Hiura Slighted and Demoted; Adames hitting #2 with a .289 OBP

[nate82]

6 minutes ago, monty57 said:

I don't like strikeouts either, but Hiura's also walking at over a 10% clip, and he's barreling up balls when he makes contact. He is doing some things well after making his adjustments this past offseason, so I don't get the laser-like fixation on K rate, as if that is the only thing that matters. I'd like to see it brought down, and I think there is a good chance it will come down if he gets regular PAs vs RHP rather than getting most PAs against LHP, and only facing RHP when the high-K relievers into the game.

 

Hiura hasn't really made any adjustments to his swing.  He is about the same as he was in 2021 with balls in the upper part of the strike zone.  Hiura basically can not hit in the upper part of the strike zone as the majority of his hits come from either middle-middle, middle-away, low-inside or low-middle.  Hiura has exactly one hit in the upper part of the strike zone and that is up-away which was a single.  

Hiura basically has zero power and about a zero percent chance of getting a hit in the upper part of the strike zone as he whiff's at those pitches more than he does in any other spot of the strike zone.  Even going all the way back to 2019 Hiura has had trouble with pitches in the upper part of the strike zone.  But in 2019 he was able to get a few more hits and he wasn't whiffing at the same rate as he has been since 2021.  

His current season looks exactly like 2019 and 2021 in the mid to lower part of the strike zone.  I don't believe there has been any improvement in Hiura at all he is still the same player he has been.  Teams are still going to exploit the top of the strike zone against Hiura and even if Hiura watches the pitches go by they are still strikes.  The issue with Hiura is that he can only hit in the middle to lower part of the strike zone.  Hiura has a very low chance of getting a hit in the top portion of the strike zone.  When teams start making the adjustment back to the upper part of the strike zone Hiura is absolutely useless as he can't hit in the upper part of the strike zone at all.  

[NBBrewFan]

13 minutes ago, nate82 said:

When teams start making the adjustment

Do you really think that teams don't know his current/past tendencies and just choose to throw him mid/low? 

[Jopal78]

23 minutes ago, monty57 said:

I figured around $1.25M in my spreadsheet, but I just rounded in the post because I didn't think it was all that meaningful. He's not going to be overly-expensive if they plan on using him, but he will be overly expensive if they plan on sitting him on the bench. In fact, I don't really see him as a good bench player because of his poor defense. They need to decide if he's a good enough hitter to DH, because if he's not, then he's not going to be an asset to the team.

I don't know why you say "nonsense" other than to degrade other posters. His starts prior to being sent down were almost exclusively against LHP, when he wasn't hitting LHP, but he was hitting well against RHP. Even though McCutcheon hadn't hit well against RHP since 2019, he got cemented into the DH role, including getting every start against RHP. 

I don't like strikeouts either, but Hiura's also walking at over a 10% clip, and he's barreling up balls when he makes contact. He is doing some things well after making his adjustments this past offseason, so I don't get the laser-like fixation on K rate, as if that is the only thing that matters. I'd like to see it brought down, and I think there is a good chance it will come down if he gets regular PAs vs RHP rather than getting most PAs against LHP, and only facing RHP when the high-K relievers into the game.

This tidbit is from MLB's own site: "K/9 rate tells us a lot, but it's important to note the difference between starters and relievers within the statistic. Because relievers generally pitch for such a short period of time and aren't as concerned about conserving pitches, they can throw with higher intensity for each batter. As a result, relief-pitcher K/9 numbers are generally higher than those of starting pitchers."

That seems to be pretty obvious, but it doesn't seem to be recognized in this thread. The amazing thing to me is that while put in a position to lose, Hiura has still been able to put up such good numbers against these hard-throwing RH relievers. 

Yes, the HR rate is unsustainably high, but so is the K rate. Give him some time, and he may just prove to be a decent MLB hitter... at least against right-handed pitching. If he can prove that, he will not only help this year's team, which seems to be in need of some help right now, but he will show that he can help them in the future. The upside is really good, while the downside is that past-his-prime McCutcheon will lose some PAs before leaving this offseason. Really, what's the harm?

