Hader VERY BAD for Padres

[nate82]

Just now, Hopper said:

I want every move the Brewers make to be SUPER, but when they make moves I don't agree with, they deserve to be contested, and there are some posters on this site that sugar coat every move, and act like it is against the law to question anything.

Just because you are contesting a move made by the team doesn't mean your opinion can't also be contested.  There are a few posters on here who think their opinion is final and the truth.  When they get questioned about their opinion they then go on the defensive and proclaim they are being attacked and can't voice their opinion.  

If you post your opinion expect someone to post their opinion on your opinion.  This is how communication has worked for centuries it doesn't change because you posted it digitally.  If you don't want someone to challenge your opinion then the best option is to not post your opinion or ignore the responses.  

[SF70]

16 minutes ago, Hopper said:

Quick question for all those who continuously support and back every move the Brewers make: (which I believe that sometimes, people do so just to take an opposite view of certain posters, or just to create conflict)

Given what we know now, and what transpired after the trade, how many of you still back the Hader trade and think it was a good thing?

No fluffy answers, no saying things like "we have to wait 5 years to judge the trade" or "we couldn't afford him anyway, so we had to take the best offer" nothing like that.  

No indirect or deflecting answers.

Knowing what we know right now, and how the season ended for the 22 Brewers team, how many would still make that same exact trade today?

Absolutely would have made that trade because of the disaster that was Josh Hader for more than a month prior to the deadline. I was surprised Stearns was able to trade him and even more surprised he was able to get-back what he did.

1.5 years of a commandless (at the time), expensive Hader, for another top flight closer and 2 near big-league readies was a great baseball trade. I also believe the team, because of pitching injuries and regression were a shell of what they could have been.

They added a future rotation arm as early as post S2 of next season. That is huge. The organizations prospect weakness is in starting pitching above A+, so this helped add a starter before the next possible wave of ‘25/‘26.

After Gasser, we now need 1 more big-arm added before the departure of our big 3 (Woody-Burnes-Lauer) to continue the pitching-train. I’m assuming an extension of Woody and or Lauer.

Ruiz was just an added bonus in the deal. I know I’m probably higher than most on Gasser, but from what I’ve seen and read he’s more than a backend starter. More of a future #2/#3 I’d say, and he alone makes the Hader trade worth it to me, especially since I didn’t like the teams chances post-deadline.

Ill take the bird in the hand, over the return Hader would have gotten us this offseason.

[brewers888]

11 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Heck, I would have loved to see a toolsy corner infield prospect like Jackson Merrill and a prospective franchise catcher like Campusano come back in the deal. Ruiz's skillset does seem somewhat redundant with Mitchell already at the MLB level, Frelick on the doorstep, and Chourio not far off. If you are going to deal off a piece like Hader, you should be looking for future franchise cornerstones, The Brewers BETTER see those two as those types of players, and they better have a plan for both of them contributing at the MLB level as early as next season, because if they don't, that would be an extremely disappointing outcome.

Now this is the type of response that I can respect. I hope Gasser is the next Sandy Koufax and Ruiz the next Ricky Henderson but I just don't see it.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

5 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

Now this is the type of response that I can respect. I hope Gasser is the next Sandy Koufax and Ruiz the next Ricky Henderson but I just don't see it.

You don't see that they are going to be all-time great HOF-level talents? I'm not sure that is much of a stretch. But they are both 22 year old kids in the infancy of their professional careers. There is a middle ground there that would still lead to a pretty good outcome.

Hader is a HOF-level talent. There is no disputing that at this point. It's all about what the value would be on one more year of a HOF level talent at the back of the pen, because there is no way Hader was going to be a Brewer beyond 2023. Sucks, but that's just the reality of MLB.

[Hopper]

23 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

Now this is the type of response that I can respect. I hope Gasser is the next Sandy Koufax and Ruiz the next Ricky Henderson but I just don't see it.

EXACTLY!

[Hopper]

33 minutes ago, SF70 said:

1.5 years of a commandless (at the time), expensive Hader, for another top flight closer and 2 near big-league readies was a great baseball trade. 

 

Who was the top flight closer we got in return?

Rogers?

