep dropping in cost because of where they are in the technology replacement cycle. The newer batteries are also being tested against that 4000 charging cycle stress test. Which even if you charge it everyday gets you to an 11 year life span with most of the battery still working. For most people especially as the packs get bigger you can extend that pretty easily to 15 years with only modest degradation.

Posted

I really like the solid state battery tech, it is exciting due to safety/weight/etc...but also very cost-prohibitive in the midterm until more advances are made for cheaper mass production.

Realistic scaling on a global level for EVs would need to utilize the non-lithium solid state battery approach, the question EV proponents should have is whether or not the added environmental footprint that a globalized EV fleet of light passenger vehicles and necessary charging station infrastructure/electrical generation capacity is worth it, considering the existing (and still expanding) oil and gas infrastructure for drilling and extraction simply won't be going away - no matter how many people can get 500 miles on a single battery charge after shelling out $75-$100K on an EV + home charging station.  Hell, the existing O&G infrastructure is critical to the EV supply chain itself.

 

Posted
2 hours ago, igor67 said:

Well at the same mechanic who charges me half of what Oil changes were costing in the Twin Cities I just(AKA the mechanic works cheap) spent $800 for a fuel pump replacement on my F-150, so I don't really think any vehicles count as cheap to repair or maintain. Going back 20 years I'm pretty sure I've hit at least $3000 in repairs (not just tires and oil changes) on every vehicle I've had. The bigger hurdle is adding on the extra cost up front to get a home charger for the first time. It's not terribly expensive, but I spent enough time juggling used cars that trying to add that in the budget while used car shopping would be a problem for a lot of people. If you are frequently using pay chargers then you loose way too much of the savings advantage. But yes the battery packs are going to keep dropping in cost because of where they are in the technology replacement cycle. The newer batteries are also being tested against that 4000 charging cycle stress test. Which even if you charge it everyday gets you to an 11 year life span with most of the battery still working. For most people especially as the packs get bigger you can extend that pretty easily to 15 years with only modest degradation.

It isn't a big deal if the car is fully electric. It is a problem when it is a hybrid. Because then it is a fuel pump AND battery/EV components. I think the belief is an EV is a lower cost of maintenance short and long term. Certainly, that is probably the case for the ownership tree until the battery goes. 

That is why I think it is all or nothing. Mixing the two into one vehicle isn't advantageous at all. 

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