I'm sure there are exceptions, but based on a quick glance at last year's list, hitters with as much experience as Hiura in their first year of arbitration did much better than 1 million or even 1.25 million. If Hiura does get tendered and goes through arbitration I would guess he will be closer to 2 million than 1 million. 

As for calling his "mis-use" nonsense, its certainly not to degrade other posters. Nobody honestly believes the Brewers are unaware of Hiura's splits, hit charts, etc. In fact, they have access to more player information than anyone on these boards. Therefore, there must be an intentional reason for playing him when they do and against whom.

Like it or not, MLB teams simply do not roster players that strike out much more than 35% of the time. Hiura striking out at a 43% clip is the main reason he's the 24th, 25th or 26th man on the Brewers roster. 

Can he get that number down to 35% and still hit 30 homeruns, who knows (In my opinion its looking unlikely given the 1000 PAs he's had in the majors)?

I do know with near certainty if he continues to strike out 40% of the time or more, his remaining career in the major leagues will be brief. 

[UpandIn]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

I have no problem playing Hiura against RHP, he's been hot. I don't buy any nonsense that he's been used incorrectly, they have given him plenty of chances and he hasn't been able to fix his strike out issues. That being said, he may as well be in there against every RHP while 30% of his hits are going over the fence.

I can't square this. If it's nonsense that he's not being used correctly, why is he in there starting vs lefties and then lifted when a RHed pitcher comes in?

That kinda seems like they're completely ignoring his current trends and...using him incorrectly. 

[nate82]

Just now, NBBrewFan said:

Do you really think that teams don't know his current/past tendencies and just choose to throw him mid/low? 

No, I do not.  Teams do make adjustments once a player proves they can hit where they are pitching them.  If you look at Hiura's zone coverage in 2021 he was whiffing a lot in the middle of the zone and not so much in the bottom part of the zone.  Now in 2022 Hiura is whiffing a lot less in the middle of the zone but also whiffing more in the bottom-away and bottom-inside part of the strike zone.  Not that big of difference though.  So teams believe they can get Hiura out in bottom-away and bottom-inside.  

Bottom-away for Hiura is still an out the majority if times so teams are going to try and exploit that.  If the pitches misses inside the zone there then it falls into Hiura's hitting area where he is hitting the ball hard and out of the park.  Take Sunday's home run as an example.  The pitch was supposed to be bottom-away but the pitcher missed and the pitch was bottom-middle.  Which Hiura doesn't miss many of those pitches as that is his 2nd lowest Whiff% 24%.  If the pitch is located correctly it lands in an area where Hiura whiffs 38% in the zone and 57% out of the strike zone.  

I think teams are just going to change how they approach Hiura and start throwing more in the upper part of the strike zone instead of throwing bottom-away.  The good teams are going to start pitching Hiura more in the upper part of the strike zone as they abandon the bottom portion of the strike zone to reduce mistake pitches that Hiura can hit.  

[monty57]

27 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I'm sure there are exceptions, but based on a quick glance at last year's list, hitters with as much experience as Hiura in their first year of arbitration did much better than 1 million or even 1.25 million. If Hiura does get tendered and goes through arbitration I would guess he will be closer to 2 million than 1 million. 

As for calling his "mis-use" nonsense, its certainly not to degrade other posters. Nobody honestly believes the Brewers are unaware of Hiura's splits, hit charts, etc. In fact, they have access to more player information than anyone on these boards. Therefore, there must be an intentional reason for playing him when they do and against whom.

Like it or not, MLB teams simply do not roster players that strike out much more than 35% of the time. Hiura striking out at a 43% clip is the main reason he's the 24th, 25th or 26th man on the Brewers roster. 

Can he get that number down to 35% and still hit 30 homeruns, who knows (In my opinion its looking unlikely given the 1000 PAs he's had in the majors)?

I do know with near certainty if he continues to strike out 40% of the time or more, his remaining career in the major leagues will be brief. 

1) The Brewers have a few first year arby guys on their roster. Burnes is at $6.5M, Adames $4.6M, Urias $2.55M, House & Lauer $2.425M each, Tellez $1.94M, and Gustave $700k. Gott ($725k), Bush ($825k), Caratini ($2M), and Woodruff ($6.8M) are in year 2 arby. Tellez is a comp, but he's an everyday player, while the guys under $1M are relievers. Since Hiura has had sporadic play and been bounced between MLB & the minors, I just used $1.25M as an estimate. You may be right that he gets more, but "the panel" may see him as a bench guy and think he's not worth that much.