He wasn't even closing anymore in SD because like Hader, he fell on some horrible times and was absolute crap at the time of the trade.  Unlike Hader, he remained crap after the trade, while Josh (even though he took some time to settle in) has flourished, and is now playing in the NLCS!

[Hopper]

15 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

You don't see that they are going to be all-time great HOF-level talents? I'm not sure that is much of a stretch. But they are both 22 year old kids in the infancy of their professional careers. There is a middle ground there that would still lead to a pretty good outcome.

Hader is a HOF-level talent. There is no disputing that at this point. It's all about what the value would be on one more year of a HOF level talent at the back of the pen, because there is no way Hader was going to be a Brewer beyond 2023. Sucks, but that's just the reality of MLB.

I have some faith in Gasser, and if he does in fact turn out to be a legit #2, then great.  I do not have that level of faith in Ruiz, and I don't think we needed to add another outfielder when we have so many knocking on the door. If Ruiz is so coveted by other teams, I hope we dangle him in trade offers this off season for a 3B or starting pitching, hell, maybe even bullpen help if it will get us a guy who can step in as closer or a high leverage type guy or two.

[CheezWizHed]

I'm not sure what Ruiz will turn out to be, but I know it is a fool's folly to not bring in talent because we already have talent there.  We don't know which of our OF prospects will boom and which will bust... but quite often one or more will bust - just the law of averages.   Not to mention that you need talent to trade for talent.  

DS took a chance on a mid-season trade and I think by all accounts lost (compared to trading him in the offseason).  But of course, hindsight is 20/20.... Hader recovered and looks good.  Would he have done that with the Brewers?  Maybe.  Maybe not.  They didn't get a horrible return for Hader and I don't believe Hader brings back a "generational talent" type player.  Sometimes you gamble and get burned.  

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

14 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

I'm not sure what Ruiz will turn out to be, but I know it is a fool's folly to not bring in talent because we already have talent there.  We don't know which of our OF prospects will boom and which will bust... but quite often one or more will bust - just the law of averages.   Not to mention that you need talent to trade for talent.  

DS took a chance on a mid-season trade and I think by all accounts lost (compared to trading him in the offseason).  But of course, hindsight is 20/20.... Hader recovered and looks good.  Would he have done that with the Brewers?  Maybe.  Maybe not.  They didn't get a horrible return for Hader and I don't believe Hader brings back a "generational talent" type player.  Sometimes you gamble and get burned.  

This is pretty much spot on where I'm at. Timing was bad. Terrible even. That deal was the iceberg that brought the ship down. But don't discount that the ship itself was being held together by chicken wire and duct tape. 

I have high hopes for Gasser and Ruiz. But with high hopes come high expectations. They better hit, or I fear this is going to go down in the annuls as a big reason for this era of Brewers competitiveness coming to an end.

[Hopper]

30 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

I'm not sure what Ruiz will turn out to be, but I know it is a fool's folly to not bring in talent because we already have talent there.  We don't know which of our OF prospects will boom and which will bust... but quite often one or more will bust - just the law of averages.   Not to mention that you need talent to trade for talent.  

  

I can agree with this, but once again, as we have done for YEARS, we ignore what is possibly our biggest offensive need, and that is 3B.

When is the last time we acquired a real 3B?  It's our glaring weakness, and continues to be ignored.

[CheezWizHed]

Yes, much was made of Hader being the wave that sunk the ship...but we were taking on water far before then. Yes, in first place, but not playing like a WS caliber team.  If you are in the MLB, trades happen.  You have to be a bit more resilient to trades than that... it always sounded like a convenient excuse to me

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

4 minutes ago, Hopper said:

I can agree with this, but once again, as we have done for YEARS, we ignore what is possibly our biggest offensive need, and that is 3B.

When is the last time we acquired a real 3B?  It's our glaring weakness, and continues to be ignored.

Travis Shaw. Which was 6 years ago. And Shaw was a solid get as a 26-year-old. Unfortunately his prime was very short lived.

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

 We are left with a prospective 2023 bullpen that will not have a guy who has proven to be a truly transcendent talent. 

Devin Williams??? Guy has a transcendent changeup and has been better than Hader since 2020. Unless you're just referring specifically to Hader, in which, yes, I agree. 

