Is a stolen base part of slugging % or OBP

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

I looked this up and slugging looks to be only singles, doubles, triples, and home runs.  I think OBP might include walks, hit by pitch, and errors.  But shouldn't turning a walk or a single into a double or triple be considered in slugging percentage?   I say this because I like Brice Turang over Wily Adames.  Wily Adames will never be more than he is right now.  A glove first shortstop with a high slugging percentage if he hits the ball.  Now take a player like Brice Turang maybe he doesn't have a high slugging percentage but when you add in his stolen bases his slugging is comparable to other shortstops.

 

Would Vince Coleman even play with today's GM's?

[zurch1818]

Stolen bases is not directly part of slugging percentage or OBP. The only thing I can think of is that base stealers are fast, so they may have more infield singles and increase OBP. It's supposed to be a measure of hitting.

Also, errors negatively impact slugging percentage since it is equivalent to making an out. Sacrifice flies also count against OBP. You are correct in saying that HBP increases OBP.

Stolen bases do count in the stat wSB. This is a linear weight sabermetric stat that I don't think I've ever used before as it doesn't help me in fantasy baseball. The stat wOBA and xwOBA on statcast are much more useful. If you are curious, just type in a player's name on baseball savant. It shows percentile rankings, so it is a good way to start learning sabermetric stats. You will see xwOBA on there amongst others.

[nate82]

Willy Adames average and OBP is basically Turang's ceiling.  The difference between Turang and Adames is the power with Adames giving you more power.  At best I think Turang can put up a .260/.360/.380 (Average, OBP, Slugging).  That is valuable but it doesn't even come close to Adames 2021 season.  This is just a slight down year for Adames with his average but everything else looks to be about equal.  

Even if you add in Turang's stolen bases it still doesn't really come close to Adames offensive value.  Turang with the stat line I provided previously would be an extremely valuable 2B for the Brewers.  At SS right now the Brewers have a better offensive player in Adames.  

[NBBrewFan]

3 hours ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

I looked this up and slugging looks to be only singles, doubles, triples, and home runs.  I think OBP might include walks, hit by pitch, and errors.  But shouldn't turning a walk or a single into a double or triple be considered in slugging percentage?   I say this because I like Brice Turang over Wily Adames.  Wily Adames will never be more than he is right now.  A glove first shortstop with a high slugging percentage if he hits the ball.  Now take a player like Brice Turang maybe he doesn't have a high slugging percentage but when you add in his stolen bases his slugging is comparable to other shortstops.

 

Would Vince Coleman even play with today's GM's?

No stolen bases are not part of the OBP or SLG calculates. Neither are errors.  Yes, singles, doubles, triples and HR are all included in Total Bases (TB). 

Sabermetrics has an issue with SB in that you need to have a ratio of SB/CS that is higher than 2/1 (might be higher as I think there has been further analysis of the ratio where SB actually have a positive impact) before that player is providing positive running and if the ratio is lower then that player is actually doing harm.   

I don't think we should be removing Adames from the lineup just to be giving those AB to Turang. Both would provide near elite defense while we currently have hatchet men at 3B and 2B.  If the Brewers can find a 3B that can hit and field to average then I think they should put Turang at 2B and have Urias as a super utility player.  If they can't find a 3B then put Adames there and put Turang at SS with Urias taking over as starting 2B (probably could have passable defense). Sign CC to a contract that states he can't bat Adames in the top 4 of the batting order until he can get his OBP above .330 (minimum 100 PA).

Edit: in an Ideal world you put Adames at 3B and Turang at SS.  Since Willy is close to FA he would likely resist a change as it could reduce his value.  So Turang at 3B/Adames at SS until Willy hits FA or is traded.

[UpandIn]

1 hour ago, NBBrewFan said:

Sabermetrics has an issue with SB in that you need to have a ratio of SB/CS that is higher than 2/1 (might be higher as I think there has been further analysis of the ratio where SB actually have a positive impact) before that player is providing positive running and if the ratio is lower then that player is actually doing harm.   

It's higher than 2/1....IIRC, it was anything under 77%. MAYBE that's changed a little bit with the lower BA across MLB(making runs more valuable). But as last I could recall, it was just a couple points under 80 and you were hurting your team.

1 hour ago, NBBrewFan said:

I don't think we should be removing Adames from the lineup just to be giving those AB to Turang. Both would provide near elite defense while we currently have hatchet men at 3B and 2B. 

That's a bit harsh. Wong hasn't been his typical self, but a hatchet man at 2B? And Urias is terrible at SS...for whatever reason, but he's about average at 3rd. He's just generally unimpressive. Even with bad luck this year with a BABIP around .240, I agree, he'd be best served as a utility player. And I'm a big Turang fan, but I wouldn't get rid of Adames. I think he has also been the victim of a little bad luck(.263 BABIP) but more than that, he needs to keep his walk rate above 10% as it was last year. Being more selective may lead to a couple fewer HRs, but ~.260/.340 is a BIG difference than .230/.290. 

 

1 hour ago, nate82 said:

Willy Adames average and OBP is basically Turang's ceiling. 

If you're using the .232/.292 line he's putting up this year, OR the career .255/.323, either way, I think that's incredibly inaccurate when it comes to Turang's ceiling. I don't what you're basing this off of. 