2) My guess on why the Brewers have done what they've done is in large part that they signed McCutchen to an $8.5M deal, so they wanted him to play everyday. Since neither Hiura nor McCutchen should see much time in the field, Hiura was the odd man out. He's sucked the past few years, so they probably didn't think it would be an issue, so his success (whether sustainable or not) kind of put them in a weird situation. The best way for them to give him PAs was to sit their "big" offseason FA signee.

3) I agree that he won't be an MLB player for long if his success proves to be a fluke. He was obviously a sub-par player in 2020 & 2021 and that puts him on a short leash, but he's hit all his life before that and has hit to start this year after changing his mechanics, so I just hope that the Brewers give him the chance in what's left of this year (not last year or 2020) to see if he can prove himself. If so, he has a future with the team. If not, then send him packing. I don't care if McCutchen sits the bench, as he's not that good anymore and he has no future with the team.

[Guest]

For what it's worth, Hiura's 162 game average stats are 30 hrs and 216 ks. I think he's proven it's possible he could hit 30 in a year.

[Jopal78]

39 minutes ago, monty57 said:

1) The Brewers have a few first year arby guys on their roster. Burnes is at $6.5M, Adames $4.6M, Urias $2.55M, House & Lauer $2.425M each, Tellez $1.94M, and Gustave $700k. Gott ($725k), Bush ($825k), Caratini ($2M), and Woodruff ($6.8M) are in year 2 arby. Tellez is a comp, but he's an everyday player, while the guys under $1M are relievers. Since Hiura has had sporadic play and been bounced between MLB & the minors, I just used $1.25M as an estimate. You may be right that he gets more, but "the panel" may see him as a bench guy and think he's not worth that much.

2) My guess on why the Brewers have done what they've done is in large part that they signed McCutchen to an $8.5M deal, so they wanted him to play everyday. Since neither Hiura nor McCutchen should see much time in the field, Hiura was the odd man out. He's sucked the past few years, so they probably didn't think it would be an issue, so his success (whether sustainable or not) kind of put them in a weird situation. The best way for them to give him PAs was to sit their "big" offseason FA signee.

3) I agree that he won't be an MLB player for long if his success proves to be a fluke. He was obviously a sub-par player in 2020 & 2021 and that puts him on a short leash, but he's hit all his life before that and has hit to start this year after changing his mechanics, so I just hope that the Brewers give him the chance in what's left of this year (not last year or 2020) to see if he can prove himself. If so, he has a future with the team. If not, then send him packing. I don't care if McCutchen sits the bench, as he's not that good anymore and he has no future with the team.

1. Would be interesting to see what a arbitration hearing is like. If I was representing Hiura, I would argue that he's already got 1000 PAs in the major leagues since being drafted in June of '17, and the most homeruns of anyone drafted since. 

2. I  don't buy that argument all, its nonsense. Mayyyybe in April it had some merit; however, this is a team that is trying to win as many games as possible. They're going to play the collection of players they believe gives them the best chance to win regardless of the weight of the contracts. To wit, they've already eaten a ton of money this year in guaranteed salary to Lorenzo Cain, Dinelson Lamet, Jake McGee, etc.  Most importantly, if you take a look at McCutchen's numbers, he got off to a terrible start, but since June 1st he's been terrific with a .280 average, .365 OBP, .478 SLG%.  In other words, since June 1st there has been NO reason to play Hiura in front of McCutchen. Also its probably not a coincidence that when McCutchen started to hit in early June also coincided with the time period around which Hiura was again demoted to add a pitcher. 

3. I don't know if having "hit all his life" means very much. All major league hitters, raked in high school and/or college and the minor leagues otherwise they wouldn't have made it in the first place. Really, its Hiura's lack of defensive ability and the strikeouts that are holding him back neither of which he's showed any ability to improve upon. To be sure, after nearly 1000 PAs in the major leagues, Hiura has had his "chance" to prove himself. In a way, Keston is fortunate he's with an uber patient organization like the Brewers as I'm sure there are teams who already would have cut bait. 