[CheezWizHed]

2 minutes ago, Hopper said:

I can agree with this, but once again, as we have done for YEARS, we ignore what is possibly our biggest offensive need, and that is 3B.

When is the last time we acquired a real 3B?  It's our glaring weakness, and continues to be ignored.

I'm with you here... I was upset to not see bat (1B or 3B) come back at the deadline.  But it also seems to be there far fewer legit 3B/1B than there used to be; 1B especially. And 3B always has been short on decent, consistent players at the plate.

[brewers888]

1 hour ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

You don't see that they are going to be all-time great HOF-level talents? I'm not sure that is much of a stretch. But they are both 22 year old kids in the infancy of their professional careers. There is a middle ground there that would still lead to a pretty good outcome.

Hader is a HOF-level talent. There is no disputing that at this point. It's all about what the value would be on one more year of a HOF level talent at the back of the pen, because there is no way Hader was going to be a Brewer beyond 2023. Sucks, but that's just the reality of MLB.

As you said Hader is a hall of fame level talent and that level of player with 1.5 years of control was worth far more than the Brewers received and if the market felt otherwise we should have just kept him for two more playoff runs.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

3 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

As you said Hader is a hall of fame level talent and that level of player with 1.5 years of control was worth far more than the Brewers received and if the market felt otherwise we should have just kept him for two more playoff runs.

You very well may be correct. Right now, though, it's a "we'll just have to see."

[Samurai Bucky]

34 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

I'm with you here... I was upset to not see bat (1B or 3B) come back at the deadline.  But it also seems to be there far fewer legit 3B/1B than there used to be; 1B especially. And 3B always has been short on decent, consistent players at the plate.

Keston Hiura could fit the bill, right?

[Brewcrew82]

No one contests that the deal backfired spectacularly as it pertains to this season. Though, I will note, from Stearns' perspective, that Rogers was almost as good as Hader since 2018. Yes, he was struggling a bit at the time of the trade, but so was Hader. Hard to foresee how a guy who has been so HR averse over the course of his career (including the first half of this season), would start serving them up like ice cream on a hot summer's day. Even then, Rogers still outperformed Hader post-deadline. Where the trade really hurt was its impact on team chemistry, as evidenced by the comments from Devin and Lauer. No coincidence that we played some of our worst ball in the immediate aftermath of the trade.

Where people diverge, however, is the notion that the trade is ALREADY a huge failure that should cost Stearns and Counsell their jobs. Hader, while one of the best closers in the game, had limited value as a player with only 1.5 remaining years of team control, and who was growing more expensive by the year. While we may personally feel that he should be worth more as a Hall of Fame-level talent, his value is only as good as the market is willing to pay. And that same market was only willing to give us Andujar and Frazier back in the offseason of 2020 when Hader had 4 full years of control and was at the zenith of his powers.

Really, to accurately judge the trade, we need to compare Hader's value over the last 1.5 years of team control with that which we have received/will receive from Rogers, Gasser, and Ruiz (the Lamet thing is a whole different discussion). As of right now, the trade is essentially "even", with Rogers "outproducing" Hader in WAR by .5 (they were both in negative WAR territory), but with Hader returning to form recently and powering a Padres playoff run. Now, Rogers becomes a free agent and the comparison turns to Hader, with one year of control, and Ruiz and Gasser, each with six years of control. If Hader's performance in September and October is indicative of a return to dominance going forward, then we can probably pencil him for a WAR next season of around 3.0. This essentially means that all that has to happen going forward for the scales to tip back in our favor is for Ruiz and/or Gasser to become steady to key contributors over the course of their tenure with the Brewers, or for them to be traded for such players. Considering both of their respective performances in the high minors this season and their pedigrees, this seems to be a very realistic scenario. Which is why you have people like me saying that we need to wait before we can fully adjudge the trade and pursue Stearns and co. at the stakes and with pitchforks. 

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

This is pretty much spot on where I'm at. Timing was bad. Terrible even. That deal was the iceberg that brought the ship down. But don't discount that the ship itself was being held together by chicken wire and duct tape. 

I have high hopes for Gasser and Ruiz. But with high hopes come high expectations. They better hit, or I fear this is going to go down in the annuls as a big reason for this era of Brewers competitiveness coming to an end.

