Game Thread (8/15/2022): Dodgers (Urías) at Brewers (Peralta) - 7:10 PM CDT

[Eye Black]

[Pugger]

This series is gonna be tough.  I just hope we don't get swept...

[Brewcrew82]

Listen, if the Nationals and Pirates can both take series from the Dodgers, I'm optimistic that we can find a way to at least achieve a split. Helps that all of our big guns in the rotation are going, with decent-sized pitching advantages tomorrow and Thursday. Not to mention Dodger-killer Eric Lauer. And hopefully a return to a more friendly environment sparks the offense. 

[Brewin]

Agree w/Brewcrew82, the only game in the series where the pitching matchup clearly favors LAD is tonight. I'm hoping for at least a split (hopefully 3/4)

[KeithStone53151]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Listen, if the Nationals and Pirates can both take series from the Dodgers, I'm optimistic that we can find a way to at least achieve a split. Helps that all of our big guns in the rotation are going, with decent-sized pitching advantages tomorrow and Thursday. Not to mention Dodger-killer Eric Lauer. And hopefully a return to a more friendly environment sparks the offense. 

Considering it's a 4 game, the only guy NOT going is ashby...who pitched yesterday.

[BruisedCrew]

Of course, the lineup matchup greatly favors the Dodgers over the Brewers in every game, and in most cases that advantage will be much greater than any pitching advantage the Brewers might have. The Dodgers rotation is excellent, but not what it could be with Kershaw and Buehler injured, not to mention Bauer’s long term suspension. 
 

That having been said, baseball being what it is, the Brewers have a chance in every game, and a split in the series is far from out of the question and would be a decent outcome. But, it’s going to take more offense than they got against the Cardinals and/or some outstanding pitching. 
 

The Dodgers will be throwing a couple of tough lefties, starting with Urias tonight. My hope is that after winning 34 of their last 40 games and out scoring their opponents 242-120 (basically winning by an average of 6-3), but having their 12 game winning streak stopped yesterday, the Dodgers are due for a little dry spell. 

[KeithStone53151]

23 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

Of course, the lineup matchup greatly favors the Dodgers over the Brewers in every game, and in most cases that advantage will be much greater than any pitching advantage the Brewers might have. The Dodgers rotation is excellent, but not what it could be with Kershaw and Buehler injured, not to mention Bauer’s long term suspension. 

I read this and thought you were definitely wrong. Then I looked it up. How does every Dodgers starter have an ERA in the 2s? What in the actual heck?

[Brewcrew82]

36 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

I read this and thought you were definitely wrong. Then I looked it up. How does every Dodgers starter have an ERA in the 2s? What in the actual heck?

I think it's largely a product of the environment the Dodgers have created in the last decade, but it's also pretty clear that some of these guys are pitching over their heads. What I think may ultimately doom them in a postseason series, especially now that Buehler is confirmed out for the year. 

[yourout]

Ugh....lefty starter.

[Robocaller]

Corbin Burnes should DH.

[BruisedCrew]

Maybe it’s easier to pitch when you know you don’t have to pitch perfectly and hope for a run to back you up. 

[sveumrules]

5 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

Maybe it’s easier to pitch when you know you don’t have to pitch perfectly and hope for a run to back you up. 

The Brewers are 8th in RS/G this year vs 15th in RA/G, maybe the offense is pressing from having to carry an underperforming pitching staff?

[BruisedCrew]

58 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I think it's largely a product of the environment the Dodgers have created in the last decade, but it's also pretty clear that some of these guys are pitching over their heads. What I think may ultimately doom them in a postseason series, especially now that Buehler is confirmed out for the year. 

There’s going to be some stiff competition in the NL playoffs. 
The records of the teams since June 1 presents a pretty telling story. On that date the Brewers at 32-19 were only 2 games behind the Dodgers and Mets for the best record in the NL. The Brewers were 8.5 games ahead of the Braves.
 

Since then the records are:

Dodgers 46-18

Braves 47-19

Phillies 42-22

Mets 41-23

Cardinals 35-30

Padres 35-33

Brewers 29-33

I think the fact that the Brewers were in first place in the division for much of this time while they and the Cardinals were treading water distracted some people from realizing how the cream was rising to the top and the Brewers weren’t cream.

If Scherzer and deGrom can stay healthy the Mets are going to present a serious challenge to the Dodgers. The Dodgers might have an advantage by playing the survivor of the 3/6 wild card series in the division round.

 

 

[BruisedCrew]

22 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

The Brewers are 8th in RS/G this year vs 15th in RA/G, maybe the offense is pressing from having to carry an underperforming pitching staff?

You can believe that, but I think a deeper dive of how the Brewers runs have been distributed would refute it. It’s not as if they score more when their best pitchers are on the mound shutting down an opponent for 6 innings, allowing the offense to relax knowing they don’t need too many runs. 

[sveumrules]

Here’s a pretty telling surface level stat, from 2018-21, the Brewers bullpen won 146 games (3rd most) and lost 86 games (7th fewest).

The only team with a better bullpen W% over that same stretch was NYY at 141-81.

+60 bullpen wins over 3.37 seasons is something like +18 per full season.

This year’s bullpen hasn’t given us that same boost at 24 wins (11th) vs 20 losses (15th).

[NBBrewFan]

The Brewers play a unbalanced schedule with a majority of their games against the NL Central.  Here are the cumulative WAR for Hitters and Pitchers on the NL Central Teams the Brewers play:

Hitters = 43.6 WAR

Pitchers = 21.6 WAR

It shouldn't be surprising that the Brewers offense is ranking better in runs scored than the Brewers pitching staff as the level of competition is twice as difficult for the Pitchers compared to the Hitters.  One could look at all the teams they play, but I don't have the time plus both WAR numbers should be adjusted by removing the Brewers data within them.

[yourout]

Well that didnt take long.

[mtrebs]

8 hours ago, Pugger said:

This series is gonna be tough.  I just hope we don't get swept...

It’ll be tough. I put the over/under for the Brewers offense for the series at about 3. 

[sveumrules]

25 minutes ago, NBBrewFan said:

The Brewers play a unbalanced schedule with a majority of their games against the NL Central.  Here are the cumulative WAR for Hitters and Pitchers on the NL Central Teams the Brewers play:

Hitters = 43.6 WAR

Pitchers = 21.6 WAR

It shouldn't be surprising that the Brewers offense is ranking better in runs scored than the Brewers pitching staff as the level of competition is twice as difficult for the Pitchers compared to the Hitters.  One could look at all the teams they play, but I don't have the time plus both WAR numbers should be adjusted by removing the Brewers data within them.

OPS+ for the other NLC teams are 113, 98, 83 and 83.

ERA+ for the other NLC teams are 99, 97, 91, 91.

Outside of the Cardinals offense, the pitching staff has had an easier go of things with the Reds/Pirates offenses each clocking in worse than their pitching.

[mtsportsfan]

Typical outcome !

[yourout]

That will be the last Brewer base runner for about 5 innings.

[folly412]

He said the Dodgers don't give up a lot of home runs so he said they've got to be patient, and he said they need to make the pitchers work he said and get some traffic he said on the bases he said and try he said to get some big multi-run innings he said that he said he thinks he said that would be the key he said to beating the Dodgers.

[Brewcrew82]

Nice shot Tyrone. Bring up Frelick and you can have a nice L-R CF combo going on. 

[mtsportsfan]

Now would be a good time for his roll over to second. Move the guy to third at least. That's the best we can hope from him  lately !

[LouisEly]

How about a walk after starting 0-2?