 

[NBBrewFan]

2 hours ago, nate82 said:

If you look at Hiura's zone coverage in 2021 he was whiffing a lot in the middle of the zone and not so much in the bottom part of the zone.  Now in 2022 Hiura is whiffing a lot less in the middle of the zone but also whiffing more in the bottom-away and bottom-inside part of the strike zone.  Not that big of difference though.  So teams believe they can get Hiura out in bottom-away and bottom-inside. 

So would you agree with the sentiment that Hiura is adjusting to how he is being pitched and while some of those adjustments may improve previous attempts to pitch to his weaknesses,  those adjustments may lead to new areas where he is worse?

I think he's making adjustments to pitchers adjustments.  While some of those adjustments are working (better barrel/HardHit/EV/wRC+) they are also leading to some less favorable outcomes (more K's). I haven't looked at his increased BB% (went form 7.x% to 10.x%), but I wonder if some of that is laying off pitches that are high and sometimes that high pitch comes in as a strike (K) and other times a ball (BB). His Swing% is down and his Called Strike% is up so he maybe he is being more selective without looking at more data I don't know if that's situational (with more strikes he's more selective) or just an overall change, or where those pitches might be that he's not swinging at.

[nate82]

Just now, NBBrewFan said:

So would you agree with the sentiment that Hiura is adjusting to how he is being pitched and while some of those adjustments may improve previous attempts to pitch to his weaknesses,  those adjustments may lead to new areas where he is worse?

I think he's making adjustments to pitchers adjustments.  While some of those adjustments are working (better barrel/HardHit/EV/wRC+) they are also leading to some less favorable outcomes (more K's). I haven't looked at his increased BB% (went form 7.x% to 10.x%), but I wonder if some of that is laying off pitches that are high and sometimes that high pitch comes in as a strike (K) and other times a ball (BB). His Swing% is down and his Called Strike% is up so he maybe he is being more selective without looking at more data I don't know if that's situational (with more strikes he's more selective) or just an overall change, or where those pitches might be that he's not swinging at.

No because the top of the zone he is still swinging like he has since 2019.  There is no improvement for Hiura at the top of the zone he is either worse or just about the same there.  He has regressed back to his 2019 norms in the lower part of the strike zone for the most part.

The others you have pointed out wouldn't have an outcome on more K's.  Actually a better barrel rate should lower his K's if anything.  It should also improve his BA and other stats.  Hiura looks to be the same hitter he was in 2019-2021 there hasn't been much of a change for Hiura.  The only thing that has changed a bit are the results and that he is whiffing less in the middle part of the strike zone and the lower part of the strike zone.  At the top of the strike zone he is still the same player he has always been and that is a K machine.  He doesn't barrel up the ball at all in the top of the strike zone and when he does make contact it is mostly weak contact up there.  Power hitters should be feasting on upper-middle pitches but Hiura is all famine.  

[NBBrewFan]

54 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

if you take a look at McCutchen's numbers, he got off to a terrible start, but since June 1st he's been terrific with a .280 average, .365 OBP, .478 SLG%.  In other words, since June 1st there has been NO reason to play Hiura in front of McCutchen.

Hiura vs McCutcheon (wRC+):

Yep, CLEARLY no reason. FYI those great numbers from June 1st on that get quoted so often are almost all 4 weeks in June. 

[Jopal78]

47 minutes ago, NBBrewFan said:

Hiura vs McCutcheon (wRC+):

Yep, CLEARLY no reason. FYI those great numbers from June 1st on that get quoted so often are almost all 4 weeks in June. 

I don't know what to tell you, there's stats out there to say anything I guess. 

Look I get it, there's people that love Hiura, love the long ball and feel it's a sin that he's not in there every night.

It might be old school to the sabremetricians, but there's not a single team in MLB that would roster a player who strikes out 40% of the time for very long especially when the player is a liability in the field too. That's all it is with Hiura: lack of defense and too many strikeouts = bench/AAA. No mis-use of Hiura, no edict from the owner to start the wealthiest players,  I'm sure he's never said anything rude about the GM's wife, or done anything else where they're out to sabotage his career. Its simply lack of defense and too many strike outs.