I really think Hader's 6 week slump heading into the deadline pushed Stearns into making a move he might not have wanted to. If Hader hadn't slumped and was still going strong, I just don't see us making that trade. Stearns was probably planning on trading Hader this offseason, but the worry of a slump ruining his value pushed him to make the aggressive move. I still think it was the right call. Our play as a team didn't drop off after the deadline. We continued playing slightly below .500 ball like we had done the two months before the deadline.

[CheezWizHed]

1 hour ago, Samurai Bucky said:

Keston Hiura could fit the bill, right?

Or maybe see if Ryan Braun is ready for an encore tour?

[Playing Catch]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

I really think Hader's 6 week slump heading into the deadline pushed Stearns into making a move he might not have wanted to. If Hader hadn't slumped and was still going strong, I just don't see us making that trade. Stearns was probably planning on trading Hader this offseason, but the worry of a slump ruining his value pushed him to make the aggressive move. I still think it was the right call. Our play as a team didn't drop off after the deadline. We continued playing slightly below .500 ball like we had done the two months before the deadline.

I think this is a good example of some of the known-unknowns that we, as fans, have to accept when we have opinions on moves. I didn't like the move at the time, but I also recognize that there is a lot of information that I don't have, that leads Front Offices to make the decisions they do. I think it makes for good, fun discussion and debate when having opinions, but sometimes I think the emotional surety that posters demonstrate with their opinions is odd.

I also believe that we keep ignoring the salary relief for next season and the impact that may have on the potential return in a trade. It's quite possible that there are only a handful of teams that would be willing to spend $12M on a closer, no matter how transcendant. For all we know, this offer from the Padres blew out of the water any trade offer the Brewers have ever entertained for Hader.

[nate82]

2 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

I'm with you here... I was upset to not see bat (1B or 3B) come back at the deadline.  But it also seems to be there far fewer legit 3B/1B than there used to be; 1B especially. And 3B always has been short on decent, consistent players at the plate.

Both 1B and 3B is just basically a black hole after the top 5 prospects in MLB and for 1B it is basically after the top 3.  A lot of the top players at 1B are a lot like Zavier Warren.  1B is just a bunch of who all throughout baseball.  There are not that many good 1B and a lot are like Tellez.

At 3B after the top 5 you have a bunch of who are these guys?  

At 3B for trades you realistically have Jung, Baty and Vargas.  I think you can cross off Vargas from the list as I believe the Dodgers will buyout J.Turner this off season at $2m.  That means you have the Rangers and Mets as possible trade partners for a 3B.  

At 1B it isn't even worth the time looking at those players.  

[Brewcrew82]

7 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Both 1B and 3B is just basically a black hole after the top 5 prospects in MLB and for 1B it is basically after the top 3.  A lot of the top players at 1B are a lot like Zavier Warren.  1B is just a bunch of who all throughout baseball.  There are not that many good 1B and a lot are like Tellez.

At 3B after the top 5 you have a bunch of who are these guys?  

At 3B for trades you realistically have Jung, Baty and Vargas.  I think you can cross off Vargas from the list as I believe the Dodgers will buyout J.Turner this off season at $2m.  That means you have the Rangers and Mets as possible trade partners for a 3B.  

At 1B it isn't even worth the time looking at those players.  

FWIW, I don't see Vargas as a regular third-baseman. I think he's primarily a first baseman, where he's blocked by Freeman. 

[JRob1125]

This was never a World Series caliber team with their absolutely extreme boom or bust offense, and even if this trade cost us the playoffs this year, I still like.

[SF70]

4 hours ago, Hopper said:

Who was the top flight closer we got in return?

Rogers?

He wasn't even closing anymore in SD because like Hader, he fell on some horrible times and was absolute crap at the time of the trade.  Unlike Hader, he remained crap after the trade, while Josh (even though he took some time to settle in) has flourished, and is now playing in the NLCS!

Rogers coming into the year was an easy top 10 closer in the game, and while he struggled pre-deadline, his FIP & Sierra showed probable improvement moving forward, so I can’t fault the FO for wanting Rogers as part of the Hader trade package.