Turang at 22 in AAA; .290/.360/.416

Adames at 22 in AAA; .286/.353/.412

How are we arriving at the conclusion that Turang's BEST case scenario is Willy Adames without power(particularly when the guy seems to be filling out and...adding power)? It's also leaving out Turang's speed...which was kinda the point of this thread.

 

That doesn't seem to be anywhere near his CEILING...unless you're just talking about next year. Then I'd still be inclined to disagree, but it'd make more sense to me. 

 

 

[NBBrewFan]

42 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

That's a bit harsh.

Wong is 2nd to last/last for almost every advanced fielding metric for 2B.

Urias is in the bottom 20th percentile for 3B for the advanced fielding metrics.  

They both need to be replaced with better defenders.

[UpandIn]

2 hours ago, NBBrewFan said:

Wong is 2nd to last/last for almost every advanced fielding metric for 2B.

Urias is in the bottom 20th percentile for 3B for the advanced fielding metrics.  

They both need to be replaced with better defenders.

Yes, Wong has gone through a slump defensively this year...one he seems to have bounced back from. He'd long been an elite defensive 2nd basemen. So saying we have a "hatchet man" at 2nd and based on THAT needs to be replaced, that's definitely harsh. 

Urias has basically been average or slightly below average. 0 runs saved, per fielding bible. Savant has him just slightly below. 

I'm not advocating bringing Wong back for 10M when we have Turang, but I don't think the reason we need to move on is the current level of defense(if it is, Jace has been exceptional over there). I'd GLADLY take Austin Riley and his 212M despite his defense. 

[SomewhereInTime]

Nope, and errors are not a part of OBP either.

[Robocaller]

9 hours ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

I looked this up and slugging looks to be only singles, doubles, triples, and home runs.  I think OBP might include walks, hit by pitch, and errors.  But shouldn't turning a walk or a single into a double or triple be considered in slugging percentage?   I say this because I like Brice Turang over Wily Adames.  Wily Adames will never be more than he is right now.  A glove first shortstop with a high slugging percentage if he hits the ball.  Now take a player like Brice Turang maybe he doesn't have a high slugging percentage but when you add in his stolen bases his slugging is comparable to other shortstops.

 

Would Vince Coleman even play with today's GM's?

A guy with career .324 OBP, and OPS of .664, and a negative in the field would probably get several partial seasons in the majors. At his 2-year peak, he'd be a solid starter. 

There is a stat that includes every way a player can pick up a base (including SB and SF, etc.) but I haven't seen it used recently. Can't think of what it's called; thought of total bases, but that's something else.

Willy Adames is 8th among SS in WAR (FanGraphs). Those of you who think he's not a positive are wrong.

 

[owbc]

7 hours ago, Robocaller said:

Willy Adames is 8th among SS in WAR (FanGraphs). Those of you who think he's not a positive are wrong.

 

Yep, Adames is arguably the best player on the Brewers this year. Certainly top 3. Wong and Urias are right behind him. 
 

I can’t believe we’re having this discussion. The infield is obviously the strength of this team. 1B is our weakest infield position. It’s not even close. 
 

 

[igor67]

Drifting into defense more has anybody done a team wide look at defense this year vs. last? I'm curious how much of the drop-off in pitching this year is attributable to defensive decline. I know we have some in CF as well, but I don't think anyone has objections to seeing less JBJ at the plate. The good news is that all those AAA prospects give us a lot of options for improving defensively, and at the plate.

[NBBrewFan]

1 hour ago, owbc said:

Yep, Adames is arguably the best player on the Brewers this year. Certainly top 3. Wong and Urias are right behind him. 
 

I can’t believe we’re having this discussion. The infield is obviously the strength of this team. 1B is our weakest infield position. It’s not even close. 
 

 

Brewers players and position rank based on WAR (blank is no qualifier):

The issue isn't any 1 player (we do need a decent CF and C), the issue is that Adames is the best when the Brewers need 1 or 2 better. No, the infield is not the strength. 

[sveumrules]

7 minutes ago, igor67 said:

Drifting into defense more has anybody done a team wide look at defense this year vs. last?

2021 Brewers were +61 DRS (6th), +31.1 UZR (3rd), -18 OAA (23rd) and +12.5 framing (2nd).

2022 Brewers so far are +34 DRS (10th), -0.4 UZR (17th), -1 OAA (19th) and  +8.5 framing (4th).

In the two defensive stats I put the most faith in, DRS and catcher framing, they are slightly worse but still comfortably positive.

Pretty sure UZR still eliminates shifted plays from their IF accounting which gives it limited value there and Outs Above Average has always spit out the wonkiest results to my eye, even though it should theoretically have the best framework. Also don’t believe OAA includes throwing for OF, just fielding plays.

In terms of DRS it’s mostly Wong (+6 in 2021 to -5 so far this year) and CF (+18 to +4) where they’ve lost ground.

[monty57]

Turang has been very young for his level in his time in the minors, and still posts a career .364 OBP. In Frelick’s short career, he’s posting a .405 OBP. 
 

Adames has been valuable this year, but in my opinion an OBP below .300 doesn’t belong in the two hole  

Yelich has transformed into a high OBP top-of-the-order guy, so if we can add another high-OBP guy at the top of the order with him, while moving Adames down in the order, the SLG that guys like Adames have can theoretically knock in more runs. 
 

Looking at our prospects, I think we’re going to slowly transform into a team with higher OBP and better defense, so I think we’ll look a lot different in a year or two from what we saw this year.