 

 

[Robocaller]

2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

I don't know what to tell you, there's stats out there to say anything I guess. 

Look I get it, there's people that love Hiura, love the long ball and feel it's a sin that he's not in there every night.

It might be old school to the sabremetricians, but there's not a single team in MLB that would roster a player who strikes out 40% of the time for very long especially when the player is a liability in the field too. That's all it is with Hiura: lack of defense and too many strikeouts = bench/AAA. No mis-use of Hiura, no edict from the owner to start the wealthiest players,  I'm sure he's never said anything rude about the GM's wife, or done anything else where they're out to sabotage his career. Its simply lack of defense and too many strike outs.

 

 

Please,  wRC+ isn't that hard to understand. If you understood it, it would clearly be sufficient to show that Hiura has outperformed McCutchen.  There's no argument against it. The only argument is if you think Hiura will stop performing as he has (with more ABs) or if you think McCutchen will get hot, but those can only be based on hunches, not actual performance.

 

[Brewcrew82]

FWIW, Keston's K rate in the minors this year (small sample size) has been 25%, which is a little lower than it was before he got called up in 2019. Meanwhile, his K% across July and August in the majors is 32.4%. Obviously, you'd like it to be even lower, but that is in a range where, even if his BABIP regresses, he should still be very productive with his elite quality of contact.

Also, watching some early 2022 Hiura video today, I've noticed one particular adjustment he's made in-season at the plate. We all heard about the reduced leg kick in spring training, however, in the last couple months or so he's also switched his batting stance from open to closed. That change coincides nicely with his summer hot run....

In all, I think the lost Hiura of 2021 is in the past. The real question here is whether going forward we will get more of the 2019 all-star version or the 2020 mediocre version. Overall, judging by his contact stats, which rival his 2019 season, I'm inclined to think we're moving towards the all-star version. Probably still short of that with his K rate, but someone who needs to be in the lineup quite regularly, particularly against RHP. 

[rickh150]

On 8/9/2022 at 5:21 PM, Robocaller said:

Please,  wRC+ isn't that hard to understand. If you understood it, it would clearly be sufficient to show that Hiura has outperformed McCutchen.  There's no argument against it. The only argument is if you think Hiura will stop performing as he has (with more ABs) or if you think McCutchen will get hot, but those can only be based on hunches, not actual performance.

 

Absurd to not ride the hot bat now. Sitting Hiura and pinch hitting him when a RIGHTY is pitching is like pinch running for Ruiz at AAA. Let the guy do what he does best, especially of late. And give him the DH five nights a week. Jerking him around. 
Crazy and stubborn of CC. 

[Jenkins5]

Contact is clearly a major issue. He can't continue to K at his current rate. He can't be out here wiffing 40+% With that said, man when he is making contact, it is at an elite level. I mean 90+ percentile in all of baseball. Hard to give up on that powerful of a swing entering prime 26.  He needs to get into the lab hard and make adjustments. I don't have good enough minor league data to back it us but between 2018 to 2019, the jump to AAA there was a switch from the more professional hitter with solid power who didn't k more than 20% to a much more power first type hitter with reduced contact. I'm just confused he could go from such a contact professional hitter and turn into not making contact 40% of swings. 

The positives in 22'

Without seeing the the data on wiffs or k's you'd think this guy was an elite bat.

92 percentile for barrel% at 18.5%

89 percentile for Average EV 93.1

96 percentile for hard hit% at 

88 percentile for xISO 

He is hitting sweet spot at a 44.6% and a crazy 1.5% weak contact%. 

He still has a wRC+ of 135. A 1 WAR in 150 PA's. .840 OPS. 10.5 bb% which is highest of career. .244 ISO.

 

The Bad. 

43% K% is awful. His zone contact and chase contacts are rough. His inability to tough lefties is serious issue currently. Breaking balls in particular. He is hitting .067 on breaking balls. He is whiffing at 54.8% rate. Fastballs a little better at .212 average and "only 41.2% whiff. Those compare to the .333 average and 38.5 whiff% on fastballs verse lefties and .259 average and 43.9% whiff% on breaking balls.

 

With no real defensive home, that also hurts but even with the K's, the bat is producing. Question is how much can you deal with the Ks for what the bat does when it hits ball. I would hit him only verse righties. Zero reason he should see a lefty the rest of the season.  Brewers need what his bat can down the stretch. It is most dangerous bat they have. He needs to make adjusts though with the contact. In July/August he has 34 PA's and only 11 Ks compared to the 43 PA's he had in June where he K'd 24 times. Still high but an improvement at least

 

 

 

[rickh150]

More Hiura at DH and bring up Frelick to play in CF. The offense needs to get a kick start.

[rickh150]

And now hitting #3

[Never Outhustled]

On 8/9/2022 at 10:29 AM, nate82 said:

Hiura hasn't really made any adjustments to his swing.  

Hiura basically has zero power and about a zero percent chance of getting a hit in the upper part of the strike zone 

I'm guessing you don't actually watch any games. 

He's made numerous adjustments, and he's hitting better up in the zone. 

He's easily the best hitter on the team. 

[Ewitkows1]

Honestly I don't care if he Ks 50% of the time. If he's OPS 127 on a hitting challenged him he needs to be in there 4 to 5 days a week at DH

[LouisEly]

Just for poops and giggles, I wondered what the antithesis of Hiura would look like from a sabremetric standpoint.  So I wondered, who would be the antithesis of Hiura?

Tony Gwynn, Sr.

Here are Gwynn's career numbers (in parentheses are Hiura's 2022 numbers, not including today's 2-HR game)

Career K%: 4.2% (2022 Hiura - 43.0%)
Career BB%: 7.7% (2022 Hiura - 10.3%)
Career ISO: .120 (2022 Hiura - .225)
Career BA: .338 (2022 Hiura - .239)
Career BABIP: .341 (2022 Hiura - .393)

Career wRC+: 132 (2022 Hiura - 128)

The takeaway?  There's more than one way to skin a cat in today's MLB.  And if you don't have much power, you need to have an elite hit tool in order to create runs.

[YelichPosse]

One thing I’ve noticed, the K’s don’t bother me so much in todays game how it’s played.

hardly anyone moves runners over, etc. and most guys K a lot. 
 

I rather have a guy like Keston who K’s a lot and when he makes contact hits piss rockets, than guys who K less and beats the ball into the ground , pop out swinging out of their shoes, or try and pull an outside pitch and meekly ground out.

just seems silly in this offense the one guy who has shown the most gets the red headed stepchild treatment lol

[nate82]

2 hours ago, Never Outhustled said:

I'm guessing you don't actually watch any games. 

He's made numerous adjustments, and he's hitting better up in the zone. 

I do and Keston has exactly 1 hit in the upper half of the strike zone.  That is right 1 hit so I guess that is an improvement over 0.  Oh and he is still whiffing at about a 60% at the upper part of the zone?  Did you even look at his upper zone swings at all?  

Here they are so you don't have to look for yourself apparently you just got outhustled here.....

[Never Outhustled]

11 minutes ago, nate82 said:

I do and Keston has exactly 1 hit in the upper half of the strike zone.  That is right 1 hit so I guess that is an improvement over 0.  Oh and he is still whiffing at about a 60% at the upper part of the zone?  Did you even look at his upper zone swings at all?  

Here they are so you don't have to look for yourself apparently you just got outhustled here.....

He added 2 more today. As his swing adjustments continue, this will be old news soon. 

[rickh150]

13 minutes ago, nate82 said:

I do and Keston has exactly 1 hit in the upper half of the strike zone.  That is right 1 hit so I guess that is an improvement over 0.  Oh and he is still whiffing at about a 60% at the upper part of the zone?  Did you even look at his upper zone swings at all?  

Here they are so you don't have to look for yourself apparently you just got outhustled here.....

CC lost games sitting him in August. Plain and simple. Close, low scoring games were lost with him on the bench.

And then when he played, it was often a pinch hit or starts against a lefty.  Rare at bats for like 3 weeks.

There is a hole in his swing, sure. But he walks and hits mistakes hard. He’s hitting better than anyone on the team! Just play him! What more can he do? Let him be bad. Then sit him. Like everyone